HS2

[jamie92208]

I strongly suspect that this is a red herring. All the high value land in central London, a major factor in the resing costs, has already been purchased. The existing buildings have been demolished, retaining walls built and a huge old graveyard cleared at great expense.  All the spoil disposal arrangements  for the tunnelling are in place and I suspect that major parts of the TBM's have been built.  The two for the section to Euston share a launch chamber .  With the two heading north,  I think, so they would need to be out of the way to lay the tracks into OOC.  Theconly costscsaved would be the building andcequipping of the station itself I think and that's the bit thst will earn money from office rents.   There would also be some enourmous contract cancellation clauses.  Similar noises were made about cancelling  the 2nd new aircraft carrier andcit turned out that the cancellation  costs were about the same as completing it.

 

Jamie

[Phil Parker]

32 minutes ago, adanapress said:

Its my belief that a good deal of heavy work has actually already been done at Euston, quite apart from everywhere else.

 

Most of that was dealing with the sticky carpet in the Bree Louise pub I suspect. That must have been hazardous waste!

[scots region]

20 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

Can someone please explain the term "first past the post"? I have never understood it. There is no post, it is only necessary to get more than anyone else. You could win with only 10% of the vote if there are so many candidates that no-one else gets more than 9%. Where is this mythical "post" that you have to get past?

 

Martin.

 

It just means that whoever gets the most votes wins, I.e the biggest single number, its literally the simplest voting system devised. Basically if you had three candidates and 10 voters, then candidate 2 could win with four votes, if the other two both got three. You can see the central complaint here, more votes were cast against the winner than for, but no one candidate was chosen more than the other. So yes, in an FPTP election a candidate can indeed win on eight percent, because its a pure numbers game. 

[martin_wynne]

3 minutes ago, scots region said:

 

It just means that whoever gets the most votes wins, I.e the biggest single number, its literally the simplest voting system devised. Basically if you had three candidates and 10 voters, then candidate 2 could win with four votes, if the other two both got three. You can see the central complaint here, more votes were cast against the winner than for, but no one candidate was chosen more than the other. So yes, in an FPTP election a candidate can indeed win on eight percent, because its a pure numbers game. 

 

Thank you for repeating my question. But I was actually looking for an answer. Where is the "post" that has to be got past? A post occupies a fixed position.

 

Martin.

 

[Hibelroad]

2 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

Thank you for repeating my question. But I was actually looking for an answer. Where is the "post" that has to be got past? A post occupies a fixed position.

 

Martin.

 

I suspect it’s the post people get pipped at. 

[scots region]

1 minute ago, martin_wynne said:

 

Thank you for repeating my question. But I was actually looking for an answer. Where is the "post" that has to be got past? A post occupies a fixed position.

 

Martin.

 

 

Honestly its just a phrase, I don't know where it came from. 

[scots region]

I guess you could more accurately call it the Quantitative Qualification Method, but thats a level of nerdiness that not even RMweb permits.  

[The Stationmaster]

1 hour ago, roythebus1 said:

Copied across from my FB account earlier today: It seems the government never learns. Before WW2 London Transport made extensive plans to extend the Northern Line from Edgware via Aldenham to Elstree, a new development on the outer edge of London. Tunnels were dug, viaducts built, a huge maintenance depot was built at Aldenham, the station at Finsbury Park saw some extensive developments on the eastern side with steelworks for the new service to allow trains from Moorgate to access the new extension. That would have taken over the former LNER steam-operated line from Finsbury Park to Alexandra Palace and Edgware.

Then WW2 intervened, after that planning requirements changed and the whole project dropped, the extension was abandoned. The disused viaduct at Bushey remained until fairly recent times and the depot at Aldenham was changed over to bus overhaul. Reminders of what could have been. Government money wastd, as though WW2 hadn't cost enough already.

Fast forward to today, news that the new HS2 High Speed rail link into Euston is likely to be delayed due to lack of funds. Not really surprising given the present circumstances. It will terminate at Old Oak Common, a few miles form Euston. so if everyone that may have used the line are having to change trains again that will negate any time-saving benefit of using HS2! Not only that, but the massive destruction of property and earthworks around Euston will remain forever as a huge hole in the ground, another reminder of government folly.

 

And another bit of news that hasn't been revealed yet that I know of, my son who has contacts with XR and some of the HS2 protestors informs me that Boris Johnson's brother is the estate agent dealing with Euston Square.

 

Usual inventive story from protest groups - neither of Boris Johnson's two brothers have any involvement in an estate agency  or indeed anything to do with property development (unless Jo is being less than truthful on his House of Lords register of interests).  Lwo works for Price Waterhouse.

 

Note to Mods - kindly delete should you think this post is 'too political' as it does refer to a Member of the House of Lords

[APOLLO]

Crap services on the north WCML tonight, some trains cancelled, some terminating short, most late. This shambolic state of affairs is getting to be normality. Up 'ere in the NW we want reliable affordable services NOW. 

 

HS2 = Jam Tomorrow - all just for for London bound / departing passengers, no use at all for most up here. 

 

 And no, I'm not at all against HS2, just that it's soaking up all the capital investment pot. Don't cancel it, pare it back money and time wise to a reasonable, affordable level. I don't want to go to London (or Olde Oak Ham factory !!) at over 200mph (though that's not nearly fast enough to get out of that cesspit !!!!).

 

Money would be better spent where the worst problems are - i.e. Deansgate - Oxford Rd - Piccadilly 4 tracking etc. Anyone been to Platforms 13 & 14 at Piccadilly recently ? - the other day it was sheer ***** chaos at 3pm. The expensive Ordsall Chord has just one train per hour so I have read - constrained by the above line being at full capacity. Just not acceptable.

 

Brit15

 

 

[phil-b259]

2 hours ago, martin_wynne said:

 

Can someone please explain the term "first past the post"? I have never understood it. There is no post, it is only necessary to get more than anyone else. You could win with only 10% of the vote if there are so many candidates that no-one else gets more than 9%. Where is this mythical "post" that you have to get past?

 

Martin.

It’s shorthand for a specific way of electing MPs and thus getting a Government.

 

An MP ‘wins’ their seat simply by getting a majority of votes cast for them - much like in a horse race it’s the first horse past ‘the winning post’ is the winner of the race.

 

All well and good… BUT… in a democracy the goal of elections is to deliver a Government which commands the greatest support of the population - and this is where the ‘First past the post’ (FPTP) system can fall down.

 

For example let’s imagine a constituency where there are 3 candidates standing. One candidate (A)  gets 40% of the vote and the others (B) and (C) get 35% and 25% respectively.

 

Using the FPTP system the candidate who got 40% is duly elected in spite of the fact that the majority of voters (the 60% who voted for the other two candidates - B &C combined) did not.

 

This creates a paradox - an election is supposed to generate the sort of Government that is acceptable to most of the electorate - yet given those opposed to the winning candidate have a grater share of the vote then it’s arguable that said Government is not a true reflection of the electorate.

 

Thats why you can get the phrase that someone or a party ‘won’ the election but ‘lost’ the popular vote (If candidate A won 80% and the other two only got a combined total of 20% then candidate A could be said to have ‘won’ both.

 

Other electoral systems based on proportional representation do not suffer from this disadvantage* as the way the ‘winner’ is declared is more complex but better reflects the distribution of votes cast with the aim of ensuring the winning candidate represents as many of their constituents views as possible

 

in the U.K., the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and the Northern Ireland assembly all use a variant of proportional represtation.
 

In the NI system rather than voting just for a single candidate, voters rank candidates in order of preference 1,2,3 and so on.

 

what that means in practice is if each candidate only gets around 30% of the ‘1’s but candidate C gets 80% of the ‘2’s then they are the one elected to office as they have managed to get the greatest amount of support.

 

Hope that helps

Edited January 27, 2023 by phil-b259

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, Phil Parker said:

 

Most of that was dealing with the sticky carpet in the Bree Louise pub I suspect. That must have been hazardous waste!

Carpet? Sheer Luxury.

Oop North you are lucky to get clean flagstones, most just have trodden earth.............🙂

[corneliuslundie]

Wots' wrong with straw?

And yes, the answer to the question about "first past the post" was buried in one of the earlier posts: horse racing. No proportional representation there. And the same applies to many sports such as running, cycling motor racing, swimming etc.

But let's get back to HS2. I think we can forget today's ramblings as they all turned out to be based on what appears to haver been an invented news story.

What would be interesting to see though would be the passenger numbers on the lines which may or may not have lost traffic to the Elizabeth Line. That would tell us whether it was just modal switch or new traffic.

Jonathan

[martin_wynne]

6 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

An MP ‘wins’ their seat simply by getting a majority of votes cast for them - much like in a horse race it’s the first horse past ‘the winning post’ is the winner of the race.

 

No it isn't. In a horse race you know where the post is before you start, and it doesn't move.

 

In an election there is no way of knowing how many votes you will need to win. You don't know how many votes will be cast, and you don't know how many of them your opponents will get. There is no target, post, winning line, or any other fixed object or number that has to be got past. The saying "first past the post" is utterly meaningless. The question is, do those who use it know this and use it anyway, or do they not know it?

 

Martin.

[AY Mod]

1 hour ago, martin_wynne said:

Where is the "post" that has to be got past? A post occupies a fixed position.

 

I'd say the 'post' (a finishing post) is actually 326 MPs (at current number of members) and is at a national level where a government can be formed rather than a 'post' at constituency level.

[martin_wynne]

2 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

I'd say the 'post' is actually 326 MPs (at current number of members) and is at a national level where a government can be formed rather than a 'post' at constituency level.

 

Agreed, but that system applies to almost all governments world-wide. It would still apply even if some different proportional system was used for electing individual MPs, which is where the term "first past the post" is normally used to describe the present system.

 

Actually, I have worked it out. The post in question is the one holding the microphone at the election count. The winner gets the first chance to use it to thank his mother-in-law's next-door neighbour and everyone who knows who they are for all their help. And then walk on past it.

 

Martin.

[Edwin_m]

I think the answer is that First Past the Post is a stupid name for what many would argue is a stupid system.  There are plenty of stupid names around - how much of the West Coast Main Line is in sight of the coast or even the nearest railway to it?  

[Ron Ron Ron]

3 hours ago, roythebus1 said:

…..And another bit of news that hasn't been revealed yet that I know of, my son who has contacts with XR and some of the HS2 protestors informs me that Boris Johnson's brother is the estate agent dealing with Euston Square.

 

 

1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

Usual inventive story from protest groups - neither of Boris Johnson's two brothers have any involvement in an estate agency  or indeed anything to do with property development (unless Jo is being less than truthful on his House of Lords register of interests).  Lwo works for Price Waterhouse.…..

Typical of XR and similar groups to promote completely made up BS stories and conspiracy theories.

Total nonsense in this case, but some people just accept this sort of thing as fact.

 

 

.

[Bernard Lamb]

1 hour ago, corneliuslundie said:

Wots' wrong with straw?

And yes, the answer to the question about "first past the post" was buried in one of the earlier posts: horse racing. No proportional representation there. And the same applies to many sports such as running, cycling motor racing, swimming etc.

But let's get back to HS2. I think we can forget today's ramblings as they all turned out to be based on what appears to haver been an invented news story.

What would be interesting to see though would be the passenger numbers on the lines which may or may not have lost traffic to the Elizabeth Line. That would tell us whether it was just modal switch or new traffic.

Jonathan

That is what I find odd.

The total number of passengers is well down on pre pandemic levels yet the Elizabeth Line has over 50% more passengers than predicted. There must be trains on some lines that are virtually empty at certain times.

Bernard

[Ron Ron Ron]

13 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

That is what I find odd.

The total number of passengers is well down on pre pandemic levels yet the Elizabeth Line has over 50% more passengers than predicted. There must be trains on some lines that are virtually empty at certain times.

Bernard

What passenger numbers are well down?

TfL passenger numbers are running higher than pre-pandemic levels.

 

The Elizabeth Line has captured part of LUL’s traffic, by not only providing direct access to Central London from the outside, but by providing quite a number of better connecting routes across the central area. Then there’s the Heathrow passenger traffic on top.

Don’t forget that the EL was also intended to provide much needed “relieve” to the overcrowded Central Line.

 

 

.

 

 

 

.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Ron Ron Ron

[corneliuslundie]

"TfL passenger numbers are running higher than pre-pandemic levels."

That is interesting as the "gossip" has been suggesting that numbers on public transport are still well down on pre-Covid levels because people are still nervous and because of large numbers working from home.

Certainly around here in mid Wales withy a high elderly population, public transport use is well down most of the time. 

But evidently in other areas the story is different, and the gossip may be just that.

Jonathan

[Ron Ron Ron]

7 minutes ago, corneliuslundie said:

…..Certainly around here in mid Wales withy a high elderly population, public transport use is well down most of the time. 

But evidently in other areas the story is different, and the gossip may be just that.

 

That’s why I asked Bernard,  “What passenger numbers are well down?”

The picture appears to vary across the nation, so I think it unwise to use generalisations.

For example, Transport for London’s have bounced right back, even if more people are working from home.

Well before the pandemic, the  Elizabeth Line was predicted to be heavily used from day one.

Post-covid, it’s exceeding expectations and the full service introduction is still 5 months away.

 

Back to HS2……

 

 

.

[GoingUnderground]

22 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

..... The volume of luggage laden passengers from Heathrow being a highlighted issue.

 

.

I think it's disgraceful that passengers getting on at Heathrow are bringing their luggage on to the trains. Just because the line serves Heathrow doesn't give them the right to clutter up the carriages with their heavy and bulky suitcases.

[scots region]

3 hours ago, APOLLO said:

Crap services on the north WCML tonight, some trains cancelled, some terminating short, most late. This shambolic state of affairs is getting to be normality. Up 'ere in the NW we want reliable affordable services NOW. 

 

HS2 = Jam Tomorrow - all just for for London bound / departing passengers, no use at all for most up here. 

 

 And no, I'm not at all against HS2, just that it's soaking up all the capital investment pot. Don't cancel it, pare it back money and time wise to a reasonable, affordable level. I don't want to go to London (or Olde Oak Ham factory !!) at over 200mph (though that's not nearly fast enough to get out of that cesspit !!!!).

 

Money would be better spent where the worst problems are - i.e. Deansgate - Oxford Rd - Piccadilly 4 tracking etc. Anyone been to Platforms 13 & 14 at Piccadilly recently ? - the other day it was sheer ***** chaos at 3pm. The expensive Ordsall Chord has just one train per hour so I have read - constrained by the above line being at full capacity. Just not acceptable.

 

Brit15

 

 

 

HS2 is not a perfect solution, but the enemy of good is not bad, its perfection. A paired back, slowed down, smaller or cancelled HS2 means rail investment in this country is dead for another generation. There is not a politician breathing in this country who's ready to eat the costs of cancelling HS2 and turn around and fund anything else. 

[scots region]

10 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

That’s why I asked Bernard,  “What passenger numbers are well down?”

The picture appears to vary across the nation, so I think it unwise to use generalisations.

For example, Transport for London’s have bounced right back, even if more people are working from home.

Well before the pandemic, the  Elizabeth Line was predicted to be heavily used from day one.

Post-covid, it’s exceeding expectations and the full service introduction is still 5 months away.

 

Back to HS2……

 

 

.

 

And thats the double standard public transport is held to.

 

'Service fails to exceed projected passenger expectations, its a overpriced white elephant, get rid of it!'

'Service exceeds expectations, its an overcrowded white elephant, get rid of it!' 

[Fishoutofwater]

3 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

grater share of the vote

that must be hard cheese!