"We need to kick-start HS3"!

[Reorte]

No reason why direct services such as this should not continue, possibly with open access operators. Indeed, they have to or HS2 will become overcrowded. They might be a bit less frequent or run as shorter trains.

Because unless the price is the same the majority of passengers will head for the slower but cheaper train (unless the slower ones get a lot slower by stopping at every possible station).

[pete_mcfarlane]

Because unless the price is the same the majority of passengers will head for the slower but cheaper train (unless the slower ones get a lot slower by stopping at every possible station).

But if you're the DfT, you get to control the tickets prices and specify the timetables. So both can be adjusted to ensure that passengers use HS2 where possible and don't overcrowd the non-HS2 services.  

 

I'm pretty certain they've thought of this. 

[Joseph_Pestell]

But if you're the DfT, you get to control the tickets prices and specify the timetables. So both can be adjusted to ensure that passengers use HS2 where possible and don't overcrowd the non-HS2 services.  

 

I'm pretty certain they've thought of this. 

Never be sure of anything. They are not called DafT for nothing.

 

But we have gone OT. This is an HS3 thread and HS3 will be a very different animal from HS2 even if both are mainly about creating more capacity.

[Glorious NSE]

The idea behind high speed in the UK seems to be to stop intercity on existing lines ie WCML  EC  this will take choice away and will not be good now you can travel Milton Keynes Glasgow Edinburgh Liverpool direct but not in the future.This is written down by HS2 and will not be progress and having to take a surburban unit to a link station on HS2 is not good and will lose passengers who are going to be treated like second class citizens.

Can you expand on "This is written down by HS2"? Exactly what is written, and where?

 

I can't see that all existing Intercity services will cease - there will be change, for sure. To not change at all would result in massive overcapacity in some places, not getting the intended gains in capacity in others, and total gridlock in other places. It'd be chaos.

 

But you still need some trains running on the existing routes, as capacity on those routes is the whole point of building it. 

 

For instance? Manchester currently has 3x trains to Euston an hour. When HS2 starts running to Manchester you won't need 3x trains per hour running by the existing routes, but you will still need to connect Milton Keynes, Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport etc to both end points of the route. HS2 won't do that, you do still have a market for that, so you will run a train that does do that.

 

You just don't need to have 3 trains an hour doing that like you do at present, they might be slightly slower overall (but provide better connectivity than todays skip-stopping service, try Milton Keynes to Macclesfield with todays service!) as they may stop a couple more times, they also won't be full of folk going between Manchester to London...

 

The whole point of HS2 is to provide better connections to places like Milton Keynes, why the heck would you assume they will provide better connections by cutting all the trains!   

 

Honestly, what's the problem here? 

[TheSignalEngineer]

All this talk of HS2/HS3 and the like will be F-All use to us in about 3 years time when most of the country bus services disappear due to the removal of all financial support. We won't be able to get to the stations without using a car and there isn't anywhere to park so the only choice is to stay in the traffic jam and forget the train.

[rockershovel]

Anyway, why would something supposedly as high-tech as HS2, 3 or any other number have anything as old-fashioned as a kickstart? Or is it a reference to the current practice if, in effect, asking for free money with little or no return?

Edited March 25, 2016 by rockershovel

[lmsforever]

When HS2 was first spawned I remember reading a note in a magazine that the current express services on normal lines will be replaced with slower connecting ones made up of emu,s dmu,s .This was also stated to me at a roadshow I queried this I was told that when HS2 was built everyone would be using it regardless just look what they are going to do to Euston who will be second class services? No HS2 is badly planned by people who lie to everyone and spend money like water that should be spent elsewhere.

[Fenman]

Because unless the price is the same the majority of passengers will head for the slower but cheaper train (unless the slower ones get a lot slower by stopping at every possible station).

 

But where that option exists now (or, at least, where I know of it), the overwhelming majority of passengers take the faster train, not the cheaper one - see, eg, SWT's expensive but fast Southampton-London trains versus Southern's slower and much cheaper trains (which go to Victoria rather than Waterloo - which is also probably more convenient for most passengers).

 

Or see the crowds getting onto Heathrow Express rather than the slower Heathrow Connect service. Quite who earns £15 every 10 minutes (the cost versus time saving) is beyond me, but I imagine it is just a fraction of those who chose the expensive option.

 

Do you have other routes in mind where people choose slower but cheaper?

 

Paul

[jjb1970]

I deliberately commute using a slower option. I live an equal distance from Milton Keynes Central and Bletchley (or as near as makes no difference equal). If I commute from MK Central I can use Virgin services which are faster however if I go from Bletchley the season ticket is significantly cheaper and the express London Midland services which only stop once or twice after Bletchley offer a journey time which isn't that much slower (admittedly it is a slightly shorter distance seeing as Bletchley is a bit nearer to Euston). In my case the difference in travelling time is small enough and the cost difference large enough that it makes sense.

[ess1uk]

Peterborough to KX.

Slower and cheaper gives you a seat too

But where that option exists now (or, at least, where I know of it), the overwhelming majority of passengers take the faster train, not the cheaper one - see, eg, SWT's expensive but fast Southampton-London trains versus Southern's slower and much cheaper trains (which go to Victoria rather than Waterloo - which is also probably more convenient for most passengers).

 

Or see the crowds getting onto Heathrow Express rather than the slower Heathrow Connect service. Quite who earns £15 every 10 minutes (the cost versus time saving) is beyond me, but I imagine it is just a fraction of those who chose the expensive option.

 

Do you have other routes in mind where people choose slower but cheaper?

 

Paul

[Reorte]

But where that option exists now (or, at least, where I know of it), the overwhelming majority of passengers take the faster train, not the cheaper one - see, eg, SWT's expensive but fast Southampton-London trains versus Southern's slower and much cheaper trains (which go to Victoria rather than Waterloo - which is also probably more convenient for most passengers).

 

Or see the crowds getting onto Heathrow Express rather than the slower Heathrow Connect service. Quite who earns £15 every 10 minutes (the cost versus time saving) is beyond me, but I imagine it is just a fraction of those who chose the expensive option.

 

Do you have other routes in mind where people choose slower but cheaper?

Which ones come up first when you put a journey into a ticket selling website? If the slower train is much cheaper and ends up somewhere more convenient then I'm very, very surprised that it's much less used, unless it really is a very significant amount slower (e.g. stops at every station on a wandering route vs few / no intermediate stops) or there's something else at play. If it takes a bit of digging to find the cheaper and slower ticket I'd be less surprised. The publicity and prominence of any high speed routes is such that people are more likely to be aware of alternatives.

[rockershovel]

Peterborough to KX.

Slower and cheaper gives you a seat too

Providing you aren't travelling on an Off Peak Return. First eligible train is a Virgin one, the last eligible train (16:40 from Kings X) is one of the electrics but it is abominably crowded and VERY slow.

[Fenman]

Which ones come up first when you put a journey into a ticket selling website? If the slower train is much cheaper and ends up somewhere more convenient then I'm very, very surprised that it's much less used, unless it really is a very significant amount slower (e.g. stops at every station on a wandering route vs few / no intermediate stops) or there's something else at play. If it takes a bit of digging to find the cheaper and slower ticket I'd be less surprised. The publicity and prominence of any high speed routes is such that people are more likely to be aware of alternatives.

Hm.... So you don't actually have any, you know, facts or evidence, just an assertion that the world will be how you see it?

 

Let me be absolutely clear - in the actual, real examples I gave, I wrote of the behaviour of the "majority" of people. There are exceptions (and I am one - often choosing the slow Chiltern services out of Marylebone, and the LM services out of Euston, both rather than Virgin alternatives).

 

But *most* people don't do that. Hence the actual number of tickets sold - which you can check for yourself.

 

If you have now given up on your original assertion and are instead arguing that the method of ticket sales favours the fast/expensive (but people would otherwise choose the cheapest), then I simply fail to see why the operators wouldn't continue with the existing policy when HS2 comes into existence. The result will likely be the same.

 

Interestingly, people's behaviour seems different with air travel where the rise of low-cost carriers shows there is a market for flights advertised as very much cheaper (the fact that they often aren't cheaper doesn't seem to bother people so much).

 

People are marvellously complicated, aren't we?

 

Paul

[billbedford]

Which ones come up first when you put a journey into a ticket selling website? If the slower train is much cheaper and ends up somewhere more convenient then I'm very, very surprised that it's much less used, unless it really is a very significant amount slower (e.g. stops at every station on a wandering route vs few / no intermediate stops) or there's something else at play. If it takes a bit of digging to find the cheaper and slower ticket I'd be less surprised. The publicity and prominence of any high speed routes is such that people are more likely to be aware of alternatives.

 

 

Without the use of filters, trains come up in time order. There are filters for fastest, cheapest, least changes etc.

[Glorious NSE]

When HS2 was first spawned I remember reading a note in a magazine that the current express services on normal lines will be replaced with slower connecting ones made up of emu,s dmu,s .This was also stated to me at a roadshow I queried this I was told that when HS2 was built everyone would be using it regardless just look what they are going to do to Euston who will be second class services? No HS2 is badly planned by people who lie to everyone and spend money like water that should be spent elsewhere.

But that's not a lie, HS2 will remove ***a lot of*** current fast services, which can be replaced by a better stopping service for the intermediate places, or more freight capacity, but there's no way it can replace ***all*** the current Virgin service, its not designed to do that.

 

And I don't understand the comment about Euston?

[Reorte]

Hm.... So you don't actually have any, you know, facts or evidence, just an assertion that the world will be how you see it?

 

What a charming, polite reply.

 

What I have is a hypothesis based on the observation that cheap is often popular, to the point where if it isn't there could be some other factor at play, such as the ease of finding the tickets, or the slower trains being so much slower that the saving isn't seen as worth it. Since I'm not writing a paper on the subject, just offering an opinion on a website, I was unaware of the requirement for verified, scruntinisable research on everything I say in a conversation, rather than starting at the point of tossing ideas out (which is probably the starting point for most research anyway).

 

Without the use of filters, trains come up in time order. There are filters for fastest, cheapest, least changes etc.

TheTrainLine comes up with "Results are based on end-to-end tickets for the fastest available trains. Click here to check if slower routes with cheaper tickets are available."

Edited March 26, 2016 by Reorte

[Fenman]

What a charming, polite reply.

 

What I have is a hypothesis based on the observation that cheap is often popular, to the point where if it isn't there could be some other factor at play, such as the ease of finding the tickets, or the slower trains being so much slower that the saving isn't seen as worth it. Since I'm not writing a paper on the subject, just offering an opinion on a website, I was unaware of the requirement for verified, scruntinisable research on everything I say in a conversation, rather than starting at the point of tossing ideas out (which is probably the starting point for most research anyway).

 

TheTrainLine comes up with "Results are based on end-to-end tickets for the fastest available trains. Click here to check if slower routes with cheaper tickets are available."

 

Thank you: I do try to be polite (though in my experience charm is often just a polite form of lying).

 

I took your hypothesis and tested it against what we know about actual customer purchasing behaviour. That behaviour did not seem to support your hypothesis - in fact, it seemed to destroy it. Hence me asking if you had any different experiences to support your hypothesis. It appears you have none, but instead just repeated your hypothesis. I'm not sure how that helps advance it, but am always delighted to see new data.

 

The Trainline is interesting data - I wonder what share of the marketplace it has?

 

Paul

[Fenman]

...

 

TheTrainLine comes up with "Results are based on end-to-end tickets for the fastest available trains. Click here to check if slower routes with cheaper tickets are available."

 

Actually, thinking about this, it's really interesting. Wasn't the Trainline originally part-owned by Virgin? And won't the algorithm they have chosen lead, I'm sure coincidentally, to Virgin's train services tending to be listed before those of any other operator? Fascinating.

 

Paul

[Reorte]

Thank you: I do try to be polite (though in my experience charm is often just a polite form of lying).

Just being neutral is usually sufficient.

I took your hypothesis and tested it against what we know about actual customer purchasing behaviour. That behaviour did not seem to support your hypothesis - in fact, it seemed to destroy it. Hence me asking if you had any different experiences to support your hypothesis. It appears you have none, but instead just repeated your hypothesis. I'm not sure how that helps advance it, but am always delighted to see new data.

That's why I'm wondering what other factors might be at work. I still see no reason to assume that my hypothesis is wrong, and that there might instead be other factors involved (and that there is of course a limit). If everything else is equal do you not agree that people will mostly pick the cheaper option? Obviously things aren't equal here, so which factor is making people choose the more expensive train? "It's faster" is a possibility but not one I'm persuaded about, since it seems to contradict my general day-to-day experience of how people behave. I appreciate that that general feel about what people do is hardly scientific but that's no reason to dismiss it either (such experience is the sort of thing we rely on to get through our a lot of our lives).

 

The Trainline is interesting data - I wonder what share of the marketplace it has?

A quick Google gives "The company, which has a 38 per cent share of the online travel market in the UK", so not insignificant.

 

Seeing your other post (popped up whilst I was writing this), I think so. I might have a quick dig to see what it says for some routes here Virgin have direct competition.

 

edit: Preston to Carlisle, in order of time whoever the provider is, prices the same (didn't check for advance tickets though), times only vary by a few minutes (1hr 5m to 1hr 12m). Birmingham to London both Euston and Marleybone showed up. The standard off peak single is the same on both, with both routes having various others that are sometimes cheaper on one and sometimes on the other (Euston with another one labelled as "off-peak single" too at half the standard price. WHat Trainline came up with as "cheapest standard single" slightly favours Marleybone (£28.90 vs. £33) but with advance ones on offer for £15.50 for Euston, but that was a London MIdland service that's even slower.

Edited March 26, 2016 by Reorte

[billbedford]

TheTrainLine comes up with "Results are based on end-to-end tickets for the fastest available trains. Click here to check if slower routes with cheaper tickets are available."

 

 

In small letter at the bottom of the page. When I use Tramline I find that the cheapest journeys are highlighted.

[rockershovel]

I do find that ticketing websites are generally considerably easier to use than they were, two or three years ago.

[peanuts]

the sectio stalybridge to Diglle is severley restricted due to the curvature of the line ironicaly the much straighter rout via micklehurst on the other side of the valley would of been able to take a lot higher speeds but any hope of reinstating four lines by bringing this route back is gone all the bridges and viaducts were demolished in the mid seventies two off the tunnels have been filled plus there has been extensive housing development with more to come  not to mention the swimming pool and sports center built on the trackbed at uppermill . much of the embankments along the route have been leveled so would take a huge amount of money time and effort to re instate . four tracks from just short of Digglel through standage to Huddersfield however is feasible so this bottle neck will remain 

[Joseph_Pestell]

All this talk of HS2/HS3 and the like will be F-All use to us in about 3 years time when most of the country bus services disappear due to the removal of all financial support. We won't be able to get to the stations without using a car and there isn't anywhere to park so the only choice is to stay in the traffic jam and forget the train.

 

But isn't that already the case in most rural areas even with existing bus subsidy? I can take a bus from the end of my road to the local station, Gillingham, very convenient. But by the time I get back to Gillingham, the last bus has long gone (about 6pm). So I don't use the bus and the subsidy is wasted.

[AMJ]

With the talk in today's budget HS3 would appear to be getting the green light. I just wonder if this idea will happen before HS2 becomes a reality up here in the North.

[Glorious NSE]

With the talk in today's budget HS3 would appear to be getting the green light. I just wonder if this idea will happen before HS2 becomes a reality up here in the North.

 

Given that it might well involve using HS2 in places, i'm not sure that'd help?