Dungrange

Yes, but at the moment, people in lots of other countries still look at the 81,000 cases in China and think "I don't want to go there". Other countries are still banning travel to/from China, so I guess the demand for foreigners to go and reinfect the Chinese population isn't there yet. However, I agree that their is a potential vulnerability there. However, the number of active cases in China (~12,000) has now dropped below the number of active cases in Italy (~15,000), so the World Health Organisation (WHO) is correct in identifying Europe as the epicentre of the problem. Ideally Governments around the world would be looking at how South Korea has handled their outbreak. From 8,086 cases to date, they have had only 72 deaths, which is a case fatality ratio of just 0.89%. Also reassuring is that of their remaining 7,300 active cases, only 59 are in a serious or critical condition, so the final mortality figure may not be radically different from the current proportion. Their high testing regime seems to have potentially picked up a lot of mild cases that are probably going undetected elsewhere, but which is causing greater spread. The data from South Korea points to the WHO estimated mortality rate of 3.4% being too high, which is positive. The alarming point though is when you apply this low mortality rate from South Korea (0.89%) to Italy, where the number of deaths is currently 1,266, that would lead to the conclusion that the number of people infected with Coronavirus in Italy could be closer to 142,179, which is obviously much, much higher than the number of confirmed cases (17,660). Do I believe that there are more than 120,000 mild cases in Italy that haven't been diagnosed yet? Probably not, which means that the death rate in Italy seems to be greater than South Korea. Some of this can probably be attributed to demographic factors, most noticeably a higher proportion of people above the age of 65, but we need to try and understand what other factors are contributing to the differences between South Korea and Italy.

The problem with looking at China as a single homogeneous country is that it is not. Around three quarters of cases and deaths occurred in just one province: Hubei. Hubei province has a population of almost 60 million, so is directly comparable in size to Italy. Hubei province ~ 61,000 cases: Italy ~ 18,000 cases Hubei province ~ 2,300 deaths: Italy ~ 1,200 deaths The main difference is that China seems to have been better at containing the main impact to Hubei, whereas in Europe, the number of cases spreading to Spain, France, Germany, the UK and many other EU countries has been much less effective, which is the most worrying thing.

Personally, I'd go with putting an order in and being patient. Some of the 'one man businesses' operate from the owners home with the owner having a full or part-time job somewhere else to pay the bills. In such scenarios, if the owner is unable to work for their main employer due to a shut-down, they may actually have more time to dedicate to their sideline business from home.

Have a look at https://www.worldometers.info/ As well as world population counters, there are also ones for many other causes of death this year globally. Almost 95,000 from seasonal flu; 60,000 from childbirth; 191,000 from malaria; 488,000 from alcohol; 977,000 from smoking; 1.6 million from cancer; 209,000 from suicide; 264,000 from road traffic accidents. You can look at the others. The number of deaths from Covid-19 is still very small by comparison, but nonetheless rising at an alarming rate. Of course the biggest cause of death worldwide is actually from hunger: 2.1 million people this year.

I think that is precisely the issue. There is a sense that we should prepare for an enforced period of isolation (like in Northern Italy) to reduce the risk of being infected and/or spreading infection to others, but when will that happen? - Don't know. What parts of the country will be most affected? - Don't know. What should anyone be doing to 'be prepared'? - Don't know. My wife bought a multi-pack of toilet roll on her last trip to the supermarket. Why? Well it was apparently because everyone else seems to be buying it. Since no-one really knows the best way to prepare, they tend to copy others and that creates the problem. I also read an article where a psychologist stated that when we panic we are usually drawn to grabbing larger items such as toilet roll, as we tend to think that size is important - ie we want to grab the biggest thing we can find and there isn't too much that bigger than a multi-pack of toilet rolls.

If you search for "Brian Kirby couplings", you should get various threads about the modifications that Brian Kirby proposed - effectively extending the bottom part of the coupling with a piece of metal, so that it is attracted to a magnet.

No. The 1% figure is one that has been made up by that well known expert called Donald Trump. Toilet paper knows more than he does - perhaps that's why people are buying it. The latest World Heath Organisation estimate is a mortality rate of 3.4% for Coronavirus. The latest figures for China are 80,703 cases, of which 3,098 have died, which works out at a case mortality rate of at least 3.8%. 57,333 people in China (71%) have recovered, which leaves 20,272 active cases: final outcome unknown. If the survival rate of these active cases is the same as the closed cases (ie one for which there is an outcome) then that will give a final case mortality rate for China of something around 5%. However, there will be some under reporting of people who have just mild symptoms and never get tested, which is why the WHO figure is lower. However, it's pretty clear from China that the mortality impacts of Coronavirus are tens of times greater than for seasonal flu. The figures emerging for Italy are much worse than China. This could be because Asian people have better immunity than white Caucasians in Europe to this particular virus, or it could be because the population in Europe is older and as has been pointed out males over the age of 60, especially those with pre-existing medical conditions, seem to be the most likely to die. It could also point to the virus mutating into a more dangerous strain than those who were first affected. It is really too early to tell.

If 35,000,000 people in the USA caught the flu and 50,000 died from it (which sounds about right), that works out at a mortality rate of 0.142% (ie 50,000 / 35,000,000). Look at the latest Coronavirus statistics from Italy, and from 7,375 people who have tested positive, 366 have died (as of today). That works out at a mortality rate of about 5% - ie about 1 in 20 people who have tested positive have gone on to die. However, half of the active cases have only recently tested positive, so some of them may die as well. If you compare the number who have died in Italy (366) with the number in Italy who have tested positive and recovered (622) then the Coronavirus mortality rate could be quite a bit higher than current estimates. Even taking the World Health Organisation's latest estimated mortality rate of 3.4%, if you apply that to 35 million catching Coronavirus, you'd get 1.19 million deaths - quite a bit more than 50,000. It's definitely something that needs to be taken seriously, even if as yet the numbers testing positive in the UK works out at about one in every 250,000 people.

I can see the Scalextric similarity - I used to have a similar figure of eight style Scalextric set when I was a child. It was fun trying to get the cars to stay on the track. Of course whether a layout can be operated like the real railway or not isn't important to many young children and a lot of published layout plans are possibly intended to cater for their needs as much as those of an adult. Operating at exhibitions, you'll occasionally hear an excited (and usually hopeful) "they're going to crash" from a young child who possibly finds layouts that aim for prototypical operation at prototypical speeds a bit dull. A head on collision with wagons derailing everywhere might be quite appealing to a young age group, but as an adult, I wouldn't relish the thought of a high speed impact between two new DCC Sound fitted locomotives hauling rakes of wagons costing £50 a piece. I have a different perspective compared to a young boy. Looking at the plan in the first post, I note that the stations have platforms that are around 18" in length. That's effectively a locomotive and a single coach - that's all that can be accommodated in the 'station'. Such short trains don't appeal to me, but to a child with pocket money constraints, they just have to pretend that their one coach train is actually a prestigious express. Growing up, I've lost that ability to pretend. I think you need to think about whether you are trying to create a model of the real railway or simply trying to create the sort of train set that you might have wanted as a boy. I can see that as a young child, I would probably have coveted the layout plan in the original post. Lots of track and the opportunity to run trains all over the place - who cares about prototypical operating practises. However, I'm no longer that young boy, which is why the original plan no longer appeals to the adult me.

I guess the question is what do you want from the layout? The first plan that you posted looks very much like it was an attempt to squeeze as much track as possible into the available space. Perhaps it's Hornby's desire to sell as much track as possible. That's not for me, but it is what some people want and that's okay. With regards your second plan, I'll make three comments: Both circuits have sections with R605 double first radius curves. These are okay if you plan to limit yourself to shorter wheelbase or older stock, but many newer models are designed for a minimum of second radius (ie R607). As such, the layout as drawn may prohibit you from running some new stock that you may like. If possible consider the use of R607 and R609 instead of R605 and R607. Gradients are something that personally I would avoid. You are going to need something like 3" or 75 mm clearance between your upper and lower track levels and you have something like 12 feet of track in which to make that climb and descent. That therefore gives you an average gradient of around 1:36, which is very much at the steep end of what people find acceptable. Possible problems will be exacerbated by the tight curves in the middle of your gradient, which is usually where it will be steepest. Steep gradients mean that you need to run shorter trains. The definition of short will be dependent on the locomotives that you plan to use. Diesel locomotives tend to have better haulage than steam locomotives, but you're probably still going to limit yourself to maybe three or four coach trains at most and some locomotives may struggle with more than two coaches. It would be worthwhile conducting some gradient tests with your stock before committing to the plan. There doesn't appear to be any 'operational interest'. All you can do is drive two trains round and round, up and down your gradient. That might be all that you want, but I feel that there needs to be a purpose, otherwise the operation becomes boring. I would therefore be looking for some sidings that you can shunt, so you have at least half a dozen wagons that you need to marshal into your next goods train. Will there be a station? Does it need a loop to hold a train or a bay platform to allow a Diesel Multiple Unit or similar to turn back. When designing a layout, try to work through the way you would envisage operating it. Where does the train start from; in which direction are you going to drive it and how do you get back to where you started? Use your finger to trace your route. At the moment, you have shown a point that will presumably lead to a station, goods yard or motive power depot. You can drive out forwards, but to get back there, you need to reverse the train in after it has made several circuits of your track. Is that the type of operation that you want?

But... surely your "loyalty" was to the previous manager not the business. If the previous manager was a friend, then you would likely have got more out of the job because it was also a chance to socialise with someone whom you liked. I sense that you don't have that same sort of relationship with your new management, which means that you now have nothing but a poorly paid job.

If you don't enjoy the job and don't need the money, then I'm not sure why you're still there. If you need the money later, I'm sure that there are plenty of other minimum wage jobs that you could take.

According to the linked article, "the protests (are) in support of five Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs who oppose the passage of the $6.6 billion Coastal GasLink natural gas pipeline through their traditional territory in Northern British Columbia". It's clearly designed to raise awareness of their grievances. Unfortunate for all of the businesses who are impacted though.

I'd only provide switch 1 for that very reason - ie a DC 009 locomotive could be left on the track when a DCC locomotive was being tested on the 00 track. However, you could replace that switch with simply lifting stock off and on each track and leave them both live and controlled from the same source at the same time if that is what would be preferred. However, switches are not that expensive. I think the only essential is to use Double Pole switches to keep the DC and DCC controllers completely separate and also to keep the Programming and Main outputs from the DCC Command Station completely separate - ie no common return between any of the controller outputs.

It doesn't look like you've left much space for scenery, so I'd tend to just keep things simple with some grass in the corners. If you're looking for buildings, then I'd probably consider a signal box in the triangular shaped are in the bottom middle. An engine servicing point or engine shed on one of the lines off your turntable. I notice at the top edge, you seem to have two tracks that look as though they are touching. Is that the case? It looks as though anything that you drive from your centre circuit into that pair of sidings to the left will hit anything driving on your outer circuit. I also note that these sidings are rather short - not much longer than the length of a large locomotive. Plenty of space to stable locomotives, but nowhere to park a rake of wagons or coaches.

Okay, I'd buy three Double Pole Double Throw (DPDT) switches preferably with centre off positions and these would be labelled: Switch 1 - '00 - 009'; Switch 2 - 'DC - DCC'; and Switch 3 - 'Programming - Main' Two track feeds from your 00 track to the left of switch 1 and two track feeds from your 009 track to the right side of switch 1. The centre terminals on switch 1 would then be connected to the centre terminals on switch 2. The left terminals on switch 2 would be connected to your DC controller. The right terminals on switch 2 would be connected to the centre terminals on switch 3. The left terminals on switch 3 would be connected to the programming output from your DCC Command Station and the right terminals on switch 3 would be connected to the main output from your DCC Command Station.

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That may be the correct term - I'm just wondering if different words have different meanings. I've seen "Pension Forecast" used in relation to the UK State Pension and "Pension Illustration" used in relation to Self Invested Personal Pensions (SIPPs). I was therefore wondering if "Pension Quotation" or whatever term Terry has used is taken to mean something else in relation to company pension schemes. I guess the other potential source of misunderstanding is, does that "Pension Prediction" age have to be a certain time in the future - ie at least three or six months from now. That is, if Terry was to ask for a prediction as to what he would receive at say 59 and 65 then he would get an illustration of likely amount paid at these ages, but asking for one now (at his current age), means that the only way for the provider to give an exact figure, as opposed to an approximate one at some future date, is to ask Terry to sign up to the reduced pension. I seem to recall reading that you can't get a State Pension Forecast within about three months of reaching State Retirement Age.

But surely if it was bought as a present before Christmas 2019 and was not reported as faulty until after Christmas 2020, then the 12 month warranty has expired. Obviously the contract of sale is with the retailer, but since more than 12 months have now passed, would it be worthwhile contacting Dapol directly since it looks like the spare (blanking plate) that you need isn't available via their website?

Just looking at the Pension Wise website (https://www.pensionwise.gov.uk/en) it looks as though they can only advise on options in relation to a defined contribution scheme (also known as a 'money purchase' scheme) whereas it sounds as though Terry has a defined benefit scheme (ie either a final salary or career average salary scheme). That therefore puts this into the area for requiring personal advice from a qualified adviser rather than a phone service where someone can talk through the pros and cons of all the options for those with a defined contribution scheme. I think Polybear is correct and that what Terry has referred to as "pay back 5%" is actually a reduction in the amount that Terry would have been entitled to had he worked to 65: a reduced pension for retiring early. As others have said, that's what would seem to be the norm and is my understanding of the way most schemes work. Perhaps that hasn't been explained very well by the pension provider - ie Terry has misunderstood the terminology used or the way it has been presented. To try and explain, had Terry worked for 23.5 years at a salary of £20,000 per annum, he might have expected a pension of say 23.5 / 80 * £20,000 = £5,875 per annum starting at age 65. However, if he was to retire at age 58 (7 years early), then he would only receive 65% of that pension - ie £3,819 per annum (100% - 7 * 5%). Taking the reduced pension now would give Terry £26,731 in pension payments before the age of 65 (ie 7 * £3,819) but means that he'd be getting about £2,000 per annum less from age 65. How these sort of figures fit in with the rest of Terry's income is where an adviser is required. I would have expected the pension company to provide Terry with a breakdown of what he would receive if he was to take his pension now, but it seems as though they must think that they have provided this information and are therefore taking Terry's request for more information as an instruction to take the pension early hence the statements about signing up to the reduced pension. That doesn't seem very satisfactory, but I'm not sure what the correct question to ask the pension provider is. Is there a specific name for a future benefits quotation?

The NEXT 18 interface does indeed have 18 pins and therefore you will need to fit a NEXT 18 blanking plate if you want to remove the sound decoder and run on DC. However, any NEXT 18 blanking plate will do - it's not model or manufacturer specific. Are you sure one didn't come with the model? Unfortunately, I think the Farish Class 37 has the older six pin interface, so blanking plates from these will not be suitable, but interfaces do change over time. However, if the locomotive was bought new from Hattons with sound fitted by them or the manufacturer then I would return it to them as faulty. It may be that it has shorted out on the point which has destroyed the decoder, but if other stock works fine through that point, then it would imply that the issue was maybe the back-to-back on one of the wheel-sets of the Class 68, which would arguably make it faulty model. Of course if that was the problem, the question is why your Command Station did not shut down quickly enough and the answer to that is usually inadequate wiring.

Terry, I'm not really qualified to advise, but I don't think that an equity release loan sounds like the right idea if you'd like to move from Essex to retire in the West Country. My understanding is that with an equity release loan you effectively hand over the property that you own in return for some capital and the right to continue living in the property. When you pass away, the Equity Release company can then sell the property. That doesn't fit if you plan to move. You say that moving to the West Country is a long term goal, but if you can't find work locally, what is stopping you making that move now? Why does it have to be a long term goal? I guess the question is whether employment prospects in the West Country are better or worse than they are in Essex and whether house prices in Essex are higher or lower than where you would like to move to. I don't know very much about either area. I guess my question is whether you could sell your property in Essex, buy something smaller in the West Country and have some cash left over? You would then look for a new job in the West Country. As for depression, I fully sympathise with the lack of mojo and the fact the you don't feel as motivated or gain pleasure from things that you once did. Your doctor may describe antidepressants, but whilst they do moderate the lows, they also tend to take away the highs as well and of course they don't actually deal with the circumstances that cause you to feel depressed. That needs you to identify what is actually causing you to be depressed.

I'd agree with that. I've only left an employer once and went back to university. What company did I get a job with when I graduated again? The same one that I'd left. I work in a different department in a different office, but I still occasionally end up in meetings or on calls with former colleagues from my earlier period of employment. As for early retirement, I think the pros must outweigh the cons. The only problem is that being able to retire at 65 is becoming steadily more difficult. When I first took out a personal pension, I had the notion that it would allow me to retire at 55 (the minimum in those days was actually 50), but I've since realised that was wholly unrealistic and since my former final salary and career average salary schemes have since been closed, I think 62 - 64 is about the earliest that I may be afford to retire at. However, there will always be plenty of people who unfortunately have to work until the state retirement age, which is currently 68 for me, but who knows what it will be for the younger generation when they reach that stage in life.

Scenically it's a lovely layout, so I'm not surprised that you've been invited to another couple of exhibitions. I'm just wondering if I'd get bored operating something similar for an hour or two let alone a whole day at an exhibition. Unfortunately, trying to find an idea to copy isn't easy when sticking to a micro-layout format.

Now that the Maidenhead & Marlow MRC's exhibition in January 2020 is in the past, how much fun was it to operate at the show? I fancy a small layout, but as I prefer operation to construction, it would need to have some operating potential, so needs to be more than just a 'fork'. Are you able to run anything other than two or three locomotives on a layout that size?