Carmarthen to Aberystwyth

[Enterprisingwestern]

I have to comment that the economic impracticality of this proposal seemed a given to me even before Mike Stationmaster's comment; I absolutely agree with Mike, who has considerable experience in this field and should be listened to IMHO; I would love to see this route resuscitated but the only way it can be done as far as I can see is as a heavily loss making social railway with no hope of even coming close to paying it's way.  If it's going to cost that much, you may as well let the passengers travel free, the only way you'll fill the trains!

 

The theory could be taken to the other, (implausible but probably considerably cheaper), extreme and give the whole line to the Gwili Railway and let them run it as heritage line with a social needs service provided, something along the lines of the Swanage Railway and others?

 

Mike.

[JohnR]

Probably a line that shouldnt have closed, and kept alive as a basic railway. However, the economic and operational case for reopening is virtually non-existent. However, politics has a role to play. Plaid is strongest in the west of wales, and could easily campaign for it on the basis that most investment goes to south wales. Labour could very well need Plaid to govern after the next elections - as they had a formal coalition from 2007-11 its not impossible. Result? Line reopens in 2030. 

[Darius43]

Given that HS2 is allegedly having the brakes put on to fund the Crossrail shortfall, I would agree that proposals like this one are unfortunately a waste of good paper (or cyberspace) whatever the merits of the case.

 

Still it’s a good work opportunity for consultants judging by the plethora of names in the written by and checked by section at the start of the report. Looks like the whole office got a piece of the action.

 

Darius

Edited December 17, 2018 by Darius43

[royaloak]

No real need to go past figure 1, a best case BCR of 0.43 so no chance.

[Three Cocks Junction]

The Ghosts of Christmas Past, Present and future - say, start building it now!

 

(With Carte Blanche and a Lottery/Heritage grant for the Gwili Railway Society to rebuild the Mid-Wales Line as a mandatory part of the deal!)

 

Scrooge says Beeching was right all along!

[woodenhead]

Isn't there a long term aspect, there may not be a great deal of current prospective use but that is because people will have moved away from those towns due to the poor roads and a lack of usable public transport.

 

Bring back the trains and is might actually drive some development of the area which would be a government aim.

[Reorte]

Why on Earth does the consultant's report superimpose the proposed route onto a 1-inch Ordnance Survey map from the 1950s, meaning that it is impossible to see directly the impact on the current situation?!

Copyright most likely, that could be the most recent edition of OS maps that's out of copyright.

[corneliuslundie]

This scheme has been around for some time. A claimed justification is that there are lots of students in Carmarthen and Aberystwyth. Relative to the populations there are, but why should they want to travel to the other town?

The real problem is that because the line was originally built as far as Strata Florida as part of a route from Manchester to Milford Haven (see how it veers left just north of the station to head instead for Aber) it misses all the biggest places in the area as they are on or nearer the coast. Strata Florida ain't going to generate much traffic. Pencader, Tregaron and Lampeter are the only sizeable places. According to what I can find their populations are 336 (though that doesn't square with a statement about the village; "It is a quiet village set in a west Wales valley with little more than 500 houses two shops and two pubs"), 1213, and 2970 plus 1000 students, respectively.

Some time ago I looked at the bus services between C and A. There were about ten a day and they were faster than any of the trains had ever been, also serving more communities.

Had the original line served Cardigan, Newcastle Emlyn, Aberaeron etc - OK I know they are not lined up so as to make that possible - then there might have been enough local traffic to justify reopening.

However, as has been suggested there are political aspects to the proposal, and it is not going to go away, though I am pretty sure that all that will be spent on it is lots of consultancy fees. Political enthusiasm means that Aberystwyth is getting its re-opened station at Bow Street on the basis of park and ride traffic. Carno (pop 730) meanwhile is unlikely to get anything since Powys is determined not to commit to anything except the occasional report, and Abermule, which was just a pub, a shop, a garage and a  farm when the station closed, is even less likely even though the population is now about 1500 with nearby Llandyssul - there are several hundred new houses. Neither of these needs any new railway built, just a platform.

The moral: become a consultant!

Jonathan

Edited December 17, 2018 by corneliuslundie

[Darius43]

The moral: become a consultant!

Jonathan

 

I recall a spoof "motivational poster" with a picture of two suited arms shaking hands with the statement below thus: "Consultancy - if you're not part of the solution there's good money to be made prolonging the problem".

 

Cheers

 

Darius

[The Johnster]

Probably a line that shouldnt have closed, and kept alive as a basic railway. However, the economic and operational case for reopening is virtually non-existent. However, politics has a role to play. Plaid is strongest in the west of wales, and could easily campaign for it on the basis that most investment goes to south wales. Labour could very well need Plaid to govern after the next elections - as they had a formal coalition from 2007-11 its not impossible. Result? Line reopens in 2030. 

 

And closes in 2035 having been a fiduciary black hole that prevented cash being available for road improvements and terminally blighted any rail re-openings in Wales for the next century, probably bringing down whatever government has the poisoned chalice of closing it.

 

Sorry, but us cynics always describe ourselves as realists...

[John_Miles]

I used to work for a consultant back in the 1970s and turned out this sort of waffle.

 

The line never paid in Victorian times when there was no road competition, indeed it cost the Barrow family (the same people after whom Barrow Hill  is named) a lot of money. If this goes ahead it would use up huge sums on money which the Welsh Government could use more profitably elsewhere.

 

Also, the population of the are is small so there aren't many votes to be gained.

[Joseph_Pestell]

I used to work for a consultant back in the 1970s and turned out this sort of waffle.

 

The line never paid in Victorian times when there was no road competition, indeed it cost the Barrow family (the same people after whom Barrow Hill  is named) a lot of money. If this goes ahead it would use up huge sums on money which the Welsh Government could use more profitably elsewhere.

 

Also, the population of the are is small so there aren't many votes to be gained.

 

Sometimes, it does not matter if there are a lot of votes - just that they are in the right place.

[wombatofludham]

This report reads as a spend a bit of money with a consultant study to kill off the aspirations of all the dewy eyed wishlisting romantics who keep clogging up the local council/AM/MP/Welsh Government mailboxes with requests to re-open the line.  It may seem like a monumental waste of money to commission a consultant's report but sometimes it is the only way in what purports to be a democratic system to shut up the unrealistic dreamers who are convinced their pet project is not only viable but the saviour of the local economy and guaranteed to make money hand over fist.  Been there, commissioned the report.

Sadly public bodies are not generally in a position to say "*** off and die, you're wasting everyone's time with your pie in the sky ideas" so have to spend a bit of money to go through a fig-leaf exercise to hopefully put all but the most swivel-eyed zealots in their boxes.

I know that sounds cynical but I spent all my working life in local authorities or PTEs and trust me, some of the whacky ideas we got crossing my desk to which I had to compose some sort of meaningful reply were bizarre, and where a group of well meaning campaigners got organised and recruited some idiot local reporter to their way of thinking, it usually ended up requiring a bit more than a standard kiss-off letter.

[locoholic]

Looking at this issue through the other end of the telescope, if Carmarthen - Aberystwyth is such a basket case, why is the the line from Shrewsbury to Aber still open? And how should the railway network in Wales be developed, or is it doomed to be fossilised as just the routes that Dr Beeching couldn't get closed?

[Joseph_Pestell]

Looking at this issue through the other end of the telescope, if Carmarthen - Aberystwyth is such a basket case, why is the the line from Shrewsbury to Aber still open? And how should the railway network in Wales be developed, or is it doomed to be fossilised as just the routes that Dr Beeching couldn't get closed?

 

It is fairly remarkable that so much of the Welsh network has survived. Beeching's axe was much sharper in England and Scotland.

[mozzer models]

It is fairly remarkable that so much of the Welsh network has survived. Beeching's axe was much sharper in England and Scotland.

in south wales a lot of the lines were used to move coal from the mines

[wombatofludham]

Shrewsbury-Aberwystwyth survived because of the politics of the day.  Following the destruction of Capel Celyn, a Welsh speaking farming community to provide a reservoir for Liverpool, there was an upsurge in Welsh nationalist politics that were increasingly looking like they would turn violent, bombs having been detonated at the reservoir construction site.  At the time, the Ruabon to Barmouth and Shrewsbury to Aberwystwyth routes were both under the microscope and both were slated for closure.  There was a debate amongst Welsh politicians in Westminster about the impact on Welsh politics of closing these two lines.  Indeed, according to a number of sources, the Ruabon to Barmouth line was nearly reprieved but as flooding washed away part of the line, it was closed.  The prospect of closing the last remaining mid-Wales route was considered too much and it was reprieved.  The designation of Newtown as a "new town" for mid-Wales, with it's own development corporation charged with developing the town into a growth centre may have helped, together with Aberystwyth at the other end of the line, which is not just the University town but also home to the National Library and a significant administrative centre for the surrounding area, it is the most important settlement in mid-Wales.

The Cambrian Coast line very nearly got closed but again was saved by a strong local campaign taking advantage of a political situation in London.

Today both are well used, there are capacity issues throughout the year on the Aberystwyth route at peak times and the Cambrian enjoys good all year round usage by locals and tourists in the summer.  Both show how proper investment and service improvements can rejuvenate rural routes, as has happened in Norfolk through the Community Rail Partnerships.  Thank goodness the politicians in the 1960s were worried the Welsh Nationalist movement would use closing the line as a rallying cry and kept the line open.

[The Johnster]

The Wales that suffered the Beeching era closures (incidentally he did not propose closing Carmarthen-Aberystwyth, a landslip did that, and even then the line survived for some time to serve creameries) has changed somewhat.  Shops, offices, banks, and hospitals are more centralised in the larger population centres, and capacity of what was never a good road network except for the northern and southern corridors is much more stretched.  The situation is, on the face of it, more conducive to successful rail operations.  Despite this, the Cambrian and Central Wales have only survived with a lot of political input, and are difficult to justify economically, presumably part of whatever rationale there is for this scheme.  It is no more daft to provide a railway from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth than it is from Llanelli to Shrewsbury, or Shrewsbury to Pwllheli.  Or Llandudno Jc to Blaenau Ffestiniog; only in the post industrial South are sufficient passengers to be had.

 

But the Central illustrates the point about politics.  Closing it would be political suicide, and the former Secretary of State, George Thomas famously informed Harold Wilson when the line was scheduled for closure in 1969 'but, Prime Minister, you can't close it, it runs through five marginal constituencies'.  And those constituencies do not have the same Nationalist support as Carmarthen-Aberystwyth, or the Cambrian downline from Machynlleth for that matter either.  

 

The reality is that even a bus service linking Cardiff and Holyhead once a day, and Aberystwyth from both 3 times (the 'Traws Cambria), failed due to lack of traffic; a railway has no hope!

Edited December 17, 2018 by The Johnster

[JohnR]

Looking at this issue through the other end of the telescope, if Carmarthen - Aberystwyth is such a basket case, why is the the line from Shrewsbury to Aber still open? And how should the railway network in Wales be developed, or is it doomed to be fossilised as just the routes that Dr Beeching couldn't get closed?

 

It passed through a number of marginal constituencies, didnt it?

[locoholic]

The Wales that suffered the Beeching era closures (incidentally he did not propose closing Carmarthen-Aberystwyth, a landslip did that, and even then the line survived for some time to serve creameries) has changed somewhat.  Shops, offices, banks, and hospitals are more centralised in the larger population centres, and capacity of what was never a good road network except for the northern and southern corridors is much more stretched.  The situation is, on the face of it, more conducive to successful rail operations.  Despite this, the Cambrian and Central Wales have only survived with a lot of political input, and are difficult to justify economically, presumably part of whatever rationale there is for this scheme.  It is no more daft to provide a railway from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth than it is from Llanelli to Shrewsbury, or Shrewsbury to Pwllheli.  Or Llandudno Jc to Blaenau Ffestiniog; only in the post industrial South are sufficient passengers to be had.

 

But the Central illustrates the point about politics.  Closing it would be political suicide, and the former Secretary of State, George Thomas famously informed Harold Wilson when the line was scheduled for closure in 1969 'but, Prime Minister, you can't close it, it runs through five marginal constituencies'.  And those constituencies do not have the same Nationalist support as Carmarthen-Aberystwyth, or the Cambrian downline from Machynlleth for that matter either.  

 

The reality is that even a bus service linking Cardiff and Holyhead once a day, and Aberystwyth from both 3 times (the 'Traws Cambria), failed due to lack of traffic; a railway has no hope!

Carmarthem - Aberystwyth was definitely on Dr Beeching's closure list. The flood damage just meant it closed early.

 

I just wonder if political expediency saved some lines, whether devolution and nationalism means that a national Welsh rail network is perceived necessity, regardless of economics.

[DCB]

The Wales that suffered the Beeching era closures (incidentally he did not propose closing Carmarthen-Aberystwyth, a landslip did that, and even then the line survived for some time to serve creameries) has changed somewhat.  Shops, offices, banks, and hospitals are more centralised in the larger population centres, and capacity of what was never a good road network except for the northern and southern corridors is much more stretched.  The situation is, on the face of it, more conducive to successful rail operations.  Despite this, the Cambrian and Central Wales have only survived with a lot of political input, and are difficult to justify economically, presumably part of whatever rationale there is for this scheme.  It is no more daft to provide a railway from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth than it is from Llanelli to Shrewsbury, or Shrewsbury to Pwllheli.  Or Llandudno Jc to Blaenau Ffestiniog; only in the post industrial South are sufficient passengers to be had.

 

But the Central illustrates the point about politics.  Closing it would be political suicide, and the former Secretary of State, George Thomas famously informed Harold Wilson when the line was scheduled for closure in 1969 'but, Prime Minister, you can't close it, it runs through five marginal constituencies'.  And those constituencies do not have the same Nationalist support as Carmarthen-Aberystwyth, or the Cambrian downline from Machynlleth for that matter either.  

 

The reality is that even a bus service linking Cardiff and Holyhead once a day, and Aberystwyth from both 3 times (the 'Traws Cambria), failed due to lack of traffic; a railway has no hope!

 

Oh well it will be interesting to see if any of the political parties add this to their manifestos which they are frantically writing at this moment ready for the General election early next year.

[The Johnster]

From the politician's viewpoint, there's probably more mileage to be had in supporting the extension of the electrification to Swansea as originally intended; the present government lost a lot of friends west of Cardiff over this!

[Zomboid]

Descending briefly into madness, would it really need to be heavy rail? They're going in for tram-train in the new Wales franchise, and maybe a tram-train approach would give other options for any places where conventional heavy rail construction would be problematic.

 

I doubt it's ever been done over such distances, but I don't see why it couldn't, if the vehicles had an appropriate interior specification.

[Enterprisingwestern]

Does it even have to be standard gauge, would metre gauge work out any cheaper?

 

Mike.

[Zomboid]

Depends where the trains are going. If a Swansea to Aberystwyth service is desired then it would have to be standard. If Carmarthen is good enough then a narrow gauge option may have merit.