Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Nearholmer]

There's the "wishful thinking" bit to consider too, you know:

 

- Hmmm, feeling a bit below par this morning; probably didn't sleep well;

 

- still feeling mildly iffy this evening; big race in a week; get to bed early, look after myself; probably just a mild cold;

 

- seemed to tire out a bit soon in training today; thought I'd be over the jet-lag by now; still, keep at, big race only ten days now.

 

- What!!??? I'm very mildly symptomatic with Covid, and have infected 27 others over the past three days??? Never!!

 

That is presumably why compulsory testing is needed.

Edited May 25, 2021 by Nearholmer

[boxbrownie]

1 minute ago, Nearholmer said:

There's the "wishful thinking" bit to consider too, you know:

 

- Hmmm, feeling about below par this morning; probably didn't sleep well;

 

- still feeling mildly iffy this evening; big race in a week; get to bed early, look after myself; probably just a mild cold;

 

- seemed to tire out a bit soon in training today; thought I'd be over the jet-lag by now; still, keep at, big race only ten days now.

 

- What!!??? I'm very mildly symptomatic with Covid, and have infected 27 others over the past three days??? Never!!

Unfortunately even for professionals that could be very true.

[hayfield]

I see from the Expresses front page that Spain's tourist chief is stating Spain will be on the UK's green list in 2 weeks time when the list is next reviewed !!

 

Granted their latest infection rates are down but after adjusting for population size its still over twice the UK's. Apparently thousands have jetted out there and I expect think/hope they will be able to return without the need to isolate.  In my opinion if the rules change it should be for those travelling out, not those returning from trips when the amber list was in force, purely on the grounds of public safety and to stop others jumping the gun as other countries approach green listing.

[alastairq]

I have just finished polishing my barge pole. Now for the sterilising treatment!

[Simon Lee]

1 hour ago, Hobby said:

 

I doubt it, even if they could! The highest profile athletes to have caught Covid are probably the F1 drivers last year who despite being extremely physically fit were knocked out for two weeks when they got it. I expect the same would apply to an Olympic athlete, catch it and that's any chance of a medal out of the window!

 

 

Family friend who is a Triathlete here in Germany caught Covid last year, and is still no where near fit enough to complete any of the three sections of a triathlon let alone a full race, 3000 meters is about her limit at the moment.

 

When you see some one who is really fit and healthy struggling 12 months on it emphasises how nasty it can be

 

 

[boxbrownie]

7 minutes ago, alastairq said:

I have just finished polishing my barge pole. Now for the sterilising treatment!

I hope it’s not just me who is deeply disturbed by that statement 

 

[Oldddudders]

11 minutes ago, alastairq said:

I have just finished polishing my barge pole. Now for the sterilising treatment!

TMI

[Ben B]

   I'm a little worried about the possibility of the 'local lockdown by stealth' approach that may be creeping in, though it's worry driven by selfishness, I must admit.  My wife and I are double-vaccinated, and we were hoping to get away to Wales to see my sister this half term (staying separately from her in a caravan down the coast, travelling for socially-distanced garden visits because she isn't vaccinated yet).  But over the other side of the hill from where we live is Kirklees... close enough to have me worried.  The Scots have already said there'll be a travel ban for people from Bolton etc, I wouldn't be surprised if Drakeford implements the same.  When it all went wrong last summer, even though locally rates were low, the blanket shifting of 'the North' and everything from Manchester to the edge of Leeds into the top tier caught us out.

 

   Looking at the interactive maps of the virus rates is informative, and reinforces some things I'd been noticing.  The other side of the valley from our housing estate is mostly older 1960's housing, and an estate with a reputation for being a bit rough (for example I had the car bricked whilst picking one of the kids up from her mates party), and our youngest's school is just in the corner of that area so has its catchment heavily in that estate.  Their infection levels are way above our side of the valley, and even most other parts of town, according to the map. 

   Thing is, since the schools re-opened, the playground is full of parents who don't bother with masks, who gather in large groups to chat, and don't social distance- I'd say most days more than half of the parents in the playground aren't masked.  The nearest I saw recently to one of these parents admitting the virus had ever existed was a mum at the school two weeks ago, when challenged about her lack of mask, bellow "I don't need to wear a ****ing mask, Boris said it's all over, we can go to the ****ing pub!"  The local co-op, just up the hill from the school, in the mornings is full of people not wearing masks, to the point where the staff have stopped trying to enforce it- parents in groups letting their toddlers run around, and grab things on shelves, whilst nobody follows the one-way system.  If you say anything, you get grief off them. 

   The whole area was being covered in anti-vax propaganda until a couple of weeks ago.  At one point in March, every lamppost for three streets around the school had stickers on with "real men don't wear masks", "Covid 19-84", and "You're being conned".  The school itself had its sign covered in such graffiti, which they'd clear in the morning, and it would be back by the evening.  I don't think it's a coincidence then that they're now apparently seeing a rise in the rate of the virus, as the overwhelming impression seems to be that a lot of the people in said area don't believe in it. 

[hayfield]

3 minutes ago, Ben B said:

   I'm a little worried about the possibility of the 'local lockdown by stealth' approach that may be creeping in, though it's worry driven by selfishness, I must admit.  My wife and I are double-vaccinated, and we were hoping to get away to Wales to see my sister this half term (staying separately from her in a caravan down the coast, travelling for socially-distanced garden visits because she isn't vaccinated yet).  But over the other side of the hill from where we live is Kirklees... close enough to have me worried.  The Scots have already said there'll be a travel ban for people from Bolton etc, I wouldn't be surprised if Drakeford implements the same.  When it all went wrong last summer, even though locally rates were low, the blanket shifting of 'the North' and everything from Manchester to the edge of Leeds into the top tier caught us out.

 

   Looking at the interactive maps of the virus rates is informative, and reinforces some things I'd been noticing.  The other side of the valley from our housing estate is mostly older 1960's housing, and an estate with a reputation for being a bit rough (for example I had the car bricked whilst picking one of the kids up from her mates party), and our youngest's school is just in the corner of that area so has its catchment heavily in that estate.  Their infection levels are way above our side of the valley, and even most other parts of town, according to the map. 

   Thing is, since the schools re-opened, the playground is full of parents who don't bother with masks, who gather in large groups to chat, and don't social distance- I'd say most days more than half of the parents in the playground aren't masked.  The nearest I saw recently to one of these parents admitting the virus had ever existed was a mum at the school two weeks ago, when challenged about her lack of mask, bellow "I don't need to wear a ****ing mask, Boris said it's all over, we can go to the ****ing pub!"  The local co-op, just up the hill from the school, in the mornings is full of people not wearing masks, to the point where the staff have stopped trying to enforce it- parents in groups letting their toddlers run around, and grab things on shelves, whilst nobody follows the one-way system.  If you say anything, you get grief off them. 

   The whole area was being covered in anti-vax propaganda until a couple of weeks ago.  At one point in March, every lamppost for three streets around the school had stickers on with "real men don't wear masks", "Covid 19-84", and "You're being conned".  The school itself had its sign covered in such graffiti, which they'd clear in the morning, and it would be back by the evening.  I don't think it's a coincidence then that they're now apparently seeing a rise in the rate of the virus, as the overwhelming impression seems to be that a lot of the people in said area don't believe in it. 

 

For a short period of time a few problem families were housed on the estate we used to live in back in Hertfordshire, they caused havoc for the year or so until that part of the estate was demolished for redevelopment, you do have my sympathy.

 

I think local restrictions will be in force after Junes deadline for any local infection spikes. Looking at the heat map over the past week, the Bolton area is the one at the moment which seems not to be under full control. However if recent infections are anything to go by it can be treated quickly and the infections will decrease

 

At the moment its common sense to keep away from the infected areas, but to date travel restrictions have been very limited/enforced

[Nearholmer]

32 minutes ago, Ben B said:

 The whole area was being covered in anti-vax propaganda until a couple of weeks ago.

 

Very interesting.

 

Call me a paranoid old fool if you like, but I do wonder exactly who is behind a lot of this stuff, who stands to gain by stirring-up disaffection and discontent.

 

My conclusion is that at least some of it comes from "bad actors", who years ago, identified that a cracking good way to de-stabilise countries that they perceive to be their rivals, or to be threats to them, is to target the least well-off people, who naturally have pre-existing grievances and who naturally distrust authority, and stoke their grievances, distrust etc, thereby diverting government resources into sorting-out the resultant messes.

 

In short, I think people in some places are being "played", and I hope that MI5 and MI6 are onto it.

[chris p bacon]

Lady Bacon 'Had'* a friend who is well educated and you would think would know better, she has become an anti vaxer and promotes all sorts of conspiracy theories about 'a new world order' the more extreme the theory the more actively she promotes it.

 

*- it was someone LB worked with for many years, she would always moan about governments and paying tax but C19 lockdown has really brought a different side of her character out that wasn't seen before. LB now disassociates herself from her.

[Nearholmer]

30 minutes ago, hayfield said:

At the moment its common sense to keep away from the infected areas, but to date travel restrictions have been very limited/enforced

 

But, I don't believe there are any "travel restrictions", either in or out. There seems to be some very muted, almost hidden, advice to people living in heavily-affected areas, but that's about it.

 

If I were a cynic, I might suggest that the last thing HMG wanted to be announcing at the same time as lifting restrictions by "moving down the road map" on 17th May was a bunch of local lockdowns.

 

It does all bring up the question of whether it is actually necessary to tightly limit the spread of the Indian variant in future (assuming that is even possible). If it is no more severe, and actually not noticeably more transmisable, than the Kent variant, then maybe it isn't ....... but it seems far too soon to be certain on either point, so presumably it does need to be penned at least while knowledge is acquired.

[hayfield]

8 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Very interesting.

 

Call me a paranoid old fool if you like, but I do wonder exactly who is behind a lot of this stuff, who stands to gain by stirring-up disaffection and discontent.

 

My conclusion is that at least some of it comes from "bad actors", who years ago, identified that a cracking good way to de-stabilise countries that they perceive to be their rivals, or to be threats to them, is to target the least well-off people, who naturally have pre-existing grievances and who naturally distrust authority, and stoke their grievances, distrust etc, thereby diverting government resources into sorting-out the resultant messes.

 

In short, I think people in some places are being "played", and I hope that MI5 and MI6 are onto it.

 

 

Two friends who I worked with are anti vaccines, one certainly is very bright (always got the girls off their parting tickets, but that's another story),  They have very strong beliefs which I believe are confirmed by various online groups. No doubt many behind these posts have hidden agendas. I assume governments of most countries use various sites to undermine regimes they have issues with. I would be concerned if our government did not want to distract those who wish this government harm, its the new cold warfare 

[hayfield]

4 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

But, I don't believe there are any "travel restrictions", either in or out. There seems to be some very muted, almost hidden, advice to people living in heavily-affected areas, but that's about it.

 

If I were a cynic, I might suggest that the last thing HMG wanted to be announcing at the same time as lifting restrictions by "moving down the road map" on 17th May was a bunch of local lockdowns.

 

It does all bring up the question of whether it is actually necessary to tightly limit the spread of the Indian variant in future (assuming that is even possible). If it is no more severe, and actually not noticeably more transmisable, than the Kent variant, then maybe it isn't ....... but it seems far too soon to be certain on either point, so presumably it does need to be penned at least while knowledge is acquired.

 

 

Accept all these points, but with the Indian variant I think the government would prefer that we reach the herd immunity levels first (90%), and as you say take the breaks off travelling slowly. Lets face it many have ignored the rules anyway, its the masses they wish to influence. But then again who in their right minds would put themselves in danger  by going to an infected area ?

[Nearholmer]

9 minutes ago, hayfield said:

But then again who in their right minds would put themselves in danger  by going to an infected area ?

 

People who can't WFH, and whose workplaces are in those areas. Children whose schools are in those areas. People who live in outlying villages and who routinely do their food shopping in those areas. People who have medical appointments at GP or hospital in those areas. Those sort of people, I guess.

 

My overall point is that when an outbreak occurs in a town that normally serves a wide hinterland of suburbs, smaller towns, and villages, it takes a pretty firm lockdown to seal it off; lots of people are neither WFH or a pensioner, so can't so easily go into bunker mode.

[Nearholmer]

If you want to be further baffled by the peculiarities of human nature, listen to "You and Yours" on Radio 4 right now, which is a string of phone-ins from prosperous pensioners trying to work out how to travel on very exotic foreign holidays during a pandemic, given all the myriad precautions in different countries.

 

What's wrong with sipping tea from a thermos flask, while huddling under a plaid blanket on the shingle at Bognor? That's what I want to know.

 

 

 

[alastairq]

7 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

What's wrong with sipping tea from a thermos flask, while huddling under a plaid blanket on the shingle at Bognor? That's what I want to know.

 Or, a layby on the A2?

[Reorte]

21 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

What's wrong with sipping tea from a thermos flask, while huddling under a plaid blanket on the shingle at Bognor? That's what I want to know.

I prefer a weekend getting rained on in the Lake District.

[Ben B]

10 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

What's wrong with sipping tea from a thermos flask, while huddling under a plaid blanket on the shingle at Bognor? That's what I want to know.

 

Because we've been, as a population, conditioned over the years to believe that it's our God-given right to travel abroad for a holiday?  It does feel like some people seem to believe it's only a proper holiday if it's three weeks skiing in the Alps, or a fortnight in Disneyland, or a week at a poolside in Spain (depending on your social class or income).  As a foster parent, I've actually had rows with Social Services before because it's been implied we've somehow been neglecting the kids by not taking them on foreign holidays every year, and only going camping in Northumberland or stopping in a caravan in Snowdonia.  The media spend so long pedalling the old clichés, going on about it always being wet and miserable here.  It's why I'm massively hacked-off by the term 'staycation'... there seems to be this mad belief at the moment that a domestic holiday anywhere in Britain is a 'staycation', whereas a 'holiday' means going overseas.  I always thought 'Staycation' meant staying in your house but taking a break from work etc to visit attractions locally.

 

It's my massive bugbear with all this... the talk of loosening restrictions, opening air-corridors abroad to "help the British Holiday Industry".  No, it helps a few airlines and some Portugese hoteliers, it doesn't help the hotel in Scarborough, the arcade in Margate, the chippy in Bridport, or the shop selling buckets and spades and lilos in Pwhelli.  Our usual holiday destination is North and West Wales, quite a lot of last Spring Porthmadog was considerably hotter than most of Southern Europe! 

 

What a responsible Government who really wanted to help the British holiday industry ought to be looking at, surely, is finding a safe way to encourage people to travel to British seaside and holiday resorts, whilst re-assuring the people who live and work there that the influx of outsiders can be handled safely.  Find some way of stopping the off-the-leash littering and drunken debauchery that was happening last year in some places, so the UK resorts aren't so paranoid about outsiders arriving.  Maybe increase patronage of the battered and beleaguered railway network by laying-on some holiday specials with charter stock to places like Newquay or Barmouth. 

 

But then that won't help Mr.Ryan Air or Mr. E-Z Jet, will it...

[boxbrownie]

2 hours ago, Ben B said:

   I'm a little worried about the possibility of the 'local lockdown by stealth' approach that may be creeping in, though it's worry driven by selfishness, I must admit.   

The news (all press in fact) this morning has been not surprisingly reporting this misnomer, the official announcement has been it is advice for the local areas concerned to give people information to make their own decisions, it’s not a lockdown, local or otherwise.

 

Its the usual “confusing” wingeing from those who wish to stir things up.

[Nearholmer]

1 minute ago, boxbrownie said:

Its the usual “confusing” wingeing from those who wish to stir things up.

 

Hmmmm ........... I just listened to a string of senior representatives and officials from the areas in question on the radio, all spitting feathers over the fact that the advice was issued silently. Many of them didn't know it existed until today. Nobody said the advice was confusing (it isn't when you find it), just that it was Britain's best kept secret.

[rocor]

46 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

People who can't WFH, and whose workplaces are in those areas. Children whose schools are in those areas. People who live in outlying villages and who routinely do their food shopping in those areas. People who have medical appointments at GP or hospital in those areas. Those sort of people, I guess.

 

My overall point is that when an outbreak occurs in a town that normally serves a wide hinterland of suburbs, smaller towns, and villages, it takes a pretty firm lockdown to seal it off; lots of people are neither WFH or a pensioner, so can't so easily go into bunker mode.

 

Apart from those taking a calculated risk to cling on to their jobs, gain access to food or obtain treatment for serious medical conditions, there will those that do not believe in the pandemic. This will not be a reluctance of belief per se, just that their system of beliefs will tend towards the exotic. This may, or may not involve alien lizards that wish take over the world, or being controlled through microchips injected into their blood.

[alastairq]

22 minutes ago, Reorte said:

I prefer a weekend getting rained on in the Lake District.

 Far too many people in the Lake District....it's like Asda on a Saturday morning?

In my mind, something is wrong when paths over mountains get so worn as to garner reports concerning potholes? 

Or when Human poo is more prevalent than that of any other beast?

[Reorte]

11 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Hmmmm ........... I just listened to a string of senior representatives and officials from the areas in question on the radio, all spitting feathers over the fact that the advice was issued silently. Many of them didn't know it existed until today. Nobody said the advice was confusing (it isn't when you find it), just that it was Britain's best kept secret.

"Confusing" was mentioned quite a lot on the radio this morning, not that I could see anything confusing about it.

[burgundy]

9 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Nobody said the advice was confusing (it isn't when you find it), just that it was Britain's best kept secret.

“But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
“Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”

From the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, with apologies to Douglas Adams.  

Best wishes 

Eric