Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Dunsignalling]

8 hours ago, sharris said:

One thing I've been wondering:

 

When UK deaths are announced those unfortunate people have usually been described as having 'an underlying condition'.

 

While guidelines list underlying conditions, it would be interesting to see the statistics of fatality and serious covid-19 morbidity for different underlying conditions.

 

It's a bit worrying that my parents (age about 80 - an underlying condition in its own right? and my dad with what I consider other underlying conditions) still do their own supermarket runs.

 

I wonder whether there's a sense of 'oh well, their underlying condition was probably worse than mine' keeping people from self-isolating for their own good. Would a breakdown of underlying condition statistics allow people to better understand their personal risks?

 

(on the other hand I have doubts about the general population's understanding of statistics, and it may lead to complacency instead)

I think many in that age group prioritise the quality of their remaining lifespan over its duration anyway.

 

My mother, 91 and with all marbles present and correct (inasmuch as they have ever been), has concluded that she could go tomorrow with or without catching the virus, and I suspect this judgment to be fairly widespread.

 

My stepfather (86) seems rather more circumspect and, as he's the chauffeur, that is having some effect. Between them, they are pretty organised and have enough in the freezer to last a month or two with just a need for fresh stuff to be replenished.  Hopefully, I have persuaded them that I should perform that function for now. Not sure how mum will react to me placing the shopping in the porch and passing the time of day from 2m outside though....

 

They normally go out to senior citizens lunches and play cards twice a week, and I'm equally or more concerned about the effect of their social routine disappearing. 

 

John

 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[Nearholmer]

7 hours ago, LBRJ said:

Mr Jones said it was "time for everyone to be socially responsible or be made to be".

That implication has been behind numerous things said by the PM this week, and I think that the powers are in place to allow compulsion.

 

Next logical steps would be one or two very public examples to make the point, which I’m sure I’d what Bondi was.

 

Looks like troops might be deployed in humanitarian roles shortly, and that is good for implanting an idea in the public mind too: “troops on the streets”generally implies curtailment of liberty.

 

Is the current huge curtailment of liberty justified by the benefits it brings?

 

Our elected representatives have decided it is; the elected representatives in every other country have decided it is.

 

 

 

 

[Bernard Lamb]

8 hours ago, EddieB said:

The original post referred to the daily death toll exceeding one thousand for the first time.  

 

That is grim.

 

Yes, we are grateful that the UK figure is lower than projected.  But that’s one amongst many, and no cheer to the people of Italy, whose country makes up more than half of that “statistic “.  People here have friends and family out there, to say nothing of those for whom the rest are more than mere numbers.

 

Now desist, please.

Just look at the photos of people in Richmond Park, Victoria Park and some places on the East Coast from yesterday.

The government spokesperson describes them as putting peoples lives at risk. he also describes less than 20k deaths in the UK as a good outcome.

Desist from following and promoting government advice?

Get real.

Bernard

[SHMD]

10 hours ago, Ohmisterporter said:

As a matter of interest, it seems that many pharmaceutical companies in the world are working on an anti-virus: if one of them finds a cure will it be shared free gratis with all their rivals, or will one company be hoping for a bonanza pay-out?

 

"..one company be hoping for a bonanza payout?"

Absolutely. Why shouldn't they? This system of commerce ensures that 'a need' is quickly fulfilled, in this case protecting humanity - even if it is for a (probable) handsome dividend.

 

"if one of them finds a cure will it be shared.."

There already is a method of vastly increasing production, whilst ensuring quality and allowing other companies to 'get on the band wagon' - it's called 'producing under licensing'.

 

 

Otherwise - why should/would they bother next time?

 

 

Kev.

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

It took 3 months to reach 100,000 cases (worldwide).

It took just 12 days for the next 100,000 cases.

It has taken just 4 days to reach 300,000.

 

 

 

[Neil]

It seems that there's no national shortage of bell ends; what else explains the mass gatherings at tourist hotspots like Snowden and Malham. It's as though there's some sort of mass denial going on. A mate of mine phoned up last night; he questioned why we were isolating, thought that it should be largely over in four weeks, thought it was all a bit overblown and I'm not sure if he grasped the concept that as well as keeping yourself safe you keep from infecting others. Oh and he's an asthmatic and overweight.

[Crisis Rail]

6 minutes ago, Neil said:

It seems that there's no national shortage of bell ends; what else explains the mass gatherings at tourist hotspots like Snowden and Malham. It's as though there's some sort of mass denial going on. A mate of mine phoned up last night; he questioned why we were isolating, thought that it should be largely over in four weeks, thought it was all a bit overblown and I'm not sure if he grasped the concept that as well as keeping yourself safe you keep from infecting others. Oh and he's an asthmatic and overweight.

 

Bit harsh calling them Blends.  It’s not as if thousands have all been in touch and said “let’s all meet up at Llanberis”

 

Wrong but yet another one for the learning curve. 

[SHMD]

22 minutes ago, Neil said:

It seems that there's no national shortage of bell ends; what else explains the mass gatherings at tourist hotspots like Snowden and Malham. It's as though there's some sort of mass denial going on. A mate of mine phoned up last night; he questioned why we were isolating, thought that it should be largely over in four weeks, thought it was all a bit overblown and I'm not sure if he grasped the concept that as well as keeping yourself safe you keep from infecting others. Oh and he's an asthmatic and overweight.

 

...just another example of us thinking we are all individuals - with free will - when in actual fact we are a herd.

 

 

"Hey petunia. Let's go and visit 'such and such'? It's in the middle of nowhere so we will still be social distancing wont we?"!

 

 

Kev.

 

[Reorte]

2 minutes ago, SHMD said:

 

...just another example of us thinking we are all individuals - with free will - when in actual fact we are a herd.

 

 

"Hey petunia. Let's go and visit 'such and such'? It's in the middle of nowhere so we will still be social distancing wont we?"!

And usually that would be an entirely sensible approach - get a bit of fresh air and exercise in an environment where  you'll only be passing people briefly at most. It's not really herd behaviour if a lot of people happen to reach the same conclusion independently.

[gordon s]

One of our favourite places for walking our dogs. Even hundreds of acres of beach and fields is not enough for social distancing. The possible risk to the local community with hundreds of cars descending on them is just too much.

 

A side effect of schools being closed and self isolation means that people are getting out for a walk. Even our local woods were really busy yesterday. Not only the usual dog walkers, but probably people trying to avoid going stir crazy.....

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by gordon s

[Nearholmer]

Denial is always the first stage in learning to live with something you don’t like. And some people take ‘forever’ to get past it.

 

Just right now it happens to be dangerous.

 

The mental health impact of this virus is going to be enormous ...... given that there is barely any ‘emotional support’ for many, almost the entire population of the world will have PTSD if we aren’t careful, and that’s dangerous in itself.

 

This thread probably fits into the ‘bargaining’ phase for many of us, hence the obsession with numbers, which goes with ‘struggling to find meaning’.

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Rugd1022]

I read elsewhere last night about a bunch of kids filming themselves coughing over the fruit and veg in a supermarket and uploading it into youtube, and my other half just told me of a Hermes delivery driver being filmed (without his knowledge) doing the same to a package he was about to drop off..... the mind boggles, it really does.

 

Being in the 'key worker'/ 'reserved occupation' category I'm being as careful as possible, as are all my railway colleagues..... stay safe and clean folks . 

[jjb1970]

People tend to react according to what government wants when facing an existential crisis. Such as possible Nazi invasion. 

 

Most people do not see this as an existential crisis and  perhaps in some cases it is because they do understand the statistics. If the government worst case of 250,000 deaths was to hit us then that means approx 66,500,000 people would not die. Which clearly indicates that for the vast majority it is not an existential crisis. 

 

Rather than index fatalities to age it might be more effective to index fatalities to underlying medical conditions which are not age dependent. That may make more younger people think about things. 

 

[boxbrownie]

10 hours ago, sharris said:

It's a bit worrying that my parents (age about 80 - an underlying condition in its own right? and my dad with what I consider other underlying conditions) still do their own supermarket runs.

 

 

(on the other hand I have doubts about the general population's understanding of statistics, and it may lead to complacency instead)

I think you have proved that, or your parents have!

 

Please try and persuade them otherwise.

[AY Mod]

1 hour ago, gordon s said:

The possible risk to the local community with hundreds of cars descending on them is just too much.

 

It's unfortunate that the weather has been more pleasant this weekend hence the hordes gravitating towards the more attractive places around; where's a miserable windy and wet weekend when it would be most useful?

[Gibbo675]

8 hours ago, The Johnster said:

Reminds me a bit of the Grunwick dispute of the 80s, in which the Chief Constable of Essex explained on BBC news, with not a hint of awareness of irony, that he had closed every road in the area to preserve freedom of movement.  You can't make this stuff up...

Hi Johnster,

 

Eric Blair once put it like this, "War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength."

 

That so many people fall for this NLP inversion of society is staggering and it seems rather unfortunate that the novel 1984 is currently being used by society as an instruction manual, worse still that it has succeeded in shaping the current norm.

 

This is the reason that we must be careful of what we say for he also said, "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."

 

Gibbo.

[boxbrownie]

1 hour ago, Neil said:

It seems that there's no national shortage of bell ends; what else explains the mass gatherings at tourist hotspots like Snowden and Malham. It's as though there's some sort of mass denial going on. A mate of mine phoned up last night; he questioned why we were isolating, thought that it should be largely over in four weeks, thought it was all a bit overblown and I'm not sure if he grasped the concept that as well as keeping yourself safe you keep from infecting others. Oh and he's an asthmatic and overweight.

You think that’s bad, my 93 year old Mum has a retired district nurse come in every two months to tend to her feet/nails.....guess what......on Friday she turned up, when I told her we were self isolating she looked at us and said but I came all this way (10 miles approx) and looked most indignant when I said I didn’t want her coming in even though she said she was fine.......luckily at exactly the same time the local chemist delivery service turned up with all our medication complete in gloves, mask and plastic over coat/shroud........it took a while before the nurse realised I was serious.

 

A recently retired nurse......

[TheSignalEngineer]

1 hour ago, Neil said:

It seems that there's no national shortage of bell ends; what else explains the mass gatherings at tourist hotspots like Snowden and Malham. It's as though there's some sort of mass denial going on. A mate of mine phoned up last night; he questioned why we were isolating, thought that it should be largely over in four weeks, thought it was all a bit overblown and I'm not sure if he grasped the concept that as well as keeping yourself safe you keep from infecting others. Oh and he's an asthmatic and overweight.

Parts of the Peak District were the same yesterday. Pictures of deserted streets in Manchester City Centre but my usual cycle run where I rarely see more that three people was as busy as a bank holiday

[Reorte]

7 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

It's unfortunate that the weather has been more pleasant this weekend hence the hordes gravitating towards the more attractive places around; where's a miserable windy and wet weekend when it would be most useful?

 

Well at least it's given me a chance to get my greenhouse cleaned out!

[Nearholmer]

jjb

 

It has struck me that it might be more attention-grabbing to talk about raw numbers, because of the way the population age bell-curve work. So, very roughly:

 

- c18% of the population is >64yo, so at 8% mortality that would be 0.18x67Mx0.08x0.6**= c580 000

 

- c66% of the population is 64<15yo, so at 0.5% mortality that would be 0.66x67Mx0.005x0.6** = c130 000

 

-c16% of the population is <15yo, so at 0.02% mortality that would be 0.16x67Mx0.002x0.6**=c10 000

 

So, saying that about a sixth of those who might die in an unconstrained epidemic would be ‘young’ has a harder-hitting feel.

 

These numbers sum up to c720 000, or c1.07% of the population, which is eerily close to the 1% that HMG keeps talking about, and explains why they say that with social-distancing it can be kept "well below 1%", and why they say that "at 20 000 deaths we would have done very well".

 

**Amended to assume that 60% of the population contract the disease.

 

Edited to include <15yo, to change emphasis of wording slightly, and to sum-up.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Liam]

10 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

It's unfortunate that the weather has been more pleasant this weekend hence the hordes gravitating towards the more attractive places around; where's a miserable windy and wet weekend when it would be most useful?

 

And people gathering in isolated areas in mass also damages the opportunity that better weather brings; a slower rate of infection. If the weather was good and people did not gather in large groups then there could be a chance of a decrease in the number of infections. 

[robert17649]

4 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

thanks for that as one of the 18% I just love encouraging figures

 

it has struck me that it might be more impactful to talk about raw numbers, because of the way the population age bell-curve works:

 

- c18% of the population is >64yo, so at 8% mortality that would be 0.18x67Mx0.08= c960 000

 

- c66% of the poplulation 64<15yo, so at 0.5% mortality that would be 0.66x67Mx0.005 = c220 000

 

So, saying that about a fifth of those who might die are ‘young’ has a harder-hitting feel.

 

 

 

[Neil]

1 hour ago, Crisis Rail said:

 

Bit harsh calling them Blends.  It’s not as if thousands have all been in touch and said “let’s all meet up at Llanberis”

 

Wrong but yet another one for the learning curve. 

 

No I don't think I'm being harsh. One key denominator of bell-endery is an inability to think for oneself , another would be an inability to think of others, I could go on far further but I don't think I need to do that to make the argument.

[robert17649]

do they qualify for Darwin awards?

[AY Mod]

17 minutes ago, Gibbo675 said:

That so many people fall for this NLP inversion of society is staggering and it seems rather unfortunate that the novel 1984 is currently being used by society as an instruction manual, worse still that it has succeeded in shaping the current norm.

 

Please can we leave utter bullocks out of this?