Whakaari eruption

[PhilJ W]

Thoughts are with those caught up in the eruption of Whakaari in New Zealand. Five confirmed dead and many missing including a group filmed inside the crater minutes before the eruption.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

There but for the grace of God go I. Never miss a chance to visit an active volcanic area (it really helps the imagination of what Edinburgh must have once looked like!) and they do things like that for sure. Seen the 'Nea Kameni' in the Santorini caldera do much the same thing, steam propelled ejection, from the safety of a ship. Big splashes not that far ahead of the bows.

[eastglosmog]

Very sad to see the deaths and injuries, but do people never pay any attention to how volcanoes behave and how unpredictable they can be?  The crater of an active volcano that has recently started to become more active is no place to be.  Zig-zaging round closed half barriers is more sensible.

[Oldddudders]

I see as many as 50 lives may have been lost. An awful lot of holiday insurance companies will be investigating the adequacy of the island's owner's cover, and whether they took enough advice from local earthquake gurus. The cruise liner's owners will be wondering if they are at risk for having said it was safe for their clients. And lawyers will get fatter. Meanwhile thousands of relatives, friends and colleagues of the deceased will be in utter distress. 

 

Act of God? Maybe, but with some chance of prediction, perhaps. 

[PhilJ W]

According to the news reports warnings were given against landing on the island. Also reported is five dead and eight missing and an unknown number injured. 

[Classsix T]

Have to concur with Ian and eastglomog on this, whilst entering the lion's cage may seem appealing, be aware of the consequences. FFS. 

 

Mother Nature does not give a hoot for your holiday insurance policy. 

 

C6T. 

[robmcg]

The island's risk was at 'level 2'  (from 0-5 ?) with nothing more than increased sulfur emissions which is common without eruption.

 

The geo scientists say it's their job to measure, not dictate.  There will be a 'discussion' between scientists, civil defence, tour operators, government and others.

 

There have been eruptions in the last 30 years but more by luck than anything else nobody hurt. Tour groups for c28 years and scientists before that.

 

It is a large volcanic tip. mostly submerged and therefore under-estimated in size and danger.

 

Everyone hurt or killed is covered by Accident Compensation here in NZ.   NZ$100,000 or UKP50,000 for death or very major disability, all expenses paid, so the compensation law will be less complex than it might be elsewhere, and many will be insured on top of that.

 

Very sad.  I expect tours to be banned or severely curtailed.

 

 

[Ozexpatriate]

With full hindsight no one should have been in the area but how do we know that in advance?

 

It's too soon to criticize the tour operator for irresponsible carelessness or the NZ  Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences for a lack of more precise prediction. When more facts are available we may learn that it is not fair to criticize anyone. Explosive eruptive events are sudden.

 

While volcano prediction has improved dramatically, I suspect the ability to predict an eruptive event is better with larger eruptions and we should remember that on the scale of explosive, stratovolcanic eruptions, this particular eruption was very small and the signs may have been difficult to measure.

 

Like NZ, locally here on the other side of the ring of fire we are very aware of volcanoes. The eruption of Mount St Helens in 1980 was anticipated (though the moment of eruption was not predicted) and people were removed from the blast zone. Despite this around sixty people died. The Mount St. Helens eruption was significantly larger than the White Island eruption.

 

All of our local volcanoes, there are dozens of really big ones with varying activity levels, are monitored by the US Geological Survey. They were not negligent with Mount St. Helens and yet people died and have learned a lot since then. 

 

Here we live with the possibility of a large subduction zone earthquake (much like Fukushima). (Subduction of the Juan DeFuca plate under the North American plate fuels our volcanoes.) When the earthquake happens bridges will collapse and people driving on those bridges during the eruption might die. We don't consider it irresponsible to travel over those bridges.

Edited December 9, 2019 by Ozexpatriate

[The Stationmaster]

According to one report the risk level was only recently increased to Level 2 and that report implied (and another source states) that the risk level is indicative of the warning signs of an eruption.  So an increase to Level 2 means the risk of an eruption has increased and the higher the warning level the more immediate the likely risk is.  But any level is a risk.

 

Terrible incident and a later statement has indicated there are probably no survivors on the island.   Nature is always going to win how clever we humans might think we are.  RIP those wh lost their lives.

[eastglosmog]

Hydrogen Sulfide (sewer gas),  a component of sulfurous gas emissions from volcanoes, is toxic and can be fatal (when it gets above the level you can smell it).  Quite likely to accumulate in enclosed craters.  I remain surprised people were allowed into the crater.

Volcano hazard levels go from 0 (inactive) to 4 (erupting).  This was only a very minor eruption, but still deadly if you are too close.

I believe the USGS did their best to keep people away from the perceived danger areas around Mt St Helens (although the danger area proved bigger than they anticipated) and (so far as I know) no one was in the volcano crater at the time.  Several of the fatalities were due to people ignoring USGS advice.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

3 hours ago, eastglosmog said:

... do people never pay any attention to how volcanoes behave and how unpredictable they can be? ...

Eternal optimism of the 'never going to happen to me' sort... My first ever volcanic unpredictability experience was my first time in such a place,  Yellowstone (utterly wonderful, visit if you can) where we could hear this strange 'heavy breathing' in the woodland margin of one of the basins. And there was a stand of various mature trees in leaf being set ablaze by a (presumably either new or some decades inactive) fumarole vent. And quickly walk away to a 'safe distance'...

[cctransuk]

2 hours ago, eastglosmog said:

Hydrogen Sulfide (sewer gas),  a component of sulfurous gas emissions from volcanoes, is toxic and can be fatal (when it gets above the level you can smell it).  Quite likely to accumulate in enclosed craters.  I remain surprised people were allowed into the crater.

Volcano hazard levels go from 0 (inactive) to 4 (erupting).  This was only a very minor eruption, but still deadly if you are too close.

I believe the USGS did their best to keep people away from the perceived danger areas around Mt St Helens (although the danger area proved bigger than they anticipated) and (so far as I know) no one was in the volcano crater at the time.  Several of the fatalities were due to people ignoring USGS advice.

 

Surely, as this is a UK-based group, it's sulphide?

 

... or is this another unwanted product of internationalism (Americanisation)?

 

( ... just sayin' );

 

Regards,

John Isherwood.

[EddieB]

5 minutes ago, cctransuk said:

 

Surely, as this is a UK-based group, it's sulphide?

 

... or is this another unwanted product of internationalism (Americanisation)?

 

( ... just sayin' );

 

Regards,

John Isherwood.

Unfortunately that is now the standard spelling taught in UK schools.  Perhaps we should just say “brimstone”.

[cctransuk]

2 hours ago, Ozexpatriate said:

With full hindsight no one should have been in the area but how do we know that in advance?

 

It's too soon to criticize the tour operator for irresponsible carelessness or the NZ  Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences for a lack of more precise prediction. When more facts are available we may learn that it is not fair to criticize anyone. Explosive eruptive events are sudden.

 

While volcano prediction has improved dramatically, I suspect the ability to predict an eruptive event is better with larger eruptions and we should remember that on the scale of explosive, stratovolcanic eruptions, this particular eruption was very small and the signs may have been difficult to measure.

 

Like NZ, locally here on the other side of the ring of fire we are very aware of volcanoes. The eruption of Mount St Helens in 1980 was anticipated (though the moment of eruption was not predicted) and people were removed from the blast zone. Despite this around sixty people died. The Mount St. Helens eruption was significantly larger than the White Island eruption.

 

All of our local volcanoes, there are dozens of really big ones with varying activity levels, are monitored by the US Geological Survey. They were not negligent with Mount St. Helens and yet people died and have learned a lot since then. 

 

Here we live with the possibility of a large subduction zone earthquake (much like Fukushima). (Subduction of the Juan DeFuca plate under the North American plate fuels our volcanoes.) When the earthquake happens bridges will collapse and people driving on those bridges during the eruption might die. We don't consider it irresponsible to travel over those bridges.

 

IMHO, anyone who goes wandering round in a smoking volcano crater has to take responsibility for the consequences - my sympathies are entirely with the relatives of those who failed to survive their 'adventure'.

 

I confess to considerable unease during our visit to the Rotorua area in N.Z. a couple of years ago - especially when I touched the lake water outside our hotel and got a mild scald!

 

Natural forces take no prisoners !!

 

Regards,

John Isherwood.

[cctransuk]

3 minutes ago, EddieB said:

Unfortunately that is now the standard spelling taught in UK schools.  Perhaps we should just say “brimstone”.

 

Perhaps we can make a stand for proper UK spelling on Thursday ?!?

 

OK, ok - no politics.

 

Regards,

John Isherwood.

[Ozexpatriate]

10 hours ago, eastglosmog said:

I believe the USGS did their best to keep people away from the perceived danger areas around Mt St Helens (although the danger area proved bigger than they anticipated) and (so far as I know) no one was in the volcano crater at the time.  Several of the fatalities were due to people ignoring USGS advice.

The Mt. St. Helens eruption did not occur in the crater, though there was a small circular crater on the summit.  Locally Mt. St. Helens was nicknamed the Fujiyama of the Northwest due to it's (pre-eruption) conical shape. The entire north side of the volcano exploded in a complex sequence of earthquake, landslide, lateral blast and pyroclastic flow and vertical ash plume, ultimately followed by a lahar flow down the Toutle River valley.

 

I do not believe that anyone was on the mountain at all and there was a wide exclusion zone which was the source of friction with locals in the days leading up to the eruption.

 

One of the fatalities was David Johnston (a USGS scientist making observations of the mountain).  The distance from the centre of the volcano to the location of of his observation point is in excess of 8 km / 5 miles as the crow flies.  He made a short radio transmission before being struck by a supersonic pyroclastic flow. The ridge where he was posted is now named Johnston Ridge in his honour and is the location of a visitor centre. I suspect that the USGS underestimated the likelihood of the lateral blast, but I say that without knowing anything definitive. Another fatality in the blast zone was the elderly proprietor of a lodge on Spirit Lake (which was near the base of the mountain) who refused to leave.  A third was National Geographic photographer Reid Blackburn who died (by asphyxiation from superheated ash) in his car at his campsite about 10 miles from the mountain.

 

In good time the sequence of the Whakaari / White Island eruption event will be described by vulcanologists and at that point we will understand what happened. Volcanic ejecta is super-heated. Ash fall is quite visible in the photographs and the presence of pyroclastic materials seems likely to me but we shouldn't be hypothesizing about the eruption or things like levels of Sulphur compounds.

[F-UnitMad]

10 hours ago, EddieB said:

Unfortunately that is now the standard spelling taught in UK schools.  Perhaps we should just say “brimstone”.

Spelling is actually taught in UK schools these days??

Could 'of' fooled me!!!

 

Yes I'm old enough to know it's "could have", but I had this argument at my lad's Primary School over a decade ago - they let the children spell phonetically without correction, which they said would happen 'later'.... which of course it never did, and even now my lad's spelling is awful. It seems to be a common affliction of the 'Millenial' generation.

 

Sorry,  

[Bernard Lamb]

11 hours ago, cctransuk said:

 

IMHO, anyone who goes wandering round in a smoking volcano crater has to take responsibility for the consequences - my sympathies are entirely with the relatives of those who failed to survive their 'adventure'.

 

I confess to considerable unease during our visit to the Rotorua area in N.Z. a couple of years ago - especially when I touched the lake water outside our hotel and got a mild scald!

 

Natural forces take no prisoners !!

 

Regards,

John Isherwood.

I remember camping near Rotorua and the ground beneath the tent was warm to the touch. Electric blanket sort of warm.

We actually flew into the crater of one volcano and then were able to jump out of the helicopter and have a short walk.

In New Zealand they are quite open and restriction free in respect of where you can go. Unfortunately an incident such as this will bring up the subject of individual choice re state control. Sad and upsetting when things do go wrong but I have always believed in freedom of access and taking risks.

I have been into the crater on Vesuvius and felt the heat creeping up my legs and walked on fresh lava in the Galapagos.

Fortunately an incident such as this is extremely rare.

Condolences to all affected but I sincerely hope that it will not lead to a knee jerk reaction imposing any restrictions.

Bernard

[TheQ]

I'm sure the American casualties will already be being bothered by ambulance chasing lawyers.. and the Brits these days..

[Oldddudders]

1 minute ago, TheQ said:

I'm sure the American casualties will already be being bothered by ambulance chasing lawyers.. and the Brits these days..

And that alone will trigger new clauses in holiday insurance conditions. I certainly think people should be allowed to venture to the world's wildest places - but at their own risk, and that risk needs to be spelt out first. Not every tourist is wise. 

[Reorte]

7 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

And that alone will trigger new clauses in holiday insurance conditions. I certainly think people should be allowed to venture to the world's wildest places - but at their own risk, and that risk needs to be spelt out first. Not every tourist is wise. 

 

There's no such thing as risk-free, no such thing as perfectly safe (and a world where there was would be unbearable), we just need to decide for ourselves where to draw the line, and to take responsibility for our own decisions. As someone mentioned upthread there's a visitors centre at Mount St Helens, and that's still active. It may be that it's well-studied enough that the risk of going there is low but it's still not zero.

[PhilJ W]

23 minutes ago, TheQ said:

I'm sure the American casualties will already be being bothered by ambulance chasing lawyers.. and the Brits these days..

My understanding is that New Zealand has a compensation scheme that is quite generous. The lawyers don't get a look in which is probably why a small country with a small population can afford it.

[PhilJ W]

Death toll has now risen to six with more expected from 27 being treated for severe burns (70%). Two British women are among the injured but it is not known how badly. Another Brit is reported to be among the missing.

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, PhilJ W said:

My understanding is that New Zealand has a compensation scheme that is quite generous. The lawyers don't get a look in which is probably why a small country with a small population can afford it.

I suspect that as far as some (many?) ambulance chasing members of the legal trade outside NZ are concerned they won't take any notice at all of the NZ state compensation scheme and will still be looking to sue somebody/anybody for as much as they can get, probably starting with the cruise line who offered the visit to White Island as an excursion.

[spikey]

14 hours ago, EddieB said:

Unfortunately that is now the standard spelling taught in UK schools.

 

Really?  I wasn't aware that spelling is still taught in UK schools.