Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Oldddudders]

Then there are the aerospace manufacturers, who now see their precious order books worth not much more than the virtual paper they are printed on. And a whole sea of support industries, one close to me, suddenly without work or purpose. 

[robert17649]

2 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Then there are the aerospace manufacturers, who now see their precious order books worth not much more than the virtual paper they are printed on. And a whole sea of support industries, one close to me, suddenly without work or purpose. 

that is the problem with back to normal, theres no progress

[57xx]

9 hours ago, Rowsley17D said:

The "stay at home" message seem to be getting through. No sign of cyclists or noise of motorbikes in Bowland this morning.

 

Meanwhile in Derby...

[robert17649]

rather like the numpties who drive in crap conditions with no lights. they can see perfectly well

[Ron Ron Ron]

3 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Very few airlines own planes. They lease them. So (as usual) the key players will be the bean-counters at the banks.

 

3 hours ago, Oldddudders said:

But surely those banks are now holding assets of rapidly diminishing value? And the sums involved are staggering in some cases. 

 

There's hundreds of billions, if not trillions of $$$$ tied up in all those airframes.

In theory, enough to have a significant impact on the banking system, if the value of those assets were wiped out in one go (which won't happen).

 

Unless the pandemic cannot be arrested (doomsday scenario), once this episode has diminished, there will be a slow recovery in the commercial airline business.

The inevitable economic slow down and probable global recession being the main factors.

Much lower demand being the result of less economic activity, financial hardship and austerity following the pandemic.

 

There will have been some big casualties before we get there though (e.g. possibly Norwegian), but the airline business will recover.

Some European governments are already acting, or stating their intentions to protect their major carriers.

The French government will never allow Air France to fold and leading figures in the Dutch government have stated that AF's partner, KLM will not be allowed to collapse.

It's also difficult to imagine Germany allowing Lufthansa and Eurowings to crumble either.

IAG (BA, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Veuling, Level) are said to be cash rich and have taken significant measures to trim back and save money in the meantime; whereas low cost giants, EasyJet and Ryanair are also said to be very lean as well as financially sound.

 

Another potential economic impact, as pointed out by Ian (Oldddudders) will be on the airline manufacturing sector, a large and important industry across Europe and N. America.

If there is to be a large pool of surplus, modern aircraft, resulting from some airline failures and reduced demand; airline orders for new aircraft will be chopped back, or new orders not forthcoming.

The knock on effect will not be good for the economies involved.

 

 

.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Ron Ron Ron

[Dunsignalling]

53 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

Then there are the aerospace manufacturers, who now see their precious order books worth not much more than the virtual paper they are printed on. And a whole sea of support industries, one close to me, suddenly without work or purpose. 

I think the order book of the biggest one of all was already heading that way, for a different reason altogether, before Covid-19 came along.

 

John

[Ron Ron Ron]

2 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

I think the order book of the biggest one of all was already heading that way, for a different reason altogether, before Covid-19 came along.

 

 

Can anyone see the US government allowing them to go to the wall?

[jcredfer]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Planes are doubtless "unsaleable" currently, and probably will be for months to come, but if I were a bank I would be betting on them becoming saleable again in future, and would be thinking about which ones might fetch most, a 'release strategy' to avoid glutting the market, and doing things to prolong their "shelf life".

 

And, I would be ready to whisper/shout in any ear that would listen about the need to re-start aviation as fast as possible, and putting my best snake-oil salesmen on the job of schmoozing the decision-makers into putting tax-income into it. Oh, and trying to stand on the neck of anyone who sees the current downturn in aviation as an opportunity to get on top of the huge amount of environmental damage that it does in order to give the more prosperous nth of the world a nice holiday.

 

The pressures to get back to "business as usual" as fast as possible, in all sectors, not just aviation, are immense.

 

Accurate.....    but sad, summary of what is already being, vigorously, planned, as you pressed the keys.  There will also be those who will wait until shares in those aeroplane holding companies are low enough to buy in, pending the next set of loans.

 

Julian

 

[Jonboy]

Still the 737 max project managers must be incredibly pleased with the lull in demand....

[Nearholmer]

22 minutes ago, midlands said:

Has anyone noted any signs of break downs financial or business wise of the countries further advanced in lockdowns then the UK?

 

Businesses are being impacted to varying degrees everywhere, but provided that governments are competent, there shouldn't be break-downs of the financial systems (there might be temporary blips, localised cash shortages for instance, rather like the loo roll shortages, though).

 

If you think of the function of the financial/business/public-spending world as like a giant and mind-bogglingly complicated machine, with goods/services, and money flowing through it, what are happening simultaneously are the slowing down of significant parts of the machine, and localised reconfiguration of the pipework.

 

If it were a slowing down only (a recession essentially), some businesses would crash as the money flowing through them reduced to a mere dribble, and everyone would gradually begin to be/feel poorer, because the rate at which money was flowing through their hands would reduce. Then, if everything followed the usual course, the machine would be nursed along and coaxed back up to speed by various minor tinkerings.

 

But, the temporary reconfiguration of the pipework is going to have an affect too. In the UK, new pipework is rapidly being cobbled together to supply money from tax-revenue and government borrowing (a) to pay for what must be a huge increase in NHS , social-care cost, policing costs etc.; and (b) to route money via under-worked businesses into the wage-packets of under-employed workers.

 

The closest parallel must be WW2, when everything had to be re-configured to turn the country into a fighting machine, and a huge proportion of the population ended-up being employed by the government either directly, or indirectly in things like armaments manufacture. And, that shaped 

the finances and business of the UK massively, for at least thirty or forty years.

 

A more recent parallel is the banking crash in 2008, when a reconfiguration took place to route buckets of money into the coffers of banks to prevent them collapsing under the weight of their own folly. Ten years of reduced public services, and collapsed businesses to pay for that one.

 

The pressure to reverse the reconfiguration now being made is going to be huge, because it is in everyone's interests (except, I guess, those lending to governments) to keep it as short-lived as possible.  

 

Tax income  to the government must have fallen like a stone, so presumably a lot more borrowing to pay for it; as taxpayers we will have to repay the loans, or pay interest on them "forever"; as users of public services we will probably see them yet further cut, to release money to deal with the loans; businesses that depend on very optional spending will fold, because we won't have spare money for fripperies, unless the government borrows even more to cushion things, in which case further trouble later; some businesses will loose out to foreign competition and fold; some UK businesses might managed to collar sections of overseas markets while others are reeling; share prices will go "all over the place", affecting the value of pension funds* .......... and, and, and.

 

And, every other country is in much the same position, except that the less they are impacted by the virus (either because their way of dealing with it is very smart, or because they are just plain lucky), the less shock they will suffer, and because so much trade is international, all these shocks bounce-off one another.

 

One heck of a lot of disruption and probably a lot of individual unhappiness as a result .......... but, the positive side of all this is that it is actually voluntarily accepted disruption, for a humanitarian cause., although it might not feel very voluntary. It is the price of saving as many people as possible from the virus, rather than sacrificing a random selection of the population in order to avoid the disruption.

 

(please forgive the ramble ........ I have bad habit of using such rambles to tidy-up thoughts in my head)

 

*I think this will hit public-sector funds too, because the public purse will struggle to fill any under-value gaps that emerge.

[Joseph_Pestell]

What seems to be different, economically, in this situation is that all countries are in the same doo-doo.

 

Someone mentioned the delay this will cause to final Brexit trade negotiations. There may not be an EU to make a deal with if the EU countries take their own decisions about state-aid for private companies.

[Jonboy]

Italy has a lot of zombie companies anyway, just ticking over on ever-renewed bank loans...the central bank won’t tighten up the terms because doing so in a consistent way would crash their economy as many companies would fold...meaning all our Italian suppliers are relatively sanguine about the shutdown.

 

not sure on the others as I don’t deal with many other EU country’s other than the odd company here and there.

[Ron Ron Ron]

The Italian banks are effectively bankrupt already and have only been kept going by being propped up by the Euro Target-2 arrangements.

A lot of financial commentators believe that if a collapse does come, Germany, who is carrying most of the debt for the rest of the Eurozone, will go into self protection mode and pull the plug, bringing the whole unstable Euro edifice down overnight, collapsing many southern and smaller European economies in the process.

I imagine this is at the forefront of the minds of the EU hierarchy and the ECB as they scramble to find solutions to dealing with the aftermath of the pandemic.

 

Not a political comment as such, but it's blindingly obvious that the EU have been a woeful shambles during this crisis up to now and that governments of member states are putting their national interests to the fore.

 

.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Ron Ron Ron

[Ron Ron Ron]

There was a report yesterday from some medics in a London NHS trust, that those suffering from COVID-19 who were severely ill enough to be put in ICU, currently stood a 50/50 chance of survival and they were questioning the situation where they would end up ventilating large numbers of patients knowing it was ultimately pointless.

From various press reports going out tonight, it seems that decisions have now been made to only give critical care to those who are considered to have a "reasonable certainty" of survival.

Not entirely unexpected I suppose.

This is truly a dreadful situation.

 

 

.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Ron Ron Ron

[APOLLO]

A game changer for sure.

 

As far as airlines are concerned they will re emerge very much changed. Lots of older plane fleets have been mothballed, some will never fly again. The "Queen of the sky" the Boeing 747 is one, few will fly again, except the freighters - they will fly for a long time on - nothing much can replace them. A question mark hangs for the  Airbus A380, The 737max may be canned. Lots of routes will reopen - but not quite as before.

 

As I mentioned earlier, the banks will be the only winners out of all this. They own the world, AND it's future, also most folks are in debt to them, especially the younger generations with mortgages, student loans, credit card debt etc.

 

Expect also a reduction in freedoms, even after the virus has subsided.

 

Many questions - no answers unfortunately.

 

Brit15

[midlands]

14 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

There was a report yesterday from some medics in a London NHS trust, that those suffering from COVID-19 who were severely ill enough to be put in ICU, currently stood a 50/50 chance of survival and they were questioning the situation where they would end up ventilating large numbers of patients knowing it was ultimately pointless.

From various press reports going out tonight, it seems that decisions have now been made to only give critical care to those who are considered to have a "reasonable certainty" of survival.

Not entirely unexpected I suppose.

This is truly a dreadful situation.

 

 

.

 

yes, and not entirely un-expected, It would not be the first time certain groups have been "sacrificed" for the sake of the majority. I know with my underlying medical problems I would probably not be volunteered for further intensive care as the liklyhood of my survival is slim to none If infected.

[Jonboy]

Given the belief you see in people that every possible medical chance should be taken for every person routinely through the news normally , I think my generation* are in for a bloody big shock as the reality hits over the next few weeks.

 

*between the baby boomers and millennials

[Nearholmer]

23 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

From various press reports going out tonight,

 

Are you able to post a link?

 

Thanks in advance.

[Jonboy]

5 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Are you able to post a link?

 

Thanks in advance.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8165651/Only-patients-reasonable-certainty-survival-ventilators-London-hospital.html

[beast66606]

Railway companies are storing locos - GBRF have 2 66s heading to Tyne Yard for storage and "there are more to come" (not sure if this is GBRF or other FOCs)

[NIK]

45 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

There was a report yesterday from some medics in a London NHS trust, that those suffering from COVID-19 who were severely ill enough to be put in ICU, currently stood a 50/50 chance of survival and they were questioning the situation where they would end up ventilating large numbers of patients knowing it was ultimately pointless.

From various press reports going out tonight, it seems that decisions have now been made to only give critical care to those who are considered to have a "reasonable certainty" of survival.

Not entirely unexpected I suppose.

This is truly a dreadful situation.

 

 

.

Hi,

 

I think I heard a UK BBC? report earlier in the crisis that Italy was using a triage system where hospital doctors would decide who was unlikely to survive, who was likely benefit from hospital treatment and who were the 'walking wounded'. The first would not be given treatment to give them the best chance, the second would be given appropriate treatment for their condition in hospital. I assume the third would be given as little treatment as would maximise the chances for all involved.

 

I guess this may have lead to early deaths of some patients but may have optimised the efficiency of the hospital to treat the patients expected to arrive later.

 

I understand from the report the Italian hospital triage system is based on military experience. The extra twist in this tragedy is the enemy is not only invisible but its vulnerability, lethality and tactics uncertain and may evolve.

 

Take care.

 

Nick

[billbedford]

1 hour ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

There was a report yesterday from some medics in a London NHS trust, that those suffering from COVID-19 who were severely ill enough to be put in ICU, currently stood a 50/50 chance of survival and they were questioning the situation where they would end up ventilating large numbers of patients knowing it was ultimately pointless.

 

 

The quote from the original Telegraph article was:

 

Quote

 

Professor Julian Redhead, medical director at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, said: “Clinicians at our trust are not making decisions about ventilating patients based on capacity considerations.

"Our trust currently has good capacity for patients requiring ventilation and already has plans in place to increase that capacity as needed.

“We know that very poorly patients with coronavirus may need to be on a ventilator for extended periods – for some patients this would not be in their best interests.

“Clinicians have to make difficult judgements on the balance of risk and benefit for patients all of the time and will also endeavour to discuss decisions with patients and families.”

 

 

Isn't that just what you would hope for in a caring doctor?

 

 

[LBRJ]

6 minutes ago, billbedford said:

 

The quote from the original Telegraph article was:

 

 

Isn't that just what you would hope for in a caring doctor?

 

 

 

As opposed to saying what exactly?

[Ron Ron Ron]

56 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Are you able to post a link?

 

Thanks in advance.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/29/intensive-care-coronavirus-patients-now-limited-reasonably-certain/

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8165651/Only-patients-reasonable-certainty-survival-ventilators-London-hospital.html

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/28/coronavirus-intensive-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate

 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/wires/pa/article-8164593/Mortality-rate-intensive-care-patients-50--study.html

 

 

.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Ron Ron Ron

[EddieB]

2 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

And, every other country is in much the same position, except that the less they are impacted by the virus (either because their way of dealing with it is very smart, or because they are just plain lucky), the less shock they will suffer, and because so much trade is international, all these shocks bounce-off one another.

Except China?

 

Having weathered their storm, their centralised and state-controlled economy can now survey a very cheap world.  For a system that was already buying into a load of other countries (look no further than the UK, but influence is particularly strong across Africa), it couldn’t have come at a better time.