Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, woodenhead said:

I think the Scotland Level 3 is political shenanigans aimed displaying she cares for Scotland and the UK Government is being reckless.

 

So far the evidence is showing that the Indian strain infection is displaying hospitalisation in mainly unvaccinated groups.  So a big vaccination drive will go some way to prove the efficacy of the vaccination programme if it stops the spike in a few weeks.   Then we can look forward to a full opening from 21st June, if it doesn't then the Government will have to rethink what happens next.

 

I am glad though that there has been no flipflopping when it comes to easing lockdown earlier as demanded by many, nor any further lockdowns as demanded by others - the vaccine appears to be doing it's job and until we have evidence it isn't we need to keep moving forwards to normality.

 

Your quite right there, the message is quite clear that there needs to be at least the 5 week buffer between the changes in the rules and they have stuck with it. Certainly they have thrown everything they could at the problem, from some acting too late others not early enough. What ever is said we are at the forefront of dealing with this particular problem from a mass infection situation.

 

As for the devolved governments, at least the health authorities seem to be acting together, as well as the politicians given they want to be seen as independent.   

[hayfield]

18 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

Do you have any evidence for the statement that people have broken the rules and so spread specifically the Indian variant?

 

I suggest that a more likely or at least as likely explanation arises from the English version of home quarantine which strikes me to be as water tight as a tea strainer.

 

Person returns from orange country and is required to self isolate.  Said person does self isolate but lives in a small multi-generational habitation.  Person is required to perform self testing which does rely on said person really stuffing the swab to the very back of the throat and up to the top of the nose.  Neither of these is pleasant.  Consequently a number of self tests do not pick up virus that is present because the person has not performed the test in the manner required - even if they believe they have.  So our self isolated person does not immediately test as positive.  Meanwhile the remainder of the extended family can mix with him (in fact can hardly avoid him) and can at the same time mix with others in the wider community - but still following all of the rules.  Lo and behold you have a local outbreak.

 

 

Andy

 

From a BBC report "In Bolton there are 18 people in hospital with coronavirus, with the majority of those not having the jab despite being eligible, the health secretary said."

 

Latest is that it is thought current vaccines work against the "Indian variant" after lab test results, clearly being vaccinated is the first line of defence

[Andy Hayter]

So still  no evidence that people with the Indian variant have broken the rules - well not until vaccination is compulsory.   It is of course worrying that the take up of vaccines within ethnic minorities has been lower and one would hope for a change.  At least the UK has a much lower level of vaccine negativity than here, although the vaccination centre I attended yesterday was very well attended.  

 

In fairness I have to say that the French quarantine system also relies on people voluntarily self isolating (and so is rather weak) but one big difference is that the PCR tests, which are rather critical, are carried out by an expert so the results are much more reliable.  

[hayfield]

2 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

So still  no evidence that people with the Indian variant have broken the rules - well not until vaccination is compulsory.   It is of course worrying that the take up of vaccines within ethnic minorities has been lower and one would hope for a change.  At least the UK has a much lower level of vaccine negativity than here, although the vaccination centre I attended yesterday was very well attended.  

 

In fairness I have to say that the French quarantine system also relies on people voluntarily self isolating (and so is rather weak) but one big difference is that the PCR tests, which are rather critical, are carried out by an expert so the results are much more reliable.  

 

It makes no odds what you think at all. For many months now the UK has been on lockdown, other than essential travel international trips were banned. There were reports that several thousand people were able to beat the current travel regulations in the few days between the announcement and its implementation, with many thousands more unable to book flights. In addition to this many visitors who went to south Asia, to avoid the UK quarantine hotels were returning via Turkey where quarantine was far cheaper. Some of these visits were probably what most would understand as essential, however many more would not have been

 

Foreign travel is still banned until tomorrow, with few exceptions !!. Most of these were not just business people but families. 

 

Its also been well documented that the early spread of the South African, Brazilian and Indian variants were traced back to travel, sadly recently the Indian variant has been found to now be starting to be transmitted by people who have not travelled. These variants did not arrive on their own, they were brought into this country by people. We all have a role to play in keeping each other safe

 

If people follow the rules upon their return, both by isolating and getting tested the chances of onward infections would be greatly reduced. 

[Andy Hayter]

15 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

It makes no odds what you think at all. For many months now the UK has been on lockdown, other than essential travel international trips were banned. There were reports that several thousand people were able to beat the current travel regulations in the few days between the announcement and its implementation,

 

Don't blame people who obey the rules blame the rules and their enforcement. FWIW I think the UK government has shown itself to be incompetent in this but that is just a personal view.  

 

with many thousands more unable to book flights. In addition to this many visitors who went to south Asia, to avoid the UK quarantine hotels were returning via Turkey where quarantine was far cheaper. Some of these visits were probably what most would understand as essential, however many more would not have been

 

Evidence?  Please do remember that UK border control do not just control entry to the UK, they control exit and one has to presume they were happy to let these people exit.

 

15 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

Foreign travel is still banned until tomorrow, with few exceptions !!. Most of these were not just business people but families. 

Evidence?

Why did border control not pick up this massive breach?

 

15 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

Its also been well documented that the early spread of the South African, Brazilian and Indian variants were traced back to travel, sadly recently the Indian variant has been found to now be starting to be transmitted by people who have not travelled. These variants did not arrive on their own, they were brought into this country by people. We all have a role to play in keeping each other safe

 

If people follow the rules upon their return, both by isolating and getting tested the chances of onward infections would be greatly reduced. 

Once again evidence that people have broken rules re the Indian variant?

 

I do have some sympathy with the argument.  I read a few weeks ago that poor old Heathrow was down to 15% of its typical traffic in February and that this amounted to significantly more than 100,000 arrivals.

 

No one is getting locked up.  No one is being sent back.  These are arrivals according to UK rules and laws legitimate travel.  Yes I too was gobsmacked but it is the rules, their implementation and their control that is at fault; not people who are following those rules and laws.

[Hobby]

Andy, that varient doesn't appear out of nowhere. It has to have been brought in. The fact that it's got out shows that someone hasn't done what the government has told them to. The very fact its arrived here is your evidence. The fact that it's currently limited to certain parts of the UK with close connections to India is your evidence. 

 

Or are you just playing Devils advocate. 

[Andy Hayter]

No I am not playing Devil's advocate.  Government rules are there to minimise (not eliminate) the chances of spread.

 

If you want to look for reasons why the Indian variant has appeared in the UK, you need to satisfy yourself about the following points:

 

1.  The outbreak on the Indian subcontinent resulted in Pakistan and Bangladesh both being put on the red list before India.  The number of cases per 100k population was much higher in India than either of the other countries - but this is put down to greater testing levels in India.   So what then is the metric?  Case levels, case levels per 100k, case levels per x% tested or something else?*  Or perhaps common sense (not generally common and certainly not in Westminster) should have said, "Houston we have a problem.  Shut the border."  

* Note Handcock has not been quizzed nor revealed this important fact.

2.  Just by coincidence BJ was supposed to fly out to India to negotiate/conclude a trade deal with India but not Bangladesh or Pakistan.  Just coincidence of course and nothing to do with taking rational scientific decisions.

3.  As soon as the trade meeting was called off as a face to face meeting, India suddenly appeared as a red list candidate, but with a 3 three day delay.  So what else changed?  the infection rate? the testing ratio? Boris's brown underpants?

4.  Who needed to get back from India before the doors shut with a resounding bang?  Maybe a few high level civil servants sent out in advance?  Plus of course anyone likely to be stranded out there - let's say a few thousand UK citizens/residents who had legitimately been let out of the UK .

 

The variant has arisen because infected people have come back from Indian and perhaps earlier from Pakistan and Bangladesh.  I would suggest that the numbers are in part - perhaps greater part - due to government and its inertia/ internal games.  

 

I take objection when people suggest that people (individuals) are to blame when they fully follow advice and laws.  If it goes wrong don't blame people, blame the rules and those that devised them.

[Hobby]

 

11 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

I take objection when people suggest that people (individuals) are to blame when they fully follow advice and laws.  If it goes wrong don't blame people, blame the rules and those that devised them.

 

So you honestly believe that everyone follows the rules! I've said long before this discussion that there shouldn't have been a delay in shutting the border, all you have done is agree with me! However I was saying that we do know where it has come from in this case and we know why it's spread. 

 

I'm sorry but we will not agree with each other on this, my brother lives in one of the areas affected and sees daily the flouting of the rules by the local ethnic population. It doesn't get out by accident, it is because people haven't followed the rules, whether that's having a vaccine (not a rule but common sense), wearing masks and keeping distance.

Edited May 17, 2021 by Hobby

[hayfield]

11 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

No I am not playing Devil's advocate.  Government rules are there to minimise (not eliminate) the chances of spread.

 

The variant has arisen because infected people have come back from Indian and perhaps earlier from Pakistan and Bangladesh.  I would suggest that the numbers are in part - perhaps greater part - due to government and its inertia/ internal games.  

 

I take objection when people suggest that people (individuals) are to blame when they fully follow advice and laws.  If it goes wrong don't blame people, blame the rules and those that devised them.

 

 

Firstly, perhaps it should have been called the south east Asian variant, and as you say the outbreaks may not be down to those returning from India but the whole region of south east Asia

 

I would also assume vast numbers of people who travelled back from these countries have followed the rules, otherwise we would have been in an awful lot more travel

 

However you seem to completely refuse to accept that in the UK there has for months been a ban on foreign travel, from the BBC today

"The ban on foreign travel has also been lifted and replaced with new rules."  Why we are allowing even 15% of Heathrow's normal traffic even given if a lot may internal flights is beyond me. They go through both passport and customs checks and the weak part of the system is not forcing international travellers to quarantine

 

I was not blaming those who do fully follow the rules, if it goes wrong its not the government that cause it its selfish people who fail to follow the rules, the first of which is the ban on foreign travel, for anything but the most essential reasons. Dragging your family across to the other side of the world can hardly fit into this category, then failing upon their return to fully follow the governments requirements on reducing infecting people is again hardly the fault of any government.

 

I agree the vast majority of travellers must have complied. but the syatem will be as good as its weakest link, the first being travelling when its banned

[hayfield]

25 minutes ago, Hobby said:

 

 

So you honestly believe that everyone follows the rules! I've said long before this discussion that there shouldn't have been a delay in shutting the border, all you have done is agree with me! However I was saying that we do know where it has come from in this case which you and we know why it's spread. 

 

I'm sorry but we will not agree with each other on this, my brother lives in one of the areas affected and sees daily the flouting of the rules by the local ethnic population. It doesn't get out by accident, it is because people haven't followed the rules, whether that's having a vaccine (not a rule but common sense), wearing masks and keeping distance.

 

Totally agree with you, the vast majority of us in the UK have painfully kept to the rules, protecting ourselves and others. Not seeing friends and relatives for months, cancelling weddings or not being able to attend those that were allowed, not being able to attend funerals. Cancelling out holidays etc.

 

There have been a few selfish people who have totally ignored these restrictions, both within the UK and outside. Blaming the government for these breaches is totally wrong, its selfish individual's who believe they are exempt from the rules, which is akin in my opinion to drink driving.  

[alastairq]

Well, today is supposed to be the day when  more normality returns.

 

In practically every way, today is the start of the biggest shock to the system, for me!

 

No longer will my behaviour be seen by the world-at-large as suitable, or sensible. No longer will it be seen as 'normal!'

From today, i will be seen as an anti-social, people-hating recluse! 

 

From today, my dislike of using  pubs [for example]  will be seen as 'not normal'....

 

I was indeed quite happy over this apparent 'lockdown', as some would call it, to avoid pubs and cafes, to avoid having to listen to banal, meaningless, or ill-informed small talk, just in the name of being 'sociable!'

 

Now I will be seen as being unusual for still avoiding what the masses seem intent to rush off into.

 

So from now, the return to 'normality' of life will be  as hard for me, as lockdowns appeared to be for the hoi-polloi?

Even the once lovely Pennine Way will be as crowded as any half decent football match!

 

I've just this minute made a trip to my nearest post office, in a village some 3 or 4 miles away, mostly using a major road [in & out of the locaty]....it was absolutely chokka with traffic going the other way....Full of motor cars with folk screaming 'yippee, freedom at last!!' as they head for the nearby east coast....covered as it is in low cloud and light rain!!

 

I don't mind the odd few folks...but the enormous masses [in every sense of the word!] of humanity[if that's the right definition?]....that will doubtless be swarming all over what was once a peaceful and isolated landscape, make me shudder with despair..especially in view of what has happened in our recent past?

 

To find somewhere in this once beautiful land of ours which isn't crowded out with oh-be-joyfuls , is becoming increasingly more difficult! 

 

I shall now enter a phase of pure despair......

 

When, oh when, will life get back to normal, and these masses simply fade away?

 

Am I one of the few who actually enjoyed this 'lockdown?'

 

[Who needs restaurants and meals out, having  to tolerate the big tablefull in the middle with the noisy party?  Give me McDonald's drive-thru any day! Least I can eat in some of the most peaceful surroundings?

 

Finally, I have an appointment for my second jab!

 

I am still somewhat dismayed that, at 70 years old, I am only just receiving my second jab, when in a lot of areas the 40-somethings have already seemed to have head theirs???

 

 

 

[Oldddudders]

9 minutes ago, alastairq said:

I shall now enter a phase of pure despair......

 

When, oh when, will life get back to normal, and these masses simply fade away?

 

Am I one of the few who actually enjoyed this 'lockdown?'

 

[Who needs restaurants and meals out, having  to tolerate the big tablefull in the middle with the noisy party?  Give me McDonald's drive-thru any day! Least I can eat in some of the most peaceful surroundings?

Crikey.

[alastairq]

11 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Crikey.

 One man's freedom is another man's....etc etc...

[woodenhead]

25 minutes ago, alastairq said:

Well, today is supposed to be the day when  more normality returns.

 

In practically every way, today is the start of the biggest shock to the system, for me!

 

No longer will my behaviour be seen by the world-at-large as suitable, or sensible. No longer will it be seen as 'normal!'

From today, i will be seen as an anti-social, people-hating recluse! 

 

From today, my dislike of using  pubs [for example]  will be seen as 'not normal'....

 

I was indeed quite happy over this apparent 'lockdown', as some would call it, to avoid pubs and cafes, to avoid having to listen to banal, meaningless, or ill-informed small talk, just in the name of being 'sociable!'

 

Now I will be seen as being unusual for still avoiding what the masses seem intent to rush off into.

 

So from now, the return to 'normality' of life will be  as hard for me, as lockdowns appeared to be for the hoi-polloi?

Even the once lovely Pennine Way will be as crowded as any half decent football match!

 

I've just this minute made a trip to my nearest post office, in a village some 3 or 4 miles away, mostly using a major road [in & out of the locaty]....it was absolutely chokka with traffic going the other way....Full of motor cars with folk screaming 'yippee, freedom at last!!' as they head for the nearby east coast....covered as it is in low cloud and light rain!!

 

I don't mind the odd few folks...but the enormous masses [in every sense of the word!] of humanity[if that's the right definition?]....that will doubtless be swarming all over what was once a peaceful and isolated landscape, make me shudder with despair..especially in view of what has happened in our recent past?

 

To find somewhere in this once beautiful land of ours which isn't crowded out with oh-be-joyfuls , is becoming increasingly more difficult! 

 

I shall now enter a phase of pure despair......

 

When, oh when, will life get back to normal, and these masses simply fade away?

 

Am I one of the few who actually enjoyed this 'lockdown?'

 

[Who needs restaurants and meals out, having  to tolerate the big tablefull in the middle with the noisy party?  Give me McDonald's drive-thru any day! Least I can eat in some of the most peaceful surroundings?

 

Finally, I have an appointment for my second jab!

 

I am still somewhat dismayed that, at 70 years old, I am only just receiving my second jab, when in a lot of areas the 40-somethings have already seemed to have head theirs???

 

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Crikey.

I do get the point, I'm not a social animal and lockdown has mainly meant more people in environments where they wouldn't normally mass - walking by rivers, out in the country etc.

 

I don't go out in big crowds, I like small groups in relative peace so I can actually understand the conversations going on and not just laughing along when people appear to have said something funny but I cannot actually understand what they'd said.

 

Lockdown and homeworking forced other people to understand what it was like for me to be on a conference call, Teams/Zoom was brilliant, suddenly I could hear what was being discussed again.  This week first Teams meetings where some people were in an office - couldn't hear what they were saying, nor did I know who was speaking and everyone on chat was trying to guess who it was.

 

But I am looking forward to finding all the people who went for walks because there was nothing else to do returning to their old ways in the pubs so I can walk about in peace.

[298]

1 hour ago, alastairq said:

 

Finally, I have an appointment for my second jab!

 

I am still somewhat dismayed that, at 70 years old, I am only just receiving my second jab, when in a lot of areas the 40-somethings have already seemed to have head theirs???

 

 

There may be a couple of reasons for that, I'm in the group that has health issues that qualify them for a flu jab every year as are a significant number of other 40-somethings that were diagnosed with lifelong Asthma due to air quality issues when we were children. 

 

Someone I work with is a year younger but in normal health and he had his first jab not long after me because he lives in a neighbouring city with a low vaccine uptake....

[Pete the Elaner]

I find it interesting to see for real how other countries manage the situation.

We only usually hear about this from media, which is very coloured to say the least, so I was quite interested to see things for myself.

 

I saw a Polish speedway match on TV yesterday. They are allowing partial crowds in over there, as they were last year. They got off lightly from the virus until October & they have not managed to bring this under any sort of control, with over 200 deaths each day.

Either their scientists don't believe that outdoor contact is a risk, or the government are too worried about loss of revenue within industry (& sport). Otherwise there surely would have been a different restriction on crowds compared to last year?

Their idea of a partial crowd seems to be to allow only about 1/4 of the normal crowd but only open 1/4 of the stadium for them, so they are all just as close together. This seems like an empty gesture to me. This is not a normal crowd for them. I've been to a Polish league match & their stadiums are usually fairly full.

 

I will be interested to see the effect of today's restriction ease in the UK, but it will take around a month for it to have an effect, so I think it is quite right to not make any promises about the June target date for the next relaxation.

The UK seems to be about 60% of the way through its vaccination programme, so surely it is still a time to be cautious?

[Reorte]

23 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

I will be interested to see the effect of today's restriction ease in the UK, but it will take around a month for it to have an effect, so I think it is quite right to not make any promises about the June target date for the next relaxation.

The UK seems to be about 60% of the way through its vaccination programme, so surely it is still a time to be cautious?

AIUI it was never supposed to be a fixed timetable, although there's always the risk of being treated as one. A change in May and a month to see what the impact would be seems to be the basis of the June date, which is a reasonable way of approaching things. We might quibble about the details but an approach which boils down to reacting to the situation on the ground (having planned for various possibilities), with the best case course plotted out is surely the way to do it.

[boxbrownie]

4 hours ago, alastairq said:

Well, today is supposed to be the day when  more normality returns.

 

In practically every way, today is the start of the biggest shock to the system, for me!

 

No longer will my behaviour be seen by the world-at-large as suitable, or sensible. No longer will it be seen as 'normal!'

From today, i will be seen as an anti-social, people-hating recluse! 

 

From today, my dislike of using  pubs [for example]  will be seen as 'not normal'....

 

I was indeed quite happy over this apparent 'lockdown', as some would call it, to avoid pubs and cafes, to avoid having to listen to banal, meaningless, or ill-informed small talk, just in the name of being 'sociable!'

 

Now I will be seen as being unusual for still avoiding what the masses seem intent to rush off into.

 

So from now, the return to 'normality' of life will be  as hard for me, as lockdowns appeared to be for the hoi-polloi?

Even the once lovely Pennine Way will be as crowded as any half decent football match!

 

I've just this minute made a trip to my nearest post office, in a village some 3 or 4 miles away, mostly using a major road [in & out of the locaty]....it was absolutely chokka with traffic going the other way....Full of motor cars with folk screaming 'yippee, freedom at last!!' as they head for the nearby east coast....covered as it is in low cloud and light rain!!

 

I don't mind the odd few folks...but the enormous masses [in every sense of the word!] of humanity[if that's the right definition?]....that will doubtless be swarming all over what was once a peaceful and isolated landscape, make me shudder with despair..especially in view of what has happened in our recent past?

 

To find somewhere in this once beautiful land of ours which isn't crowded out with oh-be-joyfuls , is becoming increasingly more difficult! 

 

I shall now enter a phase of pure despair......

 

When, oh when, will life get back to normal, and these masses simply fade away?

 

Am I one of the few who actually enjoyed this 'lockdown?'

 

[Who needs restaurants and meals out, having  to tolerate the big tablefull in the middle with the noisy party?  Give me McDonald's drive-thru any day! Least I can eat in some of the most peaceful surroundings?

 

Finally, I have an appointment for my second jab!

 

I am still somewhat dismayed that, at 70 years old, I am only just receiving my second jab, when in a lot of areas the 40-somethings have already seemed to have head theirs???

 

 

 

We get it completely, this last year (or slightly more) has been lovely for us and a great excuse not to have to (discourage being too harsh a word) welcome friends down here for visits, we moved to Cornwall 7 years ago and bought a nice big house on the coastal path with a separate holiday bungalow on the land but of course before the pandemic we had quite a few friends visit and stay and although we liked seeing them we don’t like seeing them for quite so long  , well we didn’t buy into a “Holiday business” (although our neighbours think we are mad to turn down what was a lucrative income for the previous owner, but we just can’t be arsed).....we like seeing friends and (some) relatives but I have really enjoyed having the bungalow as my modelling spray/painting hobby house with its own toilet, shower, kitchen for tea and biscuits 

 

Unfortunately now already in the past week we have had three heavy “hints” from friends that they would love to see us again.....hmm....OK, bring your own surf board mateys!

[Ohmisterporter]

Can I come down to offer sympathy BB?

[hayfield]

If anyone has any hesitantly thoughts about having the vaccine, especially if they fall into one of the at risk groups need only to look at Bolton

 

The health secretary said anyone who was unsure should look at Bolton, where most people in hospital with Covid were eligible for a jab but had not had one.

 

Trouble is there seems a bit of disquiet over who is at fault

 

But Yasmin Qureshi, the Labour MP for Bolton South East, challenged Mr Hancock's assertion that her constituents had refused the vaccine, blaming poor organisation instead.

 

I seem to remember that certainly at our own health centre  the first group or two had up to 2 hour waits, these were the over 80's and in January. Since then the vaccination centre like reports from may other centres were it worked like clockwork. Both times we visited for jabs the process seemed faultless as on both visits we were seen early, something echoed by many on here. 

 

I do see now in the press there are long queues, not too certain if this is for vaccinations or tests, but seemingly everyone all of a sudden got the message. Lets hope that with all the effort being put into these areas this mini infection wave can be subdued 

[Hobby]

Fear Factor... They see the surge in the Indian variant and suddenly decide it might be a good idea to have the vaccine... The annoying part is that they could have had it done without the queues if they'd taken it up when offered... Better late than never, i suppose...

[boxbrownie]

13 hours ago, Ohmisterporter said:

Can I come down to offer sympathy BB?

Let me just think on that for a one millionth of a second.........

[Hobby]

Just been watching some woman from the alternative SAGE group (the alternative one to the Gov version) and had to turn it off. The language she was using was way over the top and seemed to be aimed at creating a fear factor rather than trying to educate people. These people really need to consider their choice of words better before they speak.

Edited May 18, 2021 by Hobby

[boxbrownie]

17 minutes ago, Hobby said:

Just been watching some woman from the alternative SAGE group (the alternative one to the Gov version) and had to turn it off. The language she was using was way over the top and seemed to be aimed at creating a fear factor rather than trying to educate people. These people really need to consider their choice of words better before they speak.

It amazes me they don't realise it just lessons their authority when they act like that.

[2mm Andy]

Interesting article from the BBC about the decisions and uncertainty around the spread of the Indian variant;

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57150871

 

Andy