trisonic Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 I wouldn't be happy to see Hornby get out of the "Hobby" market. If they do the others would surely look at following the same idea. The last time I saw demographics for Railway Modellers (and forgive me because I cannot find the source) it showed a "hump" in the 40 years plus age group. An aging market is not the future, unfortunately. What is really good about the UK market is the sheer volume of small entrepreneurs prepared to fill in the gaps. Alas, they do call for a wee bit more skill than simply opening a box, however. It would be interesting if someone did a comparison study between what is happening on the railways in the real world (i.e. in the UK a decided lack of locomotive selection plus bland passenger services vs interest in model railways - I know what came first in my case as a kid). Anyway, I'm old enough to have seen the swings on interest amongst the UK manufacturers and we seem to have just peaked on a high point. We'll see. Best, Pete. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Max Stafford Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Well, once I've got my B1 and Gresley subs, they can go and do cartwheels with a Roman candle up their bums while whistling 'There's No Business like Show Business'... Dave. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCAR6015 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Hornbys future is in cheap toys. Perhaps the 2012 list price for the VEP will come in at something less than 10 quid. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Natalie Graham Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 The last time I saw demographics for Railway Modellers (and forgive me because I cannot find the source) it showed a "hump" in the 40 years plus age group. An aging market is not the future, unfortunately. That depends on whether new people in the 40+ age group are taking up/returning to the hobby. I would guess that the market for mobility scooters or buss pass holders is predominantly among an older age group but it doesn't mean that is declining market. We are told that people are living longer and the general demograpic trend is that there will be a larger proportion of older people in society. In light of that, there could be a view that the older people's hobby market will be more of a growth sector than children's toys. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium spamcan61 Posted September 19, 2011 RMweb Premium Share Posted September 19, 2011 It would be interesting if someone did a comparison study between what is happening on the railways in the real world (i.e. in the UK a decided lack of locomotive selection plus bland passenger services vs interest in model railways - I know what came first in my case as a kid). Anyway, I'm old enough to have seen the swings on interest amongst the UK manufacturers and we seem to have just peaked on a high point. We'll see. Best, Pete. My gut feel is that any move away from the superb level of detail seen on the last few years' releases would have more to do with the sheer cost and difficulty factor of getting them assembled properly in the Far East* than declining demand; after all we've seen increasing investment in the UK market from Bachmann, Heljan and Dapol. Maybe Hornby see the Railroad 'Tornado' as the way forward for the 'adult collector' market. * The VEP quality issues being a case in point. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold RedgateModels Posted September 19, 2011 RMweb Gold Share Posted September 19, 2011 they do call for a wee bit more skill than simply opening a box, however. Suits me fine Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trains4U Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 The biggest issue I have with this article is the way it has been written. If I were to paraphrase and summarize the article (As written) Frank Martin might just as well have been quoted as saying: "Meh... The plebs can do what they want, I'm retiring to play with my Yacht anyway" That was the immediate message that was conveyed to me by the article, and not a good one to be giving to customers and especially shareholders. (Many of whom are railway enthusasts) If I were Frank, and had read the comments on here, I'd be putting the Hornby PR machine into overdrive right about now... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stuartp Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 It seems ludicrous that while there are forces people being killed and injured in Afghanistan, that this commercial range is announced. It would be less tacky if the announcement mentioned something to the effect that some of the profits received would go to helping those injured or the families of those who have died, but alas, this is not the case... dilbert In fairness Airfix selling model soldiers is hardly new ground for them, and they're only following the MoD's lead anyway: http://www.hmarmedforces.com.htm I see that although the MoD takes a cut of the profits from its range of not-quite-Action-Men it goes back into the PR budget, not anywhere useful. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mow Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Hornby have gone on an acquisition spree, yet haven't addressed their supply chain problems from the factory to the UK. Consider the uncertain delivery times for The Castles for example - how many times have they been promised and delayed. Martin should be focussed on sorting out weaknesses in production, after all he shifted manufacturing from the UK to China. One thing I was wondering is this are the sales in Continental Europe for ranges owned by Hornby also suffering the same difficulties? It is not a good idea for a CEO to mock, or disparage customers, it may take 20 years to build a reputation but five minutes to ruin it. Frank Martin has forgotten that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
iak Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 I seem to recall Fords buying up companies a few years back - then look what happened to them. And that was just more motor companies! This whole wee article is going to cause a lot of bother, one way or the other.... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
brossard Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 I get the impression that production is likely to move again, India being a possibility. The bubble has burst in the cheap chinese labour market. Hopefully it'll come about full circle and production will return to the UK. There has been some talk in the press recently about wage cuts being the path to economic recovery. Apparently Germany has done this with some success. So it may happen. John Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
brossard Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 What about the future of Model Railways? I know this has been discussed (to death) but it is relevant to Hornby's strategy for the future. If they think that ours is the last generation to do model railways in earnest (as opposed to toy trains) they must look to other market growth areas in order to survive. John Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenton Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Why am I not surprised - I have always viewed Hornby at that end of the market and willing to sell the soul of Hornby to the cheaper high throughput end of the market. It always seems to be targeting those new to modelling rather than the time served (possibly more fussy fastidious end of the market.) That is not necessarily a bad thing for the hobby - everyone [probably] started there and were thankful for the fast start provided. The article itself is simple journalism (ignoring the general anti-Telegraph bias) I still think the hobby gets what it deserves. I just can't get upset about that though - water off a duck's back and all that. The message remains the same and I don't see the CEO / Hornby rushing to claim misrepresentation. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
34theletterbetweenB&D Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 This article was not written for the model railway audience. It was written for business investors, to put across 'we have a strategy for recovering the profitability position' and as such the character of hard nosed money grubber is the one that inspires confidence. I promise you that hard nosed money grubbers are fully aware of the ultimate value of brand names that their businesses own, and he and his successors will do what is necessary to maintain all the sustainable brand names into the future. There's been an 'interesting' disconnect on show for at least a couple of years now between the views represented by Mr Martin in several press write ups, and what Hornby actually produce in model railway. My guess is that has more to do with business difficulties than a permanent change of direction as far as model railway product is concerned. Judge by the output. If Hornby completely cease to introduce the better grade models that we like, then yes, they will be moving away from the modeller interest end of our sector. But no concrete sign of that so far, the stream of better model introductions is still flowing. Don't base it on a single release either, look at the trends within the range. One definite trend I can see is that 'units' are not getting the 'full on' high specification. (Eurostar, class 395, 4-VEP) and as a result I don't expect the Belle to be a higher spec model. Steam era items, they are still pulling the stops out on main range introductions; from the Britannia onwards, locos, coaches and wagons all fine. The L1 I have just purchased we would have called museum quality not so long ago. Even the Railroad introductions outpace the pre 1999 range. Doesn't suggest to me that they are planning an exit from the better end of model railway product just yet. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium spamcan61 Posted September 19, 2011 RMweb Premium Share Posted September 19, 2011 This article was not written for the model railway audience. It was written for business investors, to put across 'we have a strategy for recovering the profitability position' and as such the character of hard nosed money grubber is the one that inspires confidence. I promise you that hard nosed money grubbers are fully aware of the ultimate value of brand names that their businesses own, and he and his successors will do what is necessary to maintain all the sustainable brand names into the future. Fair enough, but those hard nosed business types will probably notice that the supply situation doesn't seem to be getting any better, and that moving into fickle, high volume low margin markets is seldom the road to success for a company with a track record of (relatively) low volume, high quality products. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium spamcan61 Posted September 19, 2011 RMweb Premium Share Posted September 19, 2011 Why am I not surprised - I have always viewed Hornby at that end of the market and willing to sell the soul of Hornby to the cheaper high throughput end of the market. It always seems to be targeting those new to modelling rather than the time served (possibly more fussy fastidious end of the market.) That is not necessarily a bad thing for the hobby - everyone [probably] started there and were thankful for the fast start provided. Personally I wouldn't put the vast majority of new toolings into that category: T9, 28xx, L1, Schools, N15, 153, HST, 60, Pullmans, Maunsells, Hawksworths etc. Railroad then yes. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium spamcan61 Posted September 19, 2011 RMweb Premium Share Posted September 19, 2011 What about the future of Model Railways? I know this has been discussed (to death) but it is relevant to Hornby's strategy for the future. If they think that ours is the last generation to do model railways in earnest (as opposed to toy trains) they must look to other market growth areas in order to survive. John I think the UK model railway has a good 20 years + left in it, based on the fact that the fortysomethings mentioned above will have purchasing power for another 20 years. I suspect any reduction in fine hand fitted details will have more to do with the difficulties in getting it done properly out East, and the knock on effects of that in terms of delivery accuracy and costs. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete_mcfarlane Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Not much experience in model railway manufacturing to be seen. Not surprising really. The number of people employed in manufacturing model railways is tiny, so it's inevitable that people will have to be recruited with no direct experience. The days when people worked for one company all of their lives and end up on the board after 40 years are mostly long gone. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold The Stationmaster Posted September 19, 2011 Author RMweb Gold Share Posted September 19, 2011 I agree the article itself is the usual lazy journalism, but Hornby's shift of strategic direction towards movie tie-ins and suchlike has been clear from Frank Martin's first interviews when he took over the helm, and confirmed if you look at the experience of his current team. Just how worrying this should be for those buying current model railway products is debatable, but it's difficult to see it is a positive move. For the avoidance of doubt, I really don't think having a hardcore rivet counting trainspotter as CEO would be a good idea, it's just that the move away from the product range that revitalised their financial performance in the 2000s is worrying, as is their very public (from a shareholder perspective) inability to overcome their supplier problems out east. Exactly - those are the crucial points of it all. While the article came from a national newspaper one can expect some journalstic 'embroidering', but more importantly it came from the financial section of one of the 'heavies', which is the main reason I linked it. It is the section of the newspaper aimed at those with interest in business and/or who are likely to own or buy & sell small holdings of shares - and in that respect it looks as if Martin was trying to make a very serious point about the way he is steering the business. If that was not the case no doubt some sort of correction will be appearing in the DT shortly but I somehow doubt it. Clearly Hornby had reached the stage as a company a few years ago where it had to do something - it either had to grow or continue in a very nice market area, and it chose the former. But as Spamcan says it now seems to be turning away from the product range and marketing philosophy which did so much to revive its fortunes. And it seems to be moving into time critical market areas which it doesn't seem to be able to serve or meet at the right time - I hope I'm wrong but that strategy does seem to be not the brightest idea in the world. Interesting also are his comments about the 'problems' in the nerd market area. I don't know what is happening this time round but past experience has shown that the model railway market usually does pretty well in a recession and its clear that a number of retailers and other manufacturers remain happy and sufficiently persuaded to continue to broaden their offerings to the market. Time will tell but I think Frank martin has yet again made his views clear. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Metr0Land Posted September 19, 2011 RMweb Gold Share Posted September 19, 2011 What will be the business objectives of the Hornby Magazine in this brave new world, and how will it achieve them? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty Mc Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 As much as I disliked the article and what it may imply I do have to agree with 34theletterbetweenB&D. Hopefully the Belle will be higher spec. Shame really I am a real fan of the higher spec models. All good things sooner or later must come to an end and maybe Hornby have listened to their customers. How many times on this forum have you read about "too many detailed parts" or they got this and that wrong. Maybe Hornby have looked at the market, production costs etc and decided ahh far easier to make the railroad range, less complaints most accept the compromise on quality for the cheap price so lets run with it. I do know what they are doing makes good business sense but I dont like it one bit. Martin Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold The Stationmaster Posted September 19, 2011 Author RMweb Gold Share Posted September 19, 2011 The last time I saw demographics for Railway Modellers (and forgive me because I cannot find the source) it showed a "hump" in the 40 years plus age group. An aging market is not the future, unfortunately. What is really good about the UK market is the sheer volume of small entrepreneurs prepared to fill in the gaps. Alas, they do call for a wee bit more skill than simply opening a box, however. Best, Pete. I wonder if it actually works like that Pete I spend a lot of time in auction rooms and a frequent comment concerns the age of many buyers - they are generally 'older people'. But the interesting thing is that level of business in such places seems to be rising and so are some prices - in other words there is a regular supply of 'new' 'older people' coming along to top up the market and keep it going. And I suspect to some extent the same might well happen with railway modelling because it is a common for many older people to have more leisure time which they want to spend on things which interest them plus we tend to have more disposable income because we are mortgage free and - at present - have reasonably good pensions (except when our adult 'children' seem to regard us as the lender of last resort (and very, very long term repayment). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Y Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 What will be the business objectives of the Hornby Magazine in this brave new world, and how will it achieve them? I don't understand this post. Hornby Magazine is owned by Ian Allan, not Hornby Hobbies so this is wholly irrelevant. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Taz Posted September 19, 2011 RMweb Gold Share Posted September 19, 2011 I think the UK model railway has a good 20 years + left in it, based on the fact that the fortysomethings mentioned above will have purchasing power for another 20 years. That's a bit worrying, if most of us are expected to catch our last train in our 60's. Myself, I plan on going on a good bit further than that Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
trisonic Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 I don't see any problems with the factories in China providing a fine level of detail now or in the future - See the top of the line Atlas models for example. I do see however from reading this website some concern over the cost of new British locomotives that are heavily detailed with a commensurately large research spend. It is unfortunate that you can't have a higher lever of detail without an increase in retail prices, particularly in a small market like the British one. This seems to be a British view, can't get the detail, fine, please find a cheaper manufacturing area. For Mike: If detailed models for our niche area were highly profitable they would be falling over themselves to make us happy - it is patently obvious that Hornby, for one, are not. Sorry, I am rather playing the Devil's Advocate here! Best, Pete. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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