Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[robert17649]

g&T all round starting now!

[Bernard Lamb]

4 hours ago, maico said:

 

What a strange post...

Please explain what you find strange about it.

If less than 20k deaths is regarded by the government as a good outcome and you refer to a very much lower figure as grim then how would you describe this figure?

That seems to me to be a perfectly logical and reasonable question to ask.

Or are you frightened to get into a discussion and prefer to sit back and make snide comments?

Bernard, who is getting a bit fed up of people taking the piss and not taking this problem seriously.

 

[jjb1970]

I would say that finding a 1000 deaths grim would indicate that the person is taking this very seriously.

[jcredfer]

52 minutes ago, Downendian said:

Here's the French study referred to earlier if anyone is interested.

the topic Mr Trump and Tony Fauci were debating,

neil 

Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf 312.88 kB · 2 downloads

Very interesting investigation, with existing approved products, which look like they might possibly be effective in reducing  the effects of Covid-19.  Also interesting was the comment that it would be worth investigating the possibility that they might be used for prevention / reduction in infection rates [there was no prediction about the likelihood that it would, so it will be interesting to see the results of investigations in that direction.]

 

Stand upwind...

Julian

[Nearholmer]

13 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Bernard, who is getting a bit fed up of people taking the piss and not taking this problem seriously.

 

One possibility is that some people are simultaneously taking it seriously and taking the piss, the latter being a common way of relieving the tension induced by the former.

[Ohmisterporter]

As a matter of interest, it seems that many pharmaceutical companies in the world are working on an anti-virus: if one of them finds a cure will it be shared free gratis with all their rivals, or will one company be hoping for a bonanza payout?

[midlands]

7 minutes ago, Ohmisterporter said:

As a matter of interest, it seems that many pharmaceutical companies in the world are working on an anti-virus: if one of them finds a cure will it be shared free gratis with all their rivals, or will one company be hoping for a bonanza payout?

One would hope and pray that the results would be shared globally....without the huge bill hopefully..

[jjb1970]

7 hours ago, chris p bacon said:

 

I remember taking Larium as an anti malarial drug. I didn't get Malaria but the spiders coming out of your eyes and the blood dripping from the ceiling were unsettling.....

 

It has always been a difficult decision, the side effects of some of the effective anti-malaria drugs have often been nasty, but having witnessed a fellow crew member die from cerebral malaria on an offshore vessel in Equatorial Guinea I have a healthy respect for malaria. A disease that still kills large numbers year on year. Personally, I decided to play the odds and didn't take drugs.

[jcredfer]

1 minute ago, midlands said:

One would hope and pray that the results would be shared globally....without the huge bill hopefully..

 

I'm not aware of any such gratuitous magnificent philanthropy from "pharmaceutical companies", but would be encouraged by anyone who had examples of such {profit free} generosity on the scale of this current epidemic.

 

Julian

 

[Reorte]

10 minutes ago, jcredfer said:

 

I'm not aware of any such gratuitous magnificent philanthropy from "pharmaceutical companies", but would be encouraged by anyone who had examples of such {profit free} generosity on the scale of this current epidemic.

 

With a cynical hat on I'd imagine that the good PR that would result from doing so would be an incentive enough because it could well ultimately bring in more than it costs.

[Gibbo675]

28 minutes ago, Ohmisterporter said:

As a matter of interest, it seems that many pharmaceutical companies in the world are working on an anti-virus: if one of them finds a cure will it be shared free gratis with all their rivals, or will one company be hoping for a bonanza payout?

Hi Geoff,

 

Should the world's economy go bump then any money that might be paid may not be worth anything in the end.

 

Strange times, strange outcomes, who knows ?

 

Gibbo.

[PenrithBeacon]

Vaccine scientist: ‘Everything is so new in dealing with this coronavirus’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/coronavirus-vaccine-scientist-what-needs-to-be-done-now-hanneke-schuitemaker?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

Just for info, it doesn't offer certainty.

 

Cheers

[Baby Deltic]

 

[jcredfer]

52 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

With a cynical hat on I'd imagine that the good PR that would result from doing so would be an incentive enough because it could well ultimately bring in more than it costs.

 

USA mantra has the theory [well supported by history] - See a starving man by a lake and give him a fish, with some rice, is humane and his belly will benefit, but showing him how to make a rod and use bait, is a missed marketing opportunity.

 

I wait, with bated breath, the generosity of the rich drug companies, in contributing a cheap solution to the Cover-19, or the USA Gov't covering the costs.

 

Julian

 

[sharris]

One thing I've been wondering:

 

When UK deaths are announced those unfortunate people have usually been described as having 'an underlying condition'.

 

While guidelines list underlying conditions, it would be interesting to see the statistics of fatality and serious covid-19 morbidity for different underlying conditions.

 

It's a bit worrying that my parents (age about 80 - an underlying condition in its own right? and my dad with what I consider other underlying conditions) still do their own supermarket runs.

 

I wonder whether there's a sense of 'oh well, their underlying condition was probably worse than mine' keeping people from self-isolating for their own good. Would a breakdown of underlying condition statistics allow people to better understand their personal risks?

 

(on the other hand I have doubts about the general population's understanding of statistics, and it may lead to complacency instead)

[EddieB]

2 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Please explain what you find strange about it.

If less than 20k deaths is regarded by the government as a good outcome and you refer to a very much lower figure as grim then how would you describe this figure?

That seems to me to be a perfectly logical and reasonable question to ask.

Or are you frightened to get into a discussion and prefer to sit back and make snide comments?

Bernard, who is getting a bit fed up of people taking the piss and not taking this problem seriously.

 

The original post referred to the daily death toll exceeding one thousand for the first time.  

 

That is grim.

 

Yes, we are grateful that the UK figure is lower than projected.  But that’s one amongst many, and no cheer to the people of Italy, whose country makes up more than half of that “statistic “.  People here have friends and family out there, to say nothing of those for whom the rest are more than mere numbers.

 

Now desist, please.

[black and decker boy]

There is a graphic circulating showing Italy death rate 14days ago against current U.K. death rate.

 

they are a near as dammit the same.

 

i hope our curve deviates massively downwards from Italy over the next 14 days or we are going to be a very bad place.

 

and That Italy are still climbing the curve is simply unfathomable.

 

italy has been in lockdown 9 days in the north I think. we have seen large numbers of people strolling through parks, towns & seaside resorts today. Even if we lockdown this coming week, it’s likely we will continue to track their curve. The horse may now have bolted.

[LBRJ]

The graph of "cases" and "deaths" that I saw follow each other up the same squiggly exponential curve - which is hardly a surprise.

We are just in the short time between the two lines on the graph.

 

Thts not to make  light of it, or to take the piss or whatever grim stuff is written on here though

 

But the simple fact is quite a few people will die in the coming weeks (they do every week, this is just a big few more)

HMG's aim is to keep the number of deaths down as far as practicable without totally tanking the economy being  the price we pay.

[Joseph_Pestell]

26 minutes ago, sharris said:

One thing I've been wondering:

 

When UK deaths are announced those unfortunate people have usually been described as having 'an underlying condition'.

 

While guidelines list underlying conditions, it would be interesting to see the statistics of fatality and serious covid-19 morbidity for different underlying conditions.

 

It's a bit worrying that my parents (age about 80 - an underlying condition in its own right? and my dad with what I consider other underlying conditions) still do their own supermarket runs.

 

I wonder whether there's a sense of 'oh well, their underlying condition was probably worse than mine' keeping people from self-isolating for their own good. Would a breakdown of underlying condition statistics allow people to better understand their personal risks?

 

(on the other hand I have doubts about the general population's understanding of statistics, and it may lead to complacency instead)

 

In a somewhat different context, "one thousand deaths is a tragedy, one million deaths is a statistic". But still applicable.

 

There's quite a lot of statistical analysis being done at the moment but even professional statisticians struggle at a time like this. It will need calmer analysis after the event.

 

I agree that most of the population will not understand the stats anyway. That would be fine in itself if it were not for journalists causing a panic with false interpretation of statistics, not just in this situation but just about any news story.

[Joseph_Pestell]

2 hours ago, Ohmisterporter said:

As a matter of interest, it seems that many pharmaceutical companies in the world are working on an anti-virus: if one of them finds a cure will it be shared free gratis with all their rivals, or will one company be hoping for a bonanza payout?

 

Might depend which company it is.  But would be quite optimistic about this. After all, they want future customers.

[Reorte]

40 minutes ago, black and decker boy said:

There is a graphic circulating showing Italy death rate 14days ago against current U.K. death rate.

 

they are a near as dammit the same.

 

i hope our curve deviates massively downwards from Italy over the next 14 days or we are going to be a very bad place.

Well yes, we're bound to be the same at some point. That's not the same as saying the trajectory is the same. For example, to get from 1000 to 5000 cases was a little faster for Italy than it has been for the UK, although there'll be different biases on testing regimes that make that a problematic comparison. Deaths are easier to measure with certainty but are even more subject to noise.

 

I'm not trying to make light of it, we certainly shouldn't dismiss the possibility we are on the same trajectory but neither should we despair.

[LBRJ]

This is the sort of thing that really frightens me, far more than the Black Death would do.....

 

Lincolnshire's Police and Crime Commissioner

 

PCC Marc Jones said there were "hundreds of thousands of visitors".

 

'Arcades open'

Mr Jones said it was "time for everyone to be socially responsible or be made to be".

 

Now I am sure he meant well, but the last few words genuinely shocked me......

[The Johnster]

Reminds me a bit of the Grunwick dispute of the 80s, in which the Chief Constable of Essex explained on BBC news, with not a hint of awareness of irony, that he had closed every road in the area to preserve freedom of movement.  You can't make this stuff up...

[Sol]

Beaches are being closed in Australia as people are not taking notisce of the numbers  ( 500) allowed outside in public areas  or social distancing of 1.5m between people.

[peach james]

12 hours ago, chris p bacon said:

 

I remember taking Larium as an anti malarial drug. I didn't get Malaria but the spiders coming out of your eyes and the blood dripping from the ceiling were unsettling.....

Mine was with (not PB- that's the anti-nerve agent one...) Mefloquine,   That gives...interestingly vivid dreams...yes, we will call them that !

 

James