model train collection to fetch £150,000 !

[Dungrange]

An impressive figure but to paraphrase a frequent debate here, what did the collection cost to assemble? I.e. Has there been any genuine price appreciation?

 

I've no idea what it cost to assemble, but clearly a six figure sum.  Given that it was assembled over 35 years, after adjusting for general price inflation, I very much doubt that there would have been any price appreciation over cost for the collection as a whole, although there was probably some price appreciation on certain specific items.  Is collecting model railway rolling stock a good investment?  Probably not, but hopefully it was an enjoyable hobby for the deceased and the difference between the original cost and what is realised by the sale (which is what his collecting hobby actually cost) is probably less than some other hobbies would have cost.

[The Stationmaster]

Actually the auctioneers take double that because they also charge the seller 17.5%, although they may do concessionary rates for high value items.

 

Brian

 

The executors were well and truly rolled over if they paid that much for what was clearly going to be a real feather in the cap of the auctioneers.  There was a collection of large scale stuff that was sold in the Newbury area a couple of years back and I know one auction house who were keen to get it went in offering 5% seller's commission.  And they didn't get it - the ones who did got it because they offered a zero rate of commission (which also meant there there was no VAT on the sellers commission) and they made their money on the 20%+ buyer's commission.

 

The big auction houses are undoubtedly the worst when it comes to commission rates with 25%  being far from unusual but there are still some who offer good deals and the ones who have any sense are holding their rates down in order to get business - my pal has held his buyer's rate at 17.5% and his seller's rates are all individually negotiated but to help cover rising costs he has now added a £2 lotting fee.

An impressive figure but to paraphrase a frequent debate here, what did the collection cost to assemble? I.e. Has there been any genuine price appreciation?

 

Very variable - in some cases what stuff sold for was well below the current new purchase price and in many cases was below what had been paid for the stuff however I reckon some things showed an overall profit (not that the chap is alive to enjoy it of course).  But in total I bet it probably cost him more and if you factor in inflation rates etc it would look even worse.

[Horsetan]

....in some cases what stuff sold for was well below the current new purchase price and in many cases was below what had been paid for the stuff .....

The best example of this was the batch of HAG engines. HAG are a bit like the Swiss equivalent of Wrenn - traditional, robust engineering that just goes on and on and on, with incremental improvements over the years (I've seen glaciers move faster). Their locomotives have generally been priced new at £300+ each for some years - their Re460s are about £350 each.

 

The Adler Estate auction had a number of HAG engines bundled together in twos and threes, which may have put some people off, but when you break the winning bids down into units, it works out at around £100 to £120 per engine. For anyone who covets a HAG locomotive, this would surely have been the steal of the decade.

[gismorail]

The best example of this was the batch of HAG engines. HAG are a bit like the Swiss equivalent of Wrenn - traditional, robust engineering that just goes on and on and on, with incremental improvements over the years (I've seen glaciers move faster). Their locomotives have generally been priced new at £300+ each for some years - their Re460s are about £350 each.

 

The Adler Estate auction had a number of HAG engines bundled together in twos and threes, which may have put some people off, but when you break the winning bids down into units, it works out at around £100 to £120 per engine. For anyone who covets a HAG locomotive, this would surely have been the steal of the decade.

Your correct about these logos run like a Swiss watch and go forever. From what I have seen of a lot of the items are brand new and never been run before

[Horsetan]

Your correct about these locos run like a Swiss watch and go forever. From what I have seen of a lot of the items are brand new and never been run before

 

....and hence even more of a steal. My late friend - for reasons best known to himself - built up a collection of 60 HAG Re460s in the various advertising liveries, all of them bought new. That's about 18 grands' worth 

[Allegheny1600]

Well,

It has been an interesting couple of days, that's for sure!

Unfortunately I didn't know about this thread before (thanks Mike SM). Anyway, I bid seriously on a few auctions, one on behalf of a mate of mine and we lost out to utterly ridiculous bidding - it was crazy!

I don't mind losing out to another collector/modeller who has a few bob more than me, that's fine but it really irks me if it's one of the usual charlatans (Gostude, Mr Sud, Rails etc.) who then try and sell it for a profit! It's ridiculous, it really is.

The stuff I bid on, I bid a comparable price to what the initial cost of buying from Europe would be, now how the heck can anyone pay all the additional fees and still make a profit? I've certainly seen some stuff already turning up on the Sheffield merchants ebay listings.

I hope they get stuck with it forever, I really do!

John.

 

PS I suppose some will think this is sour grapes from me - well I did get one particularly juicy item but I'm not going to say what! Sufficient to say that if I were to sell it on ebay.DE, I would triple my money! So, no sour grapes, just amazement at some people's greed.

[Horsetan]

.....I hope they get stuck with it forever, I really do!...

 

Looking at some of Gosturd's stock, it certainly looks like he's been stuck with it forever...

[Bernard Lamb]

Looking at some of Gosturd's stock, it certainly looks like he's been stuck with it forever...

I don't see that problem going away. I see the situation becoming much more worse.

The current generation who are 70-80 years old, that includes me, probably represent the peak interest group in respect of model railways.

They can remember steam and even the last remnants of the Big 4. I can just remember green engines going to Southend.

This group also benefit from probably the highest disposable retirement income and also the biggest free available space. Smaller houses are now the norm and jobs for life with 2/3 salary plus inflation proof pensions are long gone.

In ten years or so we will mostly be gone, or not so able to model or collect and the market will be flooded as our children get rid of what has been squirreled away. Now is probably a good time to sell before the rush. One of the experts on the box predicts the price of name plates crashing. I can see the market for models heading the same way.

In other fields this is already happening. I am typing this sitting at a very nice oak table. A few years ago it would have fetched at least £1k but today I would be lucky to gat £150 for it. The same goes for china and glass. There is little interest now in much of it. Ironically a mug from Woolworths circa 1960 will fetch more than a Wedgewood cup and saucer if it is the right pattern. A similar situation with the auction, where Hag went for next to nothing and old DDR stuff made far more than it sold for when new.

As others have mentioned it did look like an easy day for the auctioneer. I did not have sound or vision but just watching the bids they seemed to increase rapidly with no prompting or encouragement from the rostrum. I have seen auctioneers push the room for a half the amount of increase bid to push the price up and to encourage an earlier bidder back into the fray. There seemed to be no need for that at this sale.

Bernard

[Horsetan]

I don't see that problem going away.

When it's Gosturd's time to go, I wonder what his Estate will be valued at.....?   

 

 

.....just watching the bids they seemed to increase rapidly with no prompting or encouragement from the rostrum. I have seen auctioneers push the room for a half the amount of increase bid to push the price up and to encourage an earlier bidder back into the fray. There seemed to be no need for that at this sale.

 

Part of that would have been internet-generated, hence no prompting needed.

[The Stationmaster]

I think we need to take a wider view when looking at auctions like this, unfortunate or disconcerting (for us) that it might be.

 

1.  All sorts of collecting, including antiques etc, tends to go in phases with things coming into and going out of fashion for whatever reason and this impacts on prices,  I doubt that will ever change - thus at one time 'brown' furniture was in, currently it's out in terms of auction prices;  a good while back blue & white china was in - then when someone died the bottom fell out of the market;  Hornby Dublo prices have been up, then down, and then back up again.

 

2. The collecting market is also influenced by price - if something is going cheap collectors (inveterate collectors that is) tend to get into it because prices are low - an example here is with SS Titanic ephemera etc where the high prices have put off the less well-heeled and newcomers.  Thus they gravitated elsewhere with Lusitania ephemera suddenly coming into, and growing, in fashion and associated prices rising.

 

3.  These swings and fads also affect the model railway market but there there are also other factors in play.  The most important of these is the duty of the auctioneer to sell, for the best achievable price, whatever he accepts for sale.  This means that items will be lotted with that aim and no other in mind and also that if there are items considered unsellable they will be mixed with good stuff in order to get rid of them - that latter is incidentally a technique which is not limited to model railway items and I have used it with considerable success when getting rid of ephemera.  But it has a  knock-on effect on model railway sales because it can mean you finish up with stuff you don't want and unless you buy as a collective or with a view to selling on what you don't want such lots tend to appeal to dealers.

 

4.  Auctioneers in this sort of business are usually happy to have dealers bidding because it means they can usually clear their sales - or go a long way towards that.  I have seen model railway dealers - including Ivan's 'best friend' mentioned above - spend £10,000 upwards at auctions on fairly ordinary stuff where their main competition was other dealers.  On one occasion I even had the wicked pleasure of forcing one of them to pay more than twice what he wanted to for a particular lot which although i wanted part of it the rest would have been a nuisance to advertise and sell on - but he still made a lot of money out of it.  But it is where 'ordinary' modellers can lose out because of the problem of not wanting to have to bother with getting rid of the surplus.

 

5.  But on simpler, single item or just a couple of things the serious private individual buyer will always beat the dealer.  I have a lot of GWR ephemera - mainly bought for reference purposes - where I could easily beat dealers into the ground when bidding because I didn't need to worry about a profit margin or having to cover the cost of what I was spending.  But it was a different matter when bidding for some Carriage Working notices where I was up against another private buyer (bidding on behalf of the GWS as it happened) where it became a simple bidding battle with no profit margin for either of us to think about but just how much we were prepared to spend to get the lot.  The same undoubtedly applied in this auction where some lots simply weren't dealer fodder and it was just ordinary bidders up against each other and it was, again, just a matter of who was prepared to keep bidding the longest/highest.

 

6. But there is no doubt in my mind, as in other fields, that some dealers are just plain greedy and some will even go so far as to buy stuff they don't actually want in order to stop someone else (including ordinary individuals) buying it and whether they really want or need it or not.

 

7.  At this auction the bids shown on the screen were sometimes rather different from what was happening in the room and there were a number of lots where the auctioneer was very definitely earning his percentage.  But, as ever, there was idiot bidding on the 'net - possibly because they couldn't hear or simply couldn't get the way the room was going - where they started bidding too high and too soon.  As I've said before, and will always maintain - internet bidding is great if you are selling but it's a downright nuisance if you are buying!

[Coryton]

 

6. But there is no doubt in my mind, as in other fields, that some dealers are just plain greedy and some will even go so far as to buy stuff they don't actually want in order to stop someone else (including ordinary individuals) buying it and whether they really want or need it or not.

 

 

Why would someone do that?

 

My problem with auctions is that if I win it means that nobody else was prepared to pay that much, which leaves me wondering if I paid too much...

[The Stationmaster]

Why would someone do that?

 

My problem with auctions is that if I win it means that nobody else was prepared to pay that much, which leaves me wondering if I paid too much...

 

I have seen collectors bid up in order to stop someone else getting a particular lot (an early Hornby Dublo 0-6-2T in one case where a bidder shouted 'he's not having that' and promptly upped the bidding to go beyond what the other chap was prepared to pay).  At one auction a dealer purposely bought all the Hornby 0 gauge Princess Elisabeths simply to stop modellers getting the poorer condition ones after he'd bought all the decent ones - fortunately one of the modellers who was eventually left with only one with a grotty repaint job to bid for made the rather nasty individual pay for his attitude by pushing up over £500 for something which was probably worth not more than £100;  that day the dealer paid out more than £20,000 for various 0 gauge locos including several handbuilt and kitbuilt examples.

 

 The good thing about bidding in the room is that you can very often judge how far people are prepared to go.  I know one chap who in fact stopped going to auctions and changed over to bidding on the 'net because he latched on that people were purposely pushing him up on bidding and whatever he finished up paying for a lot - that wasn't for model railway stuff incidentally.  But I wouldn't be surprised if it did go on at some model railway auctions and lots of folk think it's more than fair game to purposely bid up against dealers with no intention of buying (unless they get landed with a winning bid when they misjudge things, oops).

 

If you win a lot in an auction all it means is that you were prepared to go one bid more than the under bidder (and he/she might have been prepared to pay the same as you if you'd bid in a different order and they'd had the winning bid).  The think to always remember is that any auction lot, whatever sort of auction it is, is worth what the winning bidder is prepared to pay for it.   All you need to do is set your limit on a lot before the bidding starts and go no further than what you think it is worth to you.   I have missed out on things, especially postcards, because what I was prepared to pay wasn't as much as the winning bidder paid, even if it was only by one bid.

[Bernard Lamb]

Why would someone do that?

There are people who will pay over the odds just to get some thing in general business as well as at auctions.

I know cases in steel stockholding where particular batches of steel, mainly sections or tubes, but including coil, were bought up just to corner the market with no available purchaser. Keep it quiet, but even government departments have indulged in the practice. This was at the time of shortages and imminent price rises. They did make a big profit eventually.

Bernard

[Enterprisingwestern]

....and hence even more of a steal. My late friend - for reasons best known to himself - built up a collection of 60 HAG Re460s in the various advertising liveries, all of them bought new. That's about 18 grands' worth 

 

Worth all of 6 grand now!

A bit like people who collect Portescaps!

 

Mike.

[Horsetan]

Worth all of 6 grand now!

A bit like people who collect Portescaps!

.

Worth as much as the opinion of a British ex-pat in Spain

[Dungrange]

Not bad for two days work!

 

Mike.

 

Of course it's actually more than two days work, since the commission doesn't just include the two days of selling, but also the days spent dividing the stock into lots, making up the catalogue etc.  The two sale days are where a lot of earlier costs are recovered.  But it does look like it was probably a profitable commission for the auctioneer.

[Nigel Emery]

I think it is safe to say that the Executors of the Adler Estate are reasonably pleased.

I was chatting to the auctioner at the viewing on Sunday who told me the proceeds would be going to an as yet undecided charity!

[Enterprisingwestern]

Of course it's actually more than two days work, since the commission doesn't just include the two days of selling, but also the days spent dividing the stock into lots, making up the catalogue etc.  The two sale days are where a lot of earlier costs are recovered.  But it does look like it was probably a profitable commission for the auctioneer.

 

Thanks for putting me straight, I hadn't realised that .

 

Mike.