HS2 under review

[The Stationmaster]

The technical headway is no doubt less than 3min, not least because trains joining/leaving at Birmingham will have to use a somewhat slower junction.  But it would have to be below 90s to allow a train making a stop at Calvert to drop back onto the main line without taking up another path. 

 

I don't see how skip-stopping is relevant when there is only one stop to skip (and the stopping penalty is about 6min where the service interval is only 3min).  Everything will stop at Old Oak, where there will be two platforms in each direction used alternately.  Some trains will join and leave the platform loops at Birmingham Interchange, but from there there are four tracks to where the Birmingham branch splits off so the timetable can be arranged so that, for example, the train 6min after a London-Interchange-Birmingham is a London-nonstop-North.  The two trains will run almost in parallel north of the Interchange but will not conflict with each other.  There is no such luxury at Calvert - if a train stops there will have to be a gap in the service about 6min later to allow it to re-join the main line, unless trains stop every 6min. 

 

Oxford to the north might be marginally quicker via Birmingham, depending on how easy it is to transfer between the Birmingham stations and how well the trains connect, but I really can't see a collection of relatively small time savings on relatively small markets justifying a high speed station and knocking down the service frequency on the busiest part of HS2.  A decent service of fast trains between Reading and Old Oak will create a viable alternative for Reading-Birmingham (and beyond), releasing some capacity on the existing route, and whatever replaces the Voyagers should have more seats in the same train length. 

 

6 minutes is exactly double 3 minutes - voila, a skip stop is a perfectly straightforward thing to arrange (I do of course speak from the practical experience of constructing a timetable including skip stops and what's more a timetable which actually works in practice).  You mentioned 'firebreaks' which presumably will be unused paths so if they are provided skip stops need not necessarily use capacity that was otherwise used - it all depends on the shape of the timetable.  And it is hardly a difficult task for experienced timetabling staff to build a service around skip stops.

 

As you have mentioned HS2 is already planning to provide stops at Old Oak Common - stops which will inevitably consume a lot of time due to deceleration and acceleration due to their proximity to the terminus at Euston and added to that the implication that GWR/successor Main Line Trains will also call at Old Oak Common indicates its present tight Main line timetable will be hit as well (much more logical not to provide main line platforms on the GWML - they would appear too offer nothing connection wise in any case.   all that the Old oak Common stop would appear to offer is connections between HS 2 and Crossrail with the latter offering a link to Heathrow - which to be honest is hardly going to be attractive to travellers from Birmingham and certain parts of the north west who have airports on their doorstep or readily accessible by private car or taxi.  The Crossrail link into/from London is obviously the most attractive part of the interchange but even then I would wonder about its attraction for long distance passengers with heavy luggage although it might appeal to the business traveller but that does not suggest any need for platforms on the GWML Main Lines (which could not be used by Crossrail trains anyway in the event of the Reliefs being closed due to lack of capacity let alone suitable connections).

 

Seems really that strategic thought in one part of govt doesn't sit too easily with strategic thought elsewhere in Govt with HS2 neglecting to serve a major stretch of development for tens of thousands of people who will have little alternative if travelling northwards once many traditional route services are transferred to HS 2.

[Joseph_Pestell]

 

Seems really that strategic thought in one part of govt doesn't sit too easily with strategic thought elsewhere in Govt

 

Well, that's nothing new.

[lmsforever]

Latest issue Modern Rilways has an item about a slow down in applying for phase 2b bill in the north because of revising links with rest of network ,delay of a year mentioned its all to do with the Northern Powerhouse 

[GoingUnderground]

The problem at St Pancras, in my experience, seems to be limited space for people to wait for the East Midlands trains, combined with quite late announcements of departures, which are often grouped together with trains 5 minutes apart.

 

So you get a scrum, as people stand in a big crowd in front of the barriers, and then half of them want to board their train whilst the other half want to stay where they are whilst boredly looking at the departure board. It also doesn't help that sometimes two trains use the same platform, leading to more chaos. Kings Cross is way better, as there's a vast area to wait in. . 

 

Personally I think the best solution would be to raft over the section of the undercroft immediately behind the first escalator and extend the MML concourse back by 100 feet, at the expense of making the shopping centre underneath less light and airy. 

Whilst I totally agree with you as to the causes of the problems, I don't think replacing the floor over the undercroft will make matters any better. Folks will still stand in front of the barriers, eager to get a seat when their train is shown.. I really can't see them standing around in an enlarged waiting area further away from the barriers, especially if there's no seating. There's already a lot of waiting space further away from the barriers beyond the escalators, but no one waits there, at least not when I've come in and out of STP.

 

What might help is putting additional MML departure boards further away from the gates so that people didn't all have to crowd round them to see them, and also forming the two Class 222 sets serving the consecutive Sheffield or Derby and Nottingham services into a single train and splitting it somewhere en route, like Luton Parkway, Bedford, or even Leicester into its two separate destinations. If that gave a longer boarding time it would help as sometimes there is only as little as 5 minutes between the platform being shown and the departure time. The French run many TGV sets like this and split them so the two halves serve different destinations and it seems to work for them.

[melmerby]

The design for the station in Brum looks good and in keeping with the new project and I think the passengers will be happy using it but onward into town will be a trial.

Apart from the mentioned distance to the Bull Ring, (straight along Moor Street and cross at the pedestrian lights by the ex GWR station) there is also to be a dedicated pedestrian route from Curzon Street/Moor Street stations to New Street station.

And if you want to walk to the High Street area it's just across Moor Street and up Albert Street.

 

Keith

[Edwin_m]

6 minutes is exactly double 3 minutes - voila, a skip stop is a perfectly straightforward thing to arrange (I do of course speak from the practical experience of constructing a timetable including skip stops and what's more a timetable which actually works in practice).  You mentioned 'firebreaks' which presumably will be unused paths so if they are provided skip stops need not necessarily use capacity that was otherwise used - it all depends on the shape of the timetable.  And it is hardly a difficult task for experienced timetabling staff to build a service around skip stops.

 

As you have mentioned HS2 is already planning to provide stops at Old Oak Common - stops which will inevitably consume a lot of time due to deceleration and acceleration due to their proximity to the terminus at Euston and added to that the implication that GWR/successor Main Line Trains will also call at Old Oak Common indicates its present tight Main line timetable will be hit as well (much more logical not to provide main line platforms on the GWML - they would appear too offer nothing connection wise in any case.   all that the Old oak Common stop would appear to offer is connections between HS 2 and Crossrail with the latter offering a link to Heathrow - which to be honest is hardly going to be attractive to travellers from Birmingham and certain parts of the north west who have airports on their doorstep or readily accessible by private car or taxi.  The Crossrail link into/from London is obviously the most attractive part of the interchange but even then I would wonder about its attraction for long distance passengers with heavy luggage although it might appeal to the business traveller but that does not suggest any need for platforms on the GWML Main Lines (which could not be used by Crossrail trains anyway in the event of the Reliefs being closed due to lack of capacity let alone suitable connections).

 

Seems really that strategic thought in one part of govt doesn't sit too easily with strategic thought elsewhere in Govt with HS2 neglecting to serve a major stretch of development for tens of thousands of people who will have little alternative if travelling northwards once many traditional route services are transferred to HS 2.

The firebreaks are unused paths, two per hour I think, provided to allow recovery from disruption (eg a late train can use them without delaying all later trains until the end of the day).  If you use one for a train calling at Calvert then it's no longer serving as a firebreak.  A delayed train with no path would have to travel to Calvert in the first half of the firebreak path then wait 24min for the rest of the path. 

 

So ignoring the firebreaks there will be trains every 3min.  If one of then stops, how do you re-start it without having an unused path a few minutes after the original path?  Am I missing something here?  How do you arrange calls at Calvert without each one costing an extra path? 

 

The Old Oak stop doesn't cost as much time as a Calvert stop would, because being so close to Euston trains would be passing more slowly if they didn't stop than they would at Calvert. 

[APOLLO]

London London London - Who wants to go to London ?

 

 

When HS2 finally gets to it's REAL ultimate destination, Wigan, Londoners can be here in just over an hour have a few beers at Wigan in the bar underneath Wigan North Western station before zooming back home !!.

 

 

Some nice beers, pies are bit "iffy" though  !!!

 

https://www.wigancentral.bar/on-the-bar.html

 

Why the A4 in the window though ?

 

Brit15

Edited October 11, 2018 by APOLLO

[phil-b259]

6 minutes is exactly double 3 minutes - voila, a skip stop is a perfectly straightforward thing to arrange (I do of course speak from the practical experience of constructing a timetable including skip stops and what's more a timetable which actually works in practice).  You mentioned 'firebreaks' which presumably will be unused paths so if they are provided skip stops need not necessarily use capacity that was otherwise used - it all depends on the shape of the timetable. 

 

If you cast your mind back 12 months or so you will recall it was precisely the lack of such firebreaks which Chris Gibb cited in his report into the BML that meant it was practically impossible for Southern / Thameslink to recover the service in time for the evening peak.

 

Its also one of the reasons the recent attempt at a open access Southampton to Waterloo service failed - NR made it very clear that although it would be possible to squeeze said trains in, doing so would take out the last firebreaks on the SWML.

 

With many HS2 services running on to or joining from the classic network, it is important to provide enough opportunities to recover from delays during the day.

[Hesperus]

6 minutes is exactly double 3 minutes - voila, a skip stop is a perfectly straightforward thing to arrange (I do of course speak from the practical experience of constructing a timetable including skip stops and what's more a timetable which actually works in practice).  You mentioned 'firebreaks' which presumably will be unused paths so if they are provided skip stops need not necessarily use capacity that was otherwise used - it all depends on the shape of the timetable.  And it is hardly a difficult task for experienced timetabling staff to build a service around skip stops.

 

As you have mentioned HS2 is already planning to provide stops at Old Oak Common - stops which will inevitably consume a lot of time due to deceleration and acceleration due to their proximity to the terminus at Euston and added to that the implication that GWR/successor Main Line Trains will also call at Old Oak Common indicates its present tight Main line timetable will be hit as well (much more logical not to provide main line platforms on the GWML - they would appear too offer nothing connection wise in any case.   all that the Old oak Common stop would appear to offer is connections between HS 2 and Crossrail with the latter offering a link to Heathrow - which to be honest is hardly going to be attractive to travellers from Birmingham and certain parts of the north west who have airports on their doorstep or readily accessible by private car or taxi.  The Crossrail link into/from London is obviously the most attractive part of the interchange but even then I would wonder about its attraction for long distance passengers with heavy luggage although it might appeal to the business traveller but that does not suggest any need for platforms on the GWML Main Lines (which could not be used by Crossrail trains anyway in the event of the Reliefs being closed due to lack of capacity let alone suitable connections).

 

Seems really that strategic thought in one part of govt doesn't sit too easily with strategic thought elsewhere in Govt with HS2 neglecting to serve a major stretch of development for tens of thousands of people who will have little alternative if travelling northwards once many traditional route services are transferred to HS 2.

 

While there are indeed many airports north of London with flights to many destinations they don't go everywhere so a regular stream of people will need to get to Heathrow from all over the country.

 

If all of the southbound high speed services are being funnelled down one route it makes a lot of sense for them to stop at OOC as easy connections to Crossrail and the GWML would see most travellers changing here rather than Euston.  This in turn makes OOC a major station meaning that all GWML services will need to stop there. Once things are up and running a great deal of journeys between destinations north of Birmingham to/from destinations west of London will be passing through OOC.  This will help to some degree with overcrowding on Crosscountry and save passengers from stressful journeys accross London.

[lmsforever]

 Wigan is a sensible destination for HS2 it is after all the epicentre of the north west with excellent facilities, a magnificent rugby league team don't mention football, a brilliant model rail show and of course it has a pier!  But there is a spanner in the works,  is there not an excellent rapid service from Euston already which offers a full catering service ,a good mixture of stops on the way enabling passengers to leave and continue to a wide range of destinations.   But in the so called modern Britain this is not required anymore because the new breed of passenger only wants to go to one or two places and never use a train for what it was deigned for.Logicaly this new dictum would say that I get on a train at Marylebone and get off after a non stop trip to Aylesbury say what you like this is what could well be heading for us,look at France. All the backers of this line want any competition closed or dumbed down to the point its no use ,this is not good and will decrease numbers on the network.Remember the last word, NETWORK that is what we have now and closing services that benefit the majority in favour of a London based few is not a good idea.

 .  You can say what you like but I think that the above is how it will be, doubtless a certain person will be very rude and quote spurious figures at me as he always does it makes for interesting reading.HS2 is not needed its a drain on the country and I bet it will be cap in hand for assistance within a year and if the DFT do their  usual trick on franchising what will be the name of the state operator who will have run it. 

[phil-b259]

While there are indeed many airports north of London with flights to many destinations they don't go everywhere so a regular stream of people will need to get to Heathrow from all over the country.

 

If all of the southbound high speed services are being funnelled down one route it makes a lot of sense for them to stop at OOC as easy connections to Crossrail and the GWML would see most travellers changing here rather than Euston. This in turn makes OOC a major station meaning that all GWML services will need to stop there. Once things are up and running a great deal of journeys between destinations north of Birmingham to/from destinations west of London will be passing through OOC. This will help to some degree with overcrowding on Crosscountry and save passengers from stressful journeys accross London.

Very true.

 

Sometimes I feel folk focus far too much on HS2 - GWML / Crossrail connections when it comes to Old Oak Common.

 

The main advantage I see of having GWR long distance services call there is it provides a way of those living to the West or North London say easy access through the proposed NLL and WLL stations.

 

The GEML has Stratford and the SWML + BML have Clapham Junction where interchange can be had without the need to navigate into Central London and I don’t see why the GWML should be ignored when it comes to the chance to create a similar transport hub.

 

Furthermore if (and I accept it’s a big if at the moment) the Mayors vision for a massive Stratford type redevelopment takes place Old Oak May well become a destination in its own right.

 

There are of course issues with timetabling - and I don’t doubt that the stationmasters previously aired concerns over line capacity are not easily resolved, but with sufficient attention to detail it should not be beyond the whit of today’s Railway engineers to come up with a solution.

 

Whether that solution is acceptable to the men from the ministry on the other hand......

Edited October 13, 2018 by phil-b259

[adb968008]

Theres nothing Old Oak offers that a major station under the new Heathrow runway could offer.

If HS2 ignored old oak, came to Sipson, with the M3/4/25/40 arrive, which has a lot of greenfield space for parking, it could become a major hub for GWML, Heathrow and HS2.

As they are building a terminal 6 and runway on it, the overall cost of development could benefit scale at the same time.

 

Whilst Birmingham is a wasted hub, if the HS1 connection were there, would offer the only real <5hour competing services than flights to Brussels and Paris that HS2 can bring.

 

Today Euston is a 90 minute connection from South London, with HS2 it will remain so. That HS2 will offer Brum in 1 hour than 2 hours is irelevent when the car does it in 2 hours today and will still do so tomorrow with much more flexibility.

Those in North London will still find their current arrangements suitable as will those in the west... your not going to go from Reading to Old Oak to goto Brum.

[phil-b259]

Theres nothing Old Oak offers that a major station under the new Heathrow runway could offer.

If HS2 ignored old oak, came to Sipson, with the M3/4/25/40 arrive, which has a lot of greenfield space for parking, it could become a major hub for GWML, Heathrow and HS2.

As they are building a terminal 6 and runway on it, the overall cost of development could benefit scale at the same time.

Whilst Birmingham is a wasted hub, if the HS1 connection were there, would offer the only real <5hour competing services than flights to Brussels and Paris that HS2 can bring.

Today Euston is a 90 minute connection from South London, with HS2 it will remain so. That HS2 will offer Brum in 1 hour than 2 hours is irelevent when the car does it in 2 hours today and will still do so tomorrow with much more flexibility.

Those in North London will still find their current arrangements suitable as will those in the west... your not going to go from Reading to Old Oak to goto Brum.

Once again I politely remind people that Birmingham is not the focus of HS2! It simply happens to lie slap bang in the middle of the logical route between the North west and London and is of such a size that it cannot be ignored.

 

While HS2 may not be any faster for those living in Reading wishing to get to Birmingham, if they wish to travel to Manchester, Liverpool, Scotland, Sheffield, Leeds or Newcastle then HS2 will beat the current XC offering and the car even if you do have to go east to Old Oak first. Moreover given how overcrowded the current XC services get (and the inability to lengthen them due to the need to use short platforms / platform share at key stations like Reading and Birmingham), going via Old Oak may (subject to decent rolling stock interiors of course) produce a more comfortable journey.

 

While I also am unhappy at the lack of connection between HS2 and HS1 it needs to be acknowledged that this is a direct result of the UKs unwillingness to be part of the Schengen scheme and demand passport checks on all international train services plus thus complete segregation between international and domestic passengers. If the UK was prepared to accept the mixing of the two (as the French do) then regular Birmingham - Paris services calling at Old Oak & Stratford for London travellers may we’ll have been viable.

 

Finally while getting from South London to Euston May be quick by tube, not everyone wants to trudge up and down escalators, etc either because they have heavy bags, children in tow or simply do not feel comfortable underground / confined conditions. Personally I much prefer using Thameslink to St Pancras rather than the Victoria line across central London even though that option always comes out as the quickest option on journey planning websites. Using orbital services like the WLL / NLL to connect with HS2 (or indeed the GWML) thus should not be dismissed - indeed a few years ago TfL themselves recognise their value in trying to relieve the core tube network by shifting folk to orbital services.

Edited October 13, 2018 by phil-b259

[locoholic]

Once again I politely remind people that Birmingham is not the focus of HS2! It simply happens to lie slap bang in the middle of the logical route between the North west and London and is of such a size that it cannot be ignored.

You are funny!

 

It's called HS2, High Speed 2, but it's not about speed, apparently it's about capacity.

 

It will go from London to Birmingham, but that's just a coincidence, because it's actually all about getting to Manchester, or is it Leeds?

 

I wonder what other misconceptions about HS2 I am labouring under? I always assumed it would be standard gauge, but maybe it will be Broad Gauge? AC overhead electric, atmospheric, or perhaps Warp Drive?

 

From the day it was announced I have always been skeptical about one railway that is meant to connect London with the whole of 'Oop North', just like the London & Birmingham did all those years ago, for a few years until everyone realised that it was better to go direct.

[adb968008]

Which south London connections will connect at HS2.. exactly ?

 

If you mean Hythe road, with a 700m thats 1/2mile walk through an industrial estate which after dark i’m sure wouldnt be desirable to a lady dragging a suitcase... thats ontop of the 20minute slow meander from Clapham that would require a further connection., from a train which would already be heading to Victoria (4 stops) or Waterloo (6stops) on a direct tube service to Euston taking c7-10mins minutes from Clapham with much less walking and greater security... as Hythe Road is above ground, it too like the tube requires lifts, stairs etc just as Euston does...

If so..

 

Then the answers none, practically, and a further impractical option added to the mix.

 

Old Oak only serves Heathrow.. so why doesnt it just goto Heathrow and save everyones time and money ?

 

My guess is HS2 meets the needs of BA, Virgin trains & BAA in that it protects their interests to providing a more realistic connection for domestic flights at Heathrow to the north, whilst protecting Virgin trains interests on the Birmingham route.

With no road connections at Old Oak, people from Up north will continue to use Watford... its why VT stops there... most normal people dont have an NW1 postcode and Watford does have motorway connections and a massive car park for a reason.

 

Its human nature to work out the shortest route between two points, and its irelevent the transport mode to use it that route, but gets skewed heavily against more expensive methods in relation to time.

 

If HS2 carries a premium and has little to no time saving from Door to door.. (not just station to station), it wont get used by that set of populace.

 

I see the point in Euston station, it has connections, north, east, south and west, Old Oak artificially offers Heathrow at a disadvantage, and not much more... ok East Enders from Canary Wharf maybe.

 

There was another vanity project designed by philosophers, artisans and professors, that prescribed placing a hub in the centre of nowhere, with few connections but on paper suggested that just by being in the centre of nowhere everyone will academically use it to get everywhere...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ciudad_Real_Central_Airport

 

I fear old oak will be the UKs equivalent, it will get used but not at its expectations.

 

A hub means that... everything comes together. Old Oak isnt a hub, its a bunch of broken spokes that some cross, some miss and some are added for the sake of it...

If Old Oak is to work, TFL needs to be IN the same station, the Central line NEEDS a station and the whole encampment needs a decent motorway and car park... of course for South London the current best proposal is crossrail 2.. and that goes via Euston.

 

Finally on the point of HS1... its not just Brussels, South Eastern could provide seamless cross London journeys too, we used to have cross london intercities... but that was until Virgin realised the benefits of not doing it.

Edited October 13, 2018 by adb968008

[Neil]

London London London - Who wants to go to London ? ....

 

Quite, but via London would be another matter. This would ease my holidays no end.

 

[Glorious NSE]

...as will those in the west... your not going to go from Reading to Old Oak to goto Brum.

 

Possibly not, but you might go from Exeter to Old Oak to go to Leeds, or Newcastle...

[adb968008]

Possibly not, but you might go from Exeter to Old Oak to go to Leeds, or Newcastle...

You might, but that’s not a trainfull of people, is there really demand for Exeter to Newcastle ?

I can imagine students (probably not HS2 types), and business people (who may fly inside 3 hours today, but with connection as their isn’t enough direct air route demand),

So journey times.,

1. By rail today.. 6 hours direct

2. HS2 compared to the 2.5 hours just to Old Oak, plus another 2.5hours to Newcastle plus connection wait time... 5.5 hours ok it’s 30 minutes faster than today’s train.

3. but the car is only 6 hours too...

4. Connecting flight 3.5 hours

 

I should add cost for this route.. this Monday : cheapest is £191, highest is £735.

HS2 will charge a premium fare, so let’s use cheapest 1st class... that’s £499 on Monday am

By comparison flying on Monday is £299.

If I drove the 372 flexible miles out and back, in a 45mpg car (12.4 miles per litre) car that’s 60l of fuel at a princely £1.35 a litre = £81 return... and the tax man would give you £334 in mileage allowance too, a £253 profit for the business man, who presumably will have lunch and dinner expenses to enjoy too.

 

I still don’t see HS2 winning unless families, students and OAPs lose their discount cards on regular fares but keep them on HS2.

Going back to the demand point... if there was enough demand, then an airline would open up this as a route, with a direct flight taking 1 hour at lower fares... leaving HS2 with its pants down.

 

Savings on the GWML to up north are a myth, Heathrow, Bristol, Cardiff, Exeter and Newquay airports will always win, and existing direct rail covers the rest to within 30mins or so

Edited October 14, 2018 by adb968008

[phil-b259]

 

It's called HS2, High Speed 2, but it's not about speed, apparently it's about capacity.

 

 

The name high speed is an accurate description of the engineering standard to which the new line will be built. It does not follow that the 'brand name' has to indicate the primary reason it exists. Please show me how the word 'Selotape' somehow means it does not function, from an engineering design perspective as 'clear adhesive tape' or that Aandrex' is not a toilet tissue because its not called 'toilet tissue'

 

HS2 is a brand name derived from the engineering standards the 'product' will be built to. Many critics are only to happy to call it a 'white elephant' but even they do not expect the end product to be a line of Albino elephants arranged nose to tail between London and the West Midlands

 

In fact you should note that HS2 could still be quite legitimately called 'high speed' even if it was being built as a conventional UK railway as an EU directive issued some years ago defined anything faster than 110mph as 'high speed' for purposes of crashworthiness and interoperability. Personally I disagree with this as it lumps to gether mixed traffic corridors like the WCML or GEML with the 150mph or 186mph lines dedicated to high speed passenger trains in France, Germany etc.

 

Its also worth remembering that HS1 from London to the Channel Tunnel was originally called the "Channel Tunnel Rail Link' or CTRL. When it was renamed to HS-1 by the politicians there was no change to the engineering standards - it was still officially classed as a 'high speed' railway'

 

If we adopted true French thinking* then HS1 would become 'High Speed, Kent' and HS2 would become 'High Speed, West Midlands', 'High Speed, North West', 'High Speed,  East Midlands', etc

 

* As in Ligne à Grande Vitesse, Sud-est, LGV Rhône-Alpes, LGV Méditerranée, LGV Nîmes–Montpellier LGV Atlantique, LGV Bretagne-Pays de la Loire, LGV Sud Europe Atlantique, LGV Nord, LGV Interconnexion Est, LGV Rhin-Rhône, LGV Est

 

 

It will go from London to Birmingham, but that's just a coincidence, because it's actually all about getting to Manchester, or is it Leeds?

 

 

Lets make things a little clearer for you. Admittedly it does require you to actually understand that the need for a new railway is NOT driven by medium distance InterCity Travel travel like London to Brimingham, but long distance InterCity travel such as that between London and Manchester / Leeds / Preston or Birmingham - Leeds.

 

Amusing you are able to put your prejudices aside for a moment.....

 

...Imagine HS2 instead of going through the Chilterns HS2 was being built alongside the A1 road out of London. 38 minutes out of London you probably would get to Grantham which although a sizeable town is not going to generate enough custom to fill 4 long HS2 trains per hour to London is it?  Furthermore Grantham does not sit on the core Cross country route - a route which we know from the many first hand experiences on this forum is significantly overcrowded / congested so the numbers of potential travellers starting their journey is small. Thus when considering the strategic objective of the new line (i.e. long distance travel) there is no justification for a station that location so it wouldn't happen.

 

All perfectly logical so far.

 

Birmingham and the West Midlands by contrast has a much larger population than Grantham area and also acts as a significant node on the cross country network. Thus if HS2 is going to pass reasonably close to Birmingham, the sheer numbers of travellers it can provide means that when you crunch the numbers the disbenefit (4tph less between the north west or north east and London) worth the sacrifice. Moreover you find that because of Birmingham's position on the cross country network, you can also use the 2 northern legs of HS2 to provide additional capacity where it is needed (unlike say Grantham - Leeds)

 

If HS2 was being conceived as purely a relief line for Birmingham traffic then I agree the top speed can be reduced and more stations added to serve the Chilterns, Warwickshire, etc.

 

However HS2 is NOT a Birmingham relief line and hence it is being optimised for the needs of rail traffic beyond Birmingham - most of which doesn't stop on the Southern section of the WCML if it can help it (and where those that do call only do so because there isn't the track capacity to have a proper fast & semi fast service).

 

 

From the day it was announced I have always been skeptical about one railway that is meant to connect London with the whole of 'Oop North', just like the London & Birmingham did all those years ago, for a few years until everyone realised that it was better to go direct.

 

Thats the point.

 

HS2 IS going direct - its not passing through Milton Keynes, Rugby, Coventry, Luton, Bedford, Kettering, Peterborough, Newark, etc en route - it scoups up long distance traffic and inserts it the other side of all these congested areas.

 

While it would be nice to think the UK population as a whole could see the benefit of a whole load of HS lines and have one running up the A1 as well to serve Yorkshire the north East for example, I think its pretty evident from the struggle we have on here with HS2, that such a forward thinking future is very unlikley to happen in the UK. As such its only right to try and get maximum benefit from the only HS line we are likely to build in terms of long distance service reach - something the full HS2 Y based network does quite well.

[phil-b259]

You might, but that’s not a trainfull of people, is there really demand for Exeter to Newcastle ?

I can imagine students (probably not HS2 types), and business people (who may fly inside 3 hours today, but with connection as their isn’t enough direct air route demand),

So journey times.,

1. By rail today.. 6 hours direct

2. HS2 compared to the 2.5 hours just to Old Oak, plus another 2.5hours to Newcastle plus connection wait time... 5.5 hours ok it’s 30 minutes faster than today’s train.

3. but the car is only 6 hours too...

4. Connecting flight 3.5 hours

 

I should add cost for this route.. this Monday : cheapest is £191, highest is £735.

HS2 will charge a premium fare, so let’s use cheapest 1st class... that’s £499 on Monday am

By comparison flying on Monday is £299.

If I drove the 372 flexible miles out and back, in a 45mpg car (12.4 miles per litre) car that’s 60l of fuel at a princely £1.35 a litre = £81 return... and the tax man would give you £334 in mileage allowance too.

 

I still don’t see HS2 winning unless families, students and OAPs lose their discount cards on regular fares but keep them on HS2.

Going back to the demand point... if there was enough demand, then an airline would open up this as a route, with a direct flight taking 1 hour at lower fares... leaving HS2 with its pants down.

 

Exeter - Newcastle via HS2 is I agree a rather unlikely way to go about things  - so why use it?

 

Similarly why assume the worst case scenario in fare terms?

 

Despite all the scaremongering by those opposed to HS2 there is nothing in any of the documentary evidence to say the only fare to be offered will be 'walk on' ones. Yes there will be a premium element, but I fully expect there to be cheap advance purchase tickets available at prices not radically different to those currently offered by the likes of Virgin.

 

Reading (or elsewhere in the Thames Valley) to Manchester say is most likely to be quicker by HS2 and old Oak (plus less overcrowded than XC) so is a far more realistic example that the Old Oak GWML station helps make viable.

[adb968008]

Exeter - Newcastle via HS2 is I agree a rather unlikely way to go about things - so why use it?

 

Similarly why assume the worst case scenario in fare terms?

 

Despite all the scaremongering by those opposed to HS2 there is nothing in any of the documentary evidence to say the only fare to be offered will be 'walk on' ones. Yes there will be a premium element, but I fully expect there to be cheap advance purchase tickets available at prices not radically different to those currently offered by the likes of Virgin.

 

Reading (or elsewhere in the Thames Valley) to Manchester say is most likely to be quicker by HS2 and old Oak (plus less overcrowded than XC) so is a far more realistic example that the Old Oak GWML station helps make viable.

£735 is worst case fare, but even the lowest off peak is £192.

If I was poor i’d take a bus, if I can afford I take the £192.

If I want time over money, I take the £299 3 hour connecting flight, over a 5.5hour journey via London.

 

But let’s take Reading to Manchester.. Monday am..and to help i’ll Go best case on everything..

1.09.12 takes 3hr 29 minutes, off peak far £89

2. HS2, 25mins to OC, 10min connection (assumes no security scan or secure Pre board waiting areas in the future), and 1hr 8minutes.. 1hr 43, should we stick with the same £89 fare to help the business case ?

3. Car to LHR 30min, 45min checkin, 1hour fly to Manchester, 30mins by train £79 air fare, plus £15 in ground transport (remember best case applies to all not just HS2).. 2hr 45.

4. Drive to Manchester, 187m each way, using the same math above is £42 in fuel, with the taxman paying £168 in allowance giving a profit of £126 to put towards the next service, 3.5 hours.

 

 

The flaw in HS2isnt the idea, which is very sound, it’s in the feed of passengers to it..it’s designed to get people from up north into London city, it takes no account of passengers who live around and outside London (one could say culturally that’s rather telling that there’s an assumption no one wants to go up north and so designed that feature out of the current design).

It’s terminals are all central, that is to the local transport option.. East Midlands is designed to feed directly 3 locations and a motorway, the rest are existing hubs, including Euston. Old Oak is not a hub, it’s like Crewe.. a connection in nowhere, but unlike Crewe, Old Oak, serves no major cities, nor feeds to other lines except Heathrow, and Canary Wharf, unless there’s a secret desire for the people of Shenfield to party in Manchester that I don’t know about ?

 

If HS2 has to discount itself in order to attract passengers.. isn’t that a statement in itself ?

Edited October 14, 2018 by adb968008

[phil-b259]

Which south London connections will connect at HS2.. exactly ?

 

If you mean Hythe road, with a 700m thats 1/2mile walk through an industrial estate which after dark i’m sure wouldnt be desirable to a lady dragging a suitcase... thats ontop of the 20minute slow meander from Clapham that would require a further connection., from a train which would already be heading to Victoria (4 stops) or Waterloo (6stops) on a direct tube service to Euston taking c7-10mins minutes from Clapham with much less walking and greater security... as Hythe Road is above ground, it too like the tube requires lifts, stairs etc just as Euston does...

 

 

Point taken about the disadvantages of TfLs proposed WLL / NLL station locations - but once again this is largely the fault of HM Governments silo thinking where it seeks to strictly limit what HS2 has to pay for while at the same time ditching most forms of revenue support to TfL (to such an extent that tube fares have to pay for the upkeep of the competing A40, A13, A406, etc)

 

TfL did have a consultation over other station locations and while I do agree the rejected options were a much better fit in terms of providing a single hub station, without financial backing from Central Government or a willingness to take on the green lobby over Wormwood Scrubs, TfL have done the best they can.

 

The other thing to remember though is that if TfL get their way and are able to progress a Stratford style 'total redevelopment' of the area then interchange 'via the street' doesn't have to be so bad. For example its possible to walk between Strafford International and Stratford GEML station totally under cover 24hrs a day thanks to the Westfield Shopping mall.

 

 

Old Oak only serves Heathrow.. so why doesnt it just goto Heathrow and save everyones time and money ?

 

 

Not so.

 

It provides interchange with Crossrail with direct links to Canary Wharf and Stratford, and GWML stations through West London to Reading.

 

As stated in a previous post, while Reading - Birmingham or Bristol - Birmingham and Plymouth - Newcastle are not going to be quicker via Old Oak Common and HS2, Basingstoke - Leeds or Reading - Manchester could be.

 

 

 

A hub means that... everything comes together. Old Oak isnt a hub, its a bunch of broken spokes that some cross, some miss and some are added for the sake of it...

If Old Oak is to work, TFL needs to be IN the same station, the Central line NEEDS a station and the whole encampment needs a decent motorway and car park... of course for South London the current best proposal is crossrail 2.. and that goes via Euston.

 

 

 

Given TfLs stance over air pollution, motorway links and lots of car parking* are NOT going to happen

 

* unless its reluctantly allowed by a developer to kick start a regeneration of the area as has occurred with Westfield at Stratford.

[phil-b259]

 

If HS2 has to discount itself in order to attract passengers.. isn’t that a statement in itself ?

 

So according to you Easyjet is a failure because it discounts seats? What about National Express, Eurotunnel or Virgin Trains?

 

Like most travel business they all could simply sell all its seats at 'walk' on prices - but doing so is not good business sense. Instead its sometimes better to sell for a low price but with restrictions on refunds etc. That way you are guaranteed the cash even if the purchaser doesn't show up.

 

Even BR had started to adopt airline pricing before it was privatised and that principle has been expanded big time after privatisation.

 

Heck even Heritage railways have cottoned on to the idea of selling day specific non refundable tickets at a discount weeks in advance to get bums on seats as it were.

 

Why should the operators of HS2 be any different.

[adb968008]

So according to you Easyjet is a failure because it discounts seats? What about National Express, Eurotunnel or Virgin Trains?

 

Like most travel business they all could simply sell all its seats at 'walk' on prices - but doing so is not good business sense. Instead its sometimes better to sell for a low price but with restrictions on refunds etc. That way you are guaranteed the cash even if the purchaser doesn't show up.

 

Even BR had started to adopt airline pricing before it was privatised and that principle has been expanded big time after privatisation.

 

Heck even Heritage railways have cottoned on to the idea of selling day specific non refundable tickets at a discount weeks in advance to get bums on seats as it were.

 

Why should the operators of HS2 be any different.

Compare apples to apples...

EasyJet isn’t competing against Cars, boats and trains when it comes to flights... it’s competing against other airlines.

HS2 is not HS1.. HS2 is wholly a government owned project, like Network Rail.

HS1 is not competing against Network Rail, similarly South Eastern operates both franchises on NR and HS1. Eurostar is private and runs as a monopoly.

This isn’t the case on HS2.

 

If HS2 is faster, then it shouldn’t need to be cheaper than another train. HS1 certainly isn’t, and it’s trains carry a premium over what survives in the air too.

 

If it’s all about capacity being needed, then the implication demand exists (and the market is growing), if it’s purpose is to take ridership away from other routes... then without demand money is being lost... the government is competing against itself by stealing Network Rails business for HS2.

 

If the government does indeed compete against Network Rail services, it may look HS2 good, but it will end up subsidising the WCML/ ECML routes and franchisees further.

 

But £50bn is a big cost, with big rates of interest, even say over 30years at 4%.. that’s £85bn to repay... that’s £7.8mn per day premiums from those expected 300k passengers a day... that’s £25.87 per head just to stand still... plus regular train fare, plus operating costs, plus profit (and tax)... and that £85bn is accruing more interest every day until the first train runs and some money rolls in.

 

It therefore shouldn’t need to be discounting fares, unless of course a state run monopoly is seeking to undermine its tax paying business infrastructure by taking on the airlines ? - but with bad LHR / HS2 connections and LHR gaining a new short haul runway and terminal I don’t see that to be the case, the winner will be BA/ LHR in that one, as I said earlier those protections are in place.

 

I’d like to see where an extra 300k people are, who want to travel to London daily, especially as figures tell us people are brexiting the UK and were supposedly locking the borders.. are we all supposed to be getting freaky to grow the populace ?

 

There is of course another target, the business car driver. If the tax allowance for a car is removed, they are forced to the Rails. The problem is a massive drop in company car ownership will follow.. as will the car factories and those tax paying employees who make them. Additionally there’s the loss of that valuable Petrol and Road tax revenue. It’s risky as HS2 only goes to cities, where as business is everywhere, or at least it was until the loss of a car makes it no-longer viable to go there... like it or not, the success of our post war economy survives due to the car, it’s no coincidence the highest car ownership countries are the economically stronger ones.

Edited October 14, 2018 by adb968008

[black and decker boy]

I’ve had to travel from High Wycombe to South Shields for work a few times.

 

Effectively allowing for connections, transfers and check in etc, all 3 modes worked out at 6 hours.

 

I chose the train. I live close to Heathrow but flight options weren’t as good as the train so would result in an unduly early departure (not acceptable to fee paying client) or a later arrival home. Driving for 6 hours (including the recommended loo / coffee / food-breaks) doesn’t leave many people with the energy or mental freshness to then work a full day and interact well with clients.

 

The train allowed me to work on the move, relax and watch the world go by and offered a 30minutes frequency to come home. Most trains were well loaded in both directions.

 

By comparison, I also need to travel to Derby with work and can’t get the timetable / frequency to work by train. Flying isn’t an option so it’s a long trek by car.

 

The fuel rates quoted above only apply if you own the car. Those in company leased cars currently get 12p per mile on HMRC rates so no champagne and caviar for lunch.

Edited October 14, 2018 by black and decker boy