Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[chris p bacon]

7 minutes ago, Neil said:

 

That's a bit of a misrepresentation of the piece. I'd suggest that those interested read it and come to their own conclusions.

 

That's exactly how I read it. It compares the UK to another country from a perspective which is clear from the start is not a balanced one.

 

Your posts have read in much the same way to me, but after reading many I'm able to see which viewpoint you're coming from.

[APOLLO]

 

Brit15

[Torper]

20 minutes ago, Neil said:

 

That's a bit of a misrepresentation of the piece. I'd suggest that those interested read it and come to their own conclusions.

 

I thought in fact that it was a gross misrepresentation of the piece.

 

DT

[boxbrownie]

50 minutes ago, Neil said:

 

That's a bit of a misrepresentation of the piece. I'd suggest that those interested read it and come to their own conclusions.

I read it, and came to much the same conclusion….poor chap is still smarting.

[Andy Hayter]

C P Bacon aka Dave, has the cause of the number distribution in the UK absolutely spot on.  Low population densities as generally found in rural areas will be strongly influenced by individual cases or a family cluster.

 

To exemplify that, here in France, except for big towns and cities, case rates are displayed as a range per 100,000 population.   This is to preserve anonymity in small communities.  From memory the ranges are 

less than 10 per 100,000

10-50 per 100,000

50-100 per 100,000

100-150 per 100,000

150-250 per 100,000

and more than 250 per 100,000

 

Our very small commune has consistently been in the less than 10 category = not one single case.  If we had had however just one single case we would have been in the more than 250 category.  Such is the impact of using statistics per number of population when applied to groups of small numbers of people.  

[hayfield]

55 minutes ago, Neil said:

 

That's a bit of a misrepresentation of the piece. I'd suggest that those interested read it and come to their own conclusions.

 

I think with people now free to go and mix where they want, infections follow, look how the West Country has and is still being hit. The big BUT is that the roll out of vaccines whilst only damping infections it has really reduced hospitalizations and deaths. Areas where infections were light will have less natural protection

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Oldddudders said:

My reading is that while UK infection rates remain high, hospital admissions are generally reducing, as are deaths. 

 

Comparisons with France - similar size population - are interesting. Slightly more in hospital here, but twice as many in ICU, and both numbers are reducing slowly. The current UK figure for infections per 100k population is well above 300, yet in only one Département of France is the number even above 100. In Finistère it is 12. But we all wear masks in public places. My postie donned hers before handing me a parcel yesterday.

 

 

I have stopped even considering comparisons as there are so many variables, if you look for infections you will find them, the more you look the more you will find. Comparing hospitalizations and deaths from covid whilst perhaps are a bit more easy to compare, again differing methods of collection and reporting makes it harder to compare accurately

[hayfield]

40 minutes ago, Torper said:

 

I thought in fact that it was a gross misrepresentation of the piece.

 

DT

 

Not much about covid, just a grumble about an inconvenience. Most of us who enjoy foreign holidays have decided to stay within the UK simply owing to the uncertainty of the travel requirements and risks involved.

 

Foreign travel at the moment carries risks and inconveniences not to say extra costs , if you are not prepared to comply/accept obligations and the risks its simple  Don't go

[Rivercider]

6 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

People can’t properly make decisions about how they live their lives if they aren’t given appropriate warnings.

 

I must be blind and deaf, because I am neither seeing nor hearing any clear message that the old and otherwise vulnerable need to be bl00dy careful at the moment, and certainly no message that others need to act to protect them.

 

Now, that might be because I’m not in the ‘target audience’, being in my early 60s and (pending the findings of a visit to the cardiologist tomorrow!) reasonably fit. But, I don’t think so.

 

I think HMG is very happy for ‘incautious feel good’ to pervade, rather than a bit of sensible caution, just right now.

 

You will notice how vaccination rates among <40yo are stubbornly stuck with c1:3 not vaccinated. That isn’t the case in other countries where the governments have continued to sound appropriate notes of caution.

 

 

I think many people have reverted to normal behaviour now.

 

Me and Mrs Rivercider have just come back from a short break in North Devon. The hotel was great, with precautions/screens/sanitiser etc, and the vast majority of staff wore masks. What surprised me was that the majority of the other guests did not wear masks (we did and we are in our early 60s), even though many were older than us, and included a SAGA party most of who must have been in their 70s and 80s.

 

I am still mask wearing when at work in the supermarket, many of the regular customers who say hello are older than me, and most are still wearing masks. Many of my co-workers have given up mask wearing though.

 

cheers

[fulton]

Have been in Germany the last two weeks, back in UK Monday, masks required in shops etc. also have to show covid pass in hotels restaurants etc. my NHS letter accepted without comment, my wife has the EU pass, the thermal bath spa in Bad kreuznach asked for pass and photo ID, some restaurants did no checks. The regs do have some odd results we visited a large bookshop in Dusseldorf, the cafe inside is very mixed up with the books, we had to show our covid pass to sit down for a coffee with no mask, while all around were customers with masks but no checks. Must also add I think the NHS is such a good thing for us, I have already had my invite and winter flu jab while my wife in the Germany health system has to look out herself for a Doctor who has some available, none available yet. Noted hardly any precautions being taken by, particularly younger people, out in the evening in Dusseldorf old town.

[Torper]

55 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

Not much about covid, just a grumble about an inconvenience.

 

For goodness sake, lots about covid, a bit about form filling and failures in the UK system on coming back into the country.  Have you read it?  For example:

 

The writer stated stated what the Spanish requirements were for entry to the country,  and the rules on the Franch ship relating to covid.

He noted how in Spain there was very high level of people wearing masks compared to the UK, outdoors as well as indoors;

He noted how his village in Spain, which had lost 3 residents due to covid, was dealing currently dealing with it supplying residents and schoolchildren with masks, and how a solitary outbreak in the village resulted in swift action with closure of all municipal activities and mass testing;

He remarked on how many more Spanish parliamentarians were setting an example and masking up compared to their UK counterparts.

He noted that Spain was now doing rather well with vaccinations (anything like that is of course anathema to Brexiteers)

He explained how very adult citizen received a very clear letter from the local authority, explaining their status as double vaccinated, and enclosing a hard copy of their digital EU vaccination certificate.

He said that testing is widely and readily available and the EU track-and-trace system is in evidence with QR-code posters everywhere, although unfortunatly the UK NHS system doesn'y work there.

He explained that when pupils return to school, they will still be wearing face masks, and taught in bubbles, and that the Spanish vaccination campaign to jab children of 12 and upwards began weeks ago.

All the above is covid related and while some might think it compares rather favourably with what is going on the UK at the moment, that's no reason to ignore it.  Inconvenience?  As far as I could see the only inconvenience that really bothered him was after he had returned to the UK and there was a mix up between the private PCR testing laboratory and Royal mail which appears to have left him £118 out of pocket.

And just in case you're wondering, Spain currently has 27 cases per 100.000 population.  England has 338.

 

DT

[hayfield]

22 minutes ago, Torper said:

 

For goodness sake, lots about covid, a bit about form filling and failures in the UK system on coming back into the country.  Have you read it?  For example:

 

The writer stated stated what the Spanish requirements were for entry to the country,  and the rules on the Franch ship relating to covid.

He noted how in Spain there was very high level of people wearing masks compared to the UK, outdoors as well as indoors;

He noted how his village in Spain, which had lost 3 residents due to covid, was dealing currently dealing with it supplying residents and schoolchildren with masks, and how a solitary outbreak in the village resulted in swift action with closure of all municipal activities and mass testing;

He remarked on how many more Spanish parliamentarians were setting an example and masking up compared to their UK counterparts.

He noted that Spain was now doing rather well with vaccinations (anything like that is of course anathema to Brexiteers)

He explained how very adult citizen received a very clear letter from the local authority, explaining their status as double vaccinated, and enclosing a hard copy of their digital EU vaccination certificate.

He said that testing is widely and readily available and the EU track-and-trace system is in evidence with QR-code posters everywhere, although unfortunatly the UK NHS system doesn'y work there.

He explained that when pupils return to school, they will still be wearing face masks, and taught in bubbles, and that the Spanish vaccination campaign to jab children of 12 and upwards began weeks ago.

All the above is covid related and while some might think it compares rather favourably with what is going on the UK at the moment, that's no reason to ignore it.  Inconvenience?  As far as I could see the only inconvenience that really bothered him was after he had returned to the UK and there was a mix up between the private PCR testing laboratory and Royal mail which appears to have left him £118 out of pocket.

And just in case you're wondering, Spain currently has 27 cases per 100.000 population.  England has 338.

 

DT

 

Their testing is a third of the UK's per 1m population, plus many other differences which makes the country a lower risk. Glad they kept away from places like Malaga or Benidorm where I assume things are very different

 

I have a friend who went to Croatia with his wife, totally accepted all the risks and costs involved and at that time there was a potential risk of rules changing and having to quarantine at their own expense upon their return

 

Not long ago many of those who regularly contributed to this thread agreed it was totally reckless to holiday abroad this year and poked fun at those desperate sun seekers. You have shown your true reasons by bringing up Brexit . 

 

I love going to Europe and we are seriously thinking of going to either Italy or Spain next year, this year it was too soon owing to the uncertainty in many areas 

[boxbrownie]

2 hours ago, Rivercider said:

I think many people have reverted to normal behaviour now.

 

Me and Mrs Rivercider have just come back from a short break in North Devon. The hotel was great, with precautions/screens/sanitiser etc, and the vast majority of staff wore masks. What surprised me was that the majority of the other guests did not wear masks (we did and we are in our early 60s), even though many were older than us, and included a SAGA party most of who must have been in their 70s and 80s.

 

I am still mask wearing when at work in the supermarket, many of the regular customers who say hello are older than me, and most are still wearing masks. Many of my co-workers have given up mask wearing though.

 

cheers

We live just outside a small holiday coastal town in southern Cornwall and when we have to pop into town for the pharmacy or urgent groceries I have noticed the obvious visitors/holiday makers are almost all without masks, very few to be spotted wandering around quite crowded small streets, even though a lot of shops still have signs requesting masks I see many exiting bare faced. Speaking to friends who work in the shops they have just about given up asking people to “mask up” due to the abuse or look of complete puzzlement on the customers faces.  I do see the obvious local older people (and some young actually) still wearing them, or at least around their neck ready to go even in the street, probably due to that fact the visitors aren’t.

[hayfield]

5 minutes ago, boxbrownie said:

We live just outside a small holiday coastal town in southern Cornwall and when we have to pop into town for the pharmacy or urgent groceries I have noticed the obvious visitors/holiday makers are almost all without masks, very few to be spotted wandering around quite crowded small streets, even though a lot of shops still have signs requesting masks I see many exiting bare faced. Speaking to friends who work in the shops they have just about given up asking people to “mask up” due to the abuse or look of complete puzzlement on the customers faces.  I do see the obvious local older people (and some young actually) still wearing them, or at least around their neck ready to go even in the street, probably due to that fact the visitors aren’t.

 

Hands up we came home 10 days ago, walking around the streets and open spaces we were mask less, however we happily complied visual requests to wear masks in shops, cafe's and restaurants, as did most others. Quite a start when we arrived back in Essex, far more people without masks. Where necessary I wear a mask, more for others benefit than protecting myself, but things are changing and I guess unless there are major issues people will be more relaxed

[burgundy]

5 hours ago, chris p bacon said:

For those that don't have time to read the link - In summary.

The first part is a Brexit rant as the couple live part time in Spain.  Spain has done wonderfully (and better) because it caught up with the UK's vaccination programme. The Mayor of the Spanish Town is a great guy even though he arranged a small festival that increased the C19 infection rate and the festival fireworks irritated a British Ex Pat (How dare he complain).

Coming back to the UK was irritating even though the same forms were required to enter Spain.

 

EU wonderful, UK Bad.

The End.

Dave

I am sorry that your reading of the piece has got hung up on the "B" word. 

I do not know the author, but I suspect that he has Spanish family and that recent events have caused him some personal disruption.   

I provided the link because I thought that the article provided quite a perceptive view of the way that Spain has been handling Covid. Our own main stream media tend not to look outside the UK very much and I found the article provided an interesting contrast. For the same reason, I find it interesting when our own "overseas correspondents" on this thread describe how things are going where they live.  

I have always found it useful to compare and contrast how different people/organisations/nations tackle problems, as there is almost always something to learn.    

Best wishes 

Eric 

[beast66606]

4 hours ago, Nick C said:

 

Great if you've got the choice - not so good for the millions who are being forced to go back to the office (or indeed the many more who had to remain in their workplaces all the way through) regardless of how unsafe it may be, or whether they feel comfortable or not.

 

My wife has had to work throughout, in a school with kids, only part time WFH - how great is that ?

[APOLLO]

1 hour ago, beast66606 said:

 

My wife has had to work throughout, in a school with kids, only part time WFH - how great is that ?

 

As did my wife, in food production, with (luckily) not one day off, and no holiday last or this year. We are spending holiday money on the house etc.

 

We take these essential workers for granted.

 

Brit15

[Hobby]

2 hours ago, burgundy said:

 

I am sorry that your reading of the piece has got hung up on the "B" word.

 

To be fair it was the author of the piece that is hung up on the B word, not Dave. I also read it as a thinly veiled rant about the way the vote went. Its caused them issues which have been compounded by Covid. 

 

 

As for the reply to my post from Nick, other than the initial lockdown I've had to work as normal on the trains and have had to adapt my working practices accordingly. People coming back to work now will have to do the same, it's nothing new. 

[ikcdab]

4 hours ago, Rivercider said:

think many people have reverted to normal behaviour now.

And jolly good too. This virus is not going to go away,  but its effects will diminish. We just can't carry on behaving like scared cats, we have to get on with normal life. The sooner all of the restrictions can go, the better.

[monkeysarefun]

So.....  our "little bit more  freedom" day arrives on Monday now NSW has hit 70% full vaccination of over-16's.  From then we fully vaccinated can can go to bars and restaurants  but not stand up, have 10 people over for a visit if we know that many people, go around outside without a mask on I think, plus some other stuff that doesnt apply to me about weddings and churches so I havent read up on it.

 

I can also travel to the local beaches and to the Blue Mountains   but regional travel is still a no no and police manning roadblocks out of the city will get annoye if I try , but I can at least  gaze westwards at the rest of the state from the scenic lookout at the top of Mt Victoria, like the early explorers did when they finally crossed the Blue Mountains.

 

We'll still need to wear masks inside, until 80% of us are fully stabbed, that'll be the week after next. Then I dont need a mask at work, but do if I go inside a shop., if I actually work in a shop -not sure.

 

We are meant to get some kind of vaccinne passport to show to bar owners and gym owners and those cheerful people who show you your table at restaurants but as usual thats not ready yet.

 

Because of our outbreak we in NSW are still banned from the rest of Australia because they think we are all infected despite our actual case rate being 0.87 per 100000 - but after months and months of us being covid-free  any case at all  freaks people out. 

 

First dose rates are in the high 90%  across much of Sydney - some council areas are at 98.8%  so I'd assume in the next few weeks the second dose rate will reflect this, however the regions are lagging as are other states, dragging our national vaxx rate to around 50%.

 

  At that rate international arrivals and departures aren't going to happen for a while yet - I think its flagged to start when the national vax rate is 80%.

 

If nothing else, this malarkey has shown me one thing - if holding up a bank dont just use a handkerchief over your face like they do in old westerns and gangster  movies, cos there hasnt been a   single person wearing a mask that I havent been able to recognise.

 

[chris p bacon]

3 hours ago, burgundy said:

Dave

I am sorry that your reading of the piece has got hung up on the "B" word. 

 

Eric 

 

Thanks for the reply Eric.

 I didn't get hung up on the 'B' word but the writer obviously did.  It was obvious that the couple liked living in Spain and their time spent there was obviously curtailed with the 90/180 day time limit.

 I don't intend travelling abroad for some time, but several that work for and with me have taken a trip abroad to France and Spain in the last few weeks and nearly all had problems going but only 1 had them coming back. The writer claimed that all was well when in reality all countries have got issues.

I do agree that the media don't actually give information for around the world, but luckily those overseas members here do give the situation where they are, and without a political spin.

[Andy Hayter]

8 hours ago, chris p bacon said:

 

That's exactly how I read it. It compares the UK to another country from a perspective which is clear from the start is not a balanced one.

 

Your posts have read in much the same way to me, but after reading many I'm able to see which viewpoint you're coming from.

 

I fear that in condemning the Brexit balance in the piece (which I fully agree is blatantly biased) you are in danger in throwing the baby out with the bath water.

 

It is clear from the piece that the writer has the second home in a small community.  Much of what he writes regarding Covid does completely gel with me as an inhabitant of a small commune in France.  Is all of that transferrable to a big agglomeration?  All certainly not but large parts probably yes and in most of France certainly yes.

 

Our mayor did check with second home owners about their covid status when they arrived from abroad.  It's a small commune as I showed above so that was easy to do.  Would it happen in a big town?  Probably not unless someone had concerns that they specifically raised with the mayor.

Mask wearing levels are very high indoors and out.  The vast majority do adhere strictly to the rules and that applies in towns and cities as well as our little rural village.   People are taken to task for not wearing their mask correctly covering both mouth and nose.  

Cases of C19 are jumped on very quickly - as noted in neighbouring communes - and this probably explains why the virus has not migrated to our village despite children of course gathering from neighbouring communes when they go to school.  

Vaccine certificates are required for gatherings, entry to cafes and restaurants - even outside on the terrace, cinema entry etc..

 

In short it is a world away from what I see described in the UK and expressed by some here.  And yet in many respects life here seems to go on more normally than I see in the UK.  Vulnerable people don't seem to feel the same level of fear and need to hide away.  Social events are going on (with controls) but of course the standard French greeting of cheek kissing or hand shaking has been curtailed.  People do stand further away from one another than the past but they still meet up, discuss the meaning of life, congratulate one another, share a glass of their favourite tipple etc..

 

 

Look past the B bias and read the article again focusing on the Covid elements and especially those relating to their time in Spain.

[Rivercider]

7 hours ago, ikcdab said:

And jolly good too. This virus is not going to go away,  but its effects will diminish. We just can't carry on behaving like scared cats, we have to get on with normal life. The sooner all of the restrictions can go, the better.

I quite agree that we will learn to live with Covid in the long term.

 

I did seem somewhat ironic though to see and hear folk complaining of delays to food orders, and elsewhere muttering about cafes and restaurants with reduced opening hours (because of staff shortages due to Covid) while at the same time not wearing masks indoors!

 

I have not been hiding behind the sofa but fortunately been able continue to work shelf stacking throughout the pandemic, without catching Covid - so far. We have been able to take several short hotel breaks in the last 4 months, wearing a mask indoors or on the bus or train is no big ask,

 

cheers

[Dunsignalling]

12 hours ago, ikcdab said:

And jolly good too. This virus is not going to go away,  but its effects will diminish. We just can't carry on behaving like scared cats, we have to get on with normal life. The sooner all of the restrictions can go, the better.

However, far too many people are behaving as if that has already happened whereas, the thing "becoming gentler" to any meaningful extent is still (at best) probably a year or two away. The fact is that, in the UK, deaths from C19 are still averaging around 1,000  a week.  

 

The problem with so many pretending its all over is that their conduct is making it harder for more vulnerable  people to regain any kind of freedom.

 

Wearing a mask in appropriate circumstances, and continuing to give others a bit of elbow room isn't "behaving like a scared cat", it's just taking sensible, and very modest, counter measures against what remains a very real threat.

 

Or is the real problem that the "mental health" of the touchy-feely gadabouts is so fragile that doing so for another winter will drive them over the edge?

 

John 

Edited October 8, 2021 by Dunsignalling
of not if...

[Nearholmer]

It would be interesting to have an informed/knowledgeable ‘unpacking’ of what this oft-repeated ‘the virus will always be with us’ phrase is likely to mean in practice, because at the moment it seems to be not much more than a truism/platitude, it being blindingly obvious that covid-19 isn’t going to magically disappear, or be eradicated by interventions.

 

My barely informed guess is that it will take a good few years (decades?) for the combination of immunity acquired naturally in childhood plus (hopefully) ‘downhill mutation’ to render it no more threatening than the other coronaviruses that we live with, so until then, what?

 

Vaccination. But, this isn’t like vaccinating against the ‘flu, or anything else really, because vaccinating the old and vulnerable isn’t sufficient. If that is all that is done, and lots of cases bubble away in the rest of the population, it simply ‘breaks through’ and gets to the old and vulnerable, even when they are vaccinated.

 

So, either vaccination at a very high uptake across the population, which frankly we are barely achieving in the heat of a pandemic, so will really struggle to achieve in the cool of the long run, or periodic (probably winter) outbreaks of some severity, which necessitate ‘special measures’ (aka ‘restrictions’) of one kind or another, or decide that it’s OK for the old and vulnerable to have to curtail their lives while the young and fit get on with theirs.

 

And, hopefully, further medical developments that improve vaccine performance in various ways, or deliver really good and cheap ‘anti virals’ that allow it to be effectively treated, if caught.

 

Does anyone know of an informed analysis of this, to confirm or deny my surmise?