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Solar storm railway operation disruption


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It was first reported by the Daily Star - nuff said.

Obviously given up on the 8' snow drifts & -20C blast from the arctic.😄

 

It will have a similar effect on all the world's railways, all the mobile phones, the radio & TV etc. etc.

 

Best call in Dr Who.

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13 minutes ago, melmerby said:

Can they zap Nuclear power stations as well?😁

No thats reserved for class 46’s, fortunately theres only 3 left, and the last one that tried came off badly.

 

Old_Dalby_nuclear_flask_test-by-Brian-Ro


G4S bless em, saving us all ?

Edited by adb968008
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It’s another article where they’re confusing impact and probability. Space weather is of huge concern to government as it would damage satellites on which so much depends. It could in a worst case scenario render ships unable to navigate apart from by sextant (a number of pre-GPS systems have been deactivated) which would leave them either wandering about taking longer routes or running aground. This would also impact any satellite based communications (which I believe includes some forms of signalling).
 

Fortunately there are ways of detecting space weather in advance (as anyone who watched the surprisingly-not-completely-terrible series one of COBRA on Sky One). Like Y2K, the UK’s system has never been properly tested, though other countries have had light encounters. 
 

In short, it’s not rubbish, but something else, we just don’t know what…

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32 minutes ago, ovbulleid said:

In short, it’s not rubbish, but something else, we just don’t know what…

Yes and no. The impact of solar storms is a known problem, and one that's caused some major issues in the past - the article mentions the damage caused in Canada once. But because it's known and there are ways to mitigate against it, which I believe are generally used already, the risk would seem to be pretty small and thus not really worth worrying about (which isn't the same as saying those mitigations aren't useful - they're why the risk is small).

 

All in all it looks like another case of getting too worried by "but what if...?" and "but it could happen!" (something which needs to be discouraged due to the boy who cried wolf effect it can have when genuinely serious issues roll around).

Edited by Reorte
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16 hours ago, melmerby said:

Can they zap Nuclear power stations as well?😁

92s might - or rather maybe could have until they were sorted  as theirr electro=magnetic emissions spectrum was described by one engineer as being on a par with the explosion of a small nuclear weapon.  But 90s are even worse.  

 

If the WCML can withstand 92s - which it did when teh tesrting was carried out - and various lines in the south east could withstand 373s,  and 92s a bit of interference from the sun is hardly going to cause a problem.  However one sort of jointless track circuit (T121??) was more prone to electro-magnetic interference than any other circuit and they were all removed on any Eurostar and Class 92 route -0m as a start in getting rid of them from the whole network.

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Back to reality.

 

The Radio telescope at Jodrell Bank alongside the Manchester to Crewe railway was electronically affected when the railway was electrified. It was soon sorted though.

 

 

 

Brit15

 

Edited by AY Mod
Copyright image removed
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1 hour ago, APOLLO said:

Back to reality.

 

The Radio telescope at Jodrell Bank alongside the Manchester to Crewe railway was electronically affected when the railway was electrified. It was soon sorted though.

 

 

Brit15

 

They've stopped running trains through Lord's Bridge station ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cmglee_Cambridge_MRAO_One_Mile_Half_Mile_4C.jpg.

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4 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

a bit of interference from the sun is hardly going to cause a problem.


Perfectly credible that it could cause very severe problems.

 

The question is how often conditions severe enough to do so might arise, or put another way the probability that it will occur in a given timespan.

 

I can’t find anywhere what the estimated frequency of event is, but NR put Martin Frobisher forward to comment on it, he’s a chap whose judgement I trust, and he effectively batted it away, saying that there are far more important risks to focus on, not least those arising due to climate change. 
 

High consequence, very low probability event.

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The blackout in Canada suggests the probability is high enough to factor into contingency planning. It is always good to be aware of potential hazards even if you have no effective way of guarding against their happening or mitigating their effects. Solar storms always come with several hours' warning, even if predictions of their severity are often inaccurate, as anyone with an aurora alert set up can probably testify. If a solar storm hits, and odd things start happening with railway signalling, then if someone has previously modelled likely or worst case effects, railway operators might have some idea of the best actions to take.

Edited by Jeremy Cumberland
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A really strong solar storm could cause major problems, especially for the electricity transmission system. It has happened once in recent times in Canada in 1989, as other folk have already mentioned, causing an outage of the electric transmission system there.

 

Lookup the "Carrington Event", which is the most intense solar storm in recorded history, which took place 1-2 Sept 1859. Since electric transmission systems had yet to be invented at the time, the one notable impact was on telegraph systems, with their long lines stretching across countries.

 

There have been "Carrington scale" solar flares observed in recent times, but these have missed hitting the Earth - so there is a reasonable probability that another solar storm of Carrington scale will occur again. But now, we are much more vulnerable due to our extensive electricity transmission systems and our dependence on them.

 

Yours, Mike.

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It strikes me as a typical example of a known issue providing fodder for some fear porn. I don't dispute the possibility, or that resilience to interference is an important matter but I could names loads of similar risks which nobody outside appropriate technical specialists worries about (nor should they). It strikes me as the equivalent of stories about the dire risk of a blockade of the Malacca Strait when the media need a bit of fear porn.

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Given that trains can’t seem to operate in heavy rain now , I think there are a few things that need to be looked at before solar storms 

 

Remember the days when railways were the reliable form of transport , forcing their way through snow , wind , rain when motor vehicles couldn’t make it……..not any more 

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