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Hornby's interim results show increased sales but also increased losses and debt


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On 28/11/2023 at 06:56, Clearwater said:


Yes, minorities have very little say/influence but I think the lack of cash flow and the continued dire figures drive the quoted share price more than thr free float.  The majority shareholder has effectively taken a greater portion of the overall enterprise value through their loan further depressing thr share price (think an equity release mortgage for comparison except the release has funded business cash flow).

 

looking at the accounts , the figures the leapt out at me were 1)  the fall in gross profit.  Sales increased at a lower rate than costs. 2) the large increase in sales and marketing expenses.£1.4m increase of 30%.  3) the acquisition of Warlord for c£1.25m valuing that business at £6m.  Looks to me like management looking for a miracle   4) the fall in capital commitments for tooling in note 6.  Suggests less cash outflow/ sweating of assets in future.  Unwind of higher than average spend for tt120?

 

Let’s see what full year brings but I’m not optimistic.

 

A very helpful post. Thank you, sir.*

 

*Or madam :-)

 

 

Edited by BachelorBoy
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On 27/11/2023 at 18:07, spamcan61 said:

 Would be nice to have the ex Lima 101 (suitably re-motored) in the range.

A remotored version of the ex-Lima 101 was part of the Hornby range between 2006 and 2010 in BR Green, Blue, Blue/Grey and as SPT blue 101692, and will be available again soon in SPTE orange as 101695 - currently showing on the Hornby site as due Winter 23/24. Uses the same motor as other ex-Lima diesels in the range and the 153.

Edited by Cruachan
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Just to put into context of the wider hobby…

 

We have, yet to be released in 47 rtr motorised toolings… locos/units in 00.

 

just to buy one of each a modeller will need in region of £10k... ok they wont buy 1 of each, but they may buy a couple of a couple etc…, but also that price is dcc ready… not sound.

 

But even with say 2000 models off each tooling thats 94k models to be made… or 1807 a week sold by retailers at c£400k * 52 is circa £20mn just in new tooling loco sales.

 

That excludes sub classes, re-runs, wagons and coaches.

 

It also excludes anything we don't know about, of which I can think of a good few rumours too, and some unknowns may jump out and surprise us in the next year… whilst not all will arrive in 2024, the taps are still running, cad designers at work etc..more will follow.

 

heres the list (no doubt ive missed a couple), and vary between “just web page announcement” and a fully completed “almost ready product”…

 

02, 11,25, 26,31,40,41,44,47,50,56,60,69,80,88,89,93,104, 142,175,180,323,755, 4DD, DHP1, Deltic DP1, Clayton cl18, Hunslet Bo-Bo

57xx, 45xx, O1, HR103, WD2-10-0 x2, Black 5, B17, Big Bertha, Bellerphron, Par Twins,Met No1, J27, J52, J69, Manning Wardle, Y7, Steam Railmotor, Leader, LNE Garratt


Put against a resistance to some price levels and a general squeeze on the population, I do wonder the markets size and ability to absorb so much, plus re-runs, plus coaches, plus wagons…

 

Even in the 1990’s and the run up to Limas demise, there wasnt this volume of variety.

Put against 47 toolings in 00, I’m not seeing anything like that volume in European HO for the whole continent.

 

Sitting back on new toolings and squeezing some older ones may be one of Hornbys better decisions in the next few years, and there may be some horse trading of toolings to be had in the background.

 

 

Edited by adb968008
Added another 8… from original 39
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1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

02, 11,25, 26,31,40,41,44,47,50,56,60,69,80,89,93,104, 142,175,180,323,755, 4DD, DHP1, 

57xx, 45xx, O1, HR103, WD2-10-0 x2, Black 5, B17, Big Bertha, Bellerphron, Par Twins,Met No1, J27, Manning Wardle, Y7, Steam Railmotor. 

 

 

There's the 88 missing off there.

 

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

Put against a resistance to some price levels and a general squeeze on the population, I do wonder the markets size and ability to absorb so much, plus re-runs, plus coaches, plus wagons…

 

I agree, there is a LOT of money being spent on tooling that we are aware of.

 

I aren't saying that's not sustainable but it seems there's a situation at the moment I feel where a land grab is going on, and whether some run out of steam (pun intended) in the process we don't know.

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1 hour ago, TomScrut said:

 

There's the 88 missing off there.

 

ah, nice, I forgot Deltic prototype too, there got to be 1 more ive missed, 42 is the meaning of life !).


edit I now make it 47!! Toolings

 

1 hour ago, TomScrut said:

 

 

I agree, there is a LOT of money being spent on tooling that we are aware of.

 

I aren't saying that's not sustainable but it seems there's a situation at the moment I feel where a land grab is going on, and whether some run out of steam (pun intended) in the process we don't know.

 

Edited by adb968008
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2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Just to put into context of the wider hobby…

 

We have, yet to be released in 39 rtr motorised toolings… locos/units in 00.

 

just to buy one of each a modeller will need in region of £8000... ok they wont buy 1 of each, but they may buy a couple of a couple etc…, but also that price is dcc ready… not sound.

 

But even with say 2000 models off each tooling thats 80k models to be made… or 1538 a week sold by retailers at c£300k * 52 is circa £15mn just in new tooling loco sales.

 

That excludes sub classes, re-runs, wagons and coaches.

 

It also excludes anything we don't know about, of which I can think of a good few rumours too, and some unknowns may jump out and surprise us in the next year… whilst not all will arrive in 2024, the taps are still running, cad designers at work etc..more will follow.

 

heres the list (no doubt ive missed a couple), and vary between “just web page announcement” and a fully completed “almost ready product”…

 

02, 11,25, 26,31,40,41,44,47,50,56,60,69,80,89,93,104, 142,175,180,323,755, 4DD, DHP1, 

57xx, 45xx, O1, HR103, WD2-10-0 x2, Black 5, B17, Big Bertha, Bellerphron, Par Twins,Met No1, J27, Manning Wardle, Y7, Steam Railmotor. 


Put against a resistance to some price levels and a general squeeze on the population, I do wonder the markets size and ability to absorb so much, plus re-runs, plus coaches, plus wagons…

 

Even in the 1990’s and the run up to Limas demise, there wasnt this volume of variety.

Put against 39 toolings in 00, I’m not seeing anything like that volume in European HO for the whole continent.

 

Sitting back on new toolings and squeezing some older ones may be one of Hornbys better decisions in the next few years, and there may be some horse trading of toolings to be had in the background.

 

I'm in agreement that the sheer variety at the prices now being charged mean that not all these ventures are likely to be fully successful (although the criteria for success would also, I venture, vary across the different suppliers).
 

I think where Hornby's proposition is unique is that their audience is much larger than the specialist model railway user, but this has also been the core of the problem in that that too many individual products don't seem to be clearly targeted. The Railroad range is an excellent idea in principle and from what I see fills a real gap for 'ordinary' folk looking for something they can buy new but has never in my mind been consistently applied. Some of the models are basic, yes, but good; others verge very much towards the fictional (Class 47s masquerading as Class 57s) - not necessarily the wrong thing to do but in terms of the target buyer possibly quite different. 

 

Similarly, the full fat super detail models are often let down by issues that really matter to that market, and we still have bizarre mismatches between obvious demand profiles and supply - for example enough Mk3 Sliding Door coaches in XC livery to make up two complete sets plus spare vehicles but only one release of power cars that sold out 2 years ago; and both old and new tooling LNER Mk3s, enough for three full rakes, yet only a single set of power cars due at the middle of next year. This sort of thing leads to inventory that can't be shifted. I'm sure in years to come the APT will be quite sought after but for now there are more out there than the market can bear, not good for dealers or Hornby and also undermining what should be a premium product, as fire sales of various vehicles dramatically undercut what some people have already paid and therefore undermine brand value.
 

Not everything will be called right at every time, but some of these instances do seem to reflect on a constant turnover of management staff and therefore lessons not necessarily being learnt.

Edited by andyman7
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The over production of mk3’s is indeed an oddity, and someone somewhere made a decision to do it, so there must have been a reason.

 

The only one I could come up with is an attempt to see off the competitive threat of another HST… if theres gizillions of coaches out there the justification of making a duplicate is reduced, at lower cost than flooding the market with power cars.


Whilst you can logically make more power cars later, I cannot help but think events have over taken them, and maybe demand has passed for HSTs as the “end of” events are fading into memory.

 

What chance Hornby turns up a Mexican HST in January…it feels like a Hornby kind of thing to do.

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On 27/11/2023 at 14:53, Andy Hayter said:

I have to fully agree about the brands  @jjb1970.

 

I have only experience with Arnold and Jouef but I think the my observations would extend to the other brands as well.

 

While Arnold are a long way from being the major brand in Germany (That is Maerklin), they are widely regarded in the smaller scales and until Fleischmann became solely an N gauge brand Arnold were certainly a leader in N.   Germans will tend to buy German products.  Rename Arnold as  Hornby International and regardless that there has been no other change, in the minds of the public it ceases to be German.

 

Jouef was (and in the minds of the public still is) the French model railway company, in much the same way that Hornby is the British equivalent.   In fact Jouef is officially marketed as Hornby Jouef, which works because Hornby used to have its own branding and manufacture in France as Hornby Acho.   There are still folk around that remember that.  Nevertheless I have yet to hear anyone talk about Hornby Jouef.  They just refer to the company as Jouef.  

 

Assuming that you did go ahead and rename the brands under one umbrella brand, what would you do with the old brands.  The brand names have value.  You would then probably want/need to maintain their trade  registration to avoid a competitor from taking the names (names only) over.  But if you are going to protect the names what are you going to do with the brands?  Selling the brand name to a competitor seems like a poor strategy.  

Agreed. Electrotren is THE Spanish HO model railway brand. Yes, there is also Roco, who do the odd locomotive, and some freight wagons, and there are a couple of other smaller manufacturers, but if you want anything Spanish outline in HO, you pretty much have to go to Electrotren. Electrotren was founded and based in Spain until Hornby bought the brand and tooling. Frequenting a couple of Spanish model railway forums myself, I think there would be a few unhappy Spaniards if it was renamed as Hornby International.

Edited by Geep7
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7 minutes ago, Geep7 said:

Agreed. Electrotren is THE Spanish HO model railway brand. Yes, there is also Roco, who do the odd locomotive, and some freight wagons, and there are a couple of other smaller manufacturers, but if you want anything Spanish outline in HO, you pretty much have to go to Electrotren. Electrotren was founded and based in Spain until Hornby bought the brand and tooling. Frequenting a couple of Spanish model railway forums myself, I think there would be a few unhappy Spaniards if it was renamed as Hornby International.

Agree national ties are very important.

 

we are seeing the Americanisation of cadburys and its not all good to see.

 

Keeping the local name is important.

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If you think American Cadbury's is bad try the **** they make in Malaysia. The Dairy Milk and other Cadbury brands sold in SE Asia use a different recipe which is just awful. Even worse than the Australian recipe which is what you get in SE Asia if it isn't  Malaysian.

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3 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Put against 47 toolings in 00, I’m not seeing anything like that volume in European HO for the whole continent.

 

In Germany — the major market — and the other German-speaking countries — most of the viable prototypes have already been done in H0 and multiple times. How you judge the market across all European countries is harder; there are many brands, especially in France, which never get a mention in Continental Modeller — Mistral and R37 to name just two.

 

And of course there are more prototypes in U.K. to start with.

 

There aren't anything like that many forthcoming models in N. And, outside Germany, Britain has one of the widest ranges in N gauge, especially steam era. Aside from (prototypically) reliveried German locos, there is only one "French" steam loco avail@ble in N, the 141R, and that only made available within the last couple of years, a class of over 1000 locos that lasted to the 1970s. There are no RTR "native" Austrian steam locos at all in N, despite the existence of two native manufacturers.

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59 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

If you think American Cadbury's is bad try the **** they make in Malaysia. The Dairy Milk and other Cadbury brands sold in SE Asia use a different recipe which is just awful. Even worse than the Australian recipe which is what you get in SE Asia if it isn't  Malaysian.

Not just cadburys though.. we just lost dark Bounty as its not available in America. And now Nestle just dropped Caramac too !

 

Edited by adb968008
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10 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

If you think American Cadbury's is bad try the **** they make in Malaysia. The Dairy Milk and other Cadbury brands sold in SE Asia use a different recipe which is just awful. Even worse than the Australian recipe which is what you get in SE Asia if it isn't  Malaysian.

I think it's because the cold chain is not so reliable in Malaysia. 

 

Personally I really like the Australian recipe.

 

 

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On 27/11/2023 at 03:16, BachelorBoy said:

 

Interesting! So if the main shareholder is a big lender too, are there any financial shenanigans it could engage in, such as making Hornby deliberately miss debt repayments, so the firm could be wound up and it gets all the assets for almost nothing?

 

 

The only 'financial shenanigans' I can see there - and they are not really shenanigans anyway - are the salr  of brands and their related assets and/or making tax use of. financial losses.  The company is in the position of being able to buy its own shares back should it wish or have the wherewithal to do so and it is also ina position where it can sell off assets without shareholder approval and purely at the decision of its directors.  It thus has the facility - although it would no doubt have to be with the blessing of the major shareholders - to raise cash to reduce debt through sale of brands or other assets (to the extent that it has any).   That sale of assets flexibility is new following this year's AGM; the buy-back of shares isn't new but is merely a renewal of an existing resolution from a past AGM.

 

On 27/11/2023 at 22:56, Clearwater said:


Yes, minorities have very little say/influence but I think the lack of cash flow and the continued dire figures drive the quoted share price more than thr free float.  The majority shareholder has effectively taken a greater portion of the overall enterprise value through their loan further depressing thr share price (think an equity release mortgage for comparison except the release has funded business cash flow).

 

looking at the accounts , the figures the leapt out at me were 1)  the fall in gross profit.  Sales increased at a lower rate than costs. 2) the large increase in sales and marketing expenses.£1.4m increase of 30%.  3) the acquisition of Warlord for c£1.25m valuing that business at £6m.  Looks to me like management looking for a miracle   4) the fall in capital commitments for tooling in note 6.  Suggests less cash outflow/ sweating of assets in future.  Unwind of higher than average spend for tt120?

 

Let’s see what full year brings but I’m not optimistic.

The big gamble is increasing the managerial staff to change to a selling based organisation with also better provision of a marketing function.  Wtach too that comment about brand autonomy - which sets nicely alongside the new ability to easily divest itself of brands as well as being a much better arrangement than the old system.

 

The fall in gross profit is I think more indicarive of increased staffing cost than many of theh other things which the Statement mentions.  Sales 'increase' isn't necessarily what it appears to be at first sight - as I mentioned sometime back - because it appears to take no account of inflation.  But I remain reasonably optimistic  because teh new organisation is clearly having to find its feet and they are now pushing some good seasonal/'grubby Friday' offers which won't hit retailers in the model railway field.

 

The fall in capital spend is a consequence of several things some of which mud st relate to the pace of work in factories as exoenditure on tooling will precede availability of stock to sell.  and as you say there could have been a TT120 peak last year.  I don't think it's necessarily indicative of the future but having said that I do think we might well see a change in the directions in which the company spends money. on tooling but that depends very much on the Brand Managers,

 

The big problem they still have is the dag exerted by the mountain of excess stock although there is a hint that they can see a way out of it - that will be interesti!ng. Overall I think the structural changes have - from those in the company I have spoken to - created a positive feeling and that must help the company succeed although getting the numbers right depends on many other things as well.

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On 27/11/2023 at 01:15, GenericRMWebUsername said:

One other product line I don't know about is Hornby Playtrains. Is it successful? No clue. That could be an additional line if it is going strong. If not, focusing on toys with simple mechanisms but passable detailing might be good. Train sets should also be tied to one of the tiers.

 

For the grandchildren. Brio for the very young has been a big success with some. Plenty of play value with rising bridges, loads, cranes and so on. For older ones still interested, Railroad (horrible name) is good. It’s compatible with track and controllers right up to top grade stuff. I bet that if my grandson with some Railroad graduates to that, he’ll like to keep his original models. Playtrains is compatible with neither. I regard it as an unnecessary step in between.

 

Whilst I don’t like the name, Railroad was a master stroke. I wondered why Hornby went on its spree of buying up failing continental brands. Lima, in particular, was obsolete. I suspect that Hornby had little idea of what to do with the Lima toolings when they were acquired. When used to produce a cheap range, it has been a success. Trying to produce new tools in the same range did not go well. In short, for Railroad, Hornby is stuck with what it already has.

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1 hour ago, No Decorum said:

……. I wondered why Hornby went on its spree of buying up failing continental brands. Lima, in particular, was obsolete…..


Are you only thinking of Lima’s British outline product line?

That was only one arm of Lima overall catalogue.

Lima produced much better models for their larger Continental markets and already owned most of what became Hornby International’s brands. These brands were acquired through Hornby’s purchase of the Lima group.

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3 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:


Are you only thinking of Lima’s British outline product line?

That was only one arm of Lima overall catalogue.

Lima produced much better models for their larger Continental markets and already owned most of what became Hornby International’s brands. These brands were acquired through Hornby’s purchase of the Lima group.

Somehow  ViTrains seemed to have slipped through the net.

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6 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

That’s because they are still a going concern, just for European models not uk 

Yes but somehow their brand new 37/47 missed their grasp back in 2005… it would seem odd to buy all the old toolings and leave the new.

Similarly since vi stopped making the 37/47 in 2014? it may have been opportunistic to have picked it up, sent it to China and start selling them fully assembled, the future now may have been different.

 

 

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On 30/11/2023 at 20:17, adb968008 said:

Yes but somehow their brand new 37/47 missed their grasp back in 2005… it would seem odd to buy all the old toolings and leave the new........

 

Hornby acquired ownership of all the tooling when it purchased the bankrupt Lima group.....and, IIRC most of it was sent off to China.

 

ViTrains (Vi as in Vicenza, hence pronounced, Vitt-rains) was formed by former Lima managers and staff, after that company's collapse..

It's a matter of conjecture how, so quickly after setting up the new business, they were able to roll out a number of new models, two of which were the British outline Class 37 and a bit later, the Class 47.

The unproved speculation was a that a number of new projects in the Lima pipeline, had somehow disappeared without trace by the time of the Hornby takeover.

Conspiracy theory or unfounded rumour ?

 

Whatever, they are still going strong ................(incidentally, ViTrains is also the Italian distributor for Peco and ESU)

 

https://www.vitrains.it

 

 

 

 

 

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Edited by Ron Ron Ron
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7 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

  The company is in the position of being able to buy its own shares back should it wish or have the wherewithal to do so and it is also ina position where it can sell off assets without shareholder approval and purely at the decision of its directors.  

 

This is a common situation where a company rewards its staff though bonuses based on shares rather than cash.  The company has to have the ability to top up its shareholding in order to make these payments - hence the authorisation to buy back shares.

 

Receiving the bonus as shares has an interesting psychological incentive.  Having done a good job and received a block of shares, the employee is then encouraged to do a good job ongoing - firstly the get another bonus next year and secondly to help keep the company healthy and keep or improve the share price which directly impacts the value of that share block when it is surrendered.  

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2 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

This is a common situation where a company rewards its staff though bonuses based on shares rather than cash.  The company has to have the ability to top up its shareholding in order to make these payments - hence the authorisation to buy back shares.

 

Receiving the bonus as shares has an interesting psychological incentive.  Having done a good job and received a block of shares, the employee is then encouraged to do a good job ongoing - firstly the get another bonus next year and secondly to help keep the company healthy and keep or improve the share price which directly impacts the value of that share block when it is surrendered.  

 

Some financial advisors say if you are an ordinary worker, you should sell the shares once you receive them, and put the money into your pension, or other investments.

 

Imagine if your employer goes bust: not only do you lose your job, but your shares become worthless.

 

 

 

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When I worked for E.ON they had a very good staff share save scheme, it wasn't a bonus as such but you could pay into an account on extremely good terms and the money was used to buy shares with a generous contribution from the company. I never got involved and was always derided, but my view based on what I was seeing was that the company was heading towards a cliff edge at a rapid rate and the last place I'd put my money was into their shares. Within a couple of years shares were worth something like a third of the value when I joined (I do hope the crash wasn't all my fault) and the company was in an asset fire sale to try and stay afloat. The thing was it was entirely predictable to anyone with eyes. I'm not a financial genius (quite the opposite) or much clever on anything but the way they were managing themselves was spectacularly inept. I was a strategic development engineer and involved with new plant origination, they also dragged me into due diligence work as they went on an acquisition spree, which told me everything about what was coming down the line. On the upside, in a funny old way I found it reassuring to know that it isn't just British companies and organizations that can be so hopelessly incompetent.

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10 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

Receiving the bonus as shares has an interesting psychological incentive.  Having done a good job and received a block of shares, the employee is then encouraged to do a good job ongoing - firstly the get another bonus next year and secondly to help keep the company healthy and keep or improve the share price which directly impacts the value of that share block when it is surrendered.  

 

7 hours ago, BachelorBoy said:

Imagine if your employer goes bust: not only do you lose your job, but your shares become worthless.

 

6 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

When I worked for E.ON they had a very good staff share save scheme, it wasn't a bonus as such but you could pay into an account on extremely good terms and the money was used to buy shares with a generous contribution from the company. 

 

I agree with all three comments. I worked for Lloyds for 25 years where I took part in both a profit sharing scheme and a share savings scheme. By getting both of these incentives paid in shares gave a tax advantage unless you sold the shares within a fixed period after receiving them (might have been five years?) when income tax was deducted. After I was made redundant back in 1997, my payoff kept us going until I got another job and so there was no need to cash in the shares, Financial advice is always to look to the long term and historically shares had always gone up in value over a five year period. So far so good - then the financial crash and Lloyds was almost bankrupt, saved by a massive government bailout but then came the disastrous merger with Halifax & Bank of Scotland. Year later the shares have still to recover even though the government shares have all been sold off (unlike NatWest).

 

Those shares were to be eventually sold for a retirement bungalow and a round the world cruise - when I did retire we extended the mortgage to get the bungalow (even after downsizing from 4 bed detached) and the shares won't even pay for a weekend in Skegness - perhaps after I'm gone the kids might benefit from an increase in the share value . . . . . . . 

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I’m a bit of a laggard but my membership just came up for renewal.

 

until today, I got 10% rewards on spend, and as a collectors club member 10% off rrp.

Retailers are offering typically 10% off.

So for the last year, its made sense to order from Hornby, especially as they honour pre-order prices as it measures in years for delivery.

 

Ive noticed today the 10% has gone, and replaced with an extra 5% in rewards.

 

That £30 membership requires £600 in spend to recover the membership fee in 5% rewards, before you save anything.

But actually £1200 you need to spend, why because the 10% discount has gone anything you spend using rewards is at full RRP… so that 15% is actually only worth 7.5%.

 

Last year I placed a ton of pre-orders and very little arrived.

What has arrived for me has been excessively dumped by retailers, and ive basically wasted some cash by going with Hornbys website.


so yet again i’m letting the club membership lapse. (I wont miss the free 0-4-0 and it looks like its gone anyway).

 

I think this is the third time ive witnessed this cycle of incentivising the club with a discount, only to take it away again, whilst simultaneously watching the trade starve then gorge themselves on supply.

 

its almost like El Nino and becoming predictable… i’ll save myself £30 this year, and to boot just canceled nearly £1k in Hornby website preorders as I feel quite confident someone else will end up selling them for less than the price ai have now, next year.

 

if Hornby wants to get its financials right, it needs to understand its customers… if it drags customers from retail to its own website, it needs to keep them. If they let the incentives lapse, the tide will go back out.

 

if its supplying its retailers but taking their customers, retail will need to discount. Similarly if it starves the retailer but pushes away its own customers, its Hornby that will end up discounting.
 

What its missing to gain loyalty is consistency.. as long as Hornby keeps tweaking its proposition, its customer  will keep reevaluating. My broadband contract expired years ago, but they never contact me and as a result i keep forgetting to look for better deals… they are making a killing because of consistency… dont nudge the customer in the comfy chair because they may look for a better chair.


Lets see if the website maintains YOY growth, when it becomes less attractive… Blaming shifting  retail and trying to force them not to discount isnt the answer, it lies within their own walls.

 

i’m going to spend my hobby rewards on my last day whilst they still get that 10% benefit off rrp now, as tomorrow their value depreciates, I might even get a free christmas tree.

 

 

 

 

Edited by adb968008
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