Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Hobby]

totallyconfused.com!

 

Thanks for trying, chaps!

[adb968008]

I hate to say it, but when one reaches their 70’s, any number of ailments start stacking up.

All it takes is one too many on a tired body to bring it down.

 

Covid is but one issue on that pile, the vaccine might reduce or take the weight of that problem off, but it still leaves the pile of ailments.

 

I think back to William Shakespeare (not the playwright), the first guy to receive the vaccine.. did it really help him ?.. he only lived 5 month after the vaccine, arguably less based on 2nd dose and building immunity… he didn't die of covid.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-57234741

 

I’m not sure statistics on covid patients over 70 dying is particularly relevant if they had a vaccine or not, as sadly it, flu and a common cold, pneumonia all weighs against them.

 

For the elderly, for several more years Covid is unfortunately going to be one of those extra ailments I think, which a vaccine for flu or covid may not make a difference to the outcome of the bodies own strength.

its sad to say, but they are going to die, a higher rate now will inevitably mean a lower rate in the near future as attrition occurs its simply a numbers game, with fitness and luck being part of it…

 

if that starts falling back into the 60’s range, then theres clearly an issue the vaccine hasn't addressed, and with long term covid I dont think that possibility can be ruled out either. By the time its recognised, which maynot be for a few years yet, it may already be too late for that 60’s year olds decade too…and their deaths may not even be recorded as Covid, as their recovery maybe long forgotten at that point even if it it left their body damaged that shortened their life.

Thats why it surprises me the tolerated 1mn+ cases a month policy the government has now…it could be storing up some really big problems for the NHS in the future, unless they don't think its really going to be an issue or they arent thinking about it or just dont have an answer.

Science generally reports 1918 flu infected 1/3 of the world, my mother tells me at one point half of her school class was out in the 1957 pandemic (but it came and went within a month), and that worse viruses in reality fade out between 20-40% population exposure… take that against 69mn in the UK and 8.5mn reported cases, we are really only half way through this, maybe only a 1/4, the vaccines prevented the deaths, but not necessarily the spread… I suspect we all might need boosters next year before it finally starts to retreat.

 

 

Edited October 19, 2021 by adb968008

[Nearholmer]

51 minutes ago, hayfield said:

That bears no resemblance to the figures the BBC reported for August where only 20% of the 80+ were actually vaccinated. the 70 to 79 group was even a smaller percentage

I think you are getting mixed between rates and absolute numbers.

 

The rate of deaths among the unvaccinated in August were high, but there were very few people unvaccinated, so the absolute numbers were low.

 

The same would appear to be the case now, although it would appear that the effectiveness of protection given by vaccination has reduced slightly.

 

Edited October 19, 2021 by Nearholmer

[2750Papyrus]

Apparently, walk-in booster jabs now available locally for those eligible (Sunday onwards for me).

[john new]

If this item on the BBC web news this morning is correct it looks as if the lessons of March 2020 have either (a) already been forgotten at ministerial level or (b) protection of the economy is regarded as a more sacrosanct policy than protecting lives.

 

Surely again reintroducing some precautionary measures, at the very least compulsory mask wearing, is a sensible first move to try and delay (Hopefully stop) more draconian measures being necessary. 

 

Edited October 20, 2021 by john new
Typo

[Hobby]

I'm sure they are taking advice from other experts, this is just one opinion, and one with a vested interest and will obviously plug that view in view of who they are. That's not saying he's right or wrong, just that it's one view and the Government will have other experts and will also be taking their advice and we don't know what their advice is, do we?!!

[hayfield]

37 minutes ago, john new said:

If this item on the BBC web news this morning is correct it looks as if the lessons of March 2020 have either (a) already been forgotten at ministerial level or (b) protection of the economy is regarded as a more sacrosanct policy than protecting lives.

 

Surely again reintroducing some precautionary measures, at the very least compulsory mask wearing, is a sensible first move to try and delay (Hopefully stop) more draconian measures being necessary. 

 

 

14 minutes ago, Hobby said:

I'm sure they are taking advice from other experts, this is just one opinion, and one with a vested interest and will obviously plug that view in view of who they are. That's not saying he's right or wrong, just that it's one view and the Government will have other experts and will also be taking their advice and we don't know what their advice is, do we?!!

 

 

I listened today to someone from Essex health care (either NHS or Essex CC) and he gave the following information

 

Essex as a county has infection rates slightly above the national average which is in the low 400's  (435 appx)

The main area of concern is the senior school ages where the rates per 100,000 are in the 1400's

Junior school children are also much higher than the average

 

On the other hand older people are showing a much lower infection rate and are at the moment a far lesser cause for concern, given the high infection rates hospital admissions are relatively low in comparison

 

Governments have a balancing act and have to take an approach where many factors have to be taken into consideration, knee jerk actions need to be avoided. The main problem is the public as a whole, there are still large groups who for a verity of reasons are unvaccinated, this group in the adult ages are in the majority of those being treated in hospital. I understand that catching covid for children tends to cause a minor infection, but these children go on to infect others. My great niece went on to not only infect her 2 grandparents but also her 2 great grandparents.

 

Yet again the infections are mainly in older school children link last winter, thankfully hospitalizations and deaths are no where near the previous spike levels. Looking at the numbers the biggest bang for your buck would be to treat the main source which is the schools, but this would have a massive impact on many things and would I guess cause a major uproar with educationists.

 

There is no simple answer, may be we will have to opt for plan B. Certainly I am steering clear from older children, which is where the main risk is 

[Nearholmer]

My reading/guess, is that they are working on the basis of either an assumption or forecasts showing that the “school wave” has peaked, which figures last week suggested it might have, and will now decline, helped by half-term holiday next week.

 

Thinking last night about all the numerical stuff we discussed yesterday, it struck me that the message the country has bought into is “protect the NHS”, rather than “protect elderly people”. I guess that many of us conflated the two things, but they aren’t necessarily the same - it may prove possible to keep the NHS functioning, not cancelling procedures, and the economy churning away, without fully protecting elderly people from the life-shortening consequences of covid.

 

Russia seems to have a worse version of our troubles, because vaccine uptake has been so low there (lack of trust in the government!), and in Moscow they have told all 60+yo to shield - although the way it was phrased/reported made it sound more like being put under house arrest that being asked nicely to protect oneself.

 

BTW, where are the stats showing that most hospitalised adults in the U.K. are not fully vaccinated? I’m not convinced it’s true without seeing the stats.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2021 by Nearholmer

[alastairq]

8 minutes ago, hayfield said:

Certainly I am steering clear from older children,

I steer clear of all children..........Folk thought I was a mean, inconsiderate boogah...but now they see my point.

[alastairq]

https://www.channel4.com/news/our-climate-futures

 

Hologram John Snow..the ultimate in social distancing?

 

Anyway, taking a look might prove interesting....?  Especially the one about dengue fever?

 

Soon to be found in a housing estate near you?

 

[If global warming isn't addressed on a bigger scale}

 

Covid will prove to be a mild snottah when compared with what we as a nation will face in the not-too-distant future?

[Neil]

2 hours ago, john new said:

If this item on the BBC web news this morning is correct it looks as if the lessons of March 2020 have either (a) already been forgotten at ministerial level or (b) protection of the economy is regarded as a more sacrosanct policy than protecting lives.

 

Surely again reintroducing some precautionary measures, at the very least compulsory mask wearing, is a sensible first move to try and delay (Hopefully stop) more draconian measures being necessary. 

 

 

Yes I've seen that and come to the same conclusions. Quite why the government would resist  simple precautionary measures that have no economic consequence is  baffling.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Neil

[Dunsignalling]

16 minutes ago, Neil said:

 

Yes I've seen that and come to the same conclusions. Quite why the government would resist  simple precautionary measures that have no economic consequence is  baffling.

I think HMG (and possibly Boris in particular) are averse to re-imposing any visible precautions that will make folk think twice about "feeling good" and behaving "normally".

 

Unfortunately, "they" seem to have almost instantly unlearned last year's lesson that a few minor inconveniences mandated quickly could well avoid the need for another lockdown. 

 

Stand by for the sound of galloping hooves, followed two weeks later by the resounding thud of the stable door being slammed shut. 

 

John

Edited October 20, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Hobby]

Ah well, I see we're back into government bashing again... 

[Dunsignalling]

15 minutes ago, Hobby said:

Ah well, I see we're back into government bashing again... 

Merely assessing HMG's attitude as exhibited on the morning news as I see it.

 

Go in late; go in soft.

 

As before, a reluctance to impose the most minor of restrictions is evident. Also as before, it seems likely they will be imposed eventually, but probably after their maximum potential efficacy has been overtaken by events. 

 

Let's just hope we don't all get lumbered with another full lockdown in consequence.....

 

John 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Hobby]

No you aren't. You are assessing the situation based on one person's views, which happens to suit your own views, but without any other evidence. Nor do you have any proof of what the Gov plan is, nor are you aware of the advice they are receiving. 

 

Both of you have known views and this suits them, personally I shall await for the Gov experts to give us their views and the action of what the Gov should do. One report does not show clear evidence or a clear way forward. 

[hayfield]

5 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Merely assessing HMG's attitude as exhibited on the morning news as I see it.

 

Go in late; go in soft.

 

As before, a reluctance to impose the most minor of restrictions is evident. Also as before, it seems likely they will be imposed eventually, but probably after their maximum potential efficacy has been overtaken by events. 

 

Let's just hope we don't all get lumbered with another full lockdown in consequence.....

 

John 

 

 

 

You are entitled to your opinion, others though have very different thoughts. The biggest stable doors are the junior and senior schools, these are the main areas where the virus is spreading

 

Back in last September when we were in a similar situation, I said I am happy to visit the local pub where at the time there was no or little virus transmission, unlike the two local schools who in the end were shut down early down due to the very high level of infection.. Don't get me wrong I am not saying close down the schools. But rather rather than a scatter gun approach we need to address the main issue(s) which are causing the most problems. 

 

My own extended family have and are suffering, as I said one great niece infected her grandparents and her great grandparents. Now from a different family another great niece and great nephew have caught covid. Thankfully the worst effects of this dreadful virus are being limited due the the vaccination process, and according to the press there are far more unvaccinated people in the covid wards than those who have been vaccinated

 

Simply the risk to unvaccinated people is very high, given the numbers of the younger generation who are infected they certainly need at least to take more care with their interactions with others

 

From Proffessor Whitty today

 

1) If you have not been vaccinated, now is the time. 2) If you are offered a booster please take up the offer. 3) Ventilation, masks in crowded indoor spaces and hand washing remain important

 

One ray of light today is that one of the government bodies are finding that over 90% of their sampling is showing people now have covid antibodies,

[Dunsignalling]

23 minutes ago, Hobby said:

No you aren't. You are assessing the situation based on one person's views, which happens to suit your own views, but without any other evidence. Nor do you have any proof of what the Gov plan is, nor are you aware of the advice they are receiving. 

 

Both of you have known views and this suits them, personally I shall await for the Gov experts to give us their views and the action of what the Gov should do. One report does not show clear evidence or a clear way forward. 

The minister (who was hopefully across Government Policy) speaking on the morning news didn't actually say "We don't intend to do anything that we're not forced to", in so many words but he couldn't have made the position any plainer. 

 

The trouble with deferring any response until one is forced (when dealing with any situation) almost always results in a sub-optimal outcome.

 

Seen it before, reactive and late; lessons at best only partially learned. I've now come to expect it.

 

John

 

For Clarity: I don't consider the other side would be doing significantly better, just that Boris & Co aren't doing well enough or as well as they could be.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Hobby]

You have no evidence that that is the way they are acting though as we don't know what advice they are getting from their advisors. 

 

I haven't any idea either but I don't jump to conclusions based on one story. 

[Neil]

1 hour ago, Hobby said:

...., nor are you aware of the advice they are receiving. . 

 

I think that having read the views of the NHS Confederation we're all aware of that piece of advice that the government have received. If we're considering how the NHS will fare over the coming weeks and months then we've had the advice from those best placed to judge.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Neil
change:- federataion to confederation

[Hobby]

You are only aware of the views that have been expressed by them, you (nor I) are aware of other advice (which could well include other advice/views from others in the NHS) that the Gov are getting. Which is my whole point, you should not base your actions on one piece of advice, especially from an "interested" source but on a range of advice, which is what i believe the Gov are doing. It might well lead them to act as you so clearly want them to... But it may not... We shall see.

[Neil]

18 minutes ago, Hobby said:

You are only aware of the views that have been expressed by them, you (nor I) are aware of other advice (which could well include other advice/views from others in the NHS) that the Gov are getting. .

 

From their website 'The NHS Confederation is the membership organisation that brings together, supports and speaks for the whole healthcare system in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.'

[Dunsignalling]

Perhaps if Government spokespersons didn't leave their statements so open to interpretation, we wouldn't need to interpret them for ourselves.....  

 

John

Edited October 20, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[alastairq]

1 minute ago, Neil said:

 

From their website 'The NHS Confederation is the membership organisation that brings together, supports and speaks for the whole healthcare system in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.'

  Speaks for the whole, etc

 

A bit like the RAC speaking for all motorists? [Like 'eck they do, they're a private commercial company,  they say whatever is good for their shareholders..] 

[Hobby]

22 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Perhaps if Government spokespersons didn't leave their statements so open to interpretation, we wouldn't need to interpret them for ourselves.....  

 

John

 

Think how boring threads like this would be, though!

[andyman7]

3 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

I think HMG (and possibly Boris in particular) are averse to re-imposing any visible precautions that will make folk think twice about "feeling good" and behaving "normally".

 

Unfortunately, "they" seem to have almost instantly unlearned last year's lesson that a few minor inconveniences mandated quickly could well avoid the need for another lockdown. 

 

Stand by for the sound of galloping hooves, followed two weeks later by the resounding thud of the stable door being slammed shut. 

 

John

The point (made in a number of ways by subsequent postings) is that the situation is not static. Last year there was no vaccine and no Delta, so the consequences of lifting restrictions was quite different. This year, vaccination is very obviously massively mitigating the worst effects of the virus; whilst (as Australia and NZ have discovered) Delta is simply too infectious to be eliminated by lockdown measures.

This doesn't mean that the Government approach is optimal; but simply pointing to last year is not evaluating the situation as it is now. I have made the point a number of times that pre-March 2020 no-one even though of lockdown as an option. Having endured two major lockdowns since, it is now accepted that as a nuclear policy option it is a valid one, but one with extraordinary costs and impacts on people's lives.