Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Dunsignalling]

27 minutes ago, 'CHARD said:

 

Out of interest, what would you say to someone without this saintly halo? 

Nothing at all, just give them a very wide berth....

[Neil]

Reported in the Guardian at the weekend; fears in Germany of a fourth wave. From the article vaccination rates in the country have stagnated and lag behind the rest of Europe. Coupled with a dismantling of pop up testing stations and lower staffing rates in hospitals experts have worries for winter. 

 

Looking at vaccination rates on the Our World in Data website Germany is a way behind the best in Europe. There is perhaps some cause for worry here in the UK as while we have a higher percentage of citizens vaccinated than Germany we're only a bit ahead.

 

Fully vaccinated    -    UK 67.02%  -  Germany  66.13%

Partially vaccinated - UK 6.27%  -    Germany 2.68%

 

If we assume that those who have had one dose (partial vaccination) go on to have a second jab then the gap between the UK and Germany will open up a bit (69% vs 73%) in the UK's favour but we're still clearly behind countries like Portugal and Spain. It would be interesting to know how they've achieved such high levels as there are maybe lessons for us here.

[Hobby]

16 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Nothing at all, just give them a very wide berth....

 

@'CHARD as he said!

[hayfield]

20 hours ago, Neil said:

Reported in the Guardian at the weekend; fears in Germany of a fourth wave. From the article vaccination rates in the country have stagnated and lag behind the rest of Europe. Coupled with a dismantling of pop up testing stations and lower staffing rates in hospitals experts have worries for winter. 

 

Looking at vaccination rates on the Our World in Data website Germany is a way behind the best in Europe. There is perhaps some cause for worry here in the UK as while we have a higher percentage of citizens vaccinated than Germany we're only a bit ahead.

 

Fully vaccinated    -    UK 67.02%  -  Germany  66.13%

Partially vaccinated - UK 6.27%  -    Germany 2.68%

 

If we assume that those who have had one dose (partial vaccination) go on to have a second jab then the gap between the UK and Germany will open up a bit (69% vs 73%) in the UK's favour but we're still clearly behind countries like Portugal and Spain. It would be interesting to know how they've achieved such high levels as there are maybe lessons for us here.

 

Our rates are so low now as we include younger (12+) children, I have no idea what ages Germany use. We have very high rates with the most at risk

 

The one thing about covid and its variants is it always finds a way in, see Australia China etc, plus we came out of lockdown earlier than most in Europe, their curve will be behind ours. On purpose the UK wanted the next covid spike prior to the flu season. Time will tell it it was the correct call

[Neil]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

 

Our rates are so low now as we include younger (12+) children, I have no idea what ages Germany use. We have very high rates with the most at risk

 

The one thing about covid and its variants is it always finds a way in, see Australia China etc, plus we came out of lockdown earlier than most in Europe, their curve will be behind ours. On purpose the UK wanted the next covid spike prior to the flu season. Time will tell it it was the correct call

 

The figures quote in the Our World in Data website are percentages of the total population for each and every country to allow direct comparisons to be made.

[Neil]

A couple of bits currently in the news.

 

Boris Johnson faces criticism for haphazard approach to mask wearing at COP 26.

 

Also you may have caught the news that Sir Jeremy Farrar has resigned from Sage. Here's the interpretation from Newsnight's Nick Watt. Worth watching to the end for the link back to Boris and mask wearing.

[hayfield]

43 minutes ago, Neil said:

A couple of bits currently in the news.

 

Boris Johnson faces criticism for haphazard approach to mask wearing at COP 26.

 

Also you may have caught the news that Sir Jeremy Farrar has resigned from Sage. Here's the interpretation from Newsnight's Nick Watt. Worth watching to the end for the link back to Boris and mask wearing.

 

 

When I heard this morning what I think you are purporting to highlight, I took it as he has given his thoughts for the coming winter months, therefore he has done his bit and not leaving in a huff. There are a lot of things the cabinet have to consider when deciding what action to take and one of the biggest things was the modelling that was forecasting a decline in infections, I think Sajid Javid is a bit concerned about a rebound and has been quite vocal about taking further action if needed. Infection rates are down 10% over the past 7 days and well below the 50,000 number we saw 2 weeks ago and no where near the 100,000 per day the doom mongers said might happen

 

As for sitting next to Mr Attenborough, I guess Boris has been fully tested daily so more likely to catch it than pass it on.  Still if this is the worst that can be moaned about they cant be doing that bad.

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Neil said:

 

The figures quote in the Our World in Data website are percentages of the total population for each and every country to allow direct comparisons to be made.

 

But its been proved a direct comparison is very hard if not impossible to make

 

If you look at the figures for our hospitalizations and deaths, time and time again we are being told the patients concerned are mostly all unvaccinated. Yet many for whatever reason fail to act. Vaccination centres are closing down or reducing hours simply due to no one turning up

 

Figures for Chelmsford yesterday 96 1st vaccinated 23 second dose. I assume an influx of school children 

[Hobby]

When I visited my local vaccination centre last night I had to queue at all the various stages so it seems round here their still being used a lot! Feeling a bit under the weather today, certainly not well enough to do a safety critical job, so currently off sick for a day or two.

[monkeysarefun]

23 hours ago, Neil said:

It would be interesting to know how they've achieved such high levels as there are maybe lessons for us here.

Note what the Northern Territory has announced here. If you work at a job that involves contact with others you need to get the first shot by 13th November or you can't go to work.  No ifs or buts. If you ignore  the law it'll be a $5000 fine.

 

Only exemptions are extremely narrow and are all medically based, no free passes for religious mumbo jumbo or libertarian nonsense.

 

Similar laws in the other states have helped Vax levels to climb.  For instance in  NSW travel to the regional areas is still banned and will be  until the over 16 Vax rate is 95%  - NSW has 88% of over 16s fully vaccinated, 93% first dose so this threshold is expected to be achieved in late November. Other states have similar carrots or sticks and   are at either  similar rates or are catching up. 

 

No time  for dicking around with kid gloves!

Edited November 3, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[AY Mod]

27 minutes ago, hayfield said:

As for sitting next to Mr Attenborough, I guess Boris has been fully tested daily so more likely to catch it than pass it on.  Still if this is the worst that can be moaned about they cant be doing that bad.

 

As I said...

  

On 29/10/2021 at 11:24, AY Mod said:

I completely agree that there is an absence of any real leadership or role modelling

 

And respect.

[Nearholmer]

54 minutes ago, hayfield said:

we are being told the patients concerned are mostly all unvaccinated.

And, not provided with easily accessible statistics to back that up.

 

My suspicion is that the laws of numbers mean that, actually, the proportion of those getting really ill, and those dying from it, who are fully vaccinated is quite high, rather than tiny as is implied. Why? Because age is still a really important determinant of outcomes, and the really elderly are overwhelmingly vaccinated, while the large numbers of unvaccinated are young.

 

If my suspicion is correct, I can see why such news would be ‘soft pedalled’, because it could so easily be spun/misinterpreted as saying that vaccination is no protection, however incorrect that might be. Semi-complicated numerical stories can be difficult to turn into simple sound-bites.

[Reorte]

2 hours ago, Neil said:

 

The figures quote in the Our World in Data website are percentages of the total population for each and every country to allow direct comparisons to be made.

Not necessarily - the effect of concentrating on the most at risk is different than if the same number is spread evenly amongst all age groups.

 

As in most things numerical comparisons that don't take in to account every single detail (and none ever realistically can) can be a good initial approximation but there are usually additional arguments to be made on top of them.

[Reorte]

42 minutes ago, monkeysarefun said:

Only exemptions are extremely narrow and are all medically based, no free passes for religious mumbo jumbo or libertarian nonsense.

 

You can certainly argue that the situation is a case of the ends justify the means, a necessary measure, and are thus more important than the libertarian concerns but to handwave them away as nonsense is... disturbing.

[Dunsignalling]

29 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

You can certainly argue that the situation is a case of the ends justify the means, a necessary measure, and are thus more important than the libertarian concerns but to handwave them away as nonsense is... disturbing.

Though nobody is locked into Northern Territory and anyone who is religiously or politically offended by the policy is free to move somewhere less restrictive.

 

Just not the UK, please, we have enough home-grown idiots to put up with.

 

John

Edited November 3, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Reorte]

3 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Though nobody is locked into Northern Territory and anyone who is religiously or politically offended by the policy is free to move somewhere less restrictive.

 

Just not the UK, please, we have enough home-grown idiots to put up with.

 

I was neither criticising nor supporting any particular course of action, just being very disturbed by the tone of the dismissal - it very much gave the impression of someone who simply doesn't care about it rather than someone who thinks the current situation very much justifies restrictions and measures that in more normal times would be regarded as unacceptable. That sort of outlook worries me more than the couldn't care less selfish idiots.

[monkeysarefun]

41 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

You can certainly argue that the situation is a case of the ends justify the means, a necessary measure, and are thus more important than the libertarian concerns but to handwave them away as nonsense is... disturbing.

Hey  Im always up for a bit of libertarianism. Whatever floats ya boat. And I've read that many libertarians, especially in academia  support vaccine mandates and use libertarian arguments to state their case.

 

The nonsense I'm referring to is limited to the argument many spout  - the crap one where  they are entitled to choose whether or not to get vaccinated, that their individual freedoms trump societies entitlement to a safe and  healthy environment.

 

Many countries accommodate  or tolerate these views and good on them if that's how their government wants to  works things.

 

 Australia however  is home to the oldest continuous culture on earth, many members of which reside in remote communities which are incredibly vulnerable and would be devastated in the event the virus broke out amongst them. Therefore every one of us here has the  responsibility,  especially given how crap we've treated them in every other respect - stole  their land and  their kids and so on - to not stuff this one up too and to keep them safe.

 

No whiny d1ckhead has a right to demand he not get the vaccine just cos he reckons  his perceived "freedom" comes before  the life and health of an entire ancient culture. That's how it's generally seen here anyway.

Edited November 3, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[Reorte]

OK if you're talking about specific people with specific attitudes rather than calling libertarian values in general nonsense that can be thrown away without any thought or concern or discussion when things start looking bad then there's no need for us to argue.

[Neil]

4 hours ago, Neil said:

 

The figures quote in the Our World in Data website are percentages of the total population for each and every country to allow direct comparisons to be made.

 

2 hours ago, hayfield said:

 

But its been proved a direct comparison is very hard if not impossible to make

 

If you look at the figures for our hospitalizations and deaths, time and time again we are being told the patients concerned are mostly all unvaccinated. Yet many for whatever reason fail to act. Vaccination centres are closing down or reducing hours simply due to no one turning up

 

Figures for Chelmsford yesterday 96 1st vaccinated 23 second dose. I assume an influx of school children 

 

1 hour ago, Reorte said:

Not necessarily - the effect of concentrating on the most at risk is different than if the same number is spread evenly amongst all age groups.

 

As in most things numerical comparisons that don't take in to account every single detail (and none ever realistically can) can be a good initial approximation but there are usually additional arguments to be made on top of them.

 

Gentlemen, even if we looked at our home towns we would see the demographic subtleties and different strictures in place giving different levels of risk and outcomes. What I like about the Our Word in Data statistics is that they measure one simple metric, how well each country has done in getting its population vaccinated. It allows for a simple direct comparison.

[Darlington_Shed]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

And, not provided with easily accessible statistics to back that up.

Most recent statistics (to July) can be found here. The basic figures are hard to argue with, I think:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021

['CHARD]

4 minutes ago, Darlington_Shed said:

Most recent statistics (to July) can be found here. The basic figures are hard to argue with, I think:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021

 

The data set starts on 2nd January, at which point what percentage of the population was vaccinated?  The data ends three months ago, so to intimate that the figures reflect what's happening now vis-a-vis vaccinated and non-vaccinated is to say the least tenuous.

 

If the data covered the past three months, rather than this historic period it could shed light on what's happening now, or at least indicate recent trends in our hospitals. 

[Nearholmer]

The basic fact that being vaccinated offers great protection is well supported by that, but that isn’t what I’m querying.

 

I’m querying whether, now, “the vast majority of the deaths are of unvaccinated people”.
 

Those figures run out in July, and there were some released for August, given in terms of “per 100k”, rather than absolute numbers, but I can’t find recent figures split by vaccination status.
 

Given that among older age groups, who are still at greatest prey to the bug, the vast majority of people are vaccinated, I don’t think it can be true that the vast majority of deaths are among the unvaccinated - there simply aren’t enough of them to permit that.

Way back up thread I seem to remember running the numbers to show what I meant.

[Reorte]

24 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

The basic fact that being vaccinated offers great protection is well supported by that, but that isn’t what I’m querying.

 

I’m querying whether, now, “the vast majority of the deaths are of unvaccinated people”.

 Found this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand24september2021

 

I've not looked through it but it might answer the question (for up to 24th September).

Edited November 3, 2021 by Reorte

[hayfield]

2 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

And, not provided with easily accessible statistics to back that up.

 

My suspicion is that the laws of numbers mean that, actually, the proportion of those getting really ill, and those dying from it, who are fully vaccinated is quite high, rather than tiny as is implied. Why? Because age is still a really important determinant of outcomes, and the really elderly are overwhelmingly vaccinated, while the large numbers of unvaccinated are young.

 

If my suspicion is correct, I can see why such news would be ‘soft pedalled’, because it could so easily be spun/misinterpreted as saying that vaccination is no protection, however incorrect that might be. Semi-complicated numerical stories can be difficult to turn into simple sound-bites.

 

 

It was a BBC Interview with the head of North East London NHS, who actually said nearly all of the patients in their hospitals with covid were unvaccinated. It was on the BBC London news, I think either last week or the week before.  The interview is available on iPlayer and it was part of a story about the low uptake in this region for the vaccine.

 

I think it was you who stated many weeks back that when (for arguments sake) 30 % of patients come from 95% of the  of the (vaccinated) population and 70% come from the minority 5%, who are not vaccinated the numbers speak for themselves

 

The message on the London news broadcasts have been the same for months, the majority of patients in London hospitals are those who are unvaccinated and are getting younger. I am inclined to accept first hand experience from health professionals, than a watered down flow chart. I guess where you live the situation on vaccinated people is quite different therefore the effects of covid will differ.

 

Again it has been said right from the start, the vaccine does not guarantee a person will not contract covid, but it has excellent qualities of prevention serious complications or even death. Also most respiratory diseases can be fatal for those with serious health issues. So yes some who are fully vaccinated will die from it 

Edited November 3, 2021 by hayfield

[PenrithBeacon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/03/jonathan-van-tam-voices-concerns-over-increasing-covid-death-rate

 

This a concern, I'm thinking quite seriously of opting out of model railway shows, where previously I was pretty optimistic