Lockdown’s Last Lingerings - (Covid since L2 ended)

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Did anyone listen to the Reith Lectures by the former Governor of the Bank of England?

 

Very interesting, because he put into eloquent words, for the consumption of ‘money people’, how the obsession with attempting to assign a monetary value to everything, and externalising as much cost as possible (which any capitalist enterprise will always do - that’s economics, not politics, BTW), has warped our perceptions and adversely affected the way the world works, particularly in terms of un-sustainability.

 

When a guy from that background is saying ‘we have to get beyond the current way of thinking, for our own good’, you know something needs to change, even if you didn’t know it before.

Whilst I very much agree with the sentiment I think one of the big drivers about using money is that it gives us an easily comparable number. You can work out a monetary value of two things, two approaches, whatever, and put them side by side and see clearly and unambiguously the costs and benefits, without any subjectivity (although of course any estimate still has an uncertainty). That obviously has a lot of appeal over any approach which will inevitably be subjective. Of course you can argue that putting that much value on money as opposed to anything else is subjective in its own right (and I'd agree). My personal take for some time is whatever maximises happiness rather than money is the way to go, but it's hard to measure and what can make one person happy can make another miserable.

[hayfield]

23 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

 

I'm afraid I regard the provision of these things by employers as a non-negotiable part of having a just and fair society. While obviously there will be a need to reflect the time spent on the company's payroll in terms of the specific levels of benefit received the principle of having them is sound.

 

 

 

Which rather goes to show the dangers of focusing on short term monetary values rather than playing the long game. Yes it is accepted that in the Casino like share trading environment, the genuine* words 'long term' are non existent - but that again comes back to the political environment which has seen such activity as highly desirable and encouraged it over many decades.

 

 

* long term = a decade or more, not just a couple of years even though the later might seem like it if you like gambling on share prices

 

If its off topic then do not reply as it encourages going further off topic. 

 

[Nearholmer]

Reorte,

 

He explored all that.

 

It was an exploration, and a highlighting of problems and possibilities, rather than a set of hard proposals.

 

Good to listen to while model-making.

 

K

[Neil]

Last night Newsnight showed what the 78,000 deaths due to Covid looked like. Here's the sobering video on the Mirror's website.

[Nick C]

We now have more Covid deaths per day, than Australia has had in total...

[Reorte]

Third vaccine approved. Whatever opinions about the overall handling at least we're pretty close to the top of the league in our vaccination programme.

[Dagworth]

Now apparently 1 in 30 in London infected. 
 

 

 

Andi

[Nearholmer]

I’m afraid I now really lack faith in the ability of ‘lockdown’ as currently constituted to prevent ‘hospital meltdown’, and expect us to get even more locked down very soon.

 

Locally, the rate has plateaued at just below 1000/100k.week, or is maybe rising slowly, and the hospital is now filling to overflowing at a rate of 20-30 extra patients each day. And that on the back of a younger than average demographic.

 

Feels to me as if all businesses that don’t provide near-term essential services might have to have to close in order to cut-down contacts. There is a pretty big ‘light engineering and tech’ sector here which is still working on the ‘you can’t do it from home basis’, whereas I think it was all shut during the first lockdown, for instance.

 

It feels very odd, because in our immediate neighbourhood it is very, very quiet, but factories and the like are clearly busy, because their staff car parks are full.

 

 

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, Dagworth said:

Now apparently 1 in 30 in London infected.

 

 

Surrey and Sussex did the same (declared a "Major Incident") on Thursday!

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-55565632

['CHARD]

1 hour ago, Dagworth said:

Now apparently 1 in 30 in London infected. 
 

 

 

Andi

 

For one senile moment, I forgot that Boris Johnson was no longer mayor of London, and attributed this rather bleak announcement to the great man himself.

[cessna152towser]

2 hours ago, Reorte said:

Third vaccine approved. Whatever opinions about the overall handling at least we're pretty close to the top of the league in our vaccination programme.

Please forgive my cynicism.

I  agree that in terms of numbers vaccinated against Covid we come out tops over our friends on the European mainland.

However, as far as the Moderna is concerned, I have friends in USA who have already had this vaccine injected into them, yet UK is well down the queue and is unlikely to receive supplies before April.

I do have some concern that the European Medicines Agency say that they need to do further checking of test results and quality control on the AstraZeneca before they can approve it, and are unlikely to be able to approve it before the end of January.  I'm hoping our UK authorities haven't taken any shortcuts for the sake of prestige in being first to approve our home grown product. 

In the rush to vaccinate against Covid, the promised programme of Flu vaccinations appears to have evaporated and my wife is still waiting on hers.  In a more normal year she would have received it during October or November.

 

[Reorte]

8 minutes ago, cessna152towser said:

Please forgive my cynicism.

I  agree that in terms of numbers vaccinated against Covid we come out tops over our friends on the European mainland.

However, as far as the Moderna is concerned, I have friends in USA who have already had this vaccine injected into them, yet UK is well down the queue and is unlikely to receive supplies before April.

On that particular vaccine, but overall the UK is off to a very good start in terms of getting people vaccinated, and this is another positive step. Yes, it might not be perfect and it might start to fall apart later down the line but save that criticism for if it happens.

[vaughan45]

This figure has been reported for several days. As far as I remember the Mayor/GLA don't have direct operational or financial control of the London NHS, so I am uncertain how the additional funding released to the GLA as a result of declaring a 'major incident' will be used to relieve NHS hospital pressures. Although as Chair of the London Strategic Coordinating Group I assume he can redirect resources such as using fire service personnel to staff ambulances etc. Not sure where they will find the additional ambulance vehicles they need though, unless there is some form of strategic reserve or the ability to co-opt private ambulances.  

 

However another effect of this declaration may be to allow the GLA to request help from other local authorities / organisations outside of London as happened after the 2005 tube bombings (I was working for a local authority in Hertfordshire at the time and remember various services being put on standby in case assistance was requested), but as these authorities are overstretched themselves, so not sure what they would be in a position to provide.

 

I see from the local media here in East Anglia, that local hospitals are taking patients from both Essex and London, much to the dismay of some locals who worry that as the prevalence here increases (there are some areas of Norfolk heading towards 1000/100K) there will be no capacity to treat them.

Edited January 8, 2021 by vaughan45
Clarity & date correction

[Reorte]

Vaccination numbers on the coronavirus dashboard site now (although since it's per week there aren't a lot of data points yet).

 

['CHARD]

37 minutes ago, vaughan45 said:

 as happened after the 2007 tube bombings 

 

 

2005, surely?

[vaughan45]

4 minutes ago, 'CHARD said:

 

2005, surely?

Typo, now corrected thanks

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, cessna152towser said:

Please forgive my cynicism.

I  agree that in terms of numbers vaccinated against Covid we come out tops over our friends on the European mainland.

However, as far as the Moderna is concerned, I have friends in USA who have already had this vaccine injected into them, yet UK is well down the queue and is unlikely to receive supplies before April.

I do have some concern that the European Medicines Agency say that they need to do further checking of test results and quality control on the AstraZeneca before they can approve it, and are unlikely to be able to approve it before the end of January.  I'm hoping our UK authorities haven't taken any shortcuts for the sake of prestige in being first to approve our home grown product. 

In the rush to vaccinate against Covid, the promised programme of Flu vaccinations appears to have evaporated and my wife is still waiting on hers.  In a more normal year she would have received it during October or November.

 

 

 

As far as the Flu vaccine this year, it was just as easy and quick this year to both book and have them

 

Covid injections, my daughters farther in law had his second injection on new years eve and friends in the village had their second jab at our local health centre Tuesday or Wednesday, though we are very lucky that our village health centre has been in the first wave of Covid injections

 

Look at the mess it seems to be in France, seemingly putting paperwork first

 

I think as a country we have done marvels in both research and treatments, top in Europe for testing and starting the vaccinations, comparing the united states with a small country is an unequal comparison, plus the Moderna vaccine was only passes for use today, we have given more doses of the Oxford vaccine than the USA, but its not passed the regulators there

 

You may well be right about the Oxford vaccine but by delaying using it will cost many lives, sometimes you have to make impossible decisions, like delaying the second dose. You will only know how good the decisions were after the event, when the boat is sinking any life belt is better than none. Doing nothing costs lives  

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, vaughan45 said:

Not sure where they will find the additional ambulance vehicles they need though,

 

One thing I'm pretty certain that it allows is LFB crew to drive ambulances, and help with handling stretchers etc, spreading the number of available paramedics better. That then allows, for example, getting a thereby-released paramedic and basic kit to a patient by "not ambulance" vehicle, allowing the patient to be assessed/stabilised and a decision made about whether an ambulance is needed.

[vaughan45]

11 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

One thing I'm pretty certain that it allows is LFB crew to drive ambulances, and help with handling stretchers etc, spreading the number of available paramedics better. That then allows, for example, getting a thereby-released paramedic and basic kit to a patient by "not ambulance" vehicle, allowing the patient to be assessed/stabilised and a decision made about whether an ambulance is needed.

Very true, although for some patients (not just Covid ones) I suspect the basic kit may not be sufficient. I seem to vaguely remember that when I had a medical emergency a couple of years the paramedics first priority was to get me into the ambulance so they could hook me up the various bits of kit. However due to nature of the incident my memory of it is somewhat sketchy as I was drifting in and out of consciousness.

[Pete the Elaner]

28 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

You may well be right about the Oxford vaccine but by delaying using it will cost many lives, sometimes you have to make impossible decisions, like delaying the second dose. You will only know how good the decisions were after the event, when the boat is sinking any life belt is better than none. Doing nothing costs lives  

 

This is a very tough decision. Vaccines are usually tested for years but for every day these are delayed, many people are dying.

[Pete the Elaner]

4 hours ago, Nick C said:

We now have more Covid deaths per day, than Australia has had in total...

True, but were you just stating a figure or trying to suggest something?

[Nearholmer]

Booking passage for the antipodes?

[Zero Gravitas]

If we assume for a moment that about 50 million people need to be vaccinated (to make the maths easier), and each person needs two doses, then if I million does per week can be administered, then it will take two years to vaccinate that 50 million.

 

2 million a week, and it takes a year

4 million a week, 6 months - and so on...

 

We are a very long way from being out of the woods.

[boxbrownie]

2 hours ago, cessna152towser said:

 

In the rush to vaccinate against Covid, the promised programme of Flu vaccinations appears to have evaporated and my wife is still waiting on hers.  In a more normal year she would have received it during October or November.

 

I had mine just before Christmas, it was delayed from November due to my new knee replacement but there were no  issues with flu jabs down here.

Edited January 8, 2021 by boxbrownie

[cessna152towser]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

As far as the Flu vaccine this year, it was just as easy and quick this year to both book and have them

That depends on where you live.   I got mine but my wife is still waiting for hers.   She has tried several times to book an appointment.   Can't even buy the flu jab privately as the local pharmacy who previously offered to do them for £10 were told to use all their supplies this winter for nominated key workers.