Hornby's financial updates to the Stock Market

[JSpencer]

I'd hardly say £99 for an 0-4-0 tank was 'Lower cost to the consumer'.

 

Again, I would have liked to have seen Hornby do the Barclay (and possibly the P class) as Railroad (or perhaps Railroad + ) items - they're the sort of size of loco which is ideal for anyone expanding from a train set, and having numerous preserved examples, ideal for selling to families through preserved railways - IF the price is right. And anyone wanting a Barclay 0-4-0ST for their layout would probably still have bought them anyway! Instead Hattons are bringing them out a high-spec £100 version - another opportunity missed.

 

In a round about way, Hornby have added all new models to the Railroad range, the Tornado A1, P2, Duke and Crosti 9F spring to mind. You also have the Sentinal diesels.

 

With such small locos, there are 2 questions which arise, so do they tool up the full detailed one or a railroad one? Resources probably won't exist for two sets of tooling or recovering costs is made much harder to do so. I suspect most of the market wanting an industrial (or pre-grouping tank) will prefer the higher cost detailed version over the lower cost railroad. Most newcomers will tend to start with big name locos and a loop, those starting with a small industrial/shunting plank will not need lots of  locos, one or two high quality locos will be suffice and can be used to form part of a detailed scene.

 

The appearance of Hattons P class just secured my 2018 budget, meaning that I will be reluctant to buy additional existing classes, even an extra Merchant Navy representing late BR crest, further DCC sound conversions are postponed until 2019, the Heljan L&B tank just get definitively cancelled (along with branching into 00-9), new expo layout work (which would have involved buying track and other sundries) now postponed until 2019...

 

My point is, these announcements do affect expenditure elsewhere but equally I would not have been keen on a Railroad P class.

Edited September 12, 2017 by JSpencer

[Mike Storey]

Not sure whether 1 persons habits since switching from N to OO reflect the challenge but flicking through this thread it does strike me that Hornby might not be covering all the key things then need to. In switching to OO I am playing around with that nice blue era. I'll ignore what I have spent on track as its not relevant but in stock terms I have bought 1 thing new that is Hornby (Ex LMS brake van) along with a class 31 off ebay. Everything else is Bachman along with a rake of Dapol concrete wagon.

 

So I know there are many people who model other era's who say there are things missing, but does anyone else recognise this as a seeming complete gap? I'm not saying I spend enough to save Hornby or anything daft like that but I can't be the only one in this position or is this just another view of Hornby's lack of a product roadmap that has been covered in depth prior to this?

 

I asked Simon at a show once, as to why Hornby were practically ignoring the BR blue era, and his response was a surprising "No demand". That was several years ago, but I get the feeling they are not comfortable with that market, hence are happy to leave it to Bachmann. A pity because we have seen the primary market gradually move from pre-diesel to the transition period over the past decade or so. It would be logical to assume that will move on to BR blue not long from now, as people from that era become a larger element of modellers (although available cash may become more of a problem). But then again, it is fairly saturated already with almost all locos, most DMU's and a few EMU's available, leaving only relatively niche markets to exploit.

 

My era is BR blue too, but, having collected everything I thought I might need over the past few decades, I only have a few gaps to fill, one of which is already announced (2 HAP), one is in crowdsourcing with very slow gestation (Class 74) and the others would probably not be commercial, hence I am sourcing components for bashing. The impetus to spend more only comes from new release models vastly improved from the ones I already have, which led me to replace all my Lima 33's with Heljan ones, and my Hornby 73's with the Dapol version (even given the niggles with the latter). An SLW version of anything I have got will probably lead to further replacements, given their fabulous Class 24.

 

Many have commented when these new models were released, that they were not sufficiently good enough to cause them to do the same. But the evidence that much higher quality models sell well, is evidenced by SLW, Realtrack, DJM and others, even Hornby themselves on occasion. The toy train market is all very well, and can chug along with antiquated tooling for a long time, earning some decent cash flow, but margins must be attractive on higher spec, lower volume products. But it is relatively risky. It will be interesting to see which way Hornby choose to go, with clear evidence that they can do high end very well indeed. I doubt their current product mix is viable in this more competitive market. How much appetite do Phoenix have for risk?

[JSpencer]

I asked Simon at a show once, as to why Hornby were practically ignoring the BR blue era, and his response was a surprising "No demand". That was several years ago, but I get the feeling they are not comfortable with that market, hence are happy to leave it to Bachmann. A pity because we have seen the primary market gradually move from pre-diesel to the transition period over the past decade or so. It would be logical to assume that will move on to BR blue not long from now, as people from that era become a larger element of modellers (although available cash may become more of a problem). But then again, it is fairly saturated already with almost all locos, most DMU's and a few EMU's available, leaving only relatively niche markets to exploit.

 

 

They missed a trick, or maybe expected the Lima take over to fill the gap, by not doing all new 20s, 37s and 47s. They did try to tart up the Lima 20, but it cost as much as the Bachmann one which was vastly superior. To have lost the two biggest diesel classes as super detailed models to Bachmann was a major error, there would of course be no point adding them now as they fast disappearing from UK railways.

They did capture the 31 but overall, Bachmann and Heljan soaked up most with Dapol and other players taking the rest of BR Blue loco classes.

 

They still missed doing a BR blue class 09 and there is the 87 on the way. They could probably beat DJM to getting a 74 out. But sales on this class are not quick, probably limited by the awkward period they live in (never green and barely tops - with any colour as like as long as it BR Blue as a livery choice).

 

The one thing which amazes me is Corgi. They just released a Falklands 1/72ns scale Sea King Helicopter. I would love to have a 1/72nd Falklands Sea King. But I will not buy because a: too expensive and b: too basic in detail. I could live with cheap and basic or expensive and detailed.

What they could do is sell their modern detailed Airfix kits pre-made under the Corgi label (with some flash name so that people know they are not actually diecast).

Edited September 12, 2017 by JSpencer

[adb968008]

They missed a trick, or maybe expected the Lima take over to fill the gap, by not doing all new 20s, 37s and 47s. They did try to tart up the Lima 20, but it cost as much as the Bachmann one which was vastly superior. To have lost the two biggest diesel classes as super detailed models to Bachmann was a major error, there would of course be no point adding them now as they fast disappearing from UK railways.

 

Not entirely convinced there, why buy the Lima tooling then bin it for new ones ?

Bachmann took the risk going head to head with the Lima one, I'm sure they paid more for new toolings than Hornby did from Limas administrators.

Now add in inflation, and Hornby has railroad Lima toolings, made from the most part by 4 large mouldings, that can be made cheaply, look OK and are most likely full amortised by now.

Put another way, the last few years Hornby has done several Lima toolings, now with tts and sell out quite fast, and are under £80, often under £40 dcc ready..,When Lima breathed its last they were £40 then..20 years ago.

 

Imho the two best investments in the hobby I'd say was Dapol buying the Airfix/Wrenn wagon toolings, and Hornby's investment in Lima.. both have done the test of time, and are still feeding cheap models to the market today, both were acquisitions via demise of the investor.

 

I'd say that investment has done it's job.. making money quite well.

 

To me the problem is the hobby is getting too stuck in the past..even "modern image" is 20th Century. Look at European modelling.. modern image is a wash with electrics and units. Piko is leading the charge here.. you can get a quite reasonable Taurus for £60, a 4 car ICE for £120.., even Roco die-hards are reluctantly starting to agree Piko new BR112 electric is streets Infront of Rocos older one, which is more expensive.

Edited September 12, 2017 by adb968008

[JSpencer]

Not entirely convinced there, why buy the Lima tooling then bin it for new ones ?

Bachmann took the risk going head to head with the Lima one, I'm sure they paid more for new toolings than Hornby did from Limas administrators.

Now add in inflation, and Hornby has railroad Lima toolings, made from the most part by 4 large mouldings, that can be made cheaply, look OK and are most likely full amortised by now.

Put another way, the last few years Hornby has done several Lima toolings, now with tts and sell out quite fast, and are under £80, often under £40 dcc ready..,When Lima breathed its last they were £40 then..20 years ago.

 

Imho the two best investments in the hobby I'd say was Dapol buying the Airfix/Wrenn wagon toolings, and Hornby's investment in Lima.. both have done the test of time, and are still feeding cheap models to the market today, both were acquisitions via demise of the investor.

 

I'd say that investment has done it's job.. making money quite well.

 

To me the problem is the hobby is getting too stuck in the past..even "modern image" is 20th Century. Look at European modelling.. modern image is a wash with electrics and units. Piko is leading the charge here.. you can get a quite reasonable Taurus for £60, a 4 car ICE for £120.., even Roco die-hards are reluctantly starting to agree Piko new BR112 electric is streets Infront of Rocos older one, which is more expensive.

 

With Lima toolings came a whole host of stuff worldwide. It was a very huge collection and launched Hornby into other country train markets where they had not been for decades.

 

The problem was that - while the Dapol take over gave Hornby tooling close to Bachmann standards and allowed them to convert to Chinese production  - the Lima tooling was fast becoming obsolete and pushed Hornby into an International scene which would require adding a huge amount of infrastructure to the company. The money from the sale created a new competitor called ViTrains whom quickly set about doing modern retools of many classes they just sold to Hornby.

 

At the time, Hornby had been busy upgrading much of the Margate made range, but within a few years, it was blatantly obvious that all new tooling was more economical (as well as the best means for addressing flaws) than  trying to revamp all of these old tools. After the 20 revamp failure, many Lima items went on to become Railroad, but I'm seriously skeptical the Hornby recovered costs from this takeover and it may certainly have increased running costs of the business - railroad may have saved the day here but it almost certainly not the return they initially expected.

 

With Hindsight I feel they should NOT have brought Lima and used money to tool up the void their demise left (which is what Bachmann did, at least in the UK). Indeed PIKO that you quote is a good example of doing all new vs flogging an old horse and justifies my point. Or at best, just buy parts of the brands if you have a serious and detailed business plans for expansion into other markets.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

...They did capture the 31 but overall, Bachmann and Heljan soaked up most with Dapol and other players taking the rest of BR Blue loco classes...

Really? Hornby seem to me to have four premium models of the blueness in the form of classes 08, 31, 43, 50. I'd make that 3rd place after Bachmann / Heljan; Dapol have 2 or rather 1.5 (since the class 22  barely made it into blue) and there were no 'other players' for some years following the Hobbyco/Vitrain (also 2) evaporation from the UK market?

 

 ...To have lost the two biggest diesel classes as super detailed models to Bachmann was a major error, there would of course be no point adding them now as they fast disappearing from UK railways...

Then again, Bachmann and Heljan were 'in possession' of the 37 and 47 respectively, it took Bachmann some time to get their 47 out: and the Hobbyco/Vitrain  competitive entries collapsed swiftly, so perhaps Hornby were smarter in picking up some 'post blue' like the 60 and 67?

 

...The problem was that - ...The money from the (Lima) sale created a new competitor called ViTrains whom quickly set about doing modern retools of many classes they just sold to Hornby...

Not 'many' but 2. And that really worked out - not. What are you trying to argue here?

[Legend]

Hornby or Triang Hornby brought out the Class 37 in 1966. Hornby brought out the 47 in 1974, although it only arrived in 75. So I think what was meant was that Hornby had these locos in the range and so Bachmann and Bachmann / Heljan were the interlopers respectively.

[The Stationmaster]

Worth noting that Hornby has actually had a decent stab at reducing its debt.

 

On strategy, rather than invest multimillions in fixed production sites, Hornby would be better advised at looking at what it does well and building to its strengths. I'd be amazed if you could make a return on that sort of investment. They are clearly good at actually getting models from idea to shop but have been wed to a branded distribution strategy. What they could do is sell their research, design and logistics (you can't really call it production since that is outsourced) to wannabe producers. I.e. Work for the commissioners' market and sell the research, CAD, production management skills as a service. If they don't think they have the work load to keep the fixed cost of the design team busy, use them for other people doing niche models that don't fit the broader retail market.

 

However, the likes of Hattons and Kernow, as observed above, have realised they can do that themselves already. However, there are probably some smaller players, preserved railways, museums, loco groups, individuals(?), crowd source groups etc who may have capital but lack the direct knowledge of how to actually make a model.

 

 

working direct with the Chinese factories seems a great idea....BUT looking at the way some of the models promised which have been delayed  you have to wonder how long before Hattons, Kernow etc get the me problems as other (including Hornby) have had with companies in China who seem to promise a lot and then put prices up and delay deliveries.

 

Hornby have a problem with being a "big" company with some poor business planning in the past. Hopefully they can turn themselves around.

 

 

Baz

Two posts which while not necessarily saying it all certainly say most of it.

 

Hornby it seems are already going out looking for commission business and at lower numbers than their past policy.  they have an advantage in this area that they can offer a fully tooled and previously well received model for livery variants thus reducing the risk for both themselves and the commissioner.  I suspect that while they might well be able to 'do a Bachmann' and offer a full service from research (or research assistance) and design right through to production and delivery to the commissioner they might not yet be wholly ready to take on such a course for any but certain key 'blue riband' clients as this type of work can involve a lot of to-ing and fro-ing which builds cost and eats into their own development time (as Bachmann have found out).

 

The other point of course is that if you offer a 'full monty' service you will require to be paid for it and it won't be cheap when a commissioner could do a lot of such work for themselves and then go direct to factory leaving out the middleman and his costs.  So I doubt taht sort of commissioning will become commonplace at Hornby - but livery jobs might appear more frequently in future.

 

I can't either see them getting into crowd funding - too far from their present modus operandi and therefore likely to upset their core market even if that market is increasingly sure of getting a pretty good product.  And were they could use their R&D, and size, is ingoing for the big ticket newbies such as Class 8XX and in developing complimentary ranges over locos and rolling stock in much the way they have, to a varying extent, in the past.  Will their size - which otherwise does indeed look too big in an increasingly balkanised market - give them an advantage in buying production spaces and slots and the expense of 'jobbing commissioners' who are short of capitalisation?  Maybe that could turn out to be one of their strengths?

 

What I can foresee as the production side of the market begins to steady on its latest course are some potential casualties.  Unless everyone in the chain keeps their noses firmly to the grindstone - a discipline which probably comes easier to some than others - and as more commissioners find direct routes to Chinese factories I can see some possibly falling by the wayside when they don't get it right or live up to their promises.

[Clearwater]

 

I fully agree commissioned liveries of existing toolings should be a no brainer. If I were GWS, I'd be on the phone now asking for a 500 piece 4079 run to sell exclusively through the GWS shop for the year 4079 is brought back in service.

 

As others have rightly pointed out, Hornby's principal asset is their brand. Not compromising the "I want to buy little Johnny and Jill a train set - I'm buying Hornby" is vital. However, it's using those other skills wisely is where they could add value without compromising their brand. However, it doesn't follow that to maintain the train set market, that they have to be active in the riskier development of new detailed tools.

[RJS1977]

In a round about way, Hornby have added all new models to the Railroad range, the Tornado A1, P2, Duke and Crosti 9F spring to mind. You also have the Sentinal diesels.

 

With such small locos, there are 2 questions which arise, so do they tool up the full detailed one or a railroad one? Resources probably won't exist for two sets of tooling or recovering costs is made much harder to do so. I suspect most of the market wanting an industrial (or pre-grouping tank) will prefer the higher cost detailed version over the lower cost railroad. Most newcomers will tend to start with big name locos and a loop, those starting with a small industrial/shunting plank will not need lots of  locos, one or two high quality locos will be suffice and can be used to form part of a detailed scene.

 

The appearance of Hattons P class just secured my 2018 budget, meaning that I will be reluctant to buy additional existing classes, even an extra Merchant Navy representing late BR crest, further DCC sound conversions are postponed until 2019, the Heljan L&B tank just get definitively cancelled (along with branching into 00-9), new expo layout work (which would have involved buying track and other sundries) now postponed until 2019...

 

My point is, these announcements do affect expenditure elsewhere but equally I would not have been keen on a Railroad P class.

 

I'm not sure the P2 and the Crosti 9F are really suitable for Railroad - nobody under the age of about 60 has seen a Crosti 9F, and as for the P2....

 

 

I'm also not sure "most newcomers begin with a big loco and a loop" - though certainly many adult modellers do. Junior modellers though tend to begin with 101 or Caley Pug and a few wagons - then what? There's a gap for more 'Junior'/mid-range small engines to enable the youngsters to expand their collections at an affordable rate. Perhaps not the P, but I think the Barclay would have made a good 'Junior' loco (though note I am *not* advocating fitting it with a Scalextric motor).

 

I think the Sentinel probably has the quality/cost balance about right. Not over-expensive, but at the same time runs well, and plenty of 'serious' modellers have bought them.

 

 

You make a good point about buying the P rather than the Merchant Navy. If Hornby had announced the P rather than Hattons, and sales came at the expense of sales of other locos (which have been in the range long enough to pay off their development costs), rather than as new sales, even if a new model sells well, Hornby might have made less money than they would have done had they not brought it out! Long-term, the Trade as a whole needs to grow the market, and that means more entry/mid-level affordable models.

[RJS1977]

Thinking about Corgi/Airfix, are there ways Hornby could try to tie the ranges together more? (I'm leaving Scalextric out of this as it's a different scale).

 

As an example - how about a 'WW2' train set - suitable loco, two or three wagons loaded with aircraft spares/munitions etc, and an Airfix control tower and Spitfire?

 

Or throw in a couple of 'Corgi Junior' vehicles with each track mat.

 

And a 'freebie' booklet in the box listing:

* The Hornby Railroad Range

* The budget end of Airfix

* Corgi 'Junior' items.

 

In some ways it's a shame that the Airfix model railway kits are still with Dapol rather than Hornby. Unless there's some 'arrangement' between the two companies preventing Airfix/Hornby muscling in on that turf, maybe it would be worth Airfix's while trying to get back in on the 'model railway accessories' sector. 

[JSpencer]

Really? Hornby seem to me to have four premium models of the blueness in the form of classes 08, 31, 43, 50. I'd make that 3rd place after Bachmann / Heljan; Dapol have 2 or rather 1.5 (since the class 22  barely made it into blue) and there were no 'other players' for some years following the Hobbyco/Vitrain (also 2) evaporation from the UK market?

 

 

Then again, Bachmann and Heljan were 'in possession' of the 37 and 47 respectively, it took Bachmann some time to get their 47 out: and the Hobbyco/Vitrain  competitive entries collapsed swiftly, so perhaps Hornby were smarter in picking up some 'post blue' like the 60 and 67?

 

 

Not 'many' but 2. And that really worked out - not. What are you trying to argue here?

Yep Hornby did just 4 until 2015 (soon to be 6 when the 71 and 87 are added) premium blue classes out of how many? Bachmann and Heljan were in double figures by then so one would have expected the number 1 train producer to be up there with them. Dapol started late and have at least 3 (52, 22 and 73).

The comment on ViTrains refers to its European scene.

[Ozexpatriate]

You make a good point about buying the P rather than the Merchant Navy. If Hornby had announced the P rather than Hattons, and sales came at the expense of sales of other locos (which have been in the range long enough to pay off their development costs), rather than as new sales, even if a new model sells well, Hornby might have made less money than they would have done had they not brought it out! Long-term, the Trade as a whole needs to grow the market, and that means more entry/mid-level affordable models.

Let's not forget that the Hornby SECR H class is due in October/November and the Hattons SECR P class is due in January, we've just heard about the H class for a lot longer.

 

For someone to say their annual budget is now spoken for with the P class is a bit strange to me. I would have thought that, presuming they are a SECR/SR fan, that money would already be slated for the H class - unless of course people budget for these things on a strictly annual basis. I think we should be careful of some false equivalencies here.

[RJS1977]

Point is though that with model prices rising faster than wages (and other thing like increased rent etc digging into disposable income), there is a limit to how many models people can buy. As long as there is a static (or more likely declining) number of active purchasers in the hobby, the number of sales is also limited. Which is why Hornby (and the other manufacturers - not just of rolling stock, but all the other suppliers too) need the hobby to grow, and that means making it more affordable.

[Bernard Lamb]

I'm not sure the P2 and the Crosti 9F are really suitable for Railroad - nobody under the age of about 60 has seen a Crosti 9F, and as for the P2....

 

 

 

They do seem questionable choices.

How much extra revenue was generated by two versions of the P2 I do not know. Keen pricing of one model would as I see it have produced a better result.

As for the Crosti. I would have though any modeller who wanted one would hack a Bachmann and the casual demand I see as being very limited.

As for Railroad in general I fear it smacks of desperation. Protection of the brand name would be better without a lower level range bearing the Hornby name.

Having the name of Lima in their portfolio that was associated with good basic shape but crap performance it might have been a better idea to have used that.

Bernard

[Crantock]

The wonder of Hornby is that as the thread wanders, they always bring it back with another announcement.  New CEO.

 

11^th September 2017

 

Directorate change

 

Hornby Plc, the international models and collectibles group, today announces that following the increase in Phoenix UK Fund's stake in the business the Group's strategy is under review. As a result, it has been mutually agreed that Steve Cooke will step down as CEO at a date to be agreed. Steve will remain as CEO for a transitional period and an announcement will be made concerning a new CEO in due course. Steve joined the business as CFO in June 2015 and stepped up to the CEO role in April 2016.

 

David Adams, Interim Chairman, commented.

 

"The position of Phoenix as Hornby's majority shareholder represents a new chapter in the development of the Group and the Board is working closely with Phoenix to set the direction of the business going forward. The Board would like to thank Steve Cooke for his huge contribution to the Group, in particular his leadership of the first stage of the turnaround that was announced to the market last year. We are delighted that Steve has agreed to remain in the post and effect an orderly transition to the appointment of the new CEO."

 

http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/Hornby/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1477&newsid=923759

 

Which is a bit worrying as to what the latest new strategy is.

[JSpencer]

Let's not forget that the Hornby SECR H class is due in October/November and the Hattons SECR P class is due in January, we've just heard about the H class for a lot longer.

 

For someone to say their annual budget is now spoken for with the P class is a bit strange to me. I would have thought that, presuming they are a SECR/SR fan, that money would already be slated for the H class - unless of course people budget for these things on a strictly annual basis. I think we should be careful of some false equivalencies here.

H class is slated on my 2017 budget (3 models) with birdcages. The P class eats into 2018 budget probably before 2018 arrives. I can afford anything they throw at us (I can afford to tool up one entire class if I wished but not in this saturated market) but model trains is just one small part of my life. So yes I will splash out cir £600 when they arrive and stop there. Of course if Hornby announce a D well, I guess 2019 will be spent early too!

[Coryton]

 Perhaps not the P, but I think the Barclay would have made a good 'Junior' loco (though note I am *not* advocating fitting it with a Scalextric motor).

 

Although I've not seen anything official on this, it's clear that the Railroad 0-4-0s now come with a much slower motor - the top speed is far less ludicrous. 

[Coryton]

They do seem questionable choices.

How much extra revenue was generated by two versions of the P2 I do not know. Keen pricing of one model would as I see it have produced a better result.

As for the Crosti. I would have though any modeller who wanted one would hack a Bachmann and the casual demand I see as being very limited.

As for Railroad in general I fear it smacks of desperation. Protection of the brand name would be better without a lower level range bearing the Hornby name.

Having the name of Lima in their portfolio that was associated with good basic shape but crap performance it might have been a better idea to have used that.

Bernard

 

I think removing the Hornby name from the 'train set' end of the market would be a very bad move.

[Mike Storey]

Point is though that with model prices rising faster than wages (and other thing like increased rent etc digging into disposable income), there is a limit to how many models people can buy. As long as there is a static (or more likely declining) number of active purchasers in the hobby, the number of sales is also limited. Which is why Hornby (and the other manufacturers - not just of rolling stock, but all the other suppliers too) need the hobby to grow, and that means making it more affordable.Kernow have

 

That is a valid argument. But in the short to medium term, the weakness of the pound, the increase in real costs in China and the lack of home production investment, suggests the only way forward for that strategy is to revert to low spec models. RailRoad is a range accused of unclear strategy and a confusing mix of models, both in prototype and in quality, and in reality, the combination of old tooling and the haphazard Design Clever approach, does not appear to have sufficiently bridged the gap in affordable models. It is thus probable that significant new investment would be needed to go down that road in a major way. But there is no obvious market - price alone will not necessarily make people buy model railways. Piko's attempt to test this market in Europe is an interesting trial.

 

The evidence for short term, improved ROI tends towards high spec, high price products, which almost all appear to sell out PDQ, once available. However, even this is no sure route to success, even by crowdsourcing or pre-payment. One only has to read Dave Jones' experiences to see that, plus Oxford's attempted new player bid. Sutton (under its other name) found cooperation with a major player ended in tears (Class 33 - a much regretted, missed opportunity to bring out a mass model to the standards of their later, go-it-alone Class 24), and FTG lost money on its first attempt at direct procurement, perhaps by pricing too low and being very honourable in sticking to that until his first model rights were sold on to Kernow, who ramped up the prices but also expanded the product. Kernow use Dave Jones to manage the process of direct procurement, as have others, and Rapido are acting in that capacity for most of their UK output plans. That Hatton appear to have entered this market, without any declared ex-production specialist help (or perhaps it is just a secret), is a gamble but they, presumably, have the resources and retailing clout to see it through.

 

Hornby, most of all, despite their recent financial history, have the muscle, the experience and the skills to go down that road. It remains to be seen if Phoenix see it that way.

[MikeParkin65]

Point is though that with model prices rising faster than wages (and other thing like increased rent etc digging into disposable income), there is a limit to how many models people can buy. As long as there is a static (or more likely declining) number of active purchasers in the hobby, the number of sales is also limited. Which is why Hornby (and the other manufacturers - not just of rolling stock, but all the other suppliers too) need the hobby to grow, and that means making it more affordable.

Agree. I'm in the market for the new Duchess but with the price being north of £150 I will limit myself to 46256 and retain the 4 versions of the previous model which scrub up well with a little detailing. Likewise I would have purchased the Bachmann Stanier mogul but decided instead to invest in Brassmasters detailing kits for my already purchased Black 5's. So whilst 'the hobby' is still growing for me, my money is being spent with small parts suppliers rather than Hornby and Bachmann.  I am pretty well stocked (pun intended) with loco's and rolling stock purchased over the last 10 years so whilst I am interested in the odd one off I think the majority of my 'investment' is complete. 

[JSpencer]

I'm not sure the P2 and the Crosti 9F are really suitable for Railroad - nobody under the age of about 60 has seen a Crosti 9F, and as for the P2....

 

You make a good point about buying the P rather than the Merchant Navy. If Hornby had announced the P rather than Hattons, and sales came at the expense of sales of other locos (which have been in the range long enough to pay off their development costs), rather than as new sales, even if a new model sells well, Hornby might have made less money than they would have done had they not brought it out! Long-term, the Trade as a whole needs to grow the market, and that means more entry/mid-level affordable models.

I never seen a P2, but as a kid they were legendary for me like a W1, and despite my interests being primary South Eastern, I was taken in by LNER stock. So much I like these fantastic prototypes, I built a P2 in kit form and later (about 20 years later) brought Hornby's. Kids maybe no longer read the books that I read, so perhaps your point of never seeing one, not even in a book justifies your comment. That said 2 brand new P2s are expecting to hit mainline railways in the next few/several years so youngsters may see one yet.

The crosti is another odd ball I read about when I was little. Never really on my of wants list but I still brought one.

As a child I remember reading stories about Turbomotive, the great bear and other greats. Mind you as a kid, I watched John Wayne and Clint Eastwood cowboy films too. My son and his friends have never seen them, cannot understand why we would want to watch them. The new generations really are very different in taste to what we were.

Edited September 12, 2017 by JSpencer

[RJS1977]

Although I've not seen anything official on this, it's clear that the Railroad 0-4-0s now come with a much slower motor - the top speed is far less ludicrous. 

 

Fair point - I replaced the chassis in my (Margate) 101 tank a few years back after the gears stripped, and it's certainly a better runner than it used to be.

[adb968008]

On the P2.. i dont the story is finished there yet.. when you look at the Service sheet.. the chassis weight is curved to the angle of a streamlined smoke box, which the existing release doesn't have. The smokebox itself is a separate tool to the boiler (as I discovered when it came off).

 

Similar too, the Star looks like it has clues to fitting Hall cylinders, bogies and front end tooling marks. If Hornby do a Saint from the star chassis and a Manor from the Grange chassis as starting points, and an upgrade of the County, they would be pretty much accessing tooling bits they have already (chassis, cylinders, wheels, tender, cabs etc) for much if it bar the body.. just sort out the paint and they could own the GWR market for not a massive sum... within a few years both a County and a Star will enter service as new builds, plenty of people have been requesting a Manor from Bachmann for years but it's a bit of an odd one out in Bachmanns toolset and would really be a start from scratch bar the tender.

 

Long term a P2 isn't a bad investment.. someday 2007 may have as bigger crowded as Tornado did when it was new.

 

The Crosti was a niche one, it's on its unique chassis too, that isn't compatible to the current 9f either, i wonder if this was initially thought to be a main range item, that got paired back in detail during the design, after all the new chassis is ok, better than the railroad one, and they have the super detail tenders available from the Britannias and 4MT ? Maybe some day they might bring it up to full super detail, but it's reception has Been well received, there hasn't been much discounting and by all accounts a success...more like this in a recession brings upgrade potential in the future, the new Mk1's FO/BSO is of note too...if only they hadn't dropped lights.

Edited September 12, 2017 by adb968008

[Finsbury]

I reckon that China wants it's Dollar now. If we are discussing incoming models/exactitude/pricing etc, then there is a shock on the way. A massive resurgence for kit building very soon, not that they are cheap, so maybe scratchbuilding will come to the fore? (again!). However unfortunate, a dearth of 'modellers' along with rtr expense wil only lead to a further decline in the hobby.

 

edited for spelligns.

Edited September 12, 2017 by Finsbury