Panic buying

[rockershovel]

I'm still doing my usual amount of driving, having two weeks left of the Ipswich job, my daughter's long-delayed move having finally taken place and the bike racing season not quite over. I haven't had any real problems filling up, because I've been seeing a pattern of filling stations suddenly having fuel at completely unpredictable times, so I just start looking at filling stations after 100 miles or so and refilling as opportunity presents. I realise that this is hardly a general strategy but it is working for me. Following the Law of Unintended Consequences, I start a new job for Anglian Water after that, meaning I can cycle to the office and putting fuel in the pickup is their problem....

[Rivercider]

9 hours ago, John M Upton said:

One thing that I can't fathom out though is if we have a shortage of HGV drivers, container ships stuck outside ports unable to load and supposedly major shortfalls of essential supplies across the board, how come lorry loads of Halloween and Christmas tat have still managed to make it into the shops?

 

Bit of a massive fail in the prioritising department there....

Has some of that stock been sitting in warehouses since last Xmas as it could not be sold then due to lockdown last year?

 

cheers

[Rivercider]

11 hours ago, Denbridge said:

I would hardly call the media's reporting that of facts. The True fact was that FIVE petrol stations, from a UK total of 8,380 were without fuel for a very brief period. The media took this non event and turned it into a crisis, instigating nationwide panic. 

Had this not happened, the nation would have carried on as normal. We wouldn't have queues at the pumps and stations wouldn't be running out of fuel. We would be none the wiser and there wouldn't be the current ridiculous scenario we are now seeing.

Our mainstream media is a disgrace and should be held accountable.

Since 2000 there has been a 35% reduction in the number of filling stations, from over 12,000 to 8380. Now I accept that some of the closures may have been small filling stations but I wonder how that has affected the actual number of pumps available, and the forecourt storage capacity. The loss of one in three filling stations over 20 years must have had a detrimental impact in the current situation, and reduced the ability of the industry to cope with a surge in demand,

 

cheers

[hayfield]

13 hours ago, SamThomas said:

I'm not condoning the HGV driver but what many people do not understand is that most light vehicle speedometers tend to over read so you were probably doing 45/46 mph.

HGV speedometers (excepting a minirity of dodgy firms who have sets of "calibration" wheels/tyres & those from certain EU countries which I won't name in case the snowflakes get upset) are calibrated which is why people get upset when they are doing an indicated 50 mph and get overtaken by an HGV doing an actual 50 mph.

 

Sam

 

I accept this and my cruise control is 1 MPH below my speedometer

 

But

1  All 4 lanes in this section were doing the same speed

2 I had a safe 2 car distance between the car in front

3 The Royal Mail lorry at times was too close

4 The warning speed is the maximum not minimum

5 I could not move into either lanes beside me or go faster without putting me or others in danger

 

Allowing HGV's to keep momentum is no reason for me to change lanes even if I could if I am keeping up with the vehicles in front of me, likewise I can only change lanes when it is safe to do so, I can understand it is frustrating being stuck behind slow moving vehicles, but it is something we all have to suffer 

[Jonboy]

10 hours ago, John M Upton said:

One thing that I can't fathom out though is if we have a shortage of HGV drivers, container ships stuck outside ports unable to load and supposedly major shortfalls of essential supplies across the board, how come lorry loads of Halloween and Christmas tat have still managed to make it into the shops?

 

Bit of a massive fail in the prioritising department there....

Our Halloween and Christmas stock, that all goes to small independent shops, is typically ordered in January and arrives June through September (Halloween in June, Xmas July to September). Our competitors run on a similar timetable.

 

We got our first Halloween container in mid September and the Xmas delivery’s start this week. The stock was ready in the normal timescales but we have struggled to get it on a vessel.

 

Our freight agents managed to get our stock in two weeks ahead of our competitors (and the resulting spike in demand almost broke our warehouse team).

 

We are seeing the hauliers book final delivery to our warehouse almost as soon as the vessel leaves Asia/USA, instead of as it reaches the uk port and we have had to take afternoon delivery slots on almost every container. This is a pain as it means you are almost always the drivers second run and are at the whim of whatever traffic, unloading and port delays the driver has already encountered and you have to hope there are no issues unloading such as pallets having shifted in transit needing handball (whereas morning deliveries often mean the driver is there before the team arrive).

[hayfield]

11 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

Sorry John to bring you to book on this.  Companies have been warning a completely deaf government for many many months.  They have not let the situation build up, the government through inaction has allowed it. 

 

Please also note: this is not just petrol companies it relates to your local supermarket as well.  If nothing happens then expect them to be the next to express the problems through lack of stock.

 

They (collectively) have asked for a speed up in testing of those drivers wanting an HGV  licence.  Response - nothing happened.

They have asked for a relaxation on using EU drivers.  Response - no - well not until after the brown and smelly had hit the fan.    And then 5000 drivers until 24/12 - quickly changed to 28/2 after the single finger responses from  Europe.

 

The media reported the facts.  Petrol stations without fuel (not many but for those in the know the start of an increasing problem) and BP reporting their average stocks at the pumps down 33%.  The public were told by the media not to panic.  There is plenty of petrol.  They panicked but in fairness, their reaction based on little fact and much fear was the same as mine would have been based on years in logistics and being able to read the runes.

 

Yes there is lots of fuel but not where it is needed at the pumps.

 

So those who think this is all nonsense, think on.  the next time your expected delivery of a new xxx from Hel-dap-bach-by is delayed.  No complaints.  There is plenty of stock - in China.

 

 

 

The fact that so many stations (not just BP) stocked out so quickly 

1.  Shows stocks were generally down at the forecourt

2.  The total vulnerability of the UK fuel supply from refinery to point of sale

3.  In all probability there genuinely was a severe driver shortage across the board.  

 

Where you are wrong is that this has been coming for years, I am not talking about the past 2 weeks, most companies here and in Western Europe have taken advantage of cheap Eastern Europe Labour.

 

They should have been planning for this over the past 5 or 10 years, its not just HGV drivers, most industries have taken advantage of cheap labour, all employers have been aware of this issue for years, that there would be a shortfall of labour.

 

Then the shops, filling stations etc have been planning deliveries on the just in time method, these will not work as well when labour is short ( and transport disruption). Those who have been planning logistics have got it wrong. These have been deliberate measures designed to keep prices low. Certainly in retail over the past 10 years staff numbers have been reduced, now in some areas its showing as all the slack has been squeezed out of the system

 

Down to the directors and senior management failing to train up employees for their own staff requirements. And maintain a decent working environment for existing employees.

[Jonboy]

I personally would suggest there is a element of blame on the retailers customers demanding the lowest prices at all times, and the subsequent squeeze on margins and capital employed for this long sustained race to the bottom.

 

Is it simply capitalism, or a very long game of robbing Peter to pay Paul?

[Neil]

Isn't 'cheap foreign labour' just another way of expressing 'market forces at work' which for some time we have been led to believe is good as 'competition leads to a better deal for the customer'.

[rockershovel]

5 minutes ago, Rivercider said:

Since 2000 there has been a 35% reduction in the number of filling stations, from over 12,000 to 8380. Now I accept that some of the closures may have been small filling stations but I wonder how that has affected the actual number of pumps available, and the forecourt storage capacity. The loss of one in three filling stations over 20 years must have had a detrimental impact in the current situation, and reduced the ability of the industry to cope with a surge in demand,

 

cheers

I'm not sure about that. There is definitely a trend towards LARGER filling stations (the old 4-pump local fillup is now largely gone, while forecourts with 8 or 16 pumps are now common on main routes and supermarkets). However there has been an extended period during which whole sectors of the economy have been arbitrarily shut down, without warning or at times in contradiction to yesterday's stated policy, or tomorrow's. One effect of that is that fuel stocks have been allowed to run down, because that's how the system operates.

[phil-b259]

22 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

Down to the directors and senior management failing to train up employees for their own staff requirements. And maintain a decent working environment for existing employees.

 

Its all very easy to blame the 'evil bosses' - but the truth is they were responding to consumers / shareholder greed which put low prices before almost everything else.

 

Rather than trying to offload blame onto others, its about time the average Brit took some responsibility for the mess THEY and the pursuit of what amounts to the 'greed is good', political thinking which has dominated the scene for over two decades.

[ejstubbs]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

most industries have taken advantage of cheap labour

 

They are pretty much obliged to, due to their responsibilities to the shareholders.  It takes a strong chairman and a supportive board to say: "we're paying more for <j random commodity*> on a point of principle/enlightened policy".  Even: "...because we know that the current situation can't last for ever," would likely get pushback suggesting that, while it would reasonable to plan for that eventuality, in the mean time we'd like you to keep the profits that we're used to flowing thank-you-very-much.

 

* And yes, HGV drivers and other roles in workforce tend very much regarded as "commodities" in a lot of industries.  I doubt many would hold back when/if the opportunity arises to replace them with self-driving lorries.

[alastairq]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

 

Sam

 

I accept this and my cruise control is 1 MPH below my speedometer

 

But

1  All 4 lanes in this section were doing the same speed

2 I had a safe 2 car distance between the car in front

3 The Royal Mail lorry at times was too close

4 The warning speed is the maximum not minimum

5 I could not move into either lanes beside me or go faster without putting me or others in danger

 

Allowing HGV's to keep momentum is no reason for me to change lanes even if I could if I am keeping up with the vehicles in front of me, likewise I can only change lanes when it is safe to do so, I can understand it is frustrating being stuck behind slow moving vehicles, but it is something we all have to suffer 

 I fully understand [and have much experience of] the frustration that LGV drivers [HGV's disappeared in the 1970's]....undergo regarding other types of vehicel, and speeds.

However, there is another reason , aside from sizes & weights, that a Cat C licence category is rather more stringently assessed than, for example, a Cat B.

 

The LGV driver has been assessed [and trained, if they but understood it all at the time] to make full allowance for the fact that other road users may not, and are not compelled to, understand the problems faced by an LGV driver. [Or a PCV driver]

 

So if I am driving along at a true 48 mph within a 50 mph limit, and an LGV gains on me from behind, that is the problem of the LGV driver, not mine. If my speedo states 50 mph, regardless of 'accuracy' [it will always be within the lawfully required limits of accuracy].....then, if yours says different, too bad!  The LGV driver can easily knock 2 or 3 K's off their cruise control.

Intimidation of other road users can be deemed a traffic offence.  No LGV driver could ever pass a Cat C driving test by displaying intimidating, or 'bullying' tactics towards other road users..

 

There is absolutely no difference between the standards of driving having to be displayed on a driving test, and any other time.

Anyone who thinks so, has no understanding of what the training, & testing, of drivers actually involves...which is a very common trait amongst all students undergoing training of any sort.

 

Of the above, I have considerable professional experience. 

 

In many ways , it dismays me to witness LGV drivers intimidating others. I understand why it happens, on a human level...since not every LGV-licensed] driver possesses the sense of responsibility and duty, towards the Law , and others, that might be expected of someone doing the job I was involved with.

In the end, most LGV drivers are much like most car drivers....susceptible to all the influences and misconceptions regarding driving.

 

It would be nice if an LGV driver considered the effect of the size [for example] of their vehicle might have upn other road users...and operate it accordingly.

 

Those who don't give a damn when whizzing their lorry down a road at 30 mph, within a foot of a standing pedestrian, just because the speed limit is 30 mph, without a thought as to the effect their lorry might have on that pedestrian [even if nether touches each other.], are not  living up to the standards of consideration their license actually imposes upon them.

 

But, it is human nature not to give a damn about others.....and LGV drivers in general are no exception.

Edited October 3, 2021 by alastairq

[Not Jeremy]

53 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Its all very easy to blame the 'evil bosses' - but the truth is they were responding to consumers / shareholder greed which put low prices before almost everything else.

 

Rather than trying to offload blame onto others, its about time the average Brit took some responsibility for the mess THEY and the pursuit of what amounts to the 'greed is good', political thinking which has dominated the scene for over two decades.

Hmmm

 

Off topic, so apologies and feel free to not get drawn into anything, but given your stance I'd be interested to know what you think of what has happened/is happening to the Post Office?

 

Certainly not "consumer driven" is it?

[57xx]

11 hours ago, black and decker boy said:

Having checked U-Switch dot com earlier today, you’ll find you cannot switch easily as due to price volatility, the vast majority of deals have been withdrawn. U-Switch offered me no deals, yes, zero.

 

it seems we are all in for an energy price  hike this winter.

 

 

To balance things out and stop the scaremongering, here's what u-Switch actually said when I had a look today:
 

Quote

 

We’re sorry, there are no plans available right now through Uswitch

Rising energy prices mean there are less cheap deals available right now.

Don’t worry. Following the October increase, your current rates cannot rise until 1 April 2022 as they’re protected by the energy price cap. If a better deal becomes available, you have no exit fee so you’ll be free to switch.

We’re working hard to get better deals available to you soon.

 

 

So, no, we're not all in for price hikes this winter.

[boxbrownie]

13 hours ago, SamThomas said:

Still would not encompass the self employed & those working (until IR35 kicked in) under limited companies.

Of course not, it wouldn’t be a encompass all solution, but a majority is better than none.

[boxbrownie]

12 hours ago, PhilJ W said:

That is appalling, I would change my supplier if I had such an increase. Not that I haven't had an increase but my supplier has the lowest increase and is amongst the cheapest, and is highly unlikely to fail.

Phil, all energy prices across the board are rising at a silly rate, last week 20% alone……the small energy companies have been taking such marginal profits just to attract customers that those that didn’t hedge enough are going bust now, our contract runs out end of Dec and I expect the next “deal” to be hundreds of pounds per year more than we pay now.

 

If I am lucky the rates may have stabilised a bit by then, but they certainly will never be as low as have been.

[phil-b259]

7 minutes ago, Not Jeremy said:

Hmmm

 

Off topic, so apologies and feel free to not get drawn into anything, but given your stance I'd be interested to know what you think of what has happened/is happening to the Post Office?

 

Certainly not "consumer driven" is it?

 

If I understand you right this is an allusion to something completely different - namely the 'public versus private ownership debate'. I think I have made it clear before that the 'dead hand of government' or management by the Treasury can be just as ruinous to the front line delivery as the worst private sector actions. Its why I'm so hostile to the RMTs 'nationalise everything' approach for starters.

 

As for 'consumer driven' - Humans are fundamentally selfish types! Any examination of human history will show that reality - and its a significant reason why we have become the technologically advanced civilisation we see today. However that selfish streak means that its easily to be succeeded into believing that our own needs are superior to others.

 

Traditionally this individualistic attitude was kept in check by giving grater importance to business and political polices which were not 'consumer focused' and could instead look at the broader picture - be it retaining local employment rather than outsourcing or not having to worry about hostile takeovers from venture capitalists by remaining a Ltd company.

 

The 'consumer is king' allied to a low tax, low regulation economy has radically altered that balance. Yes for consumers they get ever lower prices and the feeling of power - yet that has come at significant cost to human well-being with the slashing of T&Cs and an over reliance on cheap labour needed to sustain it.

 

The HGV crisis was a classic case - why invest in high wages, decent parking and rest facilities for truckers when you can recruit overseas labour who will work for less and put up with s***ting in hedgerows (due to the abysmal level of truck driver facilities on our road network) thus keeping prices and taxes low.

 

As the old saying goes 'you reap what you sow' - and what we are now seeing is the direct result of the neo-liberal, low tax, low regulation, consumer focused agenda which has been embraced over the past three decades.

[SamThomas]

2 hours ago, hayfield said:

 

Sam

 

I accept this and my cruise control is 1 MPH below my speedometer

 

But

1  All 4 lanes in this section were doing the same speed

2 I had a safe 2 car distance between the car in front

3 The Royal Mail lorry at times was too close

4 The warning speed is the maximum not minimum

5 I could not move into either lanes beside me or go faster without putting me or others in danger

 

Allowing HGV's to keep momentum is no reason for me to change lanes even if I could if I am keeping up with the vehicles in front of me, likewise I can only change lanes when it is safe to do so, I can understand it is frustrating being stuck behind slow moving vehicles, but it is something we all have to suffer 

The reason for my post was simply to point out to many people that HGV's have calibrated speedometers, not to enter into a discussion regarding actual road conditions at the time, especially regarding the actions of the RM driver.

 

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Jonboy said:

I personally would suggest there is a element of blame on the retailers customers demanding the lowest prices at all times, and the subsequent squeeze on margins and capital employed for this long sustained race to the bottom.

 

Is it simply capitalism, or a very long game of robbing Peter to pay Paul?

I cannot remember the last time I saw any customers outside any store with banners demanding lower prices, this argument is always put out (usually to do with farm produce and dairy) by the stores as an excuse, it’s the stores just wanting to be the cheapest to attract the customers, it is the stores who have been racing to the bottom not the customers.

[phil-b259]

2 hours ago, boxbrownie said:

I cannot remember the last time I saw any customers outside any store with banners demanding lower prices, this argument is always put out (usually to do with farm produce and dairy) by the stores as an excuse, it’s the stores just wanting to be the cheapest to attract the customers, it is the stores who have been racing to the bottom not the customers.

 

Total nonsense!

 

If consumers wanting the cheapest prices doesn't matter then why put so much advertising effort into boasting how much cheaper you are than your competitors?

 

If low prices are not such a draw explain why the biggest supermarkets (and these days online retailers) are those who sell stuff the cheapest? (i.e. why is ASDA so much bigger than Waitrose)

 

No, stop making excuse. Consumers are selfish and want to pay as little as possible - understandable in some ways (and yes, I am guilty of succumbing on occasion) - but that has consequences. Without any form of regulation to restrain things it DOES directly lead to outsourcing, cost cutting  and an reliance in cheap labour.

 

You mention dairy - we used to have something called the Milk Marketing board designed to help ensure Farmers would never end up being driven out of business due to the low price of milk. That got abolished in the name of 'low regulation' and 'harnessing the power of the free market to lower prices' yet within a decade the race to the bottom price wise by retailers and the embracing of said 'free market to lower prices' led to many farmers going out of business.

 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2021 by phil-b259

[Reorte]

25 minutes ago, boxbrownie said:

I cannot remember the last time I saw any customers outside any store with banners demanding lower prices, this argument is always put out (usually to do with farm produce and dairy) by the stores as an excuse, it’s the stores just wanting to be the cheapest to attract the customers, it is the stores who have been racing to the bottom not the customers.

 

It's obviously not a literal demand in that sense but it is demand in the economic "supply and demand" sense. People will go for cheap. Not everyone, not all the time, but enough that it results in everything getting squeezed. The whole thing can turn in to a vicious circle of race to the bottom. And I think it's true to say that all the arguments are true - it's also good for customers, business has little choice (it's that or go out of business, with the exceptions usually only being fairly niche, or with a very strong brand), and businesses are always happy to cut costs via efficiency. So you've got good and bad sounding reasons there, and all of them are true. It's certainly the process that means we're not scraping a living in a pre-industrial country, but that doesn't mean that it can't get carried too far either.

 

The quandry for most individuals is that they want cheap (just look how many go on about bargains!) but they also want a reliable job they get paid well for. The cheaper stuff is the better off they are on the same pay, but they're more likely to end up being paid less. Where's the best balance? (looking at things purely in economic terms - there can be social impacts too, e.g. look at Amazon warehouses popping up like toadstools in autumn and half deserted high streets).

Edited October 3, 2021 by Reorte

[boxbrownie]

56 minutes ago, 57xx said:

 

 

To balance things out and stop the scaremongering, here's what u-Switch actually said when I had a look today:
 

 

So, no, we're not all in for price hikes this winter.

Not all, but those that have a contract ending in the next few months will have little choice but to accept the much higher prices, or even if the GOV raise the fuel cap price it’ll hit more than just those.

 

It didn’t look like scaremongering just a fore warning of what is actually happening.

[boxbrownie]

9 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Total nonsense!

 

You mention diary - we used to have something called the Milk Marketing board designed to help ensure Farmers would never end up being driven out of business due to the low price of milk. That got abolished in the name of 'low regulation' and 'harnessing the power of the free market to lower prices' yet within a decade the race to the bottom price wise by retailers and the embracing of said 'free market to lower prices'.

 

 

 

Don’t lecture me (or my family) on farming business, we had an awful lot of good friends be forced out of business due to the deregulation of gate prices, the only way farmers can actually make money nowadays is to expand and buy up farms which are closing, when the bank manager sees your land has increased from 1500 to 3000 acres he will lend money, when they get a farmer with 150 acres walk in asking to extend a loan because a buyer has once again reduced the buyout price of stock they get laughed at, if they manage to see a manger at all!

 

Forget it I am not getting into this…..it boils my blood.

[hayfield]

14 hours ago, 30801 said:

Well that's my energy prices going for a bit of a hike.

 

 

Thanks for this dismal reminder, however it is making my new solar panels an even better investment, the mathematics were worked out on 16p per kwh on sunny days I am saving on average 80 per day. days like yesterday were a write off, but as I said even in autumn I have seen a 40% reduction in costs

 

But I guess many are like me, leaving unnecessarily too many lights on. Perhaps having too many items on standby. My son in Law has installed smart switches on his tv's which turns the power off when they are asleep and out working

 

5 years ago I installed a smart thermostat (Tado) it has saved me hundreds of £'s. It turns itself off when we are not at home, likewise when it notices doors or windows open and on less cold days reacts more slowly to coming on . As it happened my thermostat broke and it was as cheap to fit one of these systems as pay for a new thermostat to be fitted.  

[hayfield]

13 hours ago, John M Upton said:

One thing that I can't fathom out though is if we have a shortage of HGV drivers, container ships stuck outside ports unable to load and supposedly major shortfalls of essential supplies across the board, how come lorry loads of Halloween and Christmas tat have still managed to make it into the shops?

 

Bit of a massive fail in the prioritising department there....

 

John

 

Stores start building up stocks for Christmas from the summer, initially starting with non perishable stocks. Certainly there are not enough lorries/staff/warehouse space to supply stores what they require in the 2 weeks prior to Christmas

 

Christmas week Easter eggs arrive