Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Andy Hayter]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

My point about not being able to find truly dependable figures is important, though.

 

It would not be a good day if we leapt in a particular direction because of what we think/assume/read in the paper etc.; decisions must be based on solid facts.

 

As I've said, I can't find dependable numbers to support the assertion that "Intensive care is full of vaccine decliners". Can anyone point me to some?

 

It may be correct, but like the similar assertions made a few months ago that "the vast majority of those dying from Covid are un-vaccinated", it may not. That proved to be a misunderstanding of the difference in probability of dying if one caught covide after full vaccination, as compared to catching it when not vaccinated at all.

 

Which isn't to say I have the slightest sympathy with anti-vaxxers, merely that I have a great deal of sympathy for cold, hard numbers.

 

EDIT: This contains dependable numbers, and shows that about a third of covid-related hospital admissions, and about a fifth of covid-related deaths, were of un-vaccinated people in the most recent week (early December). See tables 9 and 10.

 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1037987/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-48.pdf

It doesnt anwer the "is intensive care full of vaccine decliners?" question. though. It could be that it is, and that massive resources are being devoted to saving <50yo vaccine decliners. But, that may not be the case.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I sympathise greatly with your desire for hard numbers and equally would like to see some.  However knowing how many beds in ITU are occupied by Covid victims or anti-vax Covid victims may not be the be all and end all.  One set of numbers I heard today was that the average stay in ITU is around 24 hours.  The average stay for a covid victim is 7 days,  No way I can verify the numbers but if broadly true it demonstrates the need to try and keep people out of ITU through covid infection.

[LNER4479]

On 04/12/2021 at 12:56, Nearholmer said:

It’s quite educational to hear what others think.

Go on then. Having read this thread - and its various predecessors - since this whole thing started and occasionally read the odd educational fact myself (in amongst all the hand-wringing and doom n gloom), I'll give it a go. It's late at night, nobody's watching...

 

On 04/12/2021 at 12:42, Hobby said:

I think there are several of us who ... certainly are on the glass half full side of things rather than many people on here's glass half empty!

I'll readily subscribe to the glass full side of the house and do find some of the doom n gloom on here a bit much at times. For those who do genuinely have underlying health reasons to be overly-cautious my sympathies; otherwise ...

 

On 04/12/2021 at 14:18, Halvarras said:

Some of us are ignoring the BBC and monitoring the global situation

On 04/12/2021 at 09:29, Nearholmer said:

IMO, it’s still too early to form a proper judgement of which countries have weathered this best, because the weathering still has a long way to go. We just don’t know yet.

Really? REALLY?! The thing started becoming serious in March 2020; it's now December 2021. That's over 21 months. Vaccines have been created, approved and administered in that time and we can now see their effects. I think that's PLENTY of time to form some sort of judgement.

 

Knowing how much you like facts, I went looking for some. I chose death rates because to me, that seems a pretty good yardstick. I actually found them first on the BBC website; the WHO website just had absolute figures but you surely need to normalise them by population.

 

Anyhow, according to the info, Peru has the worst death rate worldwide at the moment, 618.6 per 100k. The UK is 30th on the list at 216.6 per 100k. Amongst countries worse than us are Italy (26th at 221.7 per 100k) and USA (21st at 235.5 per 100k). There are - admittedly - one or two quirky entries (Gibraltar and San Marino) which you could arguably discount but otherwise these are accumulated figures over a prolonged period of time so there is already a lot we do know.

(to pre-empt anybody mentioning it, I'm sure there is scope for under or mis-reporting death figures but I feel it's a more reliable figure than infection rates for which there's far more scope in that regard)

 

On 04/12/2021 at 08:31, Neil said:

Probably no surprise that our government is judged to have done particularly badly. 

Who's doing the judging? 30th in a worldwide league table doesn't strike me as particularly bad?

 

I also had a look at the vaccine rates which the WHO is quoting as percentage of population. Of those 29 countries above the UK (68.09%), only Italy (73.17%) and Belgium (75.36%) have better rates. Yes, I know a lot of other European countries are fast catching us up - maybe even overtaken us - but I think it's recognised that we were pretty early out of the traps with the vaccine programme.

 

Looking at the UK figures specifically, can I just crave your indulgence and put up the two key graphs that illustrate the impact of the vaccine, as of today:

 

 

 

This - above all - is the data that gives me hope or at least points the way forward. On a pro-rata basis comparing with the Winter 20/21 spike, with the current infection rate we should be looking at around 750-1000 deaths per day ... yet it isn't anywhere near that. Can there be any doubt now that the dominant reason for that is the vaccine programme? For those of us with a reasonably robust immune system (and I apologise again to the unfortunate minority who haven't and therefore have a genuine reason to be particularly cautious), the above data reassures me that being double-jabbed has significantly lowered the risk of becoming seriously ill (or worse) as a result of catching Covid.

 

Yes, right at the moment the UK and the world at large are collectively holding their breath to see how different the Omicron variant turns out to be but the initial indications (report from SA on tonight's news) are that, although it appears to be more contagious, the existing vaccines are doing their job. From what (little) I understand, it is quite normal for viruses to mutate over time ... and vaccines are adjusted accordingly.

 

On 04/12/2021 at 09:17, ikcdab said:

In the UK we are much nearer to normal life and the policy appears to be to let individuals make their own decisions rather than having Draconian rules imposed on them. 

I think we all know that this virus is not going to go away and somehow we have to have a plan to get back to normal, we simply cannot impose lockdowns every few months (as per Europe). Maybe I'm lucky and maybe I am much less risk averse, I for one think we have taken the right route.

Ian C

With you all the way there my friend and this very much accords with my view going forward in terms of living with the new 'normal'. Since the general lifting of lockdown in May, I have:

- got double-jabbed

- been doing regular home LFTs so I know whether I have the thing or not (especially when visiting 80+ year-old parents)

- kept my mask handy and don it by default when entering a shop or using public transport. I will admit to removing it (in England) if I've been sitting in a largely empty railway carriage...

 

Suitably 'armed', I have taken two UK holidays in the summer as a Tour Manager and attended two model railway exhibitions as an exhibitor (as well as numerous other trips out and about, some with overnight stays). Both types of event fall into the category of facilitating people getting out and about and enjoying themselves with all the positive (mental) health benefits that comes with that.

 

On 04/12/2021 at 14:33, Nearholmer said:

It does seem particularly  weird to moan and groan about restrictions in England currently, given that the only one that exists is wearing masks on public transport and in shops. Some restriction!

Now here I'm actually in agreement with you, mainly because, as part of trying to grapple with the new 'normal', I also ventured into Europe last month for the sheer purpose of enjoying travelling around (and - hopefully - practice for taking Euro tours in 2022 as a Tour Manager). Wherever I went, the Covid pass was everything - hotels, restaurants, museums, cafes. Not a problem, show your pass on entry for a quick look and maybe scan of the QR code and you're in. Only takes a moment. If that's what's required to get out and about, fine by me.

(If you're really interested you can read all about it on my Grantham thread starting here)

 

Final thoughts (phew!)

 

This thing isn't going to go away any time soon and is likely to have a very long tail.

 

The so-called Spanish 'flu (Covid's nearest equivalent as a pandemic) is estimated to have killed between 17 and 50 million people worldwide - and at a time (1918-1920) when the world population was nothing like what it is now. Comparisons are odious for many reasons but, especially with effective vaccines, the current pandemic is going to have to go some to reach those sort of figures. Bad though Covid is, do we sometimes lose sense of proportion with the whole thing?

 

What is the trigger whereby the BBC will no longer feature the daily Covid figure in its news bulletins? After all, more people are dying of (in order, because I looked this up as well) dementia, heart disease and cancer than Covid (at its current rate). We don't hear those figures every night? When over 1000 people a day were dying it was quite scary and was definitely 'news'. But now? By continually quoting the figures, is this unwittingly adding to a heightened sense of doom n gloom?

 

For every year you don't do the things you normally did prior to the Virus hitting equates to one year less to get done all the things on your 'to do' list before Anno Domini catches up with you for other reasons

 

Not doing the things you normally did prior to the Virus hitting risks possible adverse mental health problems which may have a worse long terms affect than catching Covid.

 

I don't know if any of that was in anyway interesting or educational but there you go. Tomorrow night, I will resume ongoing preparations for Grantham to attend the BRM Doncaster exhibition in February. See you there?

 

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by LNER4479

[adb968008]

6 hours ago, LNER4479 said:

What is the trigger whereby the BBC will no longer feature the daily Covid figure in its new bulletins?

when the budget gets cut and the number of journalists are reduced.
Until they, they will work through the alphabet of stories..

 

Austerity.. 7 years 2009-2016

Brexit .. 4 years 2016 - 2020

Covid ..

Depression ?

E..

 

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by adb968008

[2750Papyrus]

I would very much like to see Grantham again at the Doncaster show but my attendance will depend upon my personal  "risk/benefit analysis" at the time - much more likely if covid "passports" and wearing of masks were requirements. 

 

[hayfield]

10 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

My point about not being able to find truly dependable figures is important, though.

 

It would not be a good day if we leapt in a particular direction because of what we think/assume/read in the paper etc.; decisions must be based on solid facts.

 

As I've said, I can't find dependable numbers to support the assertion that "Intensive care is full of vaccine decliners". Can anyone point me to some?

 

It may be correct, but like the similar assertions made a few months ago that "the vast majority of those dying from Covid are un-vaccinated", it may not. That proved to be a misunderstanding of the difference in probability of dying if one caught covide after full vaccination, as compared to catching it when not vaccinated at all.

 

Which isn't to say I have the slightest sympathy with anti-vaxxers, merely that I have a great deal of sympathy for cold, hard numbers.

 

EDIT: This contains dependable numbers, and shows that about a third of covid-related hospital admissions, and about a fifth of covid-related deaths, were of un-vaccinated people in the most recent week (early December). See tables 9 and 10.

 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1037987/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-48.pdf

It doesnt anwer the "is intensive care full of vaccine decliners?" question. though. It could be that it is, and that massive resources are being devoted to saving <50yo vaccine decliners. But, that may not be the case.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The one thing to take into consideration is that our figures for covid deaths are "People who have died having tested positive for covid in the past 28 days " I have said before my mother  had liver cancer and died 6 weeks after diagnosis, the death certificate stated bronchitis was the cause of death, everyone knew it was the liver cancer that killed her 

 

No where does it say that they died because of covid. Now is this an international standard of trying to get a handle on the number the deaths caused by covid, or just some way of making sense of a complicated matter.

 

I think you may have said in the past the true measure of covids effect on the population is the excess death rate over the 5 year average 

 

 

[beast66606]

31 minutes ago, 2750Papyrus said:

I would very much like to see Grantham again at the Doncaster show but my attendance will depend upon my personal  "risk/benefit analysis" at the time - much more likely if covid "passports" and wearing of masks were requirements. 

 

 

And no hippos present - they won't get vaccinated and refuse to wear masks*

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59516896

 

*And are therefore murderers.

Edited December 6, 2021 by beast66606

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

when the budget gets cut and the number of journalists are reduced.
Until they, they will work through the alphabet of stories..

 

Austerity.. 7 years 2009-2016

Brexit .. 4 years 2016 - 2020

Covid ..

Depression ?

E..

 

 

 

What has any of this got to do with Covid ?

 

 

[Neil]

7 hours ago, LNER4479 said:

..... Who's doing the judging? 30th in a worldwide league table doesn't strike me as particularly bad? ....

 

However when you compare with other European countries the picture doesn't look that good. Of the old western European countries only Italy (which took a big hit right at the start of the pandemic) and Belgium (?) do worse than the UK, the rest do better or significantly better. Also it seems a bit of a cop out to make comparisons with those that do something worse than you, it dulls any ambition to do better. Comparisons with those that do better shows that there was potential to do better. I'd rather be led by those with the ambition to do as well as Denmark than ones who say 'you know what, we're not as bad as Romania'.

[Nearholmer]

25 minutes ago, hayfield said:

I think you may have said in the past the true measure of covids effect on the population is the excess death rate over the 5 year average 

It probably is a better indicator than most IMO. Reduction in average lifespan is probably another.

 

The trouble with other measures is that the “died from” vs “died with” balance shifts across age groups, so if a hitherto fairly fit 45yo catches Covid and dies (pretty unlikely) it would fairly clearly be “from”, but the far larger number of 80+yo who die with it are also likely to be suffering from other conditions/illnesses, so “with” is more appropriate.

Something that LNER4479 says raises an interesting point: the comparison with other causes of death, dementia, heart-disease etc.

 

The big difference between those and Covid is transmissibility. If a person goes to a crowded model railway exhibition, given the typical demographic, they are almost certain  to rub shoulders with many guys who are suffering from vary degrees of heart disease, and many guys who in the fullness of time will go on to suffer dementia, but in neither case can anyone pass on those unfortunate conditions to anyone else. Covid is more like a cold in the sense of transmissibility, and we all know how easy it is to catch one of those at a model railway exhibition.

 

If heart disease was a transmissible illness, there’d be a fair bit of annoyance vented on those who didn’t bother to take precautions to avoid passing it on.

 

 

 

[APOLLO]

8 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

It probably is a better indicator than most IMO. Reduction in average lifespan is probably another.

 

The trouble with other measures is that the “died from” vs “died with” balance shifts across age groups, so if a hitherto fairly fit 45yo catches Covid and dies (pretty unlikely) it would fairly clearly be “from”, but the far larger number of 80+yo who die with it are also likely to be suffering from other conditions/illnesses, so “with” is more appropriate.

The big difference between those and Covid is transmissibility. If a person goes to a crowded model railway exhibition, given the typical demographic, they are almost certain  to rub shoulders with many guys who are suffering from vary degrees of heart disease, and many guys who in the fullness of time will go on to suffer dementia, but in neither case can anyone pass on those unfortunate conditions to anyone else. Covid is more like a cold in the sense of transmissibility, and we all know how easy it is to catch one of those at a model railway exhibition.

 

I'm with you on this. It is the elderly with health problems that are MOST at risk with Covid. THEY are the ones who need protection the most. And these folks NEED to go out shopping etc. THAT is where we ALL have a responsibility to Hands / Space / Face in both shops and public transport.

 

Pubs, restaurants etc less so, as those at higher risk do not NEED to go there.

 

Brit15

[hayfield]

24 minutes ago, Neil said:

 

However when you compare with other European countries the picture doesn't look that good. Of the old western European countries only Italy (which took a big hit right at the start of the pandemic) and Belgium (?) do worse than the UK, the rest do better or significantly better. Also it seems a bit of a cop out to make comparisons with those that do something worse than you, it dulls any ambition to do better. Comparisons with those that do better shows that there was potential to do better. I'd rather be led by those with the ambition to do as well as Denmark than ones who say 'you know what, we're not as bad as Romania'.

 

The trouble is are you/we not comparing like with like in these charts. Look at Russia (eastern Europe). They are reporting less infections but have a much larger death rate. I sometimes wonder is everybody are using the same reporting criteria? to me there are far too many irregularities 

 

What you fail to recognise is that the UK are testing far more people per 1m of population than anyone else, 18 mths ago we had a very small testing ability  as moaned about by the opposition. We now have a world leading system including genome sequencing. seemingly the more you look the more you will find.

 

Look at the likes of Germany, Poland Austria all now having serious issues, 

 

Look at serious critical beds, the UK's is seeing a decline.  France is having very high new infections, we know what follows. Sadly it seems covid eventually finds ways of breaching defences, the hope is the booster program will give us some protection.

 

If you keep looking for negatives you will find them. I share a different view, after a slow start we are among the leaders in the field. Every country in hindsight will say they could have done better, just be thankful for all everyone has done to help us

[boxbrownie]

12 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

You dont need to force people to get vaccinated , you just need to make the consequences of not doing  it annoying or costly enough.

The company I worked for for the majority of my career sent employees all over the world, if you had a reason to go to a particular country which had a U.K. Gov disease/vaccination warning on it you HAD to have the relevant jabs or you didn’t go, simple as……somebody else went, and they got to travel, see the world, gain more experience, enjoy better rates of pay for overseas working etc etc.

 

I never saw an issue having them, even though a few of them had some quite nasty after effects for a few days occasionally.

 

I know of nobody who refused the jabs.

[boxbrownie]

Oops…

Edited December 6, 2021 by boxbrownie
Double post….

[Neil]

40 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

The trouble is are you/we not comparing like with like in these charts. .....

 

It's about the best comparison that you'll get. Certainly comparisons within Europe tell us far more than comparisons with the rest of the world and compared to those parts of Europe which have similar levels of wealth, education etc we haven't done as well as we could or should.

[TheQ]

18 minutes ago, boxbrownie said:

The company I worked for for the majority of my career sent employees all over the world, if you had a reason to go to a particular country which had a U.K. Gov disease/vaccination warning on it you HAD to have the relevant jabs or you didn’t go, simple as……somebody else went, and they got to travel, see the world, gain more experience, enjoy better rates of pay for overseas working etc etc.

 

I never saw an issue having them, even though a few of them had some quite nasty after effects for a few days occasionally.

 

I know of nobody who refused the jabs.

Yep I had to have a full set of holes in the arms to go to work on  the Falklands as a civilian, though I only needed topping up as I'd the full set in the military..

[APOLLO]

Italian man tries to dodge Covid vaccine wearing fake arm

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/03/italian-man-tries-to-dodge-covid-vaccine-wearing-fake-arm

 

Brit15

[APOLLO]

Bit more sobering is this report

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/omicrons-spread-across-hotel-hall-in-hong-kong-highlights-transmission-worry

 

Brit15

[Hobby]

10 minutes ago, Neil said:

It's about the best comparison that you'll get.

 

Certainly comparisons within Europe tell us far more than comparisons with the rest of the world

 

Yes, but that doesn't mean you have to accept them without question, it's accepted that the deaths figure, for example, isn't measured the same way in every country so a straight comparison without any caveat is clearly pushing an "agenda". I still have serious concerns about those straight comparisons like that graph and feel that we cannot use them in the way some people are doing, it's regrettable that there was no set method of measuring the statistics set out at the beginning so everyone was following the same rules. Something more to be taken into account in the future, perhaps?

 

I'm not sure at all about that second statement, whilst there are many third world countries where the stats will not be all they are supposed to be I feel that there are plenty of other countries outside Europe which will be compatible with us and other European countries.

 

 

[Hobby]

9 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

Bit more sobering is this report

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/omicrons-spread-across-hotel-hall-in-hong-kong-highlights-transmission-worry

 

I think we need to calm down and hold back regarding Omicron, I see scare stories all over the press but so far the evidence is that it spreads quicker but is milder. It seems like one of those "Keep calm, and wait for the Science" moments!

[adb968008]

14 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

Bit more sobering is this report

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/omicrons-spread-across-hotel-hall-in-hong-kong-highlights-transmission-worry

 

Brit15

if as the article suggests zero contact between the two rooms, then the air conditioning system could be a possibility. 

it would seem odd just opening the door could do it, the waiter / security / anyone else in the hallway including new/ departing quarantine guests would have caught it.

 

via ventilation systems would be my guess, and HKG hotel rooms in my experience have much of it, and would open an airflow route 24/7. We dont know the nature of the rooms themselves.

 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by adb968008

[LNER4479]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Something that LNER4479 says raises an interesting point: the comparison with other causes of death, dementia, heart-disease etc.

 

The big difference between those and Covid is transmissibility. Covid is more like a cold in the sense of transmissibility, and we all know how easy it is to catch one of those at a model railway exhibition.

 

I've said to myself, in compiling my post above, that I wouldn't get embroiled in the endless debate on this thread ... however, I will comment on this as I did mean to include something in the original post above (it was getting a bit late by the time I pressed 'submit reply'!)

 

Covid is indeed a transmissible illness and that is reflected in the 'leading cause of death' table as, aside from Covid itself, 'influenza/pneumonia' is in there (interestingly, currently at a somewhat less rate that the five year average...). The point I was going to make was this:

 

Prior to Covid, did anybody ever go to a model railway exhibition, contract a flu-like virus and subsequently die of the effects?

 

I'm pretty sure that has happened in the past. So what do we do? Cancel all model railway shows into perpetuity? Of course not. We live with the risk. Many people had a 'flu shot to combat the possibility; we now have the Covid vaccine that reduces the risk. It's down to the individual to decide whether they consider that reduces the risk to an acceptable level or not.

 

So far as the other causes - yes, of course they're not transmissible. But we can still do things about them to reduce the risk of them happening to us, ref the current ad. campaign re the link with excessive alcohol consumption and cancer. Drink in moderation - reduce the risk of dying from cancer; get vaccinated - reduced the risk of dying from Covid.

 

My 'take' on it is that, if you're double vaccinated and have no significant underlying health condition (and - again - my sympathies for those for whom that second condition sadly does not apply; no sympathy whatsoever to those who chose to decline the first condition for no good reason) then the risk of attending a model railway exhibition is pretty much the same as it was prior to Covid - typically*, you run the risk of having to take to your bed for a few days afterwards.

(*Yes there will always be the extreme - and tragic - cases. But there again you could equally - tragically - be wiped out in a RTA on your way to the show).

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by LNER4479

[beast66606]

16 minutes ago, boxbrownie said:

The company I worked for for the majority of my career sent employees all over the world, if you had a reason to go to a particular country which had a U.K. Gov disease/vaccination warning on it you HAD to have the relevant jabs or you didn’t go, simple as……somebody else went, and they got to travel, see the world, gain more experience, enjoy better rates of pay for overseas working etc etc.

 

I never saw an issue having them, even though a few of them had some quite nasty after effects for a few days occasionally.

 

I know of nobody who refused the jabs.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-58330796  - nasty side effect ?

 

The other important difference is none of your employees were forced to vaccinate to work in the UK, I also travelled overseas and had vaccines although non of them were mandatory,  but they made sense, who's going to risk hep. or other nasty disease. however I'm sure the employees would have made a lot more noise if they had to be vaccinated just to travel into the office each day

 

[boxbrownie]

11 minutes ago, beast66606 said:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-58330796  - nasty side effect ?

 

The other important difference is none of your employees were forced to vaccinate to work in the UK, I also travelled overseas and had vaccines although non of them were mandatory,  but they made sense, who's going to risk hep. or other nasty disease. however I'm sure the employees would have made a lot more noise if they had to be vaccinated just to travel into the office each day

 

Probably not if it stopped them contracting a disease in the office which could easily end up in the HDW of the local hospital….or worse.

 

I was really thinking of the care worker sector and allied trades and the risk to their patients.

 

Which also makes sense, at least to me.

Edited December 6, 2021 by boxbrownie

[beast66606]

9 minutes ago, boxbrownie said:

Probably not if it stopped them contracting a disease in the office which could easily end up in the HDW of the local hospital….or worse.

 

I was really thinking of the care worker sector and allied trades and the risk to their patients.

 

Which also makes sense, at least to me.

 

You had very old employees then

 

Care workers have already been sacked if not vaccinated - clap, clap, cl - oops

[Nearholmer]

42 minutes ago, LNER4479 said:

Cancel all model railway shows into perpetuity?

Not what I’m saying at all, but perhaps I should have selected another example, because that one was bound to elicit that question.

 

No, all I’m doing is pointing out that the reason people get annoyed with others who don’t follow sensible rules about masking, and/or don’t get vaccinated, is that their choices inflict extra risk on other people. Which is very different from the case of heart disease - I can scoff all the pies I fancy, and the only person it might make ill is me.

 

What level of risk each of us is willing to accept is each of our own business.

 

What level of risk each of us should be able to inflict on everyone else feels very much like a matter for collective, rather than individual, decision-making to me.

 

As to the Covid-risk of attending a model railway exhibition, I think you’re about right: if double/treble jabbed, a fair chance of catching it, but very likely to get away with two or three weeks illness if you do.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by Nearholmer