Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[57xx]

2 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

Umm. My calculator says that 759 deaths in 67 million people is about 11 per million. 

 

It still doesn't make it a particularly valid statistic though.

[57xx]

1 hour ago, boxbrownie said:

On our local FB pages the holiday home renters and camp/holiday sites have been putting out warnings about holidays are all cancelled (and they are happy to give the same terms timings next year in exchange) and they have been getting real grief and quite nasty reactions from emmets that are still intent on coming down, it’s unbelievable as you say that people still want to come for a holiday.

 

 

Non of my guests can get to my house, their flights are all cancelled. One was mid-stay and had to get the last emergency flight out of Orlando last weekend or be stuck there for the long term. All have been very good about it (albeit disappointed).

[woodenhead]

25 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

You can piece together the figures quite easily from official statements that have been made.

You can but you have to do it, each day there is a release of new infections and new deaths but not what percentage of capacity has been reached.

 

Maybe people worry about death statistics but would panic if aware the NHS had exceeded it's capacity to be safe.

[57xx]

3 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

 

And social media gives everyone the power to do that!

 

 

 

Absolutely and there will then always be a sucker who believes it. For some examples of some of the more ridiculous claims, see this.

 

[Nearholmer]

But, it doesn’t deprive any of us our critical faculties: a person who can spot BS, paranoia, etc in others IRL can spot it on line; a gullible person IRL is a gullible person on-line.

 

Calling it out strikes me as fine too, provided that it is proportionate ....... if we all know Biggins is obsessed by little green men from Venus, what’s the point of calling it loudly every time?

 

Nearly everyone on RMWeb has a strong opinion about all or some of the media ...... it almost helps to hear the paranoias, because then we each know where the other is coming from.

 

(I loath the Daily Mail and American right-wing news media, for what it’s worth)

[Neil]

Gtech told not to produce ventilators. I would be interested to know the logic behind this.

[57xx]

17 hours ago, 'CHARD said:

 

I think the nuance to this is the impact of something happening to you in a remote location.  Not only are you more at risk of a road accident the further you go, but any response from medics out in the wilds is stretching their scarce resource unnecessarily. 

 

Exactly. My best mate was out cycling in the Amber Valley 10 years ago this month. Mid ride, he suffered a heart attack and the only way to get him out of there in time to save him once the two paramedics who attended had triaged him, was air ambulance. Whilst people might think "it'll never happen to me", it does and it will waste resources currently needed elsewhere. People are just being selfish and looking for loopholes without understanding the real consequences.

Edited March 28, 2020 by 57xx
bad typing

[Gwiwer]

Current situation as I have it from personal observation, family and reliable friends:-

 

The A30 into and through Cornwall has several road-blocks and anyone not having a valid reason to be on the road is subject to a fine - and at the very least an instruction to go home.  In a rural area some leeway is given to those whose essential trips require slightly longer distance travel such as farmers attending livestock and those whose nearest shop (or nearest which might offer a range wider than the daily paper and instant soup) might be up to 10 miles away.

 

Random stop-and-ask is in place in towns across Cornwall.  More than two people together, unless able to satisfy the Plod they are sharing the same accommodation, are being required to disperse and go on their way.  

 

More police have been seen in Cornwall than at any time in living memory.  Questions are being asked as to where they have come from (given this is a nationwide emergency) and why they have been unable, or extremely slow, to deal with more routine matters such as burglary and violence for many months past.  

 

BTP officers are patrolling trains and railway stations randomly in the London area and their presence has so far been enough to ensure compliance where ever possible.  There remains a few early morning trains which are quite well loaded simply because many key workers are on shift-change at much the same time.  A reduced service will always lead to heavier loadings on what remains and the TOCs (also hopefully TfL) are aware of the need to protect the early morning service when they go onto further-reduced timetables based on the Sunday service from Monday morning.  

 

Many London buses will adopt Sunday headways from Monday but again with the early morning service protected.  Night buses continue to run because it is known that they are used by health service workers, cleaners and some other key workers to get to and from their places of employment.  The last thing needed right now is to restrict the movement of people critical to the recovery effort.  

 

My opinion on drone surveillance - for any reason - would probably have me self-isolated from this place for some time.  Put politely it's a case of "just because we can doesn't always make it right" 

[Ohmisterporter]

17 minutes ago, Neil said:

Gtech told not to produce ventilators. I would be interested to know the logic behind this.

 

I would like to know the reasoning behind this. Strange that at the same time there is an order for 10,000 to Dyson. G-tech manufacture in the UK, Dyson in the Far East. And POTUS saying that when he spoke to the PM the subject of more ventilators needed urgently was discussed.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Ohmisterporter

[Baby Deltic]

36 minutes ago, 57xx said:

 

It still doesn't make it a particularly valid statistic though.

The problem is the demographic. Is the higher percentage old timers, middle age'rs or youngsters? Then the death toll percentages can be a lot higher for that given group as a percentage.

[Jonboy]

13 minutes ago, Neil said:

Gtech told not to produce ventilators. I would be interested to know the logic behind this.

Based on the response at my wife’s workplace and competitors , who make them full time, to adapt and work with other big production names (Some companies have advertised their taking part, others haven’t) for expanding the production of designs that are already certified, tested to normal standards and operate in a way that hospital staff are familiar with, I would guess the NHS may have decided it can meet the targets without an unknown machine in the mix.

 

( Dyson may of course have been given the same curtailment but not advertised it).

[Dunsignalling]

3 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

Umm. My calculator says that 759 deaths in 67 million people is about 11 per million. 

But fortunately for them/us/me, a relatively tiny proportion of the 67 million have yet been infected by the virus. 

 

If left unchecked, with fatalities doubling every three days or so, the UK could be virtually uninhabited by this time next year by my reckoning.

 

Numbers can be as scary or as reassuring as we want to make them. The only one that really matters is reducing the death rate as a proportion of the total numbers infected. Unfortunately, quantifying deaths and attributing cause is the easy bit and that statistic only plots fatalities against the known rate of infection.

 

The extremely low level of testing in the UK (up to now) means that any accurate calculation of the overall infection rate is, at best, several months away. The authorities seem to think it likely that many will have recovered from the virus without even knowing they had it. Therefore, the full picture can only emerge once we have all been tested.

 

John

Edited March 28, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[stewartingram]

My SiL is classed as vulnerable. She had a successful cancer op last year, and is retired, also she lost hubby through a tragic work accident 10 years ago. She has 3 grown up kids. The daughter lives elsewhere, but comes back regularly to look after her (daughter’s) horse (often with protests though); I believe she is now moving in temporarily to help out. The twin boys are however in a bit of a situation. Mid-20s, they seem to me to be, shall we say, immature in their outlook, too scared to stand up for themselves.

They left school, and the neighbour, who has a business literally next door, gave them both a job; something to do with agriculture and making things I believe. So they have no real training, just getting on with it. I’m not even sure they have a proper contract of employment? He takes advantage of them, they have to work long hours, and are frequently sent long distance (no pay for when travelling, they have to be on site at normal start & finish time). He even sends them abroad,  such as Canada or USA, for a week or two. No job permits for over there either, they have to carry parts in their luggage to get the bits through. They won't stand up for themselves either, as 1 or 2 of the other workers have refused to go, so the twins get sent instead. Now the others have refused to come in to work with Covid-19 about, so the twins are being told they still have to work; even been sent to Yorks this week. Of cause, boss has sent his daughter (from the office) home! How do we get the message through to some people?

Meanwhile, SiL, who is a born worrier, needs their support. She is in tears most days, you wouldn’t believe the number of phone calls we get from her each day.

 

Stewart

 

edit to add:  I forgot to mention that the twins are both asthma sufferers too, so I believe that puts them at more risk, as well as them bringing it home to their mother.

Edited March 28, 2020 by stewartingram
missing info

[AY Mod]

39 minutes ago, Neil said:

Gtech told not to produce ventilators. I would be interested to know the logic behind this.

 

The same applies to MEC Medical who have proven experience in the field. Maybe it's to do with the capacity to test and approve the products? It seems as though Dyson and JCB are favourites, a bit of research shows why they may be 'favoured'.

 

I'm trying not to be speculative but suggest that with a little research people can form an opinion in the absence of anyone telling us "why?".

[Reorte]

20 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

If left unchecked, with fatalities doubling every three days or so, the UK could be virtually uninhabited by this time next year by my reckoning.

 

That demonstrates a danger of taking extrapolation too far - if left unchecked the death rate will be pretty terrible but certainly nowhere near enough to leave the UK virtually uninhabited since the majority of people recover with no need for medical aid.

[jjb1970]

Numbers are hugely informative, but to really give meaningful information we need a lot more granularity than a running total. 

 

It is pretty clear that the seriousness of COVID is linked to underlying health conditions and age. So figures broken down by health condition and age would be very informative.

 

Importantly, separating deaths of people with COVID from deaths caused by COVID. That is linked to the underlying health condition question and probably needs some professional judgement. If a terminally ill patient dies slightly earlier as a result of COVID complications you could argue it is a COVID induced death and equally also argue that actually it was a death of someone with COVID rather than caused by COVID.

 

Also, it'd be interesting to see all the bodies referring to models put these in the public domain in an easy to find way so people could consider the models. We know that Imperial and Oxford appear to have two completely different models, I'm guessing there are lots more out there. Which ones are good? They'll all rely on assumptions and the quality of input data but it might be interesting if people could see them. 

 

This document was published by WHO and is interesting, it is slightly old but so far it still appears to be well found:

 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

 

This document from the Italian National Institute of Health is also interesting, unfortunately it is Italian but you can google translate the key words in the data tables:

 

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf

[Dunsignalling]

53 minutes ago, Gwiwer said:

 

 

My opinion on drone surveillance - for any reason - would probably have me self-isolated from this place for some time.  Put politely it's a case of "just because we can doesn't always make it right" 

 

 

TBH, I don't really see any moral difference between cameras on drones and traffic cameras or CCTV in general.

 

They're just not tethered to posts and are therefore more capable of detecting those savvy enough to exploit blind spots or gaps in the fixed network.

 

OK, drones do have a greater ability to track specific individuals, but any questions as to the morality (or need) of that must be laid at the door of those authorising such use. The technology itself cannot be uninvented.

 

John

Edited March 28, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[Dunsignalling]

13 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

That demonstrates a danger of taking extrapolation too far - if left unchecked the death rate will be pretty terrible but certainly nowhere near enough to leave the UK virtually uninhabited since the majority of people recover with no need for medical aid.

Exactly my point. 

 

Calculating the mortality percentage against the total (mostly unendangered) population is equally misleading.

 

John

Edited March 28, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[Joseph_Pestell]

1 hour ago, Neil said:

Gtech told not to produce ventilators. I would be interested to know the logic behind this.

 

You want logic (aka joined-up thinking) from Govt!

 

My advice to GTECH would be to carry on. Their simple design will be needed elsewhere in the world.

 

But there will be fallout from this when we all have more time for reflection. 10 days ago, manufacturers were clearly told that Govt would buy as many ventilators as they could produce. Now, Govt only want to buy from two manufacturers. 

[Dunsignalling]

4 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

You want logic (aka joined-up thinking) from Govt!

 

My advice to GTECH would be to carry on. Their simple design will be needed elsewhere in the world.

 

But there will be fallout from this when we all have more time for reflection. 10 days ago, manufacturers were clearly told that Govt would buy as many ventilators as they could produce. Now, Govt only want to buy from two manufacturers. 

Agreed, where might we be today had R.J. Mitchell taken (the first) "no" for an answer in the mid-late thirties.

 

John 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[Jonboy]

As an aside the Dyson order is only valid IF their design gets clinical certification, no certificate, no order.

 

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-26/the-ventilators-the-nhs-needs-going-into-mass-production-and-dyson-isn-t-involved/

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Jonboy

[jjb1970]

Industry coming together to produce an existing tried and tested design seems a pretty sensible answer. It's what happened in the war with manufacture of standardised designs being distributed across industry.

[robert17649]

14 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

Industry coming together to produce an existing tried and tested design seems a pretty sensible answer. It's what happened in the war with manufacture of standardised designs being distributed across industry.

mostly.

 

The tried and tested approach has several advantages.

 

No actual design stage components ready made etc etc.

 

Nothing to stop Gtech unless govt thinks their manufacturing base can be used for components and "commandeers" their facility.

[Metr0Land]

1 hour ago, jjb1970 said:

Also, it'd be interesting to see all the bodies referring to models put these in the public domain in an easy to find way so people could consider the models. We know that Imperial and Oxford appear to have two completely different models, I'm guessing there are lots more out there. Which ones are good? They'll all rely on assumptions and the quality of input data but it might be interesting if people could see them. 

 

 

 

I too think they should be more open with the models.

 

AIUI ever since SARS, a lot of modelling has been done, and planning for a pandemic has been going on in the background.  The trouble is (AFAIK) there's not a lot of history of real pandemics.  We've all heard of the post WW1 Spanish flu and some data exists (I say some, as it seems they didn't keep records as detailed as we do now).  Also we had SARS in the early 2000's with panic projections of '20,000 deaths predicted by Medical Officer of Health' and yet we only had a few dozen SARS deaths in the UK.

 

So far as I can see the models in use have to take a punt on the rate of infection and CV19 is way higher then anything developed nations have ever planned or praticed for.  Early numbers coming from China were treated with suspicion and it was only when we started getting hard data from Italy which showed the rate of infection in a European country with a good health care system, that the penny dropped that this really is hugely faster at infecting people than anything previously imagined.

 

I think it was around 11Mar (was it really only just over 2 weeks ago) that we started to move from the idea of herd immunity to preparing people for lockdown.  Although 'open source' models would lead to more debate (lies, damned lies and you know the rest....) I think that ultimately they would be more use than hinderance.

[Nearholmer]

20 minutes ago, Metr0Land said:

Although 'open source' models would lead to more debate (lies, damned lies and you know the rest....) I think that ultimately they would be more use than hinderance.

Agree.

 

A vanilla model or two, based on slightly different curve-forms (most epidemiologists seem to use a logistic curve, but some slightly different curves), with all variables configurable, plus a couple of curve-fitting tools based on different methods, to allow testing from accumulated real data, would surely be possible .......... in fact I’d assume they exist and are shared between specialists already.

 

Even open sharing of the settings chosen for variables, along with an explanation of the thinking, would be educational.

 

But, maybe the specialist modellers concerned have better things to do at the moment than to open-source their models and assumptions and fend-off the firestorm of debate that would inevitably cause ....... can you imagine trying to debate this sort of stuff sanely, in public, with for instance Christian fundamentalists?