Solar storm railway operation disruption

[melmerby]

 

21 hours ago, APOLLO said:

Back to reality.

 

The Radio telescope at Jodrell Bank alongside the Manchester to Crewe railway was electronically affected when the railway was electrified. It was soon sorted though.

They updated the OS in the BBC Micro?🙂

Edited December 13, 2023 by melmerby

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

3 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

...the dire risk of a blockade of the Malacca Strait...

What does that do? The tides won't work anymore? We so need to know what to worry about.

[jjb1970]

13 minutes ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

What does that do? The tides won't work anymore? We so need to know what to worry about.

 

Apparently at any moment China could shut off the straits and stop all maritime trade between East Asia and the world (apart from all the trade that doesn't go through the Malacca Strait), and if China doesn't do it an angry volcano or tsunami could pounce. The BBC etc assure me that this would destroy trade as everything has to go through a 3cm wide passage, in seeming ignorance of alternatives like the Lombok Strait and Sunda Strait and that if China ever invades Malaysia, Indonesia and/or Singapore then it won't be shipping services the world is worried about.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

27 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

...angry volcano or tsunami...

...triggered by either the volcanic activity or an earthquake or the remains of an extinct volcano falling into the ocean, or even all three having a wild party together.

 

Given our inability to look inside our planet for predictive purposes, and the scale of past events in the geological record, this strikes me as one we shouldn't worry about, just leave it to the survivors to deal with. I may not recall this completely accurately, but I was brought up with a start as a schoolboy by a sentence in a geology text relating to the most recent retreat of glaciation as we entered the present interstadial: 'A large tsunami event of which the strand line remains clearly visible 2,000 feet above present sea level.'

[The Stationmaster]

18 hours ago, Jeremy Cumberland said:

The blackout in Canada suggests the probability is high enough to factor into contingency planning. It is always good to be aware of potential hazards even if you have no effective way of guarding against their happening or mitigating their effects. Solar storms always come with several hours' warning, even if predictions of their severity are often inaccurate, as anyone with an aurora alert set up can probably testify. If a solar storm hits, and odd things start happening with railway signalling, then if someone has previously modelled likely or worst case effects,  Railway operators might have some idea of the best actions to take.

The article I read - written no doubt by a hack journo who might hot have understood what he was writing - referred specifically to track circuits and to wrong and right side failures of signals.  The fact that it got that far was may be indicative that the study had indeed looked at interference  affecting track circuits.

 

Sio I come back to my earlier point that the sun's electro-magnetic impact would have to exceed that of the various results found when testring various traction units.  If track circuits can resist something happening within a few feet of them, across a wide spectrum of frequencoes and signal intensity including various 'dirty' emissions what will the sun do that a Class 90 - for example - can't do?   So a simple question - where is the technical information about the emissions likely to come from the sun and how does they compare with existing everyday emissions on the rail network?

[lapford34102]

3 hours ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

A large tsunami event of which the strand line remains clearly visible 2,000 feet above present sea level.'

Think it was a reference to this one

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_Lituya_Bay_earthquake_and_megatsunami

 

Stu

[KingEdwardII]

14 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

where is the technical information about the emissions likely to come from the sun

The "emissions" that matter in a solar storm are electromagnetic ones and the focus of concern is on induced currents in conductors - long ones in particular. This is why the impact on electric transmission systems is significant - it can cause circuits to trip and also damage equipment like transformers:

 

https://earthsky.org/sun/solar-storms-affect-on-power-grid-internet/

 

Similar damage could occur to railway equipment, which may not have the same level of protection as components of the electric grid - which has to deal with frequent natural events like lightning strikes. However, the simple loss of electrical power to railway systems is probably the first thing a solar storm would do to the railways.

 

Yours, Mike.

[Nearholmer]

16 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

So a simple question - where is the technical information about the emissions likely to come from the sun and how does they compare with existing everyday emissions on the rail network?

The magnetic fields from solar create large longitudinal current flows in conductors (including the ground), thereby causing large potential gradients, in turn causing breakdown of insulation (an IBJ would, I think, be particularly vulnerable). It’s a somewhat different concern from traction package interference, which tends to be about potentials and currents that are relatively small in this context, but of particular frequencies.

 

What I haven’t properly got my head around yet is how it could cause wrong-side failures of track circuits, it may be about the orientation of the track with respect to the field I think, and it may be that only certain types of TC are vulnerable to it. But, it’s quite easy to understand how it can cause lots and lots of right-side failures and damage, by presenting energy levels that the existing protective devices on power and coms circuits, which are designed to cope with things like lightning strike and switching transients, can’t deal with safely.

 

Heres the Lancaster Uni press release https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/news/rail-industry-urged-to-consider-safety-risks-of-space-weather

 

My suspicion from the way it is phrased is that the TCs that are vulnerable are ‘traditional’ DC ones, which would make sense, but there must be someone on this forum who knows exactly which types are installed in the two lines mentioned.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Nearholmer

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

17 hours ago, lapford34102 said:

Think it was a reference to this one

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_Lituya_Bay_earthquake_and_megatsunami

Went on a search yesterday evening. What I was referring to was a far more ancient event, now termed the 'Storegga slide' about 8,200 years ago. Basically a very large chunk of what is now Norway moved. The scale of this event was impressive! It's had a lot more work since I first read about it at school, as a consequence of more recent oil and gas prospecting and extraction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storegga_Slide

 

[adb968008]

Somethings you just cannot mitigate against.

Thats why lawyers and insurers rely on a religious clause.. “acts of god”.

 

if a solar flare happens, do what the wireless operators of 1859 did… unplug everything, and carry on, using the free electric provided…

your model locomotives should start running themselves..

 

just leave your meter on, it should be going in reverse.

 

😀
 

 

To me this is the millenium bug, in miniature.

Edited December 14, 2023 by adb968008

[Reorte]

3 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Somethings you just cannot mitigate against.

Thats why lawyers and insurers rely on a religious clause.. “acts of god”.

There are also things that you could mitigate against but in reality it just makes more sense to deal with the consequences when they happen.

[The Stationmaster]

7 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

The magnetic fields from solar create large longitudinal current flows in conductors (including the ground), thereby causing large potential gradients, in turn causing breakdown of insulation (an IBJ would, I think, be particularly vulnerable). It’s a somewhat different concern from traction package interference, which tends to be about potentials and currents that are relatively small in this context, but of particular frequencies.

 

What I haven’t properly got my head around yet is how it could cause wrong-side failures of track circuits, it may be about the orientation of the track with respect to the field I think, and it may be that only certain types of TC are vulnerable to it. But, it’s quite easy to understand how it can cause lots and lots of right-side failures and damage, by presenting energy levels that the existing protective devices on power and coms circuits, which are designed to cope with things like lightning strike and switching transients, can’t deal with safely.

 

Heres the Lancaster Uni press release https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/news/rail-industry-urged-to-consider-safety-risks-of-space-weather

 

My suspicion from the way it is phrased is that the TCs that are vulnerable are ‘traditional’ DC ones, which would make sense, but there must be someone on this forum who knows exactly which types are installed in the two lines mentioned.

 

 

 

 

Apart from throgh fitting work much of that part of teh WCML is cwr with 'joint;ess track circuits'  - probably of a cuuple although as I mentioned previously one type (which I think might be T121?) were being removed back in he '90s because they could be affected by electromagnetic emissions from traction.   Unless there has been any conversion to axle counters fitting work is most likely going to be track circuited still and logocally with DC track circuits to avoid traction current interference.

 

Any loss of electrical power will inevitably be safe side for two reasons, Apart from dieseels train will come to a stand and as far as trains are concerned a blacked out signal means exactly the same as one showing a red aspect.  So delays and maybe a bit of chaos until power is reatored but nothing dangerous.  The danger comes with axle couners when power is lost because all then depends on a human being establishing where trains are plus as I understand it a counter might give a false clear if it has neither a 'count in' nor a 'count out' 'record' in its circuitry following a loss of power.  Maybe that is where the wrong side failure idea came in if they were staring from a power failure situation?

[Mallard60022]

Am I correct in thinking that this sort of Solar Activity will disrupt the actual communication devices rather than take out Power? It could damage Satellite stuff?

I haven't got a clue really, but isn't the major Terrorist, or galloping Maniac (no names), threat to the World the obliteration of Comm's and that Cloud set up? Isn't that what was expected of Putin and then off he went with ancient metalwork and some nasty Drones? 

The result of said disruption would probably result in things shutting down, but that's beyond me.

I'd be glad to see some thoughts on this as I know nothing, despite using DCC (maybe that's why I know nothing?).

Phil

 

[Nearholmer]

12 minutes ago, Mallard60022 said:

will disrupt the actual communication devices rather than take out Power?

It can do either or both.  Power lines are vulnerable because of their length and because they are not shielded.

[david.hill64]

TI21 track circuits are supposedly traction immune, hence the name. They are still being installed today.

 

The study talks about track circuits on AC electrified lines, which might mean they are simple DC type.

 

Having written and/or approved signalling system safety cases, including for systems using TI21 track circuits, I find it very difficult to believe that wrong side failures would be more common than right side failures. 

 

I would also point out that the study predicts wrong side failures every 10-20 years. Given the length of time that DC and TI21 track circuits have been in use, you might have expected there to have been a few wrong side failures by now.

 

It reminds me of the early days of safety cases, when we had an argument that the winter sun shining through a fence would cause shadows on the conductor rail resulting in partial melting of the ice on the conductor rail which would induce cyclic arcing of the collector shoes which would be at a frequency that would cause the AC track circuits to malfunction.

 

I have a feeling that if the solar storm were large enough to cause this sort of issue, we might all have been fried anyway.

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

Apart from throgh fitting work much of that part of teh WCML is cwr with 'joint;ess track circuits'  - probably of a cuuple although as I mentioned previously one type (which I think might be T121?) were being removed back in he '90s because they could be affected by electromagnetic emissions from traction.   

You are getting your track circuits confused!

 

TI21s are very much still in use through the network (including where the 373s, class 92s, NSE networkers were employed) although they have now been ‘digitised’ (rebranded as EBI200 and EBI400) where the receivers now set themselves up rather than techs having to adjust the gain setting manually plus having the ability to transmit all the perimeters to data loggers (and there hence to remote condition monitoring techs who can view the data in real time).

 

The track circuits which had to be removed en mass from routes used by the 373s etc are ‘Reed’ type track circuits - and their existence on the Brighton main line was the reason the 92s were banned from using the route via Redhill even though RfD paid for the electrification of the Redhill to Tonbridge section.
 

 

Although Reed tracks intended to be able to be used without IBJs such a configuration was problematic and never employed on the ex Southern region where all Reed track circuits came with IBJs. In recent years though Network Ra8l has run programmes to get rid of them entirely (including on the BML) with the replacement being the EBI (or TI21 in old money) type.

[KeithMacdonald]

Power outages occur quite frequently all over the country, but are usually local muppetry.

e.g.

Quote

The National Grid has today (Thursday) confirmed that the power loss stemmed from an incident at the substation between Truro and Shortlanesend. A spokesperson said: “Following maintenance work at a substation near Truro yesterday evening and after the network was restored to normal working, an incident occurred where a piece of plant failed, causing the bright flash that people reported.

 

https://www.falmouthpacket.co.uk/news/23989658.power-outage-cornwall-caused-substation-incident/

[Nearholmer]

32 minutes ago, david.hill64 said:

The study talks about track circuits on AC electrified lines, which might mean they are simple DC type.

That was what I suspected.

[adb968008]

I caught a 92 tripping a signal at Finsbury Park once…

 

9mins in, look where the 92 is in relation to the trackside cabinets

 

 

it nearly caused a northbound GC 180 to SPAD circa a minute later as it rapidly deaccelerated into FPs platform.

Edited December 15, 2023 by adb968008

[jjb1970]

It reminds me of risk assessments where absolutely everything is identified as a potential fatality and dire threat to the world. Especially qualitative assessments, someone in a mess room stumbles, cracks their head and dies, and as they fall they grab hold of someone else and they die from a head injury too. In a sense it's correct, just about anything we do in life can end up in death but it doesn't really help risk management and it's unhealthy to go from a sensible awareness of risk to being scared of shadows.

[MarkC]

36 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

It reminds me of risk assessments where absolutely everything is identified as a potential fatality and dire threat to the world. Especially qualitative assessments, someone in a mess room stumbles, cracks their head and dies, and as they fall they grab hold of someone else and they die from a head injury too. In a sense it's correct, just about anything we do in life can end up in death but it doesn't really help risk management and it's unhealthy to go from a sensible awareness of risk to being scared of shadows.

Oh, how true. Myself & writing of risk assessments are, at best, uneasy bedfellows these days. It's all gone too far...

[Nearholmer]

If you read what the uni guys actually said, they talk about it in very sober terms; don’t fall into the trap of having your buttons pressed by newspaper headline writers, or get trapped into a Mexican Wave of reaction to something you haven’t read (unless, of course, you have been able to access and read the base work).

 

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Nearholmer

[BachelorBoy]

33 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 don’t fall into the trap of having your buttons pressed by newspaper headline writers, 

 

 

Newspaper headline writers are quite restrained. It's people who claim they tell the truth that the MSM covers up who are the real problem. 

[St. Simon]

7 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I caught a 92 tripping a signal at Finsbury Park once…

 

9mins in, look where the 92 is in relation to the trackside cabinets

 

 

it nearly caused a northbound GC 180 to SPAD circa a minute later as it rapidly deaccelerated into FPs platform.

 

Except, the Loc cases that that loco passes aren't associated with any of the equipment that controls that signal, so the reversion is unlikely due to the 92.

 

Simon

[adb968008]

22 minutes ago, St. Simon said:

 

Except, the Loc cases that that loco passes aren't associated with any of the equipment that controls that signal, so the reversion is unlikely due to the 92.

 

Simon

As your a signaller, I would be interested to know your thoughts on why it happened.

 

As I said another service was bearing down on that signal and deaccereleratd considerably. Nothing crossed the DF to warrant it, and it was cleared after… as you can hear on the video, I wasnt the only one who saw it and thought it odd.

 

I have seen similar at Woking with a 442 passing, when waiting for 61306 in 2019. The driver of the 450 just closed his doors to go, as the 442 over took it, the 450’s light went red. The driver somewhat dismissed it as routine, it too then cleared to green and off he went, now an extra minute or so down.

 

is this just a regular occurrence ?
 

Edited December 15, 2023 by adb968008