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Competition in the UK RTR model rail market


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All fascinating stuff, but if any "copying" did happen, it was an awful long time ago, and not necessarily by who one might instinctively blame. In any event, I doubt any of the parties could unravel all of the 1980/90s to-ing and fro-ing, even if they any of them were that bothered.

It is unravelled in the Ramsays British Model Trains Catalogue. Yes you are right about tooling passing between ranges and confusion sets in due to Dapol buying up the Mainline stock in the Palitoy warehouse; most of which  were from Kader owned tooling that they did not have access to, being then used for Replica and later Bachmann.

 

The other toolings passed between ranges thus:

Airfix - Palitoy (Mainline) - Dapol - Hornby (most but not all)

Meccanno (Hornby Dublo) - Wrenn (except the 81 which went to Triang-Hornby) - Dapol - Mordvale (except for wagon bodies retained by Dapol)

Lima - Hornby

 

Prior to acquiring the Airfix toolings Dapol made a number of copies starting out with ones of the 5 & 7 planks and  Conflat & Container; the latter was fortuitous as the Airfix Container tooling had been lost and was never received by Dapol.

 

Finding they did not have access to Kader tools they made a duplicate of Mainline 14T Tank Wagon in 1985 and the GW Mogo & Vent Van in 1991. In 1995 a copy was made of the Lima PCA Presflo. These were sold in 1996 to Hornby along with the copy of the Airfix Conflat and Container and one of 5 & 7 plank toolings.

 

Subsequent to the 1996 sale, and by the mid 2000s, they had made toolings for the "Airfix" 21T Hopper, 20T steel mineral & NE 20T 9 plank, along with a container to use with the Airfix Conflat tooling, and also a copy of the Kader( Mainline/Replica/Bachmann) 12T/24T Ore Hopper

Edited by Butler Henderson
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Just in terms of population the UK would rank 5th in model railway markets (US, Japan, Germany, and barely France are larger) but when you consider the percentage of the population in the hobby it is likely the the UK comes in 2nd.  The lack of accurate numbers make comparisons difficult but the evidence - number of magazines, number of shows, number of retailers, and now number of products all show a hobby that is a lot larger than in other countries.

 

Not a good guide, I'm afraid. The Philippines, Iran, Brazil and some others would rank well ahead, if you used those metrics, and clearly they do not. You presumably mean to use what we generally term "developed countries" in your estimate. China has become a major model railway domestic market, but we simply do not have the figures.

 

The one market I do have some greater knowledge about, France, is not the same as the UK, by any measure. It has a (recently growing) hard core of magazines, which differ from the UK in that most are a mix of real life and modelling. The number of MR exhibitions is slowly growing. But it is definitely a smaller MR market, albeit willing to accept higher prices in many respects. The French, despite their touristic reputation, do not have the same affinity for the past as the UK. But what has been noticeable lately, is that MR specialists, in the main scales, have been multiplying their offers in laser-cut, 3D printing, and in downloadable models. There are also a plethora of non-French suppliers of French models, in many eras, particularly high price Swiss models, but increasingly German, Italian and Spanish (including Hornby) players. This is something the UK does not yet have (apart from the new Irish and continuing Danish entrants).

 

British railway modelling remains a significant market, but it is also a very specialised one to enter. IRM have to be congratulated for giving it a go.

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I have found that if you talk to German people it is not uncommon to meet railway modellers (more often as not Marklin), ditto for Japanese people. Those are the only two nationalities other than British where I've found it quite normal to find others with an interest in model railways. I've encountered very few North American modellers and even when I visit countries like Belgium and the Netherlands with very well developed rail systems and reasonable availability of local models I've encountered very few railway modellers. Maybe it's because most of the people I meet are in the maritime sector, but then again most of the German and Japanese people I know also work in maritime and there is no shortage of railway modellers and there are loads of railway modellers working in the maritime sector in the UK. Purely personal experience of course.

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I have found that if you talk to German people it is not uncommon to meet railway modellers (more often as not Marklin), ditto for Japanese people. Those are the only two nationalities other than British where I've found it quite normal to find others with an interest in model railways. I've encountered very few North American modellers and even when I visit countries like Belgium and the Netherlands with very well developed rail systems and reasonable availability of local models I've encountered very few railway modellers. Maybe it's because most of the people I meet are in the maritime sector, but then again most of the German and Japanese people I know also work in maritime and there is no shortage of railway modellers and there are loads of railway modellers working in the maritime sector in the UK. Purely personal experience of course.

 

I have no experience of Japanese, or German, Dutch or Belgians come to think of it, willingness to expose their affinity to our hobby. Here in France, apart from UK expats taking the proverbial, it is regarded with surprise, but rarely a real interest, as opposed to an opportunity to take the mick.

 

What does surprise me therefore, is the expansion of technically superb models in both Holland and France, via a select number of specialists. That also applies to the UK, but it seems to lag behind what is being achieved elsewhere? Is that fair?

 

I only cite outfits like Artitec, whose equivalent is probably York Model Makers. Artitec have produced many dozens of prototypical and actual laser cut models of French prototypes and scratch-builders' pieces across all regions of France, and have been, reportedly, very successful in sales, but at a price. York provide similar levels of verisimilitude, but with, as yet, a much more limited range. If the relevant size of markets are so much more in favour of York (albeit competition in the UK is greater), and sales and other taxes are much greater in France, I wonder what is driving the relative approaches?

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I always wonder just how many UK enthusiasts are modellers, how many are collectors, how many are operators and how many are modellers or operators with an addiction to buying stuff they never remove from the box. I don't want to go down that path of dismissing anybody who doesn't scratch build GWR broad gauge or Batavian narrow gauge sugar cane railways as not being true modellers but modelling and collecting are two very different hobbies and some people just like operating trains. I suspect that the collector segment is a much bigger part of the model train hobby than most who define themselves as modellers would care to admit and that when it comes to RTR locomotives the collector segment is critical to suppliers. Which could result in the market being very heavily weighted towards locomotives at the expense of scenics and modelling materials.

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I think you have to look at the UK in much broader terms .certainly 10-15 years ago you had the big two Hornby and Bachmann , but you also had the model railway press ,Railway Modeller , Model Rail etc that towed the line . It was all fairly closed , incestuous even. I think genuinely it was a Gentleman’s club where no one said anything detrimental,about the other. A closed community.

 

It’s now been blown apart . Yes we still have the big magazines, although probably circulation is falling ,but we also have YouTube , Facebook groups and Forums like this one that spread information widely and give the individual Modeller a voice. The wide base of modelling now have a voice they never had before. Some people , particularly in the media don’t like that.

 

At the same time you’ve seen new companies recognising that there is money to be made by supplying people, ironically capitalising on the process followed by the big two ie manufacturing in China. Why wait for Hornby or Bachmann to do it when you can do it directly yourself. A new direct route straight to the enthusiast ,I’m thinking Accurascale, Revolution here , along with retailers such as Hattons and Kernow. Perhaps an unfortunate( for the established manufacturers) conséquence of moving offshore. I think also Hattons to some extent being starved of new models were forced to go down this route . Initially Hornby supply difficulties but now Bachmann , if they are even continuing to supply them. Bachman if they have cut them off might regret that in the fullness of time.

 

So the market has changed . It’s much more diversified and reaches to the grass routes more than ever before. So I think it’s the better for it . Hornby are attacking it head on , particularly in their 2019 range. Good models , varied range,reasonable prices . Bachmann,starved of resources from Kader , have chosen to go high tech, lower volume, high price to generate more income per unit leaves a gap for others to fill. . DJM are idealistic, suffer from lack of focus and are lacking credibility as we move from one model that’s flavour of the month to another, currently it’s the APT. But you are now seeing Accurascale and Hattons coming in producing models at a higher detail and lower (very slightly) price level. Enables them to keep manufacturers and retailers profit margin. Sorry I’m an OO Modeller , so thinking primarily about it, but I think the same is true for N with Accurascale.

 

For O the prices of OO have risen so much, while the prices of O have come down that a new market has opened up. We are therefor seeing more manufacturers Heljan, Dapol and Hattons dabbling there. More margin to be made. O still has a significant disadvantage though ..... space . So while manufacturers can make a bigger margin out of O and are attracted to it, it’s probably ultimately limited.

 

So I see the future as lots of smaller manufacturers supplying models . I genuinely hope that Hornby make it through by being a bit more nimble and supplying models that people want in the quantities they want. Alone amongst the manufacturers new or old Hornby supply the full range, track to trainset and everything between. They have goodwill. Many of us remember the thrill of opening red boxes in our youth. If they get it right, and 2019 shows positive omens they can flourish. It may be that technology moves on (3d printing?) enabling more bespoke and lower quantities to be produced economically. I may yet get my 126 Swindon Ayrshire unit! Coupled with direct manufacturer- consumer interaction, the future is certainly interesting but the big two domination has ended.

Edited by Legend
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Coming back briefly to the point about manufacturers agreeing who will produce what and leaving aside the illegality of carving up a market like that, the one other - and not insignificant - objection would be that when the next round of price increases came round, you can be sure that there would be many here and elsewhere who would accuse them of price fixing at the same time as they agreed who made which model.  So would you be happy to accept a lack of duplication at the cost of higher prices?

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Market saturation?

 

I'm not sure anyone has raised this possibility in the above, but as I see the announcements, read the reviews in RM, and read the "Confessions of a Stasher" thread here, I do wonder if it is a possibility, in mainstream 00 at least.

 

The suppliers seem to be quite clever at avoiding it, by moving into "industrials', and there is a near-infinity of prototype locomotives, carriages, and wagons left to "do", and the re-mastering to a higher standard thing is taking-off, but still, I do wonder.

 

What could, of course, put the brakes on is a significant change in interest rates, which would probably severely curtail the optional spending a a lot of mortgage-payers, as well as increasing costs for suppliers to some degree.

 

An interesting spectator sport!

Potential market saturation, undoubtedly.

 

My own position will not be unique in that I have enough models in the cupboard to stock any and every layout I am ever likely to construct (several times over) and the number of "must have" new introductions is relatively small for me, simply because so much of my lifetime wish-list has already been fulfilled.

 

As an example, my primary modelling interest is BR Southern Region, ex-LSWR territory, non-electrified, c1960. Hornby have produced appropriate items for me that I never expected, in my wildest dreams, to see made in r-t-r form. I have responded by buying everything I want. Indeed , if I am honest, far more than I'll ever need.  

 

Many years ago, when anything Southern becoming available was a cause for unbridled rejoicing and leapt upon with a relative lack of discrimination. I had a Sir Dinadan, converted to a reasonable approximation of an S15, until I could afford a DJH kit (I never did), and an L1 because it would do until I got round to building a T9 (still unmade and I have three Hornby ones). My old "train set" 3F became a 700 courtesy of Bec and a Dapol Terrier and Tri-ang E2 did duty because they were at least Southern and less inappropriate than a Jinty or J52. Both later replaced with a Bachmann Ivatt tank which (for an East Devon boy of my vintage) is a Southern engine. I will confess to refinishing an only-slightly-modified J83, acquired for next to nothing, as a G6, too, that later displaced by a more respectable HD/Wills one.

 

In recent times, no such chicanery has been necessary but, where a Bachmann C and E4 would once have been snapped up and "excused", I ignored both because I can have the "proper" 700, M7, O2 or Radial instead. In that sense, I suppose, market saturation of a kind has occurred, for me. The Brighton Atlantic is, however, irresistible and mine will be "justified" by the addition of a RCTS headboard. :angel: .

 

I didn't think I'd be buying more than a couple of new items in 2019, and was expecting to concentrate on some "gap-filling" via pre-owned purchases.

 

Hornby put a stop to that idea last week. Yippee. Market saturation? Not quite yet....  :sungum:

 

John

Edited by Dunsignalling
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Not that I'm disagreeing (I don't know enough about the subject to do that), I think it's only fair to point out that, as per your point about things not being equal, US modellers are more likely overall to have very large layouts, taking advantage of the footprint size cellar than most merkan houses have, with large numbers of locomotives and rolling stock;

 

Another topic that is frequently discussed, and the guesses are that is a false assumption propagated in part by the biases of Model Railroader magazine.

 

There are significant parts of the US where houses don't have basements, and there are also significant parts of the population who don't live in houses at all or if they do they are small due to price.  Much like the UK has with London, most of the major US/Canada population centres have their own property price issues that has driven a general decrease living space (or alternately, in buying the space no longer having the money for a hobby).

 

The other factor, which can be seen in the real estate shows of the last 20 years, is even when an American house has a basement it is no longer "unfinished" and available for takeover by a model railway empire.  Most new houses now come with finished basements, and most existing houses have had the basements renovated, to provide additional general living space for play rooms, media rooms, etc. and thus it is harder to get the proverbial household approval for a large layout.

 

So while the huge basement layouts do exist, it is likely they aren't as common as many seem to think.

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I always wonder just how many UK enthusiasts are modellers, how many are collectors, how many are operators and how many are modellers or operators with an addiction to buying stuff they never remove from the box. I don't want to go down that path of dismissing anybody who doesn't scratch build GWR broad gauge or Batavian narrow gauge sugar cane railways as not being true modellers but modelling and collecting are two very different hobbies and some people just like operating trains. I suspect that the collector segment is a much bigger part of the model train hobby than most who define themselves as modellers would care to admit and that when it comes to RTR locomotives the collector segment is critical to suppliers. Which could result in the market being very heavily weighted towards locomotives at the expense of scenics and modelling materials.

 

This is a very good point, and begs the question of how exactly one defines 'modeller' and 'collector'.  The two overlap to some extent; if you are someone who regards themselves as a 'modeller' (and my definition of that includes anyone who seeks to make their models as realistic as they can within their ability), but own more stock and especially more locos than you need to run your layout (who doesn't!), then you are in some measure a collector.  If you are a collector who runs his models in a way which is intended to replicate real railway operation, however haphazardly and inexpertly, you are a modeller.

 

Compleximacated, innit?

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IMHO, the two terms will overlap. I'd guess it just happens where you are in the general scheme of things. Right now I'm a collector, pure & simple. However... Shed building starts this year... Once that happens, goodbye keyboard, hello layout.

 

I'm collected out about now. The limit has arrived. I'm not blind to anything new, but it will have to 'grab' me. The new Collet suburbans are a no-brainer, just like the Peckett 6-wheeler. Past that... Well, really? There are some items I've publicly said "I'll have that", and I'll stand to my word.

 

By the same token, some models have missed the boat. It's not the fault of the producers, it's just where the demographic has changed. Larger producers will cotton onto this, and by & large, the collector will become the more prominent segment of the hobby.

 

Competition in the market? Yes, certainly. If I was in the production game, I'd be worried about a new entrant on the market, who can (and will) undercut the competition with equal quality & fidelity. Every time a percentage increase arrives, so does the attractiveness of the market. Gate prices are an open secret to those in the know, and many the time I've been to a meeting where the chief exec asks "What can we make this for?" There's an awful lot of low hanging fruit...

 

Happy modelling (or, collecting),

 

Ian.

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.... I suspect that the collector segment is a much bigger part of the model train hobby than most who define themselves as modellers would care to admit and that when it comes to RTR locomotives the collector segment is critical to suppliers. Which could result in the market being very heavily weighted towards locomotives at the expense of scenics and modelling materials.

 Which is exactly what we observe. Talk to retailers in a quiet moment and see if they will be indiscreet! One that I saw regularly when re-entering the hobby - unfortunately no longer trading in 4mm - made the observation to me that I was a rare bird. His reason? I spent more on track and rolling stock than locomotives.

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Wasn't there a large-participation straw poll on RMWeb last year, which, among other things, explored this question of "collecting" vs "modelling"?

 

One thing that I would observe is that an awful lot of people in the hobby (the majority?) both 'model' (using that term in the broad sense of someone who makes or builds a layout and/or at least some of the elements of it, rather than a very narrow sense of someone who builds almost everything from scratch, kits, or hefty modification) and, almost accidentally, find themselves stashing or hoarding, as an insurance against future non-availability.

 

There are probably also a fair few habitual stashes/hoarders, people who 'simply buy stuff', as well as people who 'collect' in a genuinely targeted way (all LNER locos, for instance).

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 Which is exactly what we observe. Talk to retailers in a quiet moment and see if they will be indiscreet! One that I saw regularly when re-entering the hobby - unfortunately no longer trading in 4mm - made the observation to me that I was a rare bird. His reason? I spent more on track and rolling stock than locomotives.

 

The BLT may be partly responsible for this.  Mine needs about 10 locos to work the timetable and cover boiler washouts and works visits, but can get by with no more than 6 passenger coaches, and were it not for the colliery workings, about 20 freight vehicles.  I have the requisite number of locos, and am in the process of replacing older and unsuitable passenger stock with Comet kits; I will spring for a couple of Hornby Collett suburbans when they turn up!  I am also awaiting the Baccy 94xx (sorry, Andy); any more locos than this is Rule 1 territory.  

 

And being a BLT, I haven't spent massive amounts on track, though relaying with chaired code 75 is a possibility.  In short, my personal impact on the market is negligible and irrelevant to any manufacturer's sales figures, but there are a lot of people like me and they skew the figures.

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Competition is, and always has been a double edged sword when it comes to retailing. Where that competition means we get an updated product with better detail clearly the consumer wins, and as has occured in the past with Hornby, it provides a kick up the backside for companies that have been simply coasting along and not investing in R&D.

 

However competition where two companies are retailing identical products is usually bad - it results in less revenue for all manufacturers (and thus less to spend in R&D) while also making things confusing for consumers who lack a clear cut reason to go with one product or another. Previous model railway examples include Hornby & Bachmann with a super detailed 4MT plus Oxford and Hornby with the Adams Radial.

 

The key therefore is to ensure that company A produces something much better than company B safe in the knowledge that company A isn't also working on updating their offering.

 

Fortunately due to the relatively small size size of the model railway sector and the way many folk from one company also know their counterparts from others or both have a mutual 3rd party connection (frequently in the social as well as business terms) 'suggestions like' "It might be better to concentrate on loco X rather than loco Y" can be used to steer companies away from outright duplication.

Edited by phil-b259
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Wasn't there a large-participation straw poll on RMWeb last year, which, among other things, explored this question of "collecting" vs "modelling"?

 

One thing that I would observe is that an awful lot of people in the hobby (the majority?) both 'model' (using that term in the broad sense of someone who makes or builds a layout and/or at least some of the elements of it, rather than a very narrow sense of someone who builds almost everything from scratch, kits, or hefty modification) and, almost accidentally, find themselves stashing or hoarding, as an insurance against future non-availability.

 

There are probably also a fair few habitual stashes/hoarders, people who 'simply buy stuff', as well as people who 'collect' in a genuinely targeted way (all LNER locos, for instance).

 

The answer is in many ways first define 'collecting'.  I  overheard a chap at the St evenage showing saying he had 22 Deltics - one of each - and his aim was to have one of each in each of the liveries it had carried.  That can i think be well and truly defined as 'collecting' in that it is an organised approach to assembling examples to complete a particular theme.  I used to know a chap who was a Hornby R number collector - didn't matter what it was, he required an example of every single item n by R number as Hornby issued it and had a standing order with a (lucky) retailer to supply him with that as each new item appeared.  So assembling a collection of whatevers to suit a certain theme is n my view very much definable as collecting.  equally I suppose a collector could be buying an example of every diesel outline loco in a particular scak le or so on.

 

Rather different then is the acquirer - probably the area into which most of who in this hobby are called 'collectors' actually fall but who are really acquiring models, albeit sometimes to a theme but often not, because they like them or the models are attractive.  There is also a variant of the 'acquirer' who is building up stocks and holdings of locos and rolling stock against the day his/her ultimate layout idea is up and running or is simply doing the same for a layout which already exists - so basically a 'targetted acquirer'.  Then there are the novelty acquirers' who acquire things because they are new or because they have some sort of particular appeal or novelty,  basically a sort of acquirer with less discretion perhaps.

 

Many of us are probably a mixture, to varying extents, of these different sorts or definitions of ' an acquirer' and I suspect there are in reality  only a relatively small proportion out there who really are collectors in the wider and more generally used sense of the word outside the land of model railways. Overall I don't doubt that acquirers, in various forms, represent the bulk of the r-t-r market and that real collectors are only a very small part of, as the failure of some very specifically collector targetted items with other than wholly model railway content has shown over the years.

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Although it could easily be taken to mean exactly the same (just how many angels can you get on the head of a pin? :jester:  )

 

One way of looking it perhaps is whether the purchaser ever intends to actually run the locomotive, or just display it as a static model. I'd find it hard to see the latter as anything other than a collector.

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 Which is exactly what we observe. Talk to retailers in a quiet moment and see if they will be indiscreet! One that I saw regularly when re-entering the hobby - unfortunately no longer trading in 4mm - made the observation to me that I was a rare bird. His reason? I spent more on track and rolling stock than locomotives.

 

But in a sense, here we may have chicken and egg.  I think that statement (buying lots of locos and little of others) might well apply to me.

 

I have built the layout - more accurately built the baseboards and laid most of the track.  I will not be buying more track.

I bought the Bachmann CC GCR 2-8-0 and 0-6-0 but could only get one set of GCR wagons - of which 1 is a dubious GCR, one CLC and one LNER.

          So I have had to scratch build a brake van.  I have built various kits of PO wagons that would have been seen on the GCR and I have sourced (largely second hand) a number of GCR wagons to be built.  I have also built a 10t brake van from scratch.

I bought the GCR director but no coaches to be had.

          So I have kit built a number of GCR coaches from producers no longer in business.  D&S, Rod Neep etc.

I bought an SECR C Class and to be fair also a rake of birdcage coaches although the more normal traffic for a C Class would have been freight.

I also bought the Hornby H Class.

          So I have had to source a number of SECR coach kits - several now unavailable - to make up suitable passenger rakes.  I have sourced a second hand LCDR brake but am struggling to find suitable wagons - so that looks like a scratch build challenge.

I bought the LYR 2-4-2T but stock to run with it?

          So I have some LYR coaches from Wizard to build  and I need to plan a freight rake some of which may be available from the trade as kits.

I bought the Stirling Single and the C Class GNR Atlantic. but no stock to go with either

          So I am building Bill's Mouza Howlden coaches and have a rake of Trice 6 wheelers in the build plan for this year.

I have bought a LBSCR E4 and H1 (to go with an ancient terrier) but no stock to go with them.

          So I have built a number of wagon kits and a couple of coach kits from producers no longer in business.  I still have a suitable brake van as a project in sight but not finalised.

 

If you asked a rtr trader about my buying pattern, it would look very loco heavy with little stock to go with it and no track for a long period of time..

If you looked at my rtr model collection it might well look like that of a collector or acquirer.  In fact if you looked at the completed model collection you might come to a similar conclusion.

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I guess there is some point to this academic discussion, although I struggled at first.

 

If the majority of buyers of locos, units or whatever, are primarily concerned with display (or just having them in a box somewhere), then any issues about running qualities are reduced to those who try to run them on a layout, at all or regularly. This could mean that manufacturers can genuinely claim that they have had relatively few complaints about such problems, as a percentage of models sold, and they would not be being untruthful. Ring any bells??

 

What you do with your acquisition, paid for by your hard-earned, is entirely a matter for you,and no-one else should criticise, including me. But manufacturers/retailers should at least recognise the distortion (if the claim is true) to the market, in terms of reported mechanical reliability, that this might cause. It may well be that, such is the collector market, that the reliability issue is not a bottom line deal for some makers. Perhaps we can detect the difference between those manufacturers that have significantly improved upon the functionality of their new-born, and those that have chosen to do very little.

 

Many of us are in the business of a kinetic art form. The rest are just art collectors. Fine for them, not that great for the rest of us, except for the very big elephant in the room - without the collectors, we probably would not have the enormous selection of models that we do now. So, please carry on collecting and I will live with my occasional duff mechanism, pi$$ poor collectors and bits falling off.......If it looks right, I'll stick it in a siding.  :O

Edited by Mike Storey
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...If the majority of buyers of locos, units or whatever, are primarily concerned with display (or just having them in a box somewhere), then any issues about running qualities are reduced to those who try to run them on a layout, at all or regularly. This could mean that manufacturers can genuinely claim that they have had relatively few complaints about such problems, as a percentage of models sold, and they would not be being untruthful. Ring any bells??

I am pretty convinced that most RTR OO locos never turn a wheel, maybe a test when acquired at the most, but thereafter in the box or on a shelf or in a display case. So much s/h I have purchased has no visible wear on tyres, and I have hit on non runners with trivial faults that made them so: and in my opinion no attempt ever made to rectify, so this presumably was of no concern to the owner and probably they were not even aware of it.

 

Likewise in the opinion that collecting has contributed significantly to the choice now available. I'll accept the trade this implies.

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