DJM wish list thread

[Revolution Mike]

I don't think that those pushing the case for electrics (or MUs) are any more "determined" than any other sector of the market!

 

The reality is that you can't model mainline operations for large parts of the country for large chunks of the last 50 years without electric locos and EMUs. Given an ever shrinking pool of diesel locos to pick from then someone (preferably a manufacturer) has to make the case for electrics and EMUs as it seems a very obvious area of potential expansion for the market.

 

I think we also need to put to bed this myth that electrics don't sell.  The Bachmann 85 sold well in all except one livery and even that has sold out from many shops. Farish have claimed that electrics don't sell yet continue to pump out 87s and 90s in new liveries or numbers - if they really don't sell why flog a dead horse? The Dapol 86 you can't get many of the original 4 liveries except for the RES variant.  I accept that some of them may not have sold as quickly or at top prices as other models, but there is plenty of other stuff that has struggled to sell and been discounted. Some of it is prototype choice, some poor livery choices, some flooding the market too quickly.

 

Until the market (both sides) crack this then it becomes a self-perpetuating story.

 

Cheers, Mike

[TerrySVR]

Just found this thread my choice;

 

WR

King  4700  4-6-0 County

 

SR

Adams Radial

 

Breakdown Crane DCC ready  Older style Coaches recessed doors for Milk Trains.

 

Terry

[Roy L S]

Hi Mike

 

Well I can only reiterate what Dave has said many times about the 86 so it certainly appears to be no myth, and I would certainly not challenge what he has said was his experience at Dapol or "nose" for the right product. It has has more recently been confirmed by Bachmann's disappointment with the poor sales of the Desiro too (utterly ludicrous that they have been discounted to as little as £90 for such a lovely model but it speaks volumes).

 

I would agree it is probably not a case of saying they don't sell at all, more that they have not sold in sufficient volume to justify any more investment. The old Farish 87 and 90 tooling has doubtless long since paid for itself, and I would anticipate that makes more runs of these less risky.

 

As far as your point about main lines is concerned, that may well be the case now but to refer to the last 50 years not really being representative. There was comparatively little main line electrification in the most popular by far steam/diesel transition period, most did not come until later, starting in the 1970s (e.g. Weaver Junction to Glasgow 1974, ECML late 1980s, Thameslink ditto, GE main line what early 1990s?). Ignoring Third Rail (As we are talking of OHLE) all we had was the start of 1960s was the first stages of the WCML, the Glasgow suburban electrics, Clacton electrics the rather unique Woodhead Route and one or two others. Lack of demand in that key modelling period may well be one of the issues.

 

Regards

 

Roy

[ThaneofFife]

So if i were to concur with previous views above i have to assume that the new class 90 must have been tabled for release around the same time that they penned the class 85. To assume otherwise suggests Bachmann were perfectly happy with their class 85 sales. If the sales were poor or slow etc then only a fool wouldve signed off for the new 90 a couple of years after the 85 announcement.

[Roy L S]

I would not presume to call anyone at Bachmann "fools" it may well be as you suggest, it may not. This 90 may reverse the trend, it may not, we will see.

 

There is some logic to it as a product in it's own right. Consider Karhedron's point above. It is a small class of locos but they have carried an enormous range of liveries in their short lifetime, indeed on my trips into London earlier in the year, it was pretty much the only AC electric I would see (apart from maybe the odd 92 at Willesden) and probably in at least three liveries (Including the First Scotrail livery for the Caledonian Sleeper). It was at home with all current diesel classes (66, 67, 70 and very occasional 56) therefore it could be argued that it's success is not that dependent on any other electric loco being available.

 

Maybe this could indeed be Bachmann's strategy and if successful maybe it will encourage sales of the Desiro too.

 

Regards

 

Roy

[ThaneofFife]

The class 87 isnt far behind the class 90 in terms of liveries albeit a higher proportion are one off (and that doesnt include any of the crossover liveries in Bulgaria).

You also have different pantographs and MU cabling and roof details that were carried on more than one livery so on this basis it too could make for another good product commercially with many variants possible.

Many class members underwent name changes during their careers too although i would need to check on livery crossovers.....

[wombatofludham]

In all honesty, does anyone really, really know that the Desiro and 85 have been "poor sellers"?  Were people on this board present in the boardroom at Barwell when the projects were signed off with, presumably, target sales figures and tooling amortisation periods being agreed?  And precisely how does an "N" guage model sales translate into evidence of potential in the far bigger OO scale market?

 

Unless I hear, directly from someone at Bachmann confirming the 85 and Dessie have been "disappointing" - which won't happen as it's commercially sensitive- then all other attempts to analyse the sales of the models on the basis of occasional discounting by box shifters (when if you look at the Bachmann website - which I gather shows availability in the warehouse - both the Dessie and 85 have both been shown as "not available" then "available" at a higher price - which says to me they've been restocked with a new run at revised prices) will be speculative froth based on prejudice or false assumptions.

 

Bachmann have announced a new AC electric at a time of relative austerity for the company.  Does anyone really think they would have gone ahead with a new AC loco if they really were sales death, ahead of another pretty kettle?  Even if they had spent money on design work, if electrics are such poor sellers and the 85 had been a turkey, they have had two years since the 85 launch to pull any further work an cut their losses before expending serious money on tooling and production and reserving valuable production capacity which could have been used on other projects.  The fact they've gone ahead says to me they have been happy with sales so far of the limited range (and don't forget the 85 and Desiro are not contemporaneous so if anyone buys an 85 they are unlikely to want a Dessie and vice versa) available and realise that there is a new market out there to grow sales into a whole new genre which hasn't been adequately covered so far.

[Karhedron]

In all honesty, does anyone really, really know that the Desiro and 85 have been "poor sellers"?

Not so sure about the 85s but Bachmann have told the NGS representatives that they are disappointed with the Desiro and 4-CEP sales.

[wombatofludham]

Not so sure about the 85s but Bachmann have told the NGS representatives that they are disappointed with the Desiro and 4-CEP sales.

 

In N Gauge?  I'm not surprised, N is a smaller market and you've only got the rather mixed ex Grafar 87 and 90 to run with the Desiro, neither of which are listed on the Bachmann website, together with the Dapol 86 in very late liveries, and then the Dessie can run with these models only in the early grey and blue livery, the later LM livery is only contemporaneous with the Pendolino - and no N gauge Pendolino exists.  In N the 4-CEP hasn't got much to run with it either, whatever it's faults, in OO you do have the 4-VEP as well as the 2-EPB, and even the 2-BIL.  If things are selling "disappointingly" you have to look at the wider picture.  People will want to run a representative range of stock, even if every possible combination of classes are not available, you need enough to be able to give some variety and look reasonably accurate.

 

I also find it odd that Bachmann apparently share confidential sales information with the public, I would have thought such information was commercially sensitive..

[Les1952]

 

I also find it odd that Bachmann apparently share confidential sales information with the public, I would have thought such information was commercially sensitive..

 

Similar story with the K3.  "Don't expect one in N, its our worst seller in OO".    From my experience they aren't always all that slow at telling you what DOESN'T sell, especially if it has the effect of subduing demand for something they don't really want to make...........

 

All the very best

Les

[Roy L S]

Coming back to the topic of this particular thread, which is DJM "Wish lists" as Dave has already said he is currently (1) not keen and (2) announced his range of products for the next two years I am thinking as far as Dave is concerned whatever argument there may or may not be for further AC electrics it is not on his "to do" list at present.

 

That is unless those who want a new (say) 87 in 00 were to propose their own "Kickstarter" project for one possibly? The level of pledges for the model would be one sure fire way of establishing how much demand is really out there and in what liveries and also reduce the commercial risk for a manufacturer?

 

Roy

Edited August 1, 2014 by Roy L S

[ThaneofFife]

I can think of other points but they arent really best placed on daves wishlist thread so i will pop over to the class 90 thread

[ThaneofFife]

Ha. can one take up a kick starter with any manufacturer????

[Roy L S]

To find out more about Crowd Funding I would suggest simply going to the "Kickstarter" website to understand how the process works.

 

Regards

 

Roy

[Karhedron]

Ha. can one take up a kick starter with any manufacturer????

Well, the manufacturer needs to be willing to take the work on. Dave has indicated that he is interested in the potential of kickstarter to fund new developments but only he can give you the yay or nay on a particular model.

[Karhedron]

I also find it odd that Bachmann apparently share confidential sales information with the public, I would have thought such information was commercially sensitive..

I think it is no secret that the 4-CEP and Desiro have both been heavily discounted but models from the first run remain available in stores. They aren't really telling us anything we don't already know.

[ThaneofFife]

I dont think we know anything in truth and these price discounts seem to come and go making it tricky to feel for the success of a model.

 

There was a time after release that the class 85s were being discounted (maybe due to there being plenty in abundance) but try finding a cheap one now brand new......

 

Its all pie in the sky......

[DJM Dave]

Hi,

 

If anyone wants to commission me to make a model for them based on a Kickstarter, even if it's an OHL loco, then that's fine by me, and feel free.

 

I'm just reticent about investing my cash, that's all. Lol

Cheers

Dave

[Revolution Mike]

Which is also true for various other models including steam locos  which have been discounted - should Bachmann stop producing steam locos?

 

We seem to be taking large illogical leaps based on relatively little information...

[Ian J.]

Hi,

 

If anyone wants to commission me to make a model for them based on a Kickstarter, even if it's an OHL loco, then that's fine by me, and feel free.

 

I'm just reticent about investing my cash, that's all. Lol

Cheers

Dave

 

Don't tempt me! For about five seconds I toyed with the Kickstarter idea for doing BPC, then realised that I suspect there wouldn't be enough people interested in that specific prototype to get enough funds together. And I'd want to do the CAD work myself rather than just let someone else do it.

[Roy L S]

This sure is getting repetitive...

 

Speaking specifically regarding N, how is Dave's stated experience of the 86 at Dapol and Bachmann's comments (as shared by Ben Ando) about the Desiro "relatively little" information? Here we have the two most recent 25kv products, both relatively recent releases to modern specification, highly detailed, DCC ready and with lights etc, both the manufacturers (or in Dave's case former Chief Designer) have said these models have not done well. Why is it so hard to accept that based on this OHLE is likely to remain a relatively "niche" area of modelling in N that will probably NOT attract significant investment from mainstream manufacturers?

 

IF there is such a fervent belief that sufficient market exists for a brand new 87 and/or 90 in N (to supercede existing Farish ones) and as such it is worth the risk to invest, then perhaps do some research to prove/disprove the demand (or if it exists already share it) and if it is viable consider going down the "Kickstarter" route to commission one. Dave has even said above that he would be open to discuss it.

 

As regards steam, I am sure there are locos that have not done well. Les has already alluded to the K3 being a poor seller in 00 such that it is unlikely to be produced in N. Personally I would like one in N and I know others who would too, but it is not reasonable or logical to expect a manufacturer to produce it if their 00 experience was so poor. Indeed in N as I am given to understand that only the existence of the existing B1 tender drive made the J39 a viable prospect. I would not be surprised to learn that the same is true of the A2 as a follow on to the A1 (and without the "Tornado" market appeal would we even have seen that?).

 

Turning to 00 and specifically availability of the 85 at heavy discounts, Hattons (just by way of an example - it was first place I looked) are selling E3056 BR Blue, single pan for £80 (list £112.45) with more than 10 in stock..

 

In 00 I though would probably concede that given significantly larger market volume generally there is likely to be more of a market for OHLE and indeed here Bachmann's relative willingness to invest with the 90 seems to confirm it. In 00 more models do already exist and here the issue appears to be more about how old and relatively poor they are against the current "state of the art" and needing upgrading rather than them not existing at all.

 

Roy

[ThaneofFife]

Roy youve lost me in that post, plus when you say the threads sure got repetitive you then cover previous ground again yourself. Come on man whats it to be. You cant have it both ways.

Im not sure quite which side of the fence youre on or if youre perched right on top of it.

Im also not sure what you stand to gain by asking for points to be proved or disproved.Its a very light hearted look at overhead modeks and doesnt require too much analysis really.

Edited August 2, 2014 by ThaneofFife

[Roy L S]

Hi Thane of Fife

 

Sorry to have lost you in that posting.

 

Where I am on this is pretty simple really. I personally choose to model the highly popular BR steam/diesel transition say 1957-66 but am interested in British railways generally, and have been since I was in short trousers, my interest extends from turn of the 20th century all the way to current times.

 

I live along the route of the WCML (Leighton Buzzard) and at one point recently was a regular traveller (on Desiros and the odd 321) into London. I observe the movements on the WCML on and off first hand - it is something I am very interested to follow and have got to know reasonably well. I am certainly not anti modern image or specifically 25kv electrics but do recognise their limitations in terms of being an attractive proposition for investment for a mainstream manufacturer (most specifically in the smaller N market).

 

The point I am trying to get across is that if manufacturers have said (and they have) that 25kv OHLE models are slow sellers in N and there is reference to two specific recent excellent "state of the art" models to substantiate this, in the absence of any other market research proving otherwise, we have to accept what they say and not expect investment in further similar models to be a high priority for them. Dave (returning to this "wish list" thread) has said that this is his position too.

 

If there is a belief that a new 25kv 87/90 or 92, Pendolino (or whatever) will sell in N, then that is contrary to the stated experience of the mainstream manufacturers (to date), so there is a need to (1) prove it and (2) find a way to make it happen. If the mainstream manufacturer will not "bite" then by way of (possibly) canvassing people to support one as a "Kickstarter" project, which Dave has said he would be receptive to. Now personally my modelling interests would not extend to more modern types generally but an electric blue AL5 just might tempt me to support such a project!

 

In terms of 00, I do not on reflection think it is anything like as clear cut as the Market is bigger, and if Olivias see a market to commission a 76 which only ever ran in service over the Woodhead Route then clearly there is a bigger and more diverse demand for even some "niche" OHLE models.

 

My reference to the K3 was to accept "Red Death's" point that there are slow sellers in steam too. The direct consequence of the slow sales of the K3 in 00 is that Bachmann have said it will not appear in N. It is a loco I (and a number of people) would like to see in N, but even with a suitable tender (and drive) already being available, I and those others will have to accept what the manufacturer says.

 

I hope this explains.

 

Regards

 

Roy

Edited August 2, 2014 by Roy L S

[Revolution Mike]

Roy

 

I really don't understand why you seem so keen to dampen down any enthusiasm about electrics. 

 

As for the comments from the manufacturers, whilst I don't doubt they portray *some* aspects the comments also need to be put into a wider context. I know for example at least one manufacturer where you get very different comments depending on who you speak to about exactly the same models.

 

Your point about the tooling being paid for on the 87 and 90 is completely incorrect - if they don't sell then they don't sell (regardless of whether the tooling is paid for).  All the costs are then production costs and it makes even less sense to produe extra batches if they are poor sellers, so things are not as clear cut as you make out.  I don't know where you got the idea that I want a new 87 or 90 - I'm more than happy to upgrade my Farish ones, but I would like to see more things to run with them.

 

At the end of the day neither of us have sufficient information to know the full picture - you seem to be determined to put the gloomiest picture possible on nuggets of information, I'm just trying to say that I don't think the picture is quite so gloomy.

 

Cheers, Mike

[Roy L S]

Hi Mike

 

As I have said in my reply to "Thane of Fife" I do not want to dampen anything down, I may not model 25kv electrics or Modern Image but I do follow them, not least because I live not far from the WCML.

 

What am saying is that there is a need to be realistic based on what manufacturers have said and not build up false hopes or unrealistic expectations. It is no different to me being realistic about models I would like (e.g. K3 and D49) when even though a perfectly suitable tender and tender drive exists we are told in the case of the first is not likely to happen and the second probably isn't even on their radar!

 

I mentioned the 87 and 90 only because they were referred to earlier in this thread. Regarding your comments on costing I am afraid I cannot follow your logic. Surely for any product you will amortise tooling cost over so many units. Even the slowest seller will hopefully cover those costs eventually, even if it means heavy discounting between manufacturer, retailer and in the end us as purchaser. The most successful products will sell out initial batches quickly, with little of it "sticking" on shelves and less need to discount. 

 

However once the tooling is paid for then as you rightly say costs are for production only, so surely unless the model is a total "lemon" that has taken years to cover it's costs (and naturally therefore assuming further sales are considered viable if that is your point) that means less cost per unit, less risk, less units to sell before costs are covered and assuming same RRP greater margin (meaning also more latitude to discount)?

 

I.e. it is less costly and therefore less risky to produce further batches from existing tooling than to tool for a completely new model.

 

I am not trying to paint a gloomy picture Mike, just wanting to be realistic. If there is felt to be demand for a particular product, surely it is not difficult with forums such as this for an individual (or group of individuals) to do a poll of members and if that looks good seek to crowd fund it, or put that research to the manufacturers (or indeed NGS).

 

Regards

 

Roy

Edited August 3, 2014 by Roy L S