Hornby 2014 - predictions

[newbryford]

Re-entry into TT would certainly cause Peco people to grind their teeth. They developed a 12mm gauge track system - just in time for Tri-ang to pull the plug on their TT range, limiting sales of the Peco products at a stroke.

 

I think a reintroduction of TT into the UK would cause some more teeth grinding.

Would the discerning British model railway public accept 12mm track gauge nowadays?

Original Tri-ang TT was even more of a cockup compromise than 00. "British" TT is 3mm/foot, approximately 1:101 scale and the gauge should be 14.2mm. IIRC, European TT is 1:120 using 12mm gauge.

 

Cheers,

Mick

[Ozexpatriate]

And Datsun is back - in the low end of the market.

 

The Nissan brand was used to go up-market, somewhat successfully, to deliberately avoid the 'cheap and cheerful import' image that Datsun had. Most of the range will still be known as Nissan.

As someone who drives a Nissan it has been the most reliable car I've ever owned.

Me too.

 

Isn't the up-market stuff called Infiniti ?

Up-market as distinct from the "luxury" category. The rebranding was to compete with the likes of Toyota in larger vehicles including the sedan/saloon space with vehicles like Altima, Maxima etc. Selling these is harder when the Datsun badge was associated with the compacts of the 1970s.

 

But we're a bit off topic.

[Ceptic]

I wonder whether we will see a repeat of last year - in the sense of having one new model hit the shelves quickly (the 2 BIL last year) even if everything else is delayed.

 Even that was a distribution c#ck- up. Favoured concessions getting first slice of a cake on ration.

It was only after the, major, concessionaire hit the buffers, that more appeared on the market.

[frobisher]

If there is to be a move into another scale, the only logical course would be to develop their, as yet embryonic, N scale range where they have the expertise of their Arnold division to draw on.

I'd disagree somewhat on this point. Bachmann and Dapol have carved up the UK market between them already. All that is left really is the niches, which is where the Arnold 5BEL is aimed. Hornby have missed the boat to be mainstream in this scale by about 4-5 years, and almost all the major "gaps" are plugged or being plugged in the near future, and shonky legacy models are being upgraded and replaced. Revitalising the former Lima range just would not cut it on any level now, so a standing start for a proper range would be required, and this would be almost 100% duplication of vehicles that have been recently produced to modern standards.

 

Building a new market, whilst risky would potentially allow for greater success.

[rodger5591]

I'd disagree somewhat on this point. Bachmann and Dapol have carved up the UK market between them already. All that is left really is the niches, which is where the Arnold 5BEL is aimed. Hornby have missed the boat to be mainstream in this scale by about 4-5 years, and almost all the major "gaps" are plugged or being plugged in the near future, and shonky legacy models are being upgraded and replaced. Revitalising the former Lima range just would not cut it on any level now, so a standing start for a proper range would be required, and this would be almost 100% duplication of vehicles that have been recently produced to modern standards.

 

Building a new market, whilst risky would potentially allow for greater success.

 

The market is going to change radically once 3D printing takes off and I'm sure the RTR makers are trying to figure out business models for when that happens. There will be a new market for scale drawings for serious modellers to buy, and a new market for RTR chassis-only for those who are happy to print off and detail a loco body but unwilling to build a chassis. Commission work will change too, as NRM, Steam, model shops etc will be able to make/detail their own bodies, so will just need to commission the chassis. There will still be a market for RTR for those who don't/can't use 3D printing, and Bachmann/Hornby will also use 3D printing for that, but how much of a market ? 3D printing will certainly bring good times for small companies making high quality detailing products, and some of them will venture into making and selling fully detailed bodies, but the business model for mass market RTR as we now know it now will be gone - we are already seeing the changes starting.

[rope runner]

I think that perhaps your 3D printed future is a tad OTT Rodger 

 

Paul A.

[John M Upton]

Personally, i'd like it if Hornby came out with a catalogue of models that they felt could be delivered within the next twelve months. There are a number of models from this year still outstanding (P2, Duke, Hall, etc etc), therefore even if only one new model were announced, i'd prefer it as at least it would allow the company to get back to a sense of normality after the supply issues this year.

They did, the 2013 announcement clearly stated they were only announcing models that would be delivered by the end of this year, needless to say  I was not in the least bit surprised when the announcement of delays appeared about April/May time.

 

And we are STILL waiting for models announced in 2012, in fact I think there even may be the odd 2011 model still missing in action.  

 

The whole situation is beyond farcical now.  If Hornby don't get this sorted out ASAP and proverbially kick some Chinese backside into shape, they are going to continue to be held to ransom by their lazy contracted manufacturers and I fear they will go under.

[dibber25]

 

 

 

  

 

The whole situation is beyond farcical now.  

A bit like this thread, then.

CHRIS LEIGH

[John M Upton]

Nice one Chris!!  

[The Stationmaster]

I'd disagree somewhat on this point. Bachmann and Dapol have carved up the UK market between them already. All that is left really is the niches, which is where the Arnold 5BEL is aimed. Hornby have missed the boat to be mainstream in this scale by about 4-5 years, and almost all the major "gaps" are plugged or being plugged in the near future, and shonky legacy models are being upgraded and replaced. Revitalising the former Lima range just would not cut it on any level now, so a standing start for a proper range would be required, and this would be almost 100% duplication of vehicles that have been recently produced to modern standards.

 

Building a new market, whilst risky would potentially allow for greater success.

 

I think you're right - Hornby would need their collective heads examining and boiling in oil if they decided to go for 2mm/N gauge as it is an already crowded marketplace with slower moving/less popular stock sitting on manufacturers' (and probably retailers') shelves while Bachmann and Dapol slug it out to try to dominate the UK market in r-t-r in that scale; I can see one of them eventually coming off badly out of that battle.

 

If Hornby are going to diversify in model railway terms they have to find a niche where there is limited or no competition and where they can make the market - I'm not entirely sure if the company in its present form has the vigour and market knowledge to do that but if it really got down to it I suspect it probably could manage it provided the investment money is there and production rates can match market expectations and demands.

 

I also think that they could manage to compete in the 'higher fidelity' 4mm r-t-r market if they put their mind to it as past products have shown but it is very much a matter of them adjusting their thinking to that sort of market and recognising the way it has changed in the past few years.  I'm not sure that the inherently smaller volumes of this market will ever be their thing and that might steer them away plus they have continuing apparent difficulty in distinguishing products by labelled range and consistent standards at the higher end.  Maybe a move to stronger brand/product range management will help there but again it is as much a matter of thinking in the right box as anything else, and they might not be in that box nowadays?

[frobisher]

rodger5591, on 11 Dec 2013 - 03:52, said:

The market is going to change radically once 3D printing takes off and I'm sure the RTR makers are trying to figure out business models for when that happens. There will be a new market for scale drawings for serious modellers to buy, and a new market for RTR chassis-only for those who are happy to print off and detail a loco body but unwilling to build a chassis. Commission work will change too, as NRM, Steam, model shops etc will be able to make/detail their own bodies, so will just need to commission the chassis. There will still be a market for RTR for those who don't/can't use 3D printing, and Bachmann/Hornby will also use 3D printing for that, but how much of a market ? 3D printing will certainly bring good times for small companies making high quality detailing products, and some of them will venture into making and selling fully detailed bodies, but the business model for mass market RTR as we now know it now will be gone - we are already seeing the changes starting.

This of course assumes that magically everyone suddenly acquires 3D CAD skills or those with such talents freely share the fruits of their labour.

[Combe Martin]

It's worth pointing out that Bachmann (who are 'brilliant', 'perfect', never make a mistake, and only ever produce models that work first time out of the box and don't have to be returned, and can do no wrong in the eyes of many contributors on here) also have production problems, with new models being delayed.

 

How long have we been waiting for the Stanier 'porthole' coaches.  They were shown to the public ages ago, and are now delayed until mid 2014 !   I bet I'll be in my coffin by the time the retooled Thompson coaches appear, let alone either of these 2 ranges in BR maroon which is what we really want! 

 

And don't forget that Bachmann are the retail arm of the Chinese Kader factory, and so must have much more control over production schedules.     

[Coach bogie]

The market is going to change radically once 3D printing takes off and I'm sure the RTR makers are trying to figure out business models for when that happens. There will be a new market for scale drawings for serious modellers to buy, and a new market for RTR chassis-only for those who are happy to print off and detail a loco body but unwilling to build a chassis. Commission work will change too, as NRM, Steam, model shops etc will be able to make/detail their own bodies, so will just need to commission the chassis. There will still be a market for RTR for those who don't/can't use 3D printing, and Bachmann/Hornby will also use 3D printing for that, but how much of a market ? 3D printing will certainly bring good times for small companies making high quality detailing products, and some of them will venture into making and selling fully detailed bodies, but the business model for mass market RTR as we now know it now will be gone - we are already seeing the changes starting.

3D priniting is fine for producing masters and proving runs, and will speed up the tooling process as it already does in many sectors. In my wife's organisation they have just produced the masters for new design pump casing with 3D. I have had several discussion with the 3D designers as to how it could be applied in the modelling sector and they clearly see it as small run stuff. Clearly mass production is not offered as a benefit for any 3D printer that they or I am aware of.

 

Materials used will need much more development. I was shown a GWR gas wagon recently that is highly detailed but very light, fragile and of concern as to how it will survive long term with normal hobby usage. In addition there is the painting and finishing. As most rtr is really a kit of parts that are base painted prior to final assembly, I cannot see how 3D printing offers any advantage of existing production methods and will be considerably slower. Time = money. More time =  more expensive to the consumer.

 

If the main manufacturers are expected to produce only running chassis for other companies to finish, I suspect they will puill out all together.

 

I do NOT see 3D as an alternative in the immediate future for large runs

 

Mike Wiltshire

[John M Upton]

I think we can cut Bachmann a little slack as they at least do not promise things by the end of the year they are announced and do a decent enough effort to keep everyone informed as to progress.  Yes the Class 40 has been a VERY long time coming but then Bachmann effectively threw in the towel, admitted their first attempt was all but a crock of proverbial and started again from scratch.

 

I am not a 'Bachmann Apologist' though!!

[great northern]

It's worth pointing out that Bachmann (who are 'brilliant', 'perfect', never make a mistake, and only ever produce models that work first time out of the box and don't have to be returned, and can do no wrong in the eyes of many contributors on here) also have production problems, with new models being delayed.

 

How long have we been waiting for the Stanier 'porthole' coaches.  They were shown to the public ages ago, and are now delayed until mid 2014 !   I bet I'll be in my coffin by the time the retooled Thompson coaches appear, let alone either of these 2 ranges in BR maroon which is what we really want! 

 

And don't forget that Bachmann are the retail arm of the Chinese Kader factory, and so must have much more control over production schedules.     

The thread entitled "Bachmann Quality issues", which has had 81 replies must have escaped your notice then?

[Nimbus]

I also think that they could manage to compete in the 'higher fidelity' 4mm r-t-r market if they put their mind to it as past products have shown but it is very much a matter of them adjusting their thinking to that sort of market and recognising the way it has changed in the past few years.  I'm not sure that the inherently smaller volumes of this market will ever be their thing and that might steer them away plus they have continuing apparent difficulty in distinguishing products by labelled range and consistent standards at the higher end.  Maybe a move to stronger brand/product range management will help there but again it is as much a matter of thinking in the right box as anything else, and they might not be in that box nowadays?

 

"Do a Lexus"? Hmmm...  rtr P4?

 

The Nim.

[Combe Martin]

Why should we cut Bachmann any slack at all ?.  They and the factory in China are the same company.  They have ultimate control !

 

If Hornby tried to get a bit too rough with their suppliers, and one of them says 'get stuffed', where does that leave Hornby.  How easy would it be to pop down the road, claim all the tools, and sign up a new supplier to immediately cover their production delays ? .

[dcroz]

The thread entitled "Bachmann Quality issues", which has had 81 replies must have escaped your notice then?

 

Also the current thread on the decorated samples of the Bachmann 101 DMU ...

[Combe Martin]

And I've read the thread about Bachmann quality issues too, and have first hand experience of them as well.  That's why I get annoyed with the 'Brilliant Bachmann who can do no wrong' but 'Big bad Hornby' views of some of the contributors on here.

 

I havn't criticised Bachmann publicly on here about any faults I might have with their products, I'd rather sort things out with Bachmann myself in a friendly way.  And I do the same with Hornby too, who 'bend over backwards' to rectify the very few problems (one only) with their products.  

[The Stationmaster]

Why should we cut Bachmann any slack at all ?.  They and the factory in China are the same company.  They have ultimate control !

 

If Hornby tried to get a bit too rough with their suppliers, and one of them says 'get stuffed', where does that leave Hornby.  How easy would it be to pop down the road, claim all the tools, and sign up a new supplier to immediately cover their production delays ? .

 

Actually they don't have 'ultimate control' - Bachmann Europe is a wholly owned subsidiary of Kader Holdings and obtains product from the factory in the same way as any of Kader's other wholly owned subsidiaries and brands.  And the fact that it doesn't have such 'control' should be fairly obvious from what took place with the 'Modified Hall' and 'Hall' which were both delivered from China with noticeable faults which led to them being sent back to the factory.

 

All of which has nothing whatsoever to do with the 'game' of guessing predicting what new etc models Hornby will announce next week - at which point no doubt this thread will become an ex-thread and a new one will start telling Hornby they've made the right/wrong/helpful/useless choices of models for the right/wrong period or in the right/wrong livery.  Fortunately there is an old saying that 'bad publicity is better than no publicity'.

[Combe Martin]

Exactly, being a subsidiary, the control that's potentially there either isn't or can't be exercised.  So how can anyone expect Hornby to have the same amount of control over it's suppliers who are not the same company ? 

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

I think you're right - Hornby would need their collective heads examining and boiling in oil if they decided to go for 2mm/N gauge as it is an already crowded marketplace with slower moving/less popular stock sitting on manufacturers' (and probably retailers') shelves while Bachmann and Dapol slug it out to try to dominate the UK market in r-t-r in that scale; I can see one of them eventually coming off badly out of that battle...

Hopefully the commercial intel inside the business is enough developed to have spotted that Dapol who not so long ago declared their business as 'focussed on N, no plans to do much in OO', not that long thereafter commenced marching out OO model announcements, Bachmann GF meanwhile outright cancelling a couple of N products because Dapol had beaten them to market with equivalents. That's evidence enough of saturatioN iN the uNited kiNgdom from half a dozen years back, and I doubt there's been any change since.  'Gap fillers' reusing research like the 5-BEL may be sensible, if it will make a return on investment matching the same class of product in OO. But if it doesn't, you would expect a rational management accountant to suggest focus on the more profitable line.

 

The continuing entry of RTR manufacturers to the OO market, with DJM and Rapido showing their hands this year argues very strongly that this is primarily where the money is to be made in this business in the UK. Hornby still have that useful brand name and high street recognition that comes with it. Their game is far from up...

[Coombe Barton]

And just some thoughts on rebranding and changes - http://money.uk.msn.com/investing/photos.aspx?cp-documentid=157654000&page=1

 

It's not all a bed of roses.

[John M Upton]

If anyone is thinking that the BRM calendar is going to give us our usual early preview of reliveries for next year, don't bother. No product views at all this year. Some nice photography in it though.

[Les1952]

We sometimes forget that Hornby is already one of the bigger players in the N market, probably because being British we don't look enough to the Continent and that Hornby trade in N as Arnold.......

 

I'm still not expecting anything in N until they know how many Brighton Belles have sold to the UK compared with their expectations- and only they know what proportion of the total production they expect to sell in the UK.

 

However I'll not object to being proved wrong.

 

All the best

Les