New diesel and petrol vehicles to be banned from 2040 in UK

[LBRJ]

As Henry Ford may have said about his then new technology

 

All the people wanted was faster horses.

[runs as required]

This whole debate seems to be following the classic trajectory ,,,,

OK, all the [trajectory] is very generalised and as with any generalisation it’s all a bit glib. ..

And of course, there is the whole issue of autonomy to consider too, which is another major transition which is upon us.

That was of course the reason for the Luddites - going around smashing driverless white vans.

 

It is a neat summarising but omitted the deceit stage - most recently perpetrated by the volume diesel car makers.

 

dh

Edited July 31, 2017 by runs as required

[jjb1970]

Some might call it poetic justice that it is the emissions fraud that seems to have acted as a catalyst to accelerate the move away from IC engines. Which is slightly unfair as to date the cheating has not been shown to be anything like as far spread as VW tried to claim in their self exculpatory spin (and I mean cheating, as opposed to compliance with regulations which aren't great).

[Ozexpatriate]

When the motor car appeared, there was no pressure on those who used horses to change. Almost all did so because of the advantages of the new technology, but any who wished could have continued to use a horse, for example.

Do you know that for a fact?  Was there not a point where, perhaps not universally, but in large urban areas where horses were eventually banned and the, let's say, dustbin men who cleaned up after the horses would have been discharged? At some point mixed horse and vehicle traffic would have become dangerous, not least for the horses who might spook (and why after all the driving mechanisms of tramway engines are usually covered).

 

I presume that even today there is some provision after a cavalry parade to remove the equine discharge.

[Ozexpatriate]

This whole debate seems to be following the classic trajectory of technological discontinuities:

JJB, I presume you have read Clayton Christensen's "The Innovators Dilemma"?

[APOLLO]

New York West Side Cowboys !!!!

 

(Beware railroad content - and Horses !!!!)

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4253792/New-York-City-cowboys-led-freight-trains-streets.html

 

Brit15

[Ozexpatriate]

As Henry Ford may have said about his then new technology

 

All the people wanted was faster horses.

But he also did say "Any customer can have a car painted any color that he wants so long as it is black."

 

Wikiquote lists the 'faster horses' as misattributed.

[jjb1970]

JJB, I presume you have read Clayton Christensen's "The Innovators Dilemma"?

 

Indeed yes, and this thread motivated me to re-read Albert Churella's book on dieselisation in North America which covers a lot of the same ground. In fact I'm grateful to this thread for that as it is a few years since I last read it and it is a seminal work, I linked it in the book section of RMWeb.

[Ozexpatriate]

New York West Side Cowboys !!!!

 

(Beware railroad content - and Horses !!!!)

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4253792/New-York-City-cowboys-led-freight-trains-streets.html

In my old stomping grounds a man with a flag and a bell was forced to walk ahead of the train, even beyond the end of steam.

 

These are from the 'Gabba fiveways (1960s I would guess). It is said that cricket broadcasts from the 'Gabba were punctuated by the sound of steam whistles from the Wooloongabba* yards across Main Street.

 

* The railways and the PMG apparently differed on the spelling of Woolloongabba.

 

EDIT: One thing that is noteworthy about the New York West Side Cowboys before the high-line was built is to look at the locomotives in the pictures accompanying the article. Notice anything?

 

The difference is the Kaufman Electrification Act of 1923 which banned steam powered locomotives on Manhattan, particularly in the wake of the 1902 Park Avenue tunnel accident on the NYNH&HR.

 

I believe the locomotive is one of these - A New York Central GE/Alco 'three-power'. These were either battery or third-rail powered and a couple were configured for overhead trolley cables. The battery was charged by a diesel engine. I did see a reference to "Class DES".

 

The Kaufman Act did spur innovation the same way the British, French, Dutch and Norwegian decisions to eliminate internal combustion for transport certainly will.

Edited July 31, 2017 by Ozexpatriate

[jjb1970]

On the coercion point I think there are two things to consider:

 

-There is a pretty dominant scientific consensus that global climate change is real. If you don't believe in climate change then IC engines are also associated with lots of atmospheric pollutants (NOx, HC, CO, PM etc) which is not good. And they need oil which tends to come from the less salubrious parts of the world. I'm a small government libertarian but in this case I see a legitimate case for government to regulate emissions reductions (although I think they should leave it to industry to figure out the best way to achieve the reductions)

 

-At the moment there is no coercion. The deadline is 23 years away and customers are already making the transition because they want to.

[jjb1970]

From my book section post:

The talk of driving a stake through the heart of internal combustion engines in cars motivated me to re-read this book, although a few years old it is superb:
 
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Steam-Diesel-Organizational-Capabilities-Twentieth-century-ebook/dp/B001TH8XLG/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1501534110&sr=8-1&keywords=albert+churella

 
The book is more about management and corporate behaviours and managing a technological discontinuity than it is about trains, but it is a well written and insightful book (even if some managementese jargon does creep in) and well worth a read.
 
Albert Churella also wrote a fabulous history of the Pennsylvania Railroad between 1846 and 1917 which is probably the definitive work on the subject:
 
 https://www.amazon.co.uk/Pennsylvania-Railroad-Building-1846-1917-American/dp/081224348X/ref=sr_1_2_twi_har_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1501534110&sr=8-2&keywords=albert+churella
 
I bought it when it was published and have been eagerly awaiting the second volume ever since.

Edited July 31, 2017 by jjb1970

[APOLLO]

I personally think Hybrids are the way forward, and by 2040 quite a lot of cars will be hybrids, with plug in capability and extended range when required (longer distances) - most commercial vehicles also. Probably petrol, maybe diesel or CNG (compressed natural gas), ethanol etc. Who knows - perhaps a multi fuel capability. Taxation will determine the "greener" mode to use the most.

 

All electric cars ? - yes, quite a lot - but many hybrids also. Something for everybody and most (range etc) problems will be solved by advancing technology.

 

Just my two pence worth. I will run my 1973 Rover P5B 3.5 Litre V8 with her twin SU's as long as I can. (I only do about 500 miles a year). I doubt I will ever buy an electric car - but who knows the future ?

 

Brit15

[Arthur]

Do you know that for a fact?  Was there not a point where, perhaps not universally, but in large urban areas where horses were eventually banned and the, let's say, dustbin men who cleaned up after the horses would have been discharged? At some point mixed horse and vehicle traffic would have become dangerous, not least for the horses who might spook (and why after all the driving mechanisms of tramway engines are usually covered).

 

I presume that even today there is some provision after a cavalry parade to remove the equine discharge.

 

I'm not aware that horses were ever banned from the streets of any UK city or town. Milkmen were still using them into the 60s, ours did when I was a kid in a northern town. Rag and bone men for even longer. Youngs brewery in London, and others elsewhere, had horse drawn drays up to about 2000.

 

Horses, particularly the more phlegmatic breeds used as cab and dray horses, soon become used to a busy environment and photographs of the late Edwardian and later period show them happilycheek by jowl with motor transport in city streets.

 

In the UK horses can be ridden, or draw a carriage, on any public road apart from motorways. These rights predate motorised vehicles.

 

Nobody was forced to abandon horses for internal combustion, they did because it was a damn sight easier and more convenient.

 

.

[Ozexpatriate]

Nobody was forced to abandon horses for internal combustion, they did because it was a damn sight easier and more convenient.

I suspect that by 2040 the post-Millennial generation will find autonomous EVs, summoned by some kind of electronic hitchhiking thumb*, more convenient than internal combustion engine-powered cars that you have to drive yourself.

 

* though I suspect it won't look like a short squat black rod, smooth and matte with a couple of flat switches and dials at one end, but it may not look like a mobile phone either - hopefully they won't be implanted by then.

Edited July 31, 2017 by Ozexpatriate

[jjb1970]

I think that within my lifetime conventional cars that you drive will become like horses, a hobby pursued by keen enthusiasts but an irrelevance in terms of transportation. We live in a world accustomed and conditioned to cars and where car ownership is still quite an aspirational thing but society is increasingly adjusting to the concept of buying a service of capability rather than physical assets and once you make the leap to seeing a road vehicle as simply a means of getting from A to B then autonomous vehicles on demand become very attractive.

[45156]

I will run my 1973 Rover P5B 3.5 Litre V8 with her twin SU's as long as I can. (I only do about 500 miles a year).

 

So your annual petrol purchase is about 25 gallons, then?

[Reorte]

I suspect that by 2040 the post-Millennial generation will find autonomous EVs, summoned by some kind of electronic hitchhiking thumb*, more convenient than internal combustion engine-powered cars that you have to drive yourself.

 

* though I suspect it won't look like a short squat black rod, smooth and matte with a couple of flat switches and dials at one end, but it may not look like a mobile phone either - hopefully they won't be implanted by then.

Up until they realise that they've left their phone in it, at which point they'll have a meltdown.

 

Electric cars are a good idea. Autonomous ones largely a bad one, although they'll have their niche benefits, and that's broadly true of any technology that doesn't do anything we can't already do (i.e. drive), but just ends up making people even more dependent on machines and even more irrelevant in the world. Save the technology for doing things we simply can't do (or which are too unpleasant for anyone to want to do).

 

Certainly this is all part of a future that we appear to be heading towards with no sign of turning, and it really is one with no appeal whatsoever. Another step towards no pride or care for anything, everything being treated as a disposable resource, everything treated as a service so it's a constant stream of someone taking money off you, a level of "convenience" which breeds an inability to appreciate anything, just one constant string of shiny distractions to keep people from realising that they've just become useless lumps of flesh incapable of even tying their own shoelaces.

Edited August 2, 2017 by Reorte

[Horsetan]

So your annual petrol purchase is about 25 gallons, then?

He probably has a tank in the shed to hold the fuel....!

[Guest]

Electric cars are a good idea. Autonomous ones largely a bad one, although they'll have their niche benefits, and that's broadly true of any technology that doesn't do anything we can't already do (i.e. drive), but just ends up making people even more dependent on machines and even more irrelevant in the world. Save the technology for doing things we simply can't do (or which are too unpleasant for anyone to want to do

Given how many thousands of people are killed by human drivers every year in the future people will find it absurd that it ever happened. Much like we look back at something like children working in mines and cotton mills today.

[runs as required]

Given how many thousands of people are killed by human drivers every year in the future people will find it absurd that it ever happened. Much like we look back at something like children working in mines and cotton mills today.

Can anyone yet visualise quite how this electric autonomous revolution will play out in say Lagos in Nigeria - or travel in India?

 

NB

One of our York University Conservation course Indian students returned and set up the radical electric vehicles only zone in Agra around the Taj Mahal nearly 20 years ago!

 

dh

[MarkC]

I was involved in the commissioning of an LNG bunkering facility for ships in the Tees, 3 years ago. (Should have been 2 facilities, but I pointed out several items on the proposed second one that made it impractical and/or high risk to do it the way the operator wanted to set it up. Made me unpopular, of course, but it was my duty to point such things out, seeing as it would have been myself and my staff at risk whilst using it, and it was quietly forgotten...). LNG powered ships, by the way, are an excellent development. Very clean burning, and interesting from a technical aspect. Not sure about the safety aspects of fitting them to the ships that carry the most dangerous goods of all - self-loading/discharging carriers, sometimes referred to as passenger ships - but that's another topic...

 

Anyway, I was talking to a gentleman from one of the oil majors about the use of LNG as a possible road fuel. He told me that the technology to run HGVs on LNG is well advanced. Once it's proven in HGVs, then light goods vehicles, then buses and coaches & finally private cars, will follow.

 

The biggest stumbling block at present appears to be the provision for fuelling. LNG is pretty dangerous from a cryogenic point of view, being fully refrigerated at -162^oC, so the trick will be to make fuelling arrangements as 'idiot proof' as possible.

[Guest]

Can anyone yet visualise quite how this electric autonomous revolution will play out in say Lagos in Nigeria - or travel in India?

 

Who knows. But when you consider Africa went from paying for things by cash to paying with a mobile phone, skipping all the nonsense in between that we had.

 

And India certainly needs help with its road casualty levels.

[Horsetan]

Can anyone yet visualise quite how this electric autonomous revolution will play out in say Lagos in Nigeria

Well, I suppose some of the locals will be trying to siphon off the electricity instead of fuel....

 

 

....- or travel in India?....

It may still be chaotic.

[Mark Saunders]

LNG is pretty dangerous from a cryogenic point of view, being fully refrigerated at -162^oC, so the trick will be to make fuelling arrangements as 'idiot proof' as possible.

There is a big problem with 'idiot/fool proof' as never underestimate their ingenuity at subverting your safety systems.

 

The big problem now is Safety is someone else's problem and there are now too many Solicitors making a good living off such people!

 

Mark Saunders

[runs as required]

Who knows. But when you consider Africa went from paying for things by cash to paying with a mobile phone, skipping all the nonsense in between that we had.

 

And India certainly needs help with its road casualty levels.

Yes I agree with both those points (and also the way both continents have taken to the PC type computer - but in parallel to pre-computer massed clerks, and messengers maintaining dog-eared filing storage)

 

My experience of Indian bus travel is that it borrows from Indian Railways in that there is a bus Driver plus his Fireman whose job it is to change gear, sound the whistle horn handbrake etc. while the Driver merely steers and brakes (very reluctantly).

I imagine double manning will continue on automated vehicles - plus the most heroic feats of dangerous maintenance being carried out while the vehicle is 'in flight' - c.f. Dickie Attenborough in 'Flight of the Phoenix'

 

dh