Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[TheQ]

My parents got their second jab today, we are due ours in May,  then we can go see my parents for the first time in 13 months.

 

For type 1 diabetics it's not just the injection but the regular stabbing in the fingers for the sugar level test.

[monkeysarefun]

New Guinea is currently at crisis point covid wise. An Australian medical team there did a random sample of 500 tests, 250 came back positive.  Although we here  don't currently have our own vaccine production quite ready nor have sufficient quantities in country for our needs, the government has sent 8000 doses to inoculate the NG front-line medical workers.

 

In addition the Australian government has sent an urgent request to the EU to divert the next 1 million AZ doses intended for us here to New Guinea instead at the  highest priority. Given that the EU is not using the doses themselves  at the moment I'm sure they'll do all they can to help.

 

Obviously Australia doesn't want this disaster to unfold right on our doorstep because it will be our hospitals that get inundated with COVID patients  once the NG health system collapses, with its attendant risks of escape into the community, but the developed  world should pay more attention to these smaller countries because they are potential sources of new, possibly vaccine resistant strains instead of squabbling among themselves like little kids.

Edited March 17, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[Ohmisterporter]

Great-grandson come home from school with the news that someone in his bubble has tested positive, so they are all to stay at home, not sure for how long though. With all the schools having gone back we can expect infection figures to rise among parents and grand parents. Not me though, I am keeping well away: shielding until 31st March anyway.

[Bernard Lamb]

4 hours ago, Hobby said:

Which one did he get, Bernard? (I'm assuming not the AZ one!!)

Postponed for two weeks.

I will not comment or speculate any further.

Bernard

[chris p bacon]

1 hour ago, monkeysarefun said:

Given that the EU is not using the doses themselves  at the moment I'm sure they'll do all they can to help.

 

I admire your optimism.....

[monkeysarefun]

16 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

 

I admire your optimism.....

Yeah I know, if they can't even stick a dose of vaccine into  the people in their  own country the chances of them getting the third world organised seems fairly remote, but someone's got to look out for the poorer countries.  

[chris p bacon]

I agree, I think we should be sending a proportion of the vaccines we make here straight to poorer countries. I know the EU are crying out for them but they're big enough too look after themselves.

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, monkeysarefun said:

New Guinea is currently at crisis point covid wise. An Australian medical team there did a random sample of 500 tests, 250 came back positive.  Although we here  don't currently have our own vaccine production quite ready nor have sufficient quantities in country for our needs, the government has sent 8000 doses to inoculate the NG front-line medical workers.

 

In addition the Australian government has sent an urgent request to the EU to divert the next 1 million AZ doses intended for us here to New Guinea instead at the  highest priority. Given that the EU is not using the doses themselves  at the moment I'm sure they'll do all they can to help.

 

Obviously Australia doesn't want this disaster to unfold right on our doorstep because it will be our hospitals that get inundated with COVID patients  once the NG health system collapses, with its attendant risks of escape into the community, but the developed  world should pay more attention to these smaller countries because they are potential sources of new, possibly vaccine resistant strains instead of squabbling among themselves like little kids.

 

The EU is getting very irritable at the moment, they openly admit they got it terribly wrong, then some members have been very slow at starting the vaccinations, the member states are blaming the EU, the EU in turn are now blaming the member states

 

The EU as you know is starting to want to limit their exports, plus apparently they are again demanding the UK sends them our own vaccine.

 

A week ago the rollout minister stated we were about to double our vaccinations, tonight it is reported that vaccine supplies will now reduce in April.

 

The good news is that whilst infection rates seem to have stalled at about 5,000 a day, these are now primarily in the younger age groups. 49% of the adult population has had at least 1 injection, which basically covers the most at risk groups. In testing the oldest age group now has a very high levels of antibodies, which is also increasing in all other ages. Hospitalizations and death rates are still declining.

 

I would imagine that even if vaccine wars start, given our own production facilities which are both on stream and about to come on line, the UK is in a much better state than any other European country.

 

Looking at Europe they do actually need all the help they can muster . Many member states are experiencing very high peaks of infections which do not seem to be under control yet. they desperately need more vaccines and I guess their first priority must be to look after their own population. I don't think we can morally demand to receive vaccine from a country/s  that are in a desperate and far worse situation than ourselves. If anything perhaps we should now be supporting them as we have benefited greatly from the millions of Pfizer doses we have received.

 

Very worrying but interesting times.

[hayfield]

32 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

 

I admire your optimism.....

 

Dave given events this afternoon there is no chance of this

[hayfield]

5 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

I agree, I think we should be sending a proportion of the vaccines we make here straight to poorer countries. I know the EU are crying out for them but they're big enough too look after themselves.

 

They may be big enough, but are they capable. Given what's happened to date this must be in question

[APOLLO]

34 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

I agree, I think we should be sending a proportion of the vaccines we make here straight to poorer countries. I know the EU are crying out for them but they're big enough too look after themselves.

 

As written on every airline emergency card re the oxygen masks when deployed "Fit your mask FIRST then help others"

 

Same with the vaccine.

 

Brit15

[chris p bacon]

26 minutes ago, hayfield said:

I don't think we can morally demand to receive vaccine from a country/s  that are in a desperate and far worse situation than ourselves.

Morally...probaby not....Contractually ..Yes.

 

If we have a contract with Pfizer that guarantees a certain number of supplies then they are contractually obliged to send them. The UK signed contracts before others and Pfizer agreed to a delivery schedule.  we have lost more people than any other country in the EU but they are now threatening to restrict exports to the UK.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/45877605

 

Something to note from the article is this paragraph 

 

One possibility being discussed is to use Article 122 of the EU treaty, which allows measures to be taken "if severe difficulties arise in the supply of certain products". Those measures could in theory include export bans and the waiving of patent and intellectual property rights on vaccines.

 

I would wonder what Pfizer thinks of that..

[chris p bacon]

6 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

Morally...probaby not....Contractually ..Yes.

In reference to this I found this article.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-differences-between-the-eu-and-uk-astrazeneca-contracts/

 

An interesting paragraph from it.

 

This core difference, according to a lawyer familiar with the development of the U.K. text, can be chalked up to the fact that the contract sealed with London was written by people with significant experience of purchasing agreements, specifically drug-buying deals. The European Commission’s contract, by contrast, shows a lack of commercial common sense, in the lawyer’s view.

 

 

[hayfield]

25 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

Morally...probaby not....Contractually ..Yes.

 

If we have a contract with Pfizer that guarantees a certain number of supplies then they are contractually obliged to send them. The UK signed contracts before others and Pfizer agreed to a delivery schedule.  we have lost more people than any other country in the EU but they are now threatening to restrict exports to the UK.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/45877605

 

Something to note from the article is this paragraph 

 

One possibility being discussed is to use Article 122 of the EU treaty, which allows measures to be taken "if severe difficulties arise in the supply of certain products". Those measures could in theory include export bans and the waiving of patent and intellectual property rights on vaccines.

 

I would wonder what Pfizer thinks of that..

 

Dwarfs the closure of the Irish border spat

 

In one way possession is 9/10ths of the law, as you say we have contracts. But they are with the company not the EU. To be quite honest we could save millions if Pfizer default

 

We have contracts of first in line for 100 million Oxford AZ plus many millions of doses of 2 other different versions.

 

As far as intellectual rights AZ is half European and they have factories in Belgium, Holland and at least Italy. Plus its not for profit and they will be paying AZ for it. A great pity we have allowed it to be sold to 1st world countries profit free. Pity Trump is still no in charge as he would have sent his SEAL team in.

 

I think we have already given in or done a deal, in  judging by the sudden turnaround of vaccine availability

12 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

In reference to this I found this article.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-key-differences-between-the-eu-and-uk-astrazeneca-contracts/

 

An interesting paragraph from it.

 

This core difference, according to a lawyer familiar with the development of the U.K. text, can be chalked up to the fact that the contract sealed with London was written by people with significant experience of purchasing agreements, specifically drug-buying deals. The European Commission’s contract, by contrast, shows a lack of commercial common sense, in the lawyer’s view.

 

 

 

What ever else happened, our management of the vaccine from design to injection has been shear brilliance from top to bottom.

 

We still have people moaning about PPE, but every country had similar problems/issues. 3 ministers/MP's of the German ruling party have resigned over PPE scandal's. The Netherlands are now feeling very exposed since we left the EU, they are having an election this week and some are saying the next thing is N(l)exit. The smaller Eastern members are feeling a bit left out, and Ireland are requesting any surplus supplies the larger members may have, plus expected the UK to assist.

 

 

Edited March 17, 2021 by hayfield

[lapford34102]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

A week ago the rollout minister stated we were about to double our vaccinations, tonight it is reported that vaccine supplies will now reduce in April.

Worth noting the NHS letter specifically mentions that it's first doses that are going to be delayed some presumably they've got enough to ensure the second dose programme continues. However it does take some swallowing that one week a minister says jabs are going to increase in number then a week later.......... Maybe it won't be as long as four weeks in the end.

This country has been through a lot over the last year and I wonder whether a no bullship explanation would have been a better approach. Whatever the reason people would at least know why and we could all get on rather than speculate and probably point fingers.

Stu

 

 

[Pete the Elaner]

5 minutes ago, lapford34102 said:

Worth noting the NHS letter specifically mentions that it's first doses that are going to be delayed some presumably they've got enough to ensure the second dose programme continues. However it does take some swallowing that one week a minister says jabs are going to increase in number then a week later.......... Maybe it won't be as long as four weeks in the end.

This country has been through a lot over the last year and I wonder whether a no bullship explanation would have been a better approach. Whatever the reason people would at least know why and we could all get on rather than speculate and probably point fingers.

Stu

 

 

 

First doses will inevitably slow down. It is simple mathematics.

Until now, vaccination centres have been dealing mainly with 1st doses. They have almost certainly been working flat out & been doing a very good job.

An increasing number of those who have had their 1st dose are now due their 2nd. Assuming vaccination centres remain working at capacity, each 2nd dose administered means 1 less 1st dose will be possible.

[lapford34102]

13 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

First doses will inevitably slow down. It is simple mathematics.

Yes but when you get reports like this from a few days ago

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-03-15/covid-vaccine-rollout-why-the-next-few-weeks-are-critical-if-we-are-to-stay-on-top-of-the-virus

this does look to be unexpected.  Perhaps the 10 million from India aren't up to scratch.  Whatever the reason  I'd prefer something better than "lumpy"

Stu

 

Edited March 17, 2021 by lapford34102
poor english

[Pete the Elaner]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

 

What ever else happened, our management of the vaccine from design to injection has been shear brilliance from top to bottom.

 

 

There was some luck involved.

Scientific research can easily hit a dead end no matter how much money your pour into it, as has happened at Pasteur's labs. They followed a logical course of action but hit a major snag, which can happen. It could easily have been the other way around.

If the Oxford vaccine had been delayed, many would be accusing the government of throwing away a fortune by backing a white elephant.

[Andy Hayter]

Just a few thoughts on AZ vaccine production in Europe.

 

AZ have 3 production plants - 2 in the UK and 1 in the Netherlands.  The Netherlands plant has an admitted problem in producing the volumes promised.

AZ have warned that there will be shortages of their vaccine in Q2 compared with what was promised.

The UK has been giving up to 300k jabs per day of all vaccine types but the majority would seem to be AZ.

Once the vaccine has been produced it has to be put into vials and AZ have 2 plants for this, one in Wrexham and another in Germany.

The Wrexham plant had a stated capacity of 150k shots per day.

So it looks as if some UK production is being put into vials in Germany.

Von der Leyen has said she could stop exports of vaccines "produced" in the EU to countries with higher vaccination rates than the EU.

 

Is anyone joining the dots up in the same way as I am?

 

If so that is perhaps not something you would want to announce to the public and might then chose to suggest that supply can sometimes be "lumpy".

[chris p bacon]

There is also the Moderna vaccine due into the UK during April (IIRC), this is also produced in the EU. 

[hayfield]

8 hours ago, lapford34102 said:

Yes but when you get reports like this from a few days ago

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-03-15/covid-vaccine-rollout-why-the-next-few-weeks-are-critical-if-we-are-to-stay-on-top-of-the-virus

this does look to be unexpected.  Perhaps the 10 million from India aren't up to scratch.  Whatever the reason  I'd prefer something better than "lumpy"

Stu

 

 

Spot on the 2nd batch of 5m from India has been reported this morning to be the issue, plus I guess the threat from the EU

 

 

 

[hayfield]

7 hours ago, chris p bacon said:

There is also the Moderna vaccine due into the UK during April (IIRC), this is also produced in the EU. 

 

Dave

 

We have 2 other plants up and running for 2 other vaccines, whilst one has not been authorised by the UK yet. Any news when these are likely to be on stream

 

 

 

 

[hayfield]

8 hours ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

There was some luck involved.

Scientific research can easily hit a dead end no matter how much money your pour into it, as has happened at Pasteur's labs. They followed a logical course of action but hit a major snag, which can happen. It could easily have been the other way around.

If the Oxford vaccine had been delayed, many would be accusing the government of throwing away a fortune by backing a white elephant.

 

As Arnold Parmer is quoted, the more I practice the luckier I get

 

The first piece of brilliance was to get the right professional in charge of the project, she kick started the program and insured the plan was well thought through from design to production

The speed of decision making through out the whole process including regulatory approval was also a huge help, as was the huge financial backing. 

 

None of the above was lucky, no body plans to fail !! Many have failed by poor planning

 

The Oxford vaccine was less of a gamble as it was already 4 years into development and very early on it was successfully altered for covid, we backed or rather ordered other vaccines as an alternative supply / insurance if any failed

 

Again good planning from industry professionals 

 

The NHS is the keystone of our vaccination roll out, ably assisted by the forces and volunteers. Perhaps this is where the luck occurred, is we have a ready made national health provider in situ, one of the best armed forces used to urgent deployment and our very willing army of volunteers 

 

The more we learn about what happened in the background the more impressive it looks

 

On the other hand it is seen that both the EU and its member states were in most cases well behind our curve, they are admitting they took too long to act and made too many mistakes. Bad luck or just bad planning and too much bureaucracy ? 

[Hobby]

9 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

The UK has been giving up to 300k jabs per day of all vaccine types but the majority would seem to be AZ.

 

According to a link I put up many pages ago, the vaccine figures for the UK are roughly spilt 50/50 with Pfizer and AZ, with Pfizer slightly in the lead. Can't find that link, though! Remember the Pfizer vaccine had a head start.

Edited March 18, 2021 by Hobby

[boxbrownie]

13 hours ago, Ohmisterporter said:

Great-grandson come home from school with the news that someone in his bubble has tested positive, so they are all to stay at home, not sure for how long though. With all the schools having gone back we can expect infection figures to rise among parents and grand parents. Not me though, I am keeping well away: shielding until 31st March anyway.

Granddaughter’s pre school was put into isolation last week as three members of one family tested positive, early this week we were told another family had been positive now.....luckily she has been home schooling with us for the past month (long story) so instead of just getting two short lessons a day when the teacher is in her break (now that’s dedication!) we have three 30 minutes lessons a day.......the afternoon story time I like