Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Pete the Elaner]

6 hours ago, 3rd Rail Exile said:

The final was originally planned to be held in Russia, then in Istanbul when all the venues got moved a year last year due to COVID.  When two English clubs qualified for it UEFA looked to move it to somewhere fans could attend.  Wembley was definitely looked at as a venue, but (if I recall correctly) some of the UEFA officials, sponsors and other hangers-on would have had to quarantine so that wasn't an option for them.  So it ended up in Portugal...

 

I can understand doing it like that, but I don't agree with it. UEFA deserve to get some grief over this.

Other options would have been for restrictions to be modified to allow officials & sponsors into the UK. I certainly don't agree with that because it would allow others to use this as an excuse to argue relaxations for themselves.

It just seems to me that allowing/encouraging several thousand people in teams & fans to mix with less scrutinised people massively increases the chances of bringing the virus back into the country.

I understand that many people will be visiting places like Portugal anyway, but they have officially been discouraged from doing so. Holding a football match with 2 British teams on the continent conflicts with this.

[alastairq]

I was but teasing......although my family tend to take me literally & seriously.

I see Bridlington was fair-to-rammed this weekend?

We used to have a saying, that West Riding folk  used to go to Bridlington, to die.....

Still, wouldn't be any worse than any metropolitan Asda on a weekday?

Certainly, the main roads   are historically somewhere I have avoided for decades, due to the visitor traffic....

Edited May 30, 2021 by alastairq

[stewartingram]

I had to go into Huntingdon town centre on Saturday to pick up my new glasses. It was notable that: a) the place was absolutely rammed; b) that in the street I would guess only 10-15% max had masks on; c) and of those that had masks, about 90% were totally under the chin, and most of the others didn't cover the nose.

Mmmmm.......

 

Stewart

[3rd Rail Exile]

32 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

I can understand doing it like that, but I don't agree with it. UEFA deserve to get some grief over this.

Other options would have been for restrictions to be modified to allow officials & sponsors into the UK. I certainly don't agree with that because it would allow others to use this as an excuse to argue relaxations for themselves.

It just seems to me that allowing/encouraging several thousand people in teams & fans to mix with less scrutinised people massively increases the chances of bringing the virus back into the country.

I understand that many people will be visiting places like Portugal anyway, but they have officially been discouraged from doing so. Holding a football match with 2 British teams on the continent conflicts with this.

I'm not 100% comfortable with it myself, but as @John M Upton mentioned up-thread, "It's football. Money talks..."   Any grief should be directed at UEFA, as you suggest...

 

[3rd Rail Exile]

6 minutes ago, stewartingram said:

... b) that in the street I would guess only 10-15% max had masks on; c) and of those that had masks, about 90% were totally under the chin, and most of the others didn't cover the nose.

Mmmmm.......

 

Stewart

But were people putting masks on as they entered shops (which is where we're required by law to wear them).  As far as I was aware, we don't need to wear them in the street as transmission is much less likely in the open air...

[Nearholmer]

I hope to goodness open-air really is proof against the bug, otherwise, based on the number of people who seemed to be congregating at the lake when I drove by earlier, we are doomed.

 

Last summer, we all got into a lather about crowds on beaches, and they seem not to have caused a virus problem, so maybe sunlight is our saviour.

[Andy Hayter]

If sunlight is a saviour, explain India, Turkey, Brazil and many other countries who sunlight quota is higher than N Europe.

[Nearholmer]

Maybe is maybe, and maybe its summer in the round in the UK context, rather than the sun on its own.

 

There are lots of papers that look at whether or not Covid transmission is affected by climate, weather and/or seasonality, and the answer, so far, seems to be something like "it looks as if it probably is, but we're not quite sure yet which factors, and in what combinations, have what degrees of influence".

 

This paper attempts a meta-analysis https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-90300-9 and buried deep within it is this:

 

........ impact of UV radiation over the incidence of COVID-19 was computed but negative correlation was observed. It means that with more UV radiation lesser incidence of COVID-19 can be found. Similarly, rainfall has a positive correlation with COVID-19 incidence.

 

There was a study which found significant negative correlation between UV levels and Covid mortality within Italy, and a US study which also found negative correlation, but the influence of UV was less than the influence of preventive measures such as distancing, mask-wearing, and quarantine.

 

Given how long it takes for papers to get published, all the studies probably need to be updated in the light of recent evidence anyway.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 30, 2021 by Nearholmer

[zarniwhoop]

4 hours ago, Hibelroad said:

A subcutaneous injection should be painless but sometimes the needle catches a nerve which you will feel. It’s luck of the draw and it’s only a quick pin prick, cutting your finger with a craft knife hurts a lot more. I’m not medically qualified but I was subject to a fair few injections last year and was trained to do my own so this is my understanding  from the customer perspective. 

Apart from catching a nerve, for my second jab I was told to fold my arm across my chest to relax it. Never been told that before (years of flu jabs), but I really didn't feel a thing. On the first jab I let my arm hang by my side and minimally felt the needle enter.

[Nearholmer]

There seem to be as many bits of advice as there are vaccinators: my first one was done by a military medic, and she got me to tense my arm, and explained that the best injections are those into well-defined muscle - genuinely didn't feel it; second was from an NHS nurse, who had me do the opposite, relax my arm - did feel it, but only as a sharp pinprick. Either outcome may have been the luck of the draw, rather than the result of what I was asked to do!

[Andy Hayter]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Maybe is maybe, and maybe its summer in the round in the UK context, rather than the sun on its own.

 

There are lots of papers that look at whether or not Covid transmission is affected by climate, weather and/or seasonality, and the answer, so far, seems to be something like "it looks as if it probably is, but we're not quite sure yet which factors, and in what combinations, have what degrees of influence".

 

This paper attempts a meta-analysis https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-90300-9 and buried deep within it is this:

 

........ impact of UV radiation over the incidence of COVID-19 was computed but negative correlation was observed. It means that with more UV radiation lesser incidence of COVID-19 can be found. Similarly, rainfall has a positive correlation with COVID-19 incidence.

 

There was a study which found significant negative correlation between UV levels and Covid mortality within Italy, and a US study which also found negative correlation, but the influence of UV was less than the influence of preventive measures such as distancing, mask-wearing, and quarantine.

 

Given how long it takes for papers to get published, all the studies probably need to be updated in the light of recent evidence anyway.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"but the influence of UV was less than the influence of preventive measures such as distancing, mask-wearing, and quarantine."

 

This may well prove to be a key statement.  It is undoubtedly complex with no single magic bullet but a reliance on sunshine or the summer is in my view dangerous and that statement suggests that such factors are not the prime ones in providing protection.  The problem is that when people believe that summer sun will protect them, that is when you build the basis for the next wave because that is when people stop the distancing and mask wearing.

[298]

2 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

If sunlight is a saviour, explain India, Turkey, Brazil and many other countries who sunlight quota is higher than N Europe.

 

Sunlight also equals heat, in Northern Europe that means people socialise outside but in more warmer climates nearer the equator they may well stay inside or be nearer a variety of air conditioning or cooling systems that don't do much to prevent the spread of diseases at the best of times.

[Nearholmer]

Yes, it could be that for all sorts or combinations of weather, the question should be “Does it draw you outside, or drive you indoors?”. Extremes of any kind tend to drive people indoors (or at least into the shade in the case of heat), so closer together, and in less mobile air.

 

Mind you, I don’t think the mechanisms that make being outdoors better have been completely explained either. Presumably air-movement, diluting virus concentration, is a big part, but I’ve read contradictory reports about the survival of virus in aerosols outdoors, and I don’t think there is yet full consensus on the temperature, humidity, UV combinations that are good/bad at killing it.

 

Anyway, I much prefer outdoors anyway, and we seem to be in for a week of fine weather, at last!

[Hobby]

11 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

I hope to goodness open-air really is proof against the bug

 

From what I've read it is less likely to spread outdoors, still spreads, though, just you are less likely to get it... But there's "outdoors" and "outdoors"... Middle of a large crowd of people at a protest march or rave vs walking in the park...

[hayfield]

11 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

If sunlight is a saviour, explain India, Turkey, Brazil and many other countries who sunlight quota is higher than N Europe.

 

Andy

 

If only it was this simple, the one thing we know is that the virus is mainly caught via the respiratory method, though also at much less risk from physical contact, confined spaces increases the risk greatly, where as in the open the risk reduces, but there is still a risk. Covid hunts out the weak links taking advantage of them

[john new]

13 hours ago, Pete the Elaner said:

 

I can understand doing it like that, but I don't agree with it. UEFA deserve to get some grief over this.

Other options would have been for restrictions to be modified to allow officials & sponsors into the UK. I certainly don't agree with that because it would allow others to use this as an excuse to argue relaxations for themselves.

It just seems to me that allowing/encouraging several thousand people in teams & fans to mix with less scrutinised people massively increases the chances of bringing the virus back into the country.

I understand that many people will be visiting places like Portugal anyway, but they have officially been discouraged from doing so. Holding a football match with 2 British teams on the continent conflicts with this.

Given the fan behaviour clearly visible on the recent televised matches I.e.  the inevitable shouting, singing, hugging, no social distancing, lack of masks etc., if these are test events then the tests have identified good reasons for going back to zero crowds.

 

Also can anyone explain why ordinary choirs, whether religious or secular, are restricted to 30 outdoors with distancing but you can still go in a big en-masse group for a footy match. No sports crowd is going to stay quiet.

[Andy Hayter]

That is exactly my point John (Hayfield) .  So many, too many are saying summer's coming it's all over until the autumn.  Not the expert though.  Lots of reports of predictions of an early new third wave.

[APOLLO]

Extend the June deadline till everyone in the UK is vaccinated, then fully open up. (September ?)

 

Otherwise it's game over for the UK as we knew it in 2019.

 

Brit15

[alastairq]

22 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

Otherwise it's game over for the UK as we knew it in 2019.

 In my view, not such a bad thing, perhaps? 

[Reorte]

23 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

Extend the June deadline till everyone in the UK is vaccinated, then fully open up. (September ?)

 

Otherwise it's game over for the UK as we knew it in 2019.

Going back to Bolton the numbers yesterday for Bolton actually show a drop, although the surrounding areas are now on the rise. But it does suggest that cases can be stamped on fairly quickly. Previously cases started out with the young but then spread to older age groups, there's no sign of this happening to any significant degree there either, which is a big plus for vaccination.

[Hobby]

Interesting thoughts... However... If the majority of over 30s and those at risk have had the vaccine then it's spread around should not take us back to the dark days of 2020, yes it will spread, but the effects on the hospitals will not be the same with most youngsters not needing treatment and the more vulnerable having a reasonable degree of protection. Also our ways of treating the virus in hospitals has changed with the experience they've had and a lot more can be done to lower the risk whilst in there.

 

Quite honestly I don't see any reason to wait until everyone has been vaccinated, in fact if that's the only safe way then we can only open up when everyone in the world has been vaccinated, or do what Aus and NZ have done and ban all people coming in unless they isolate. We have to accept some risk, and we have to accept that the virus will still spread, I feel we are now close to the stage where we can begin to open up properly.

[Neil]

19 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

Extend the June deadline till everyone in the UK is vaccinated, then fully open up. (September ?)

 

Otherwise it's game over for the UK as we knew it in 2019.

 

Brit15

 

It may well be game over anyway. Some non Covid things have changed and will render our experience here in the UK different (I'm thinking the B thing here and it's repercussions for NI and Scotland) and some Covid repercussions will be felt even if fully opened up. I think that there will be amongst some a greater caution when it comes to social mixing particularly mass indoor events. Some (like me) will have become used to the fortnightly shop arriving in a van rather than having to go and collect it. I'll be continuing this long after restrictions have ceased. As Alistair has hinted at above there are some potential benefits to be had with a reordering of things. I would hope that we have had demonstrated those jobs that are key to society functioning, they mostly tend to be those at the low status/low pay end of the spectrum. I'd be pleased to see them get a boost on both counts.

[Neil]

4 minutes ago, Hobby said:

... We have to accept some risk, and we have to accept that the virus will still spread, ...

 

Really? Have to or chose to?

[rocor]

13 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

 

Last summer, we all got into a lather about crowds on beaches, and they seem not to have caused a virus problem, so maybe sunlight is our saviour.

 

A vampire virus?.

[Hobby]

Look at all those countries which had the "best records", Neil, it still spread regardless of what they did. So yes, we have to accept some risk, same as you do when you get into a car and drive down the road, we cannot be mollycoddled for ever... If you look at the  rest of my post what I said was that I believe the risk is now close to being acceptable, subject to some restrictions such as wearing of masks in certain indoor situations, if people are not comfortable with that then that's their choice to continue to hold back, but for the majority I see us close to moving forward. 

Edited May 31, 2021 by Hobby