Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Nearholmer]

It’s very hard to judge what proportion of people are doing recklessly selfish things, or whether it’s any different from the proportion who do recklessly selfish things every day anyway, exceeding road speed limits being a simple example.

 

Thing is that the ‘sensible majority’ (I’m being optimistic) will always be invisible, and certainly won’t make newspaper front pages ...... too boring, and unlikely to excite anger and self-righteous outrage for that.

[Ron Ron Ron]

Sky news videos from the front line.....

 

https://news.sky.com/video/its-a-war-its-a-disaster-11961357
 

 

https://news.sky.com/video/coronavirus-italy-the-shocking-centre-of-the-covid-19-crisis-11960656

 

 

.

[Gwiwer]

Andy Y makes a valid point re. the weather.  

 

It is Mothering Sunday and one of those days when many families will want to be together and possibly at an outdoor venue.  There is evidence around here that visits are taking place.  The kids are out at play (in fairness they live in such close quarters anyway that the risk of infection may not be significantly higher) and a lot of people are out for a walk.  Taking the advice to enjoy fresh air and sun and - so far as possible - maintaining their distance.  

 

It is reconciling advice with practical reality which is the conflict here.  We are still being encouraged to go out and exercise.  We must still go out to shop and some of us must still go out to work.  Yes it is a lovely Spring day and one when many people would ordinarily be out and visiting tourist spots, cafes, pubs and restaurants.  Those may still be open for takeaway as things stand; many are.  The NT open coastal and countryside lands are extremely hard to physically close unlike their gardens.  Even when the countryside was closed during the Foot & Mouth outbreak there were few actual barriers to access, only signs.  

 

And there remains the British attitude of "put the kettle on and it will all be well" which seems to be alive and well.  I guess if you sit a couple of metres apart in the back garden and aren't in a high risk group then some people see that as OK.   Because it doesn't conflict with any current advice and actually follows some.  

 

We'll see what Boris or his people have to say a bit later.  

[96701]

I have been mainly attacking garden furniture with a brush and some preservative. Never entered my head to go anywhere..........

[PenrithBeacon]

So far I've spent my birthday in my pyjamas and haven't the slightest intention of being productive.

[maico]

17 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Please explain what you find strange about it.

If less than 20k deaths is regarded by the government as a good outcome and you refer to a very much lower figure as grim then how would you describe this figure?

That seems to me to be a perfectly logical and reasonable question to ask.

Or are you frightened to get into a discussion and prefer to sit back and make snide comments?

Bernard, who is getting a bit fed up of people taking the piss and not taking this problem seriously.

 

 

What's frightening is you can't read. My post was about 1000+ people dying in ONE day in the EU for the first time!

 

[Jub45565]

5 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

So far I've spent my birthday in my pyjamas and haven't the slightest intention of being productive.

 

Happy Birthday - however I hope you are heeding the relevant advice (stolen from facebook):

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Jub45565
correcting autocorrect

[Nearholmer]

13 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

"put the kettle on and it will all be well"

 

Yes, we need a new poster:

 

KEEP CALM and DON’T FFS CARRY ON

[Pacific231G]

2 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

 

I think the side effects would have to be properly analysed before using anti-malarial drugs widely. There are good reasons why doctors are careful in the advice provided to people visiting malarial zones. I made a decision not to take them and play the odds and made that decision in full awareness of the risks of malaria.  A disease that kills huge numbers. 

Indeed they would but as well as being an antimalarial, Hydroxychloroquine is also widely used to treat rheumatoid arthritis so its side effects are already well documented; these can be more serious in longer term use but apparently much lower than those for Chloroquine.

 

If you're interested you may find this interesting alongside the findings from Nice

https://academic.oup.com/jac/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jac/dkaa114/5810487

 

 

[Nearholmer]

Gwiwer’s point about potentially conflicting, or at least blooming difficult to adhere to, advice is very true.

 

Even those in SI as suspected plague-bearers like me and mine are advised to get our for fresh air and exercise (and sanity, where kids are involved!) provided a “safe distance” is maintained.

 

OK if you live in the middle of nowhere; actually needs a bit of care today when living at suburban density, as we discovered earlier, because ‘everyone and his two dogs’ is out in the sun; nigh-on b impossible for people living at urban density, I should imagine.

 

 

[John Harris]

Having seen the queues outside various supermarkets on the news, I wonder if those so eager to stock-up on toilet roll, sanitiser, bread, pasta, etc. have quite grasped that the scrum inside these stores is actually increasing their chances of catching the Covid-19 virus?

 

I fully expect stories in the next couple of weeks of dodgy looking characters knocking on doors offering said items at inflated prices, because surely they can't be planning on keeping these foodstuffs fresh enough to use themselves in the next six months?

 

JH

[Baby Deltic]

 

[jonny777]

27 minutes ago, John Harris said:

Having seen the queues outside various supermarkets on the news, I wonder if those so eager to stock-up on toilet roll, sanitiser, bread, pasta, etc. have quite grasped that the scrum inside these stores is actually increasing their chances of catching the Covid-19 virus?

 

I fully expect stories in the next couple of weeks of dodgy looking characters knocking on doors offering said items at inflated prices, because surely they can't be planning on keeping these foodstuffs fresh enough to use themselves in the next six months?

 

JH

 

 

They are not the only ones ignoring the advice of the PM. Don't visit your mother today, he seems to have pleaded.

 

1p.m. - large car parks outside my house and 4 adults get out and proceed to the elderly neighbours two doors down. Obviously some Mother's Day gathering which, virus or no virus, was going ahead come what may. 

 

 

[Dunsignalling]

5 hours ago, robert17649 said:

do they qualify for Darwin awards?

The survivors won't.

 

I've spent the day very pleasantly alone, mainly in the garden. Safely separated conversations took place over the garden fence with my neighbours on either side.

 

Spent a fair bit of the morning on several phone calls, including two of 30+ minute duration (one outgoing, one inward) with modelling chums.

 

Got the lawn mowed this afternoon and sorted out some odd bits of timber that were cluttering up the shed to turn into shelves and thereby tidy it up. Project for tomorrow or whenever we get our next nice day. Wherewithal for a little planned indoor DIY arrived from Amazon an hour ago.

 

I don't do social media, but the phone keeps me in touch just fine and, when I am out, I'm already starting to feel slightly nervous of face-to-face contact in case the distance suddenly decreases.  

 

We aren't all suddenly becoming marooned on individual desert islands and, whilst we are being asked to avoid close physical proximity, all other channels of communication remain open. Most of us are resilient and adaptable when push comes to shove. The vast majority will adjust OK to heightened levels of bio-security and some may even miss the additional "me-time" when all this is over.

 

The focus is currently, and understandably, on the primary threat presented by the virus itself. Later, it will become necessary to identify/support/treat the minority whose emotional make-up makes the precautions hard to deal with.

 

John

Edited March 22, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[Allegheny1600]

30 minutes ago, John Harris said:

Having seen the queues outside various supermarkets on the news, I wonder if those so eager to stock-up on toilet roll, sanitiser, bread, pasta, etc. have quite grasped that the scrum inside these stores is actually increasing their chances of catching the Covid-19 virus?

No chance!

That would require the ability to think clearly. . . . need I say more!?

[TheQ]

There have been lots of extra cars round here,  even a convoy of 4 small cars each carrying 4 or 5 late teens early twenty something's.  They turned round outside the house like many do,  they missed the "main" route to the beach.. 

My day,  in the garden / garage as I would have done anyway. 

Back to work tomorrow.. 

[Dunsignalling]

6 hours ago, Crisis Rail said:

 

Bit harsh calling them Blends.  It’s not as if thousands have all been in touch and said “let’s all meet up at Llanberis”

 

Wrong but yet another one for the learning curve. 

Collective stupidity doesn't require organisation.

 

Lots of people coming up with the same daft idea independently doesn't exclude any of them from membership of the ancient order of bell-ends. 

 

John

[The Johnster]

4 hours ago, Pacific231G said:

This is a difficult one. I do try to get in a daily walk of two or three miles and, though I live in London, am surrounded by enough mainly empty green space to do so without being closer than two metres to other people and that only ocassionally.  I could stay in the house and increase my risk of obesity, diabetes, poor immune system etc. or I could go out but do so with an informed awareness of risk. The answer is probably to look for  quieter places to walk than the usual beauty spots.

I'd say that a short stroll around you local park, keeping yourself to yourself as much as you can, to avoid going stir crazy is not stupid.  But getting in your car and driving a distance to another location when the thrust of the efforts to contain and delay the disease, which depend on your not travelling unless it is necessary, and mixing with large numbers of others when you get there whether or not you planned this, is pretty stupid; you are putting yourself and other stupid grockles as well as locals at increased risk in communities that are unable to absorb the extra risk.  Of course, you know (or believe, or want to believe) that you are healthy, but the government has to take matters in a more holistic way, the origin of 20k dead being a good outcome when it is in fact a very bad outcome for those 20k.

 

The answer is not to look for quieter places; all the other Darwin award contenders will be doing the same; it makes as much sense as the bloke I spoke to in the supermarket last Sunday who had 4 packs of spaghetti in his basket, and told me that it was the 5th supermarket he'd driven to in the city to get them.  So he'd potentially infected people, or exposed himself to potential infection, in 4 other supermarkets; this is classic Darwin awardian behaviour.  

 

Remember the fuel shortages in the 80s?  There was a feature on Nationwide about a couple of old dears, sisters, who were doing their bit to save the nation's fuel; one lived in Leeds and one in Norwich or somewhere and they were in the habit of driving to visit each other on alternate Sundays.  Their contribution was to meet half way in Nottingham every Sunday.  This didn't even save them any fuel, bless...

 

Self Isolation means staying at home as much as you can, and certainly within your local area; large numbers of people moving about will make the situation much worse.  I wonder how many people in the Pen y Gwyryd or Malham car parks thought everybody else was being stupid...

[The Johnster]

1 hour ago, PenrithBeacon said:

So far I've spent my birthday in my pyjamas and haven't the slightest intention of being productive.

You've just described my entire lifestyle.

[Dunsignalling]

Call me cynical, but I don't for one moment believe that the world, free and otherwise, is going to turn economic life on its head and print funny money that's going to take generations to work its way out of the system without extreme cause. Certainly not in order to fight anything from which the UK's "share" of fatalities is "only" expected to be 20,000, many of which could be expected to occur within a year or two from the "underlying causes" without any help from the virus.

 

My gut feeling is that what's really exercising the minds of leaders across the world is the possibility of losing two percent or more of their entire populations.

 

I also consider that their remarkably parallel reactions point to Covid-19 being anything but an entirely unknown quantity that's only existed since January, as we have been told.

 

John

 

 

 

  

Edited March 22, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[Rowsley17D]

I think most of the population of North West England have decided that the Forest of Bowland is a good place to visit. I've never seen so many cars and motor bikes and bikes drive passed the Rectory in our sleepy and elderly populated village even on the sunniest of Bank Holidays.

[midlands]

This is quite interesting, I followed a link posted earlier to some guvmint disaster guide and read this, thought I'd post it here and get your opinions on what it means..very mysterious as I am an "At risk" citizen. I'm very curious as to what they are going to tell me, or even are they actually going to contact each and every at risk person.

 

"If you're at high risk

The NHS will contact you from Monday 23 March 2020 if you are at particularly high risk of getting seriously ill with coronavirus. You'll be given specific advice about what to do.

Do not contact your GP or healthcare team at this stage – wait to be contacted."

 

ref link

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

[Dunsignalling]

2 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

It’s a lovely sunny day here on the English south coast.

With no plans to leave home over the weekend, or the next few days, like yesterday I’ve been out in the garden busying myself with jobs.

I could hear the occasional sound of similar gardening and DIY activity from of my nearby neighbour’s gardens, otherwise it has been quite tranquil.

When I sat down on a wall for a break and cuppa, late morning, I noticed the sound of cars passing by on the nearby lane and the distant sound of traffic, up on the main road, a quarter of a mile away.

It did seem to me that there were a lot of cars out and about, considering we have all been advised to minimise our excursions beyond the garden gate, or front door.

Where were all these people going, considering shop closures and the suspension of sporting activities and suchlike ?

No doubt a fair proportion of those cars are carrying people who are completely ignoring the advice to suspend social contact and are visiting family and friends, or heading for popular parks, beaches and beauty spots.

 

Do these people not realise that in Spain and Italy, you currently need to provide proof and documentation to go outside of your property, for anything other than a trip to the supermarket or chemist?

Do they not know that Germany and France are heading towards a similar tightening of there already more strict advice and restrictions.

Do they not know, that if it all goes t*ts up here, there will have to be similar restrictions imposed here and to them?

 

The penny simple isn’t dropping, or dropping far enough.

 

 

.

Or is it a manifestation of "Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die" perhaps?

 

John

[black and decker boy]

21 minutes ago, midlands said:

This is quite interesting, I followed a link posted earlier to some guvmint disaster guide and read this, thought I'd post it here and get your opinions on what it means..very mysterious as I am an "At risk" citizen. I'm very curious as to what they are going to tell me, or even are they actually going to contact each and every at risk person.

 

"If you're at high risk

The NHS will contact you from Monday 23 March 2020 if you are at particularly high risk of getting seriously ill with coronavirus. You'll be given specific advice about what to do.

Do not contact your GP or healthcare team at this stage – wait to be contacted."

 

ref link

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

Quite easy to do as all GPs know who has what illnesses and relevant contact details.

 

They've said contact will be letter or text.

 

At least from this, there will be no doubt if you are in the most vulnerable category. If People so notified opt to ignore the advice then they and their family cant say they were not warned when refused treatment under the emergency triage protocols to only treat those who can survive.

 

im expecting a letter. I’ll definitely be in waiting as the furthest I’m travelling is the 30ft to the end of my garden.

Edited March 22, 2020 by black and decker boy
Typo

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

Later, it will become necessary to identify/support/treat the minority whose emotional make-up makes the precautions hard to deal with.

Indeed. See my comments earlier about a vast number people suffering mentally, and the longer-term affects of that.

 

Regarding the mass exodus to the countryside, beaches, parks etc: I don’t think I’ve ever seen our local ‘green spaces’ so busy, and given that I’m a heavy user of the same as I go cycling a lot, I think would have spotted it.  
 

These are the people displaced from pubs, cinemas, shopping centres, restaurants, bowling alleys, gyms, swimming pools etc etc, and there are a lot of them! But, on the positive side, even at <2m apart, in a stiff NE breeze they are less likely to be sharing virus than if they’d all carried-on doing the usual.

 

They might not be as distant as is ideal, but they are a lot more distant than they all were a week ago.