ENHANCED UK PRODUCTION

[Nimbus]

When the point cloud is converted to useful data, you'd be be better off with a measuring tape. A 50mm or two inch point cloud is unbelievably inaccurate, and I'd prefer to measure old skool. 

Like to try that on a Deltic cab?

 

The Nim.

[tomparryharry]

 

 

The nationalist in me wants to produce my products at home,  but the numbers don't add up. I'm not taking a wage from our enterprise, and it still doesn't work financially. Do folk actually think you press a big red button that says "class 73" and it gets made? 

 

 

 

Oooh! I don't have a 'class 73' button on my machine.

 

Is there an app I can download?

 

Dapol would have made a financial case for buying in new machines. It's not done on a whim. Is it CAPEX, or renewal? Or, are they doing model railway stuff? once the word is out, there's usually some sub-contract work going about. It's not all about model railways. If Dapol are offered work to take up machine time, and the numbers work, then you might have to wait a little longer for your prized possession.

 

Anti froth pill, anyone?

 

Ian

[Mike Storey]

Whilst staying out of the relative international costs bases debate (of which I am now even more confused), it is instructive that Dapol have chosen to enhance their UK manufacturing capability, whether that be enhanced renewal or definitive capacity increase, in-house. Hornby are also testing the UK water, and have indeed expanded it further, but solely by outsourcing.

 

I wonder how the two economic models compare?

 

Bachmann must be watching with interest, given that Kader's priorities lie entirely with the profitability of their Chinese factories.

[lyneux]

OK, back of an envelope calculation:

 

Wages in china are doubling every ~7 years at the moment (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/wages).

 

Given that the current average salary in China is around $10K / year (around 1/4 of the UK average - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_wage), then we are looking at 14 years before wages in China reach those of the UK (assuming that the current negligible wage inflation in the UK continues).

 

14 years…. that's really not very long folks!

 

 

Guy

Edited May 8, 2017 by lyneux

[Dunsignalling]

OK, back of an envelope calculation:

 

Wages in china are doubling every ~7 years at the moment (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/wages).

 

Given that the current average salary in China is around $10K / year (around 1/4 of the UK average - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_wage), then we are looking at 14 years before wages in China reach those of the UK (assuming that the current negligible wage inflation in the UK continues).

 

14 years…. that's really not very long folks!

 

 

Guy

It also assumes that Chinese wages continue to rise at the pace they have been. There's a big difference between doubling in the last seven years and doing so every seven years.

 

Something that has happened in one (or more) consecutive seven year periods up to now establishes a trend but there is no certainty that it will carry forward, any more than the more recent trend of UK wages largely stagnating can be guaranteed to continue. 

 

If those running Dapol, and the bankers advising them, believe they will, their business plans will reflect that. A problem will arise if, having made investment decisions based on these trends, either or both fail to continue at the same rate.  

 

 

John

Edited May 8, 2017 by Dunsignalling

[lyneux]

It also assumes that Chinese wages continue to rise at the pace they have been. There's a big difference between doubling in the last seven years and doing so every seven years.

 

Something that has happened in one (or more) consecutive seven year periods up to now establishes a trend but there is no certainty that it will carry forward, any more than the more recent trend of UK wages largely stagnating can be guaranteed to continue. 

 

If those running Dapol, and the bankers advising them, believe they will, their business plans will reflect that. A problem will arise if, having made investment decisions based on these trends, either or both fail to continue at the same rate.  

 

 

John

I agree it's hard to predict these things but it's proved true for at least the last 14 years. If anything, it's rising even quicker than I stated above. Graph linked below.

 

With the lack of any evidence to the contrary, it's more scientific to base one's business forecasts on existing trends that are observed (with a good amount of contingency thrown in) than guesswork.

 

Guy

 

 

 

[Mike Storey]

It also assumes that Chinese wages continue to rise at the pace they have been. There's a big difference between doubling in the last seven years and doing so every seven years.

 

Something that has happened in one (or more) consecutive seven year periods up to now establishes a trend but there is no certainty that it will carry forward, any more than the more recent trend of UK wages largely stagnating can be guaranteed to continue. 

 

If those running Dapol, and the bankers advising them, believe they will, their business plans will reflect that. A problem will arise if, having made investment decisions based on these trends, either or both fail to continue at the same rate.  

 

 

John

 

Except that I believe it is mandated by the present Chinese government that factory wages must rise by 10% per year, starting last year, for five years at least? This has been a key part of much of the debate on other threads about rising prices for Chinese factory made Hornby and Bachmann products.

[JSpencer]

Wages is one thing, skills are another.

 

China are used to churning out highly detailed RTR models. A UK manufacturer will need to build that skill set up. Simple models, made with a few parts is viable (an old UK made class 47 only has about 50 parts vs 300 for a Bachmann one).

 

Of course, we could see a change in strategy whereby you end up with a pre-painted kit and you fit most of the 300 parts yourself. I can see a period where a model costs £200 + in full RTR or £120 for just a set of parts to assemble. A few years ago, the difference between the two would have been £20 or £30 meaning no one will waste a few evenings assembling a model when you can buy it ready made. However a difference of £80 or more might.

[dpgibbons]

When China gets too expensive, production will simply shift to lower cost Asian countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia, as it already has for industries like textiles. It isn't going to come back to the UK. 

Edited May 9, 2017 by dpgibbons

[classy52]

Wages is one thing, skills are another.

 

China are used to churning out highly detailed RTR models. A UK manufacturer will need to build that skill set up. Simple models, made with a few parts is viable (an old UK made class 47 only has about 50 parts vs 300 for a Bachmann one).

 

Of course, we could see a change in strategy whereby you end up with a pre-painted kit and you fit most of the 300 parts yourself. I can see a period where a model costs £200 + in full RTR or £120 for just a set of parts to assemble. A few years ago, the difference between the two would have been £20 or £30 meaning no one will waste a few evenings assembling a model when you can buy it ready made. However a difference of £80 or more might.

 

Basically return to the Vitrains school of thought, which too be honest if it reduced the price of a loco by £20-£30 then yes I would still buy it and have fun fitting the detail.

[Phil Parker]

Basically return to the Vitrains school of thought, which too be honest if it reduced the price of a loco by £20-£30 then yes I would still buy it and have fun fitting the detail.

 

Suits me. After endless moans on here and other forums about the difficulty of putting pre-made details into pre-drilled holes, I wrote a 4 page article explaining how to do it. I could easily drag it out again and collect another fee...

[bacon butty]

This is a most interesting thread - I do get what everyone is saying but the harsh realities of the manufacturing process involved with producing RTR models is that I cannot see any mass production moving back to the UK.

 

To make it economically possible you need to run machines at least 5 days a week 24 hours a day.

 

The labour rates for anything to do with plastic moulding is sky high - 1 good toolmaker will cost you £35,000 a year, a mould technician will cost you about the same. If you are running 24 hours a day you need 3 of each...

 

The number of models produced would need to be massive, my belief is that Dapol are making more items like the wagons or other low labour items.

 

 

Sadly we do have a massive skills shortage in the UK for plastic moulding these days - I spent 16 years in a mould shop working in a factory that employed over 500 people as a trade moulder that also did tampo printing etc. the factory went bust 14 years ago. The toolroom had nearly 20 guys at its prime and we had a get together over Christmas - we have all moved on to other industries and the key thing is that all of us to a man said as much as we found the job interesting we would never go back to it as it was so tough to do and other industries paid more for less stress!

 

Stuart

[classy52]

Suits me. After endless moans on here and other forums about the difficulty of putting pre-made details into pre-drilled holes, I wrote a 4 page article explaining how to do it. I could easily drag it out again and collect another fee...

 

Hi Phil,

 

Where and when was the detailing article published, as a beginner I would be quite interested to have a read and pick up some tips.

 

Cheers

Steve

[tomparryharry]

The costs of machine 'time' are, or can be, an absolute killer on a job. I'm full of admiration for these limited batch runs of about 500, that you see from time to time. I couldn't imagine a batch run that small turning a profit. The last time I worked in a plastic injection auto shop, production runs for things like button covers, etc, ran in the 10,000+ quantity, and some jobs only came off for a wash & brush up.

 

Dapol will naturally look to have any machine, new or otherwise, working at near capacity to pay off said machine costs in the shortest time. The break points come where the margins can't cover working weekends, or working nights over weekends.

 

Ian

[SGP]

I'd welcome everything being brought back to UK ... Hornby, Dapol, EFE, Corgi, etc. I've had a lot of expensive models reduced to scrap after they were well out of guarantee and only ever in a display case .... EFE lorries turned to dust, Klein Modellbahn 1180, Hornby 31, all because of crap quality materials.

[classy52]

I'd welcome everything being brought back to UK ... Hornby, Dapol, EFE, Corgi, etc. I've had a lot of expensive models reduced to scrap after they were well out of guarantee and only ever in a display case .... EFE lorries turned to dust, Klein Modellbahn 1180, Hornby 31, all because of crap quality materials.

 

Sounds like something out of the movie 'Time Machine', you didn't go 1000 years into the future watching your models turn to dust did you???...only joking

[Roy Langridge]

I'd welcome everything being brought back to UK ... Hornby, Dapol, EFE, Corgi, etc. I've had a lot of expensive models reduced to scrap after they were well out of guarantee and only ever in a display case .... EFE lorries turned to dust, Klein Modellbahn 1180, Hornby 31, all because of crap quality materials.

Hmmm, and where will the raw materials come from?

 

Roy

[Andy Mac]

We live in a capatilst society where businesses are out to make a profit... cheap labour in china, even in 5 years time it'll still be way cheaper, and the nearly negligible costs of transportation mean there will be no mainstream stuff being made in the uk for many many years if ever.....

i do not accept that things will be made to a better quality either if they are made in the uk... that's why large chunks of the uk manufacturing sector either went burst or outsourced there work overseas.....

[Chris M]

We live in a capatilst society where businesses are out to make a profit... cheap labour in china, even in 5 years time it'll still be way cheaper, and the nearly negligible costs of transportation mean there will be no mainstream stuff being made in the uk for many many years if ever.....

i do not accept that things will be made to a better quality either if they are made in the uk... that's why large chunks of the uk manufacturing sector either went burst or outsourced there work overseas.....

There are costs that arise from dealing with a very different country on the other side of the world. How far this goes towards offsetting labour costs is open to debate. It also as to be said that the Chinese have sometimes "dumped" goods to us at below cost price. For instance some ten years ago the price for certain Chinese automotive parts was lower if buying from the UK than if buying from China. So we can never be sure if we are paying the true cost.

 

A little anecdote regarding quality. Back in 1998 when Rover was part of BMW Group the car with the lowest warranty claims in the whole group was the Rover 400, yes I know it doesn't seem likely but there you go. Obviously BMW didn't mention this but it shows we can do quality in the UK.

[Phil Parker]

Hi Phil,

 

Where and when was the detailing article published, as a beginner I would be quite interested to have a read and pick up some tips.

 

Cheers

Steve

 

Hornby Magazine - October 2009.

[classy52]

Th

 

Hornby Magazine - October 2009.

 

Thanks, that's why I missed it...time to buy the back issue.

[Mike Storey]

There are costs that arise from dealing with a very different country on the other side of the world. How far this goes towards offsetting labour costs is open to debate. It also as to be said that the Chinese have sometimes "dumped" goods to us at below cost price. For instance some ten years ago the price for certain Chinese automotive parts was lower if buying from the UK than if buying from China. So we can never be sure if we are paying the true cost.

 

A little anecdote regarding quality. Back in 1998 when Rover was part of BMW Group the car with the lowest warranty claims in the whole group was the Rover 400, yes I know it doesn't seem likely but there you go. Obviously BMW didn't mention this but it shows we can do quality in the UK.

 

Honda, Toyota, Nissan, and even BMW, would seem to agree with that.

 

Whilst I have no argument that there is a skills shortage in the UK, across a wide range of industries, I recall a similar debate some time ago, that concluded it was not a technical skills shortage that was the main problem in the UK (although it is a problem, but involving a relatively low number of additionally trained staff), for mass model train production, but the willingness or ability of many Brits to sit, hour after hour, at minimum wage probably, doing seriously repetitive, relatively simple tasks but very accurately, as is required for the bulk of detailing of modern models. Even if costs could begin to approach parity, this factor was apparently a major part of the decision to off-shore. Of course, relative costs was the main factor, and still remains so, for now.

[justin1985]

This reminded me of this very interesting video from Fleischmann, which shows their new factory in Romania (and mentions that they also have factories in Slovakia and Austria). The commentary is in German, but you can turn the subtitles on and then click the gear to turn on automatic translation to English.

 

 

Its very illuminating seeing the full production process. They even comment in the video that staff are "young and motivated, even though wages are comparatively low".

 

In a similar video from Märklin the workers describe their individual tasks (from about 6:00 onward)

 

https://youtu.be/4kreylMrBUc

 

Food for thought!

 

Justin