Proceedings of the Castle Aching Parish Council, 1905

[woodenhead]

The key difference between the West and Putin's East and China for that matter, is that the East is in it for the long haul - their planning goes back a long way and they hold key elements to Western prosperity - gas/oil for Russsia and manufacturing/electronics in China.  They understand holding your cards close to your chest, not letting anyone see the true plan until it is too late.  Putin could have played at the border of Ukraine for months if all he wanted to do was mess with Europe and Nato, he won't let go of these new parts to Russia just as he will not let of of Crimea.

 

The simple fact is the West has allowed both of these giants to empower themselves over decades and now that is coming home to roost.  In the closing ceremony of the Winter Olympics China reminded us all, they believe Taiwan is part of China, with Putin now expanding his territory through annexations, how long before China ceases claiming uninhabited islands and takes Taiwan.

 

There is plenty of territory they can claim without stepping onto Nato's toes, and neither Nato nor the USA want a war, the cost would be too high and those in the East know this.  Sanctions can work both ways so we can expect economic reactions to any sanctions placed by the West too.

 

Interesting that UEFA are not cancelling the Champions League final, I bet the FIA are also still planning on a Russian GP and the IOC, well we know what they believe in.

[Nearholmer]

8 minutes ago, Edwardian said:

Oh, I retain thee old fashioned notion that principle is what does, and should always, count.

 

And, I'm pointing out that we seem ourselves to have a fairly flexible view of the application of the principle when it suits us, and when in alliance with the US, which surely does have the capability to act as an overmastering power.

 

Note that I'm not saying "do nothing", neither am I suffering post-colonial guilt (there are many things I can feel about what powerful people of my grandfather's generation did, but guilt isnt one of them), all I'm doing is questioning the informing principle, whether it is the protection of small nations, or the protection of our way of life (which thinking further, may amount to the same thing, I'm not sure).

[Compound2632]

15 minutes ago, Edwardian said:

Though it doesn't mean you're wrong!

 

No indeed, I think Asquith was absolutely right - my point was simply that it is easier to stand up to bullies when you have (or believe you have) the power to resist them.

 

I believe that Great Britain's involvement in the Great War met the criteria for a Just War, at the outset. Whether the prosecution of the war or the post-war settlement met those criteria is another question. A war to resist Russian annexation of Ukranian territory would also meet those criteria.

 

 

[Edwardian]

9 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

the informing principle, whether it is the protection of small nations, or the protection of our way of life (which thinking further, may amount to the same thing, I'm not sure).

 

Indeed

 

2 minutes ago, Compound2632 said:

 

No indeed, I think Asquith was absolutely right - my point was simply that it is easier to stand up to bullies when you have (or believe you have) the power to resist them.

 

I believe that Great Britain's involvement in the Great War met the criteria for a Just War, at the outset. Whether the prosecution of the war or the post-war settlement met those criteria is another question. A war to resist Russian annexation of Ukranian territory would also meet those criteria.

 

 

 

Yes, I'd agree with all that.

[Regularity]

1 hour ago, Tom Burnham said:

In terms of the Great War, I've seen it suggested that Germany was counting on Britain remaining neutral as we had in 1870 and that the Foreign Office should have signalled the British committment to Belgian neutrality more clearly.

The German government was very clear on this: had the (second) Earl Grey been extremely clear on our stance over Belgian neutrality, they would not have mobilised so rapidly.

As to the post-war “settlement” if you remove the “blame the Germans” part of the terms, the financial and land settlements were relatively easy on Germany, compared to, say, the outcome of the Franco-Prussian war.

I am not sure whether or not war was inevitable - it has been argued that it was probably more likely in 1912 than 1914 - but I think there was an element of sabre rattling going on, for example the Serbian Government was actually very cooperative with most Austrian demands placed upon them after the assassination, and no one in diplomatic circles thought that this event would lead to a world-wide conflict at that time. Austria wanted to appear to be in control of events, and be big enough and important enough to call the shots. Similarly, Russia, with a stronger and wiser Tzar, might have used its influence to get Austria to scale back on its demands which were effectively asking the Serbians to surrender their sovereignty. Likewise, Germany could have made Austria pause rather than immediately and automatically backing them. Similarly, France could have chosen to apply pressure on Russia and Germany to get Austria to calm down and wind their neck in, and the UK could, as above, have made clear to Germany our commitment to preserving Belgian neutrality, for the simple reason that we effectively created Belgium to act as a buffer/neutral zone between Germany and France and that we intended to keep it that way, so that we could stay out of Europe so long as our own Empire/interests were concerned.

In short, Austria bullied Serbia, Russia bullied Austria for bullying Serbia, then the Germans put “family loyalty” ahead of prudence, then Russia’s mates piled in without and serious though of the realities and the consequences.

 

One thing we do know for sure, without the railway networks of Germany and France (and the UK) this scale of mobilisation wasn’t possible. Unfortunately, those same networks without the availability of heavy bomber aircraft to disrupt the supply lines, meant that a long stalemate was inevitable.

 

Now? There might be a principle at stake: as in 1930-1940, we (countries who nominally at least believe in self-determination and government sanctioned/controlled freedoms) are facing down racist totalitarianism (“My country is bigger than yours, and my people are better than yours, because I say so,”) again. Is that us imposing our worldview on others? Are individual rights (and their consequences) “self-evident”? Does this also apply to groupings of people into “nation states?” How does that work for indigenous (defined as, say, more than 3 generations) people from a neighbouring nation/people living within a larger polity’s borders? Would ceding the “Russian” areas of Ukraine to Russia solve the issue, or merely strengthen the resolve of Russia to dominate its Slavic neighbours?

Edited February 22, 2022 by Regularity
Typo

[rocor]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

 

 Whether it is the protection of small nations, or the protection of our way of life (which thinking further, may amount to the same thing, I'm not sure).

Being in possession of nuclear weapons confers a large advantage to small nations when faced with the bullies (Israel?). I am sure that Ukraine must have some regrets to having given up theirs for a promissory note. 

[Tom Burnham]

2 hours ago, Compound2632 said:

 

That's not the case. Western Ukraine, having since the 16th century been part of the Commonwealth of Poland-Lithuania, was, in the partitions of Poland in the late 18th century divided between Russia and Austria - Austrian getting the area around Lviv - Eastern Galicia. The newly-independent Poland after the Great War attempted to annex Western Ukraine from the People's Republic of Ukraine; in the sunsequent settlement Poland held Eastern Galicia.

Indeed a very complicated situation but the west of the present Ukraine can still hardly be described as historically Russian.

[woodenhead]

1 minute ago, Tom Burnham said:

Indeed a very complicated situation but the west of the present Ukraine can still hardly be described as historically Russian.

But they may use the excuse of ethnic Russians being at risk of genocide.

[Tom Burnham]

3 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

But they may use the excuse of ethnic Russians being at risk of genocide.

And that has generally never ended well...

Edited February 22, 2022 by Tom Burnham

[woodenhead]

12 minutes ago, Tom Burnham said:

And that has generally never ended well...

Including for the ethnic Russians sent in to protect the ethnic Russians who actually are not at risk of anything that hasn't been orchestrated by the lead ethnic Russian and his partners in crime.

[Regularity]

Then there are the results of Stalin’s forced relocations… …which now create the problems he wanted to create.

[rocor]

15 minutes ago, Regularity said:

Then there are the results of Stalin’s forced relocations… …which now create the problems he wanted to create.

Quiet!

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_Russians_in_post-Soviet_states

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Russia

[monkeysarefun]

I've got a spare room available.

[Regularity]

1 hour ago, monkeysarefun said:

I've got a spare room available.

Yes, but according to your avatar, it’s in a place where everything wants to kill you…

[monkeysarefun]

22 minutes ago, Regularity said:

Yes, but according to your avatar, it’s in a place where everything wants to kill you…

Hmmm, I didnt think this through.

 

I guess  that means I'll have to abandon my  plans for an "On The Beach"  reenactment business. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by monkeysarefun

[Ian Simpson]

14 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

I've got a spare room available.

I don't think railway modellers have spare rooms. We just have "plans for expansion".

Edited February 25, 2022 by Ian Simpson

[monkeysarefun]

1 hour ago, Ian Simpson said:

I don't think railway modellers have spare rooms. We just have "plans for expansion".

Its a standard  Australian size house - I have 2 other rooms set aside for that...

[Edwardian]

 

[Annie]

[Nearholmer]

I can’t get this out of my mind:

 

 

[rocor]

I was musing this morning on how much larger the membership of the "nuclear weapon nations club" will likely to become in future decades due to:

 

1) Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons that it had in its custody for a piece of paper.

 

2) Western powers not prepared to directly militarily confront Russia, due to their possession of nuclear weapons.   

Edited March 5, 2022 by rocor
To many blank spaces.

[Nearholmer]

Step 1 is for us to survive this decade.

[Caley Jim]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Step 1 is for us to survive this decade.

I am reminded of something I once heard during the 'Cold War' period in the 1950's/60's.

 

The situation was described as being like two men standing in a basement up to their ankles in petrol  -  both holding a box of matches!

 

Jim

[alastairq]

The problem really is, the generations that grew up to live with the Cold War are thinning out. New generations have no idea of the fear or trepidation, which the older generations lived their daily lives.

 

Nuclear devastation is getting into the realms of myth in the eyes of younger folk.

 

Putin has been known to comment along the lines of, 'If Russia cannot survive as a great power, then the rest of the world doesn't matter any more.'

 

Russia will eventually achieve its military objectives. Of that there is little doubt.

 

China is not happy at all., Embarrassed, I think, best describes her views?   

 

Sanctions will work, but no for an appreciable time yet.

Russia also should not be backed into a corner, but must be left with a decent way out of this mess. {''Cornered rat'' story springs to mind?}

 

The nasty side is the current use of Chechen para-militaries by Russia, to do the job her own soldiers were reluctant to do. I foresee some nasties emerging, with the Chechens being unaccountable to the world.

 

Russian forces using the same tactics they used to defeat the Germans in WW2. [Encircle, then sit back and bombard, until the Ukrainians locally have had enough]

Then unfortunately for the Russians, the Ukrainians will resort to the same tactics used by the Peshmerga in Afghan, and the Iraqi insurgents more recently...to great effect.

Also, something we in the 'west' cannot currently get our heads around, I suspect, is the Russian military attitude towards casualties..their own, that is.

Russian military doctrine has always been immune to the huge casualty rates sustained amongst their own forces....Something that is the opposite to US or GB military attitudes.  [Which the North Vietnamese used to great effect against the US during the Vietnam war......sending home excessively high numbers of body bags.  ]

[Caley Jim]

During that period my parents (both science graduates) were Scientific Intelligence Officers in the Civil Defence.  Their job was to receive information on blast sites and radiation levels from Observer Corps posts (there are many of these posts still around if you know what to look for).  They used that to plot the extent of likely damage and, along with weather forecasts, radiation levels, rather like contours on a map, onto transparent sheets covering OS maps pinned over an entire wall.  From these data they then advised the rescue organisers how long their personnel could stay in a given area before they received an unacceptable dose of radiation.  In my early teens I used to accompany them on exercises and act as their 'message boy'.   I saw at first hand the possible devastating effects of a nuclear bomb blast and how far the radiation effects would spread.  Scary stuff which I never thought I would actually ever experience.  Now........?

 

Jim