Lockdown’s Last Lingerings - (Covid since L2 ended)

[Nearholmer]

 

2 minutes ago, billbedford said:

The fact that neither is ill at the moment says more about the people's susceptibility to the virus than anything else. 

 

We are talking about the same virus here, aren't we;  the one that is famously difficult to control because it is easily transmitted before the symptoms show, and which shows no symptoms at all in a significant number of infectious cases; the one that has put forty thousand people in hospital  in the UK right now, and is killing getting on for two thousand people a day at the moment; that one?

 

Perhaps we aren't.

 

 

[EddieB]

22 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Shaking hands ... with a bloke who might be carrying covid OTH the other hand, could do you rather a lot of harm.

Never do left-handed handshakes???

[Pete the Elaner]

1 hour ago, billbedford said:

 

I think that you are more likely to get a respiratory infection standing out in the weather for half an hour than anything those two guys did. 

 

 

If that were true, would it not be sensible to avoid both where possible?

 

1 hour ago, billbedford said:

 

 

In fact I will make a prediction. If, before Easter, we get another cold snap as we did after Christmas, then hospitalisations and deaths will increase to around the levels that we have seen in the last few weeks. 

 

I have always believed that this virus spreads far more easily in colder weather, but I don't think this makes it worth abandoning any effort to reduce the transmission.

It may 'just' make the difference of 1300 deaths in a particular day instead of 1400 but one of those 100 could be you, me or someone close to us. Surely that is worth the effort?

[5944]

2 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Or the house over the road that employs a cleaning service, two ladies turn up no masks or gloves, let themselves in, do the cleaning and then leave.

 

How is that allowed under current guidelines - household cleaners are not keyworkers and if they are cleaning multiple houses like that daily then they are in an Aero's worth of bubbles.

Because the current guidelines say you can go to work if you can't work from home. Doesn't matter if you're a key worker or not. Yes, it's barmy. Hence why my brother in law can go to work once a week to print stuff off, but works from home the rest of the time. 

[Nearholmer]

16 minutes ago, Pete the Elaner said:

I have always believed that this virus spreads far more easily in colder weather,

 

There's science to support that belief, showing that the virus survives best in cool, humid conditions, and that we are most susceptible to infection by it when our nose/throat has been dried-out by being in heated homes. IIUC the same is true of our old pals colds and flu.

 

 I can't find it again right now, but there's a paper written by several Chinese academics quite early in the pandemic which gives very accurate warning of the likelihood of severe outbreaks in Northern temperate cities during autumn and winter on the above bases - the maps in it indicating zones at risk are pretty much maps of what has happened.

[BoD]

1 hour ago, billbedford said:

 

But if you are work colleagues or such, you are both likely to be infected with the same virus. The fact that neither is ill at the moment says more about the people's susceptibility to the virus than anything else. 

 

 

They could be asymptomatic and - if I've read the original post correctly - were then going on to handle and deliver take away food (or at least its packaging) to others.  Hopefully they have a protocol to follow there, if not with each other.

[john new]

1 hour ago, rocor said:

 

An interesting insight into possible reasons why an individual may be asymptomatic to a virus.

 

https://www.advisory.com/en/daily-briefing/2020/08/13/asymptomatic

The fourth one in that report, mask wearing, raises a thought to me that may be daft but....?

 

If you do get hit by a trigger droplet that gives you COVID then when you next wear a mask you will be breathing the bug out into the enclosed air zone behind your mask, including also presumably initially whilst in the incubation phase. Once infected you will then be breathing the bug out (why it spreads) and obviously concurrently back in to yourself, and logically much more so if the excluded air is enclosed for the rebreathing. 

 

If you get a subsequent attack in that way does the virus try to reinfect your blood and by so doing is attacking the previous version of itself somehow so the person has trace evidence of having had it but is asymptomatic as the bug was actually killed before the symptoms showed?

 

One for the virology experts.

[EddieB]

29 minutes ago, john new said:

The fourth one in that report, mask wearing, raises a thought to me that may be daft but....?

 

If you do get hit by a trigger droplet that gives you COVID then when you next wear a mask you will be breathing the bug out into the enclosed air zone behind your mask, including also presumably initially whilst in the incubation phase. Once infected you will then be breathing the bug out (why it spreads) and obviously concurrently back in to yourself, and logically much more so if the excluded air is enclosed for the rebreathing. 

 

If you get a subsequent attack in that way does the virus try to reinfect your blood and by so doing is attacking the previous version of itself somehow so the person has trace evidence of having had it but is asymptomatic as the bug was actually killed before the symptoms showed?

 

One for the virology experts.

Which is another reason why it is better to dispose of, disinfect or quarantine a mask after wearing.

 

There is some evidence (mainly from medical staff) suggesting that length of exposure can lead to more severe symptoms, but (if I understand what you're saying correctly) an asymptomatic reaction could be because the T-cells in your blood (see point 1 of the link in rocor's post) already have a memory of what the enemy looks like and should recognise it if it reappears (though nothing is certain).

 

[Not a virology expert - but know some that are.]

[john new]

3 minutes ago, EddieB said:

snipped....

 

, but (if I understand what you're saying correctly) an asymptomatic reaction could be because the T-cells in your blood (see point 1 of the link in rocor's post) already have a memory of what the enemy looks like and should recognise it if it reappears (though nothing is certain).

 

[Not a virology expert - but know some that are.]

Yes, along those lines, but I couldn't express it very clearly, yours is better. 

Edited January 21, 2021 by john new

[monkeysarefun]

5 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Cold weather does not give anyone a respiratory infection - virus or bacteria caught from other people do, although it is true that if you already have a bug on board, getting very cold (which isn't the same thing as being outdoors wearing suitable clothes)  can sometimes lower your immunity and allow it to get you.

 

Its no coincidence that people who work or exercise outdoors through the winter, in the cold, and don't spend much time indoors, fugged-up with other people, tend to get far fewer colds, chest illnesses, etc.

 

TBH, I've had far fewer colds etc since ceasing to commute and work in an office, and (barring lockdowns) I spend far more time outside in the winter, and feel far better for it, than I used to.

 

 

 

There are also studies pointing to Vitamin D as helping to reduce the infection rate of Covid and other respiratory diseases.  Since Vitamin  D is produced by exposure to sunlight there is a case to be made for being outside in the sun , even if the weather is cold.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30268-0/fulltext

 

So off you all go   - put down that computer, go outside and  get some of that sunshine into you like our mums were always telling us to do.

 

Unless its night time.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[stewartingram]

I've mentioned our local Cheap Shop in the town (just about the only one open, mind you apart from takeaways/estate agents there are literally only a handful of shops anyway). Yesterday I heard a tale from my neighbour, who is claimed to be a friend o (but more likely is someone "used" by the owner's*) mother when she needs something).

*gets complicated - I'll try to unravel it in a minute.

We'll call the mother M, and the neighbour N, and the son S.

M contacts N, asks her to go over and babysit the dogs (!) whilst she goes to the hospital to collect hubby. (See what I mean about "using"?) On the way, N calls into the shop, and S is in the tiny cramped shop. Now N is not the shall we say sharpest of people (she suffers from something in her past and is quite a recluse), but she abruptly asks S "where is your mask?". His reply "I'm not doing anything what the Govt tells me to do". And he is in a small cramped shop, which by my reckoning shouldn't even be open, judging by the goods he sells. (In a word - cheap tat).

* M actually used to live next door to us, but thankfully moved away. Her and hubby are both in their late 80s. Her one interest in life is the shop. When she moved in next door she told us she was retiring, going to do the "paperwork" at home and let S have the shop and run it. TBH, I've not noticed any change. Before Lockdown 1, she would park her car outside the shop all day (in a 30 min bay) next to the car from S (all day). Goods from the shop are spread out the front on the narrow path (thought you couldn't do that?) Hubby was left to sleep in the car all day - he has dementia. Then LD1 happened, the shop was closed when everything else was. Not too long after there were some restrictions eased, not many. The shop re-opened. I think they got visited by the council or somebody because suddenly the window & door got plastered with Covid notices - not that they took any notice themselves. They haven't closed since except for Xmas day, and the brief 2 days around NYD when rumours abounded (including N being told by M's daughter) that M had caught the virus. About 4 days later M was about again , but hubby then went into hospital, again daughter confirmed initially he had it too. What do you believe?

With families like that about, obviously doing what is right for them, how are we supposed to cope?

 

[monkeysarefun]

Spanish tennis player 4 days ago complaining about being put into quarantine upon arrival in Australia:

 

In a tweet that has since been deleted, Paula Badosa wrote: "At the beginning the rule was the positive section of the plane who was with that person had to quarantine. Not the whole plane. Not fair to change the rules at the last moment. And to have to stay in a room with no windows and no air."

 

Paula Badosa news today:

 

A Spanish tennis player who was forced to quarantine in her hotel room in Melbourne after potentially being exposed to the coronavirus on an Australian Open charter flight says she has tested positive for COVID-19.

Paula Badosa, a 23-year-old who reached the fourth round at last year's French Open and is ranked in the top 70, wrote early on Friday morning on Twitter that she received her test result for the illness caused by the coronavirus on the seventh day of her hard quarantine.

 

(For what its worth our compulsory quarantine rules were explained to all  players in a phone hookup meeting prior to boarding planes to arrive here. Apparently only a handful of players bothered to join the meeting,  excluding assumedly Paula Badosa  -  which might help explain why yesterday Australia had 0 new local cases, while Spain had 41,576)

 

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[Hroth]

2 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

So off you all go   - put down that computer, go outside and  get some of that sunshine into you like our mums were always telling us to do.

 

Unless its night time.

 

You don't get vitamin D from moonshine?

[Nearholmer]

2 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

Unless its night time.

 

Just remember Monkeys, for a large proportion of the Brritish isles, given our latitude and weather, its effectively night time from the start of November until sometime in early-March.

 

(I did actually see some sunshine today, and wasn't altogether certain at first what it was)

[monkeysarefun]

18 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Just remember Monkeys, for a large proportion of the Brritish isles, given our latitude and weather, its effectively night time from the start of November until sometime in early-March.

 

(I did actually see some sunshine today, and wasn't altogether certain at first what it was)

I remember wondering when I was younger why The Beatles etc bothered writing all those songs that made such a big deal about the sun coming out.

Edited January 21, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[Nearholmer]

This about the risk of transmission outdoors is well worth a read, including, in fact especially, the linked paper Prof Goldman. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55680305  All very reassuring.

[robert17649]

9 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

I remember wondering when I was younger why The Beatles etc bothered writing all those songs that made such a big deal about the sun coming out.

As we all know the sun will come out Tamara.

[hayfield]

The basics of keeping safe are well known, yet many of all ages seem either to ignore the advice or just leave their brains alone when they go out. I had a couple of older (daughter in late 50's and her mother) women behind me in the queue at the supermarket, totally oblivious to and form of social distancing as too involved in talking to each other. Thankfully the cashier had a few stern words with them. So easy to let your guard down. Or just content on winning a Darwin award 

[Nearholmer]

2 hours ago, robert17649 said:

As we all know the sun will come out Tamara.

 

Tamara will be delighted, because its brilliant and clear here today - made me get nostalgic for the calm, bright days of Lockdown 1, when we were all impressed by the silence and the absence of con-trails in the sky. Seems like strangely innocent times now.

 

 

[Hroth]

11 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

I remember wondering when I was younger why The Beatles etc bothered writing all those songs that made such a big deal about the sun coming out.

You have to remember that the Beatles spent a lot of time in a Cavern.  And at least in Liverpool they were by the sea, and occasionally DID see the sun.  Imagine if they had been Mancs, we'd have had songs about mythical suns...

 

[rocor]

14 hours ago, Hroth said:

 

You don't get vitamin D from moonshine?

 

You certainly don't, as alcohol consumption lowers vitamin D levels in the body. 

[Bernard Lamb]

Police who broke up wedding attended by 400 people at a north London school said the event was a ‘deeply disturbing’ breach of lockdown rules as it emerged it’s not the first time it has been used for events during the coronavirus pandemic.

Met Police officers said organisers of the wedding, held at Yesoday Hatorah Girls Senior School in Stamford Hill, covered the windows to stop people seeing in.

Many of the guests fled as officers raided the venue on Thursday night, but five people were handed £200 fixed penalty notices and the organiser could face a £10,000 fine.

 

No comment.

Bernard

[Nearholmer]

I saw that and was completely staggered, it's off-the-end-of-the-world bizarre.

 

I can understand (not condone, note) how a combination of greedy promoters, and the foolish irresponsibility of youth combine to create lockdown raves, but a wedding party!?1?

[rocor]

29 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Police who broke up wedding attended by 400 people at a north London school said the event was a ‘deeply disturbing’ breach of lockdown rules as it emerged it’s not the first time it has been used for events during the coronavirus pandemic.

Met Police officers said organisers of the wedding, held at Yesoday Hatorah Girls Senior School in Stamford Hill, covered the windows to stop people seeing in.

Many of the guests fled as officers raided the venue on Thursday night, but five people were handed £200 fixed penalty notices and the organiser could face a £10,000 fine.

 

No comment.

Bernard

 

Lots of recent publicity on the subject, of the increasingly larger fines being handed out for the breaking of coronavirus lockdown laws. I wonder how much of this will be collected though?. With court cases (both magistrates and crown) having a backlog stretching into 2022, and the possibility that the accused, particularly the younger ones not having the resources to pay the fines.

[Nearholmer]

Slightly more positive note: I think its safe to say that in the city where I live not only has the number of new cases been on the downward for three weeks, but the number of hospital admissions each day, and now possibly the number of deaths from it esch day are also past their peaks.

 

All three are still at levels that seemed inconceivable as recently as early December, but they do seem to be going down - I'm sure they'd ping back up like elastic bands if lockdown was release now, but positive is positive.

 

I've been trying to find an area in Kent that has a very similar case history to ours, to see whether it might be ahead of us, peaked earlier, allowing a view of what the fall might look like, but so far all the ones I thought might fit are actually so similar to ours that doesn't help ......... so I'm left with the question "Will the decline in cases continue at roughly 20% each week?".

 

This is a good, balanced bit of reporting about when lockdown might end https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55757369 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Nearholmer