Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[hayfield]

11 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Interesting bit on the news earlier (though I didn't catch absolutely all of it) included a doctor's comment that he'd noticed the Delta variant has been hitting previously healthy 40-to-50-year-olds harder of late.

 

With so many in the formerly most-vulnerable groups now well-protected, might we be seeing the virus adapting itself to attack others more effectively?

 

John

 

John

 

I saw two or three weeks ago when the older children were more affected, this age group was also a bit high on the heat map. The latest heat map I have seen shows its now more in younger children and the 30-40 age group is now higher that those above them, parents catching covid from their children ? 

 

Simply the vaccines do not stop everyone catching covid,  thankfully they are much better at stopping it get to the severe condition. 

[Neil]

5 hours ago, hayfield said:

..... Oxford -Astra Zeneca vaccine is back in the headlines in one paper, latest data shows that its much better at maintaining T cells than the other vaccines, the best results is when the Oxford- Astra Zeneca vaccine if followed by Pfizer.

 

The columnist states the row between the EU and Astra Zeneca may have cost thousands of lives, as they believe that the UK has been shielded from the worst effects of this latest wave due to our speedy and effective vaccination drive ....

 

I think that this is the article. I read it too and it does give hope that the UK may escape some of what is happening in Europe at the moment. However it is heavily caveated with the word 'may' peppering the article. Also there's the anomaly of Spain to consider which like France, Germany and Belgium didn't give the AZ vaccine to under 65s in the early stages, but where infection rates are low. 

[Nearholmer]

3 hours ago, hayfield said:

The latest heat map I have seen shows its now more in younger children and the 30-40 age group is now higher that those above them, parents catching covid from their children ? 

 

I keep thinking that the heat maps show England as a whole following trends that have been visible where I live I Milton Keynes for several weeks.

 

Here is ours for the past three months:

From start of school in September, you can see rates getting being very high first in younger teenagers, hopping to their parents, spreading down to younger siblings, while also spreading out from the parents up and down through adult age-ranges (shopping, theatres, cinemas etc?).

 

It is now absolutely rife locally, especially in schools, and I have both of our two (11 and 14yo) at home showing “could possibly be” symptoms. LFT says “no”, but I’ve just taken them for PCR, because the schools are telling us that they’ve seen a lot of instances of younger children with very mild symptoms (effectively just seeming more tired than usual) testing -ve on LFT, then +ve on PCR.

 

My instinct is that even if this time it proves simply to be a cold, it is only a matter of time before they catch it.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Dunsignalling]

Something is beginning to scare me about heat maps. Certain groups have been showing high rates for some considerable time.

 

If post-infection immunity is really a thing, and it lasts a significant length of time, shouldn't the rates in some of those high groups be coming down, at least a bit, by now? 

 

If I'm jumping the gun, how soon should we expect them to do so.

 

John

Edited November 24, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Nearholmer]

If it’s burning at 1000/100k.week in a particular age group, it would take two years at that rate for everyone in that group to catch it ……. Put another way, I think it can burn fast for months before simmering down, and if acquired immunity decays significantly within that period, it could go on simmering for a very long time.

 

Thats what I meant on a previous posting when I talked about a simmering endemic.

 

I don’t think it implies that a person catching it a second time around is in for a really bad time, they should be able to fight it off without it being too bad, but catch it they possibly could.

Edited November 24, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, Neil said:

 

I think that this is the article. I read it too and it does give hope that the UK may escape some of what is happening in Europe at the moment. However it is heavily caveated with the word 'may' peppering the article. Also there's the anomaly of Spain to consider which like France, Germany and Belgium didn't give the AZ vaccine to under 65s in the early stages, but where infection rates are low. 

"May" has to be in there for a news report because the future is unknown, at best you can estimate various probabilities for various outcomes.

[Bernard Lamb]

6 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

Something to be borne in mind about strategic decision-making in the public sector is that it is genuinely more complex than in the private sector.
 

 

Until a war starts.

Even the MOD get their skates on when that happens.

Or, wearing my cynics hat, when it is getting close to the end if the financial year and they have  LOTS of cash left.

In both cases a meeting at a pub between Aylesbury and Bicester got through what would in normal circumstances have taken 6 months in a couple of hours.

Bernard

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

If it’s burning at 1000/100k.week in a particular age group, it would take two years at that rate for everyone in that group to catch it ……. Put another way, I think it can burn fast for months before simmering down, and if acquired immunity decays significantly within that period, it could go on simmering for a very long time.

 

Thats what I meant on a previous posting when I talked about a simmering endemic.

 

I don’t think it implies that a person catching it a second time around is in for a really bad time, they should be able to fight it off without it being too bad, but catch it they possibly could.

I read a report a week or two ago that one in five who contract the virus don't have any antibodies afterwards. That presumably means they could get it again after quite a short time.

 

I do know someone who's had it twice, about five months apart and the second time it was less severe, though still not pleasant.

 

John

Edited November 24, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Hobby]

9 hours ago, hayfield said:

Oxford -Astra Zeneca vaccine is back in the headlines in one paper, latest data shows that its much better at maintaining T cells than the other vaccines, the best results is when the Oxford- Astra Zeneca vaccine is followed by Pfizer.

 

Good, that's exactly what I've had, A-Z for the first ones and just had a Pfizer booster!

[lapford34102]

4 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

I read a report a week or two ago that one in five who contract the virus don't have any antibodies afterwards.

This might explain why - T cells

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53764640

2 hours ago, Hobby said:

Good, that's exactly what I've had, A-Z for the first ones and just had a Pfizer booster!

Same here, adds a tad more confidence.

Stu

[Nearholmer]

My good lady has had that combo, and I was a tad disappointed to discover on the day that my booster was to be moderna. I asked about what the logic was, and was told that it was the luck of the draw, each vaccination centre gets given whatever is available and sometimes they finish a batch of one, and swap to the other, part way through the day.

 

There is an element of “so far” about all these findings though, in that knowledge of precisely how our systems respond to the different combinations is being built-up as time goes by. A couple of weeks ago, one would have felt happiest having had Pfizer as the initial doses, because it appeared that it was significantly better than AZ at preventing one catching the bug. There is a recent study reported on the ONS site that shows Pfizer cut chances of catching it to c20%, whereas AZ reduced it to c95% compared with unvaccinated control group. Both hugely reduced probability of severe illness. However, even the import of all that isn’t totally clear, because the demographic of the recipients of the two was different, and the apparent advantage of Pfizer may have been down to the people that received it having led more cloistered lives over the past few months.

[PenrithBeacon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/24/scientists-warn-of-new-covid-variant-with-high-number-of-mutations?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[hayfield]

Reading yesterdays data from Europe makes chilling reading Germany's near 75,000 new cases coupled with the day before topping 100,000 deaths and nearing 4,000 serious critical deaths

 

France now sees cases climbing to high levels. Netherlands as well as Belgium seeing very high infections. Germany is now helping out the Netherlands with treating critically ill patients 

 

Papers say Portugal, Greece and Italy are preparing further preventative actions, mainly about restrictions on those who are unvaccinated. France is about to increase the booster roll out

 

Not too long ago a lot was made about how well the EU were doing in rolling out their vaccination program, according to the European press the EU's average is nearer 60%. Yes there were some countries that did well and looking at the figures that would explain why some states are bucking the trend, lets hope the message gets through about the need to protect both ourselves and others. Perhaps the UK should be redoubling its efforts to encourage the better take up of both the vaccine and the boosters where needed

 

We are up to 88% first doses, 80% 2nd and now 28% boosters and this is from age 12 +. It seems the message is getting through a bit better

[Nearholmer]

37 minutes ago, hayfield said:

according to the European press the EU's average is nearer 60%

Well, they got their figures wrong, if they’re saying that.

 

Herewith 1st, 2nd, and 3rd doses, U.K. vs EU as recorded by Statista to 23/11,which uses official figures, as does its competitor WorldView.

 

 

Figures are % total population, and, as you can see, the real differentiator appears to be third (booster) doses, plus, probably, that vast numbers of people in this country have been in inoculated by catching it over the past four or five months.

 

Some EU countries are ahead of us on 2nd dose as a % of entire population, France and Ireland for instance, while Germany is almost exactly the same as the EU average. It’s the Eastern and some of the Southern EU nations that pull the overall %s down.

 

Whatever is going wrong in the Netherlands, it doesn’t seem to be due to a laggardly 1st and 2nd vaccination programme, which despite all the fuss made by libertarians has actually reached more of the population than ours.

 

 

The U.K. may have been clever in averting a huge late-autumn surge, or it may just have been lucky so far or, by the end of the winter, it may turn out that we’ve done worse overall, by precipitating a long, drawn-out, steady toll, rather than a sharp peak. 
 

In very local news: both offspring had negative PCR test results. They still aren’t well, but it must be an industrial-strength cold.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 25, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Hobby]

Are you comparing like with like? Those figures are the whole population but his are over twelves so they are right for what they are.

Edited November 25, 2021 by Hobby

[Nearholmer]

I get that Hayfield was citing 12+ for the UK. It was more the European press that he cited that I was quibbling with.

 

Personally, I will now only look at "total population" %s, because all the other ways of expressing things are more or less confusing or meaningless. Even "total population" has to be handled with care, because some countries have a far younger demographic than others; Italy seems to be entirely populated by pensioners, for instance.

[Oldddudders]

Looking at yesterday's French figures, infections were 32,591, so rather fewer than UK's 43,676. But hospital admissions - yes, they always lag infections - were only up by net 240, although actually 662 patients were admitted, but 422 went home. Net 28 more people went into ICU, and 80 died. The male/female split in deaths remains at 58% male, 42% female, which is quite a difference. Data on age-bands is limited, but total numbers of hospital Covid deaths under age 40 are rather less than 500, while e.g. 70-79 are 20,943, and 80-89 are 34,789. 

 

I hope to go back to France next Tuesday, and to get my flu-jab soon after. My third dose isn't due until 28.12.21, but I expect to be in the UK for the festive season, so it will be mid-Jan for that. 

[Andy Hayter]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

 

 

Herewith 1st, 2nd, and 3rd doses, U.K. vs EU as recorded by Statista to 23/11,which uses official figures, as does its competitor WorldView.

 

 

Figures are % total population, and, as you can see, the real differentiator appears to be third (booster) doses, plus, probably, that vast numbers of people in this country have been in inoculated by catching it over the past four or five months.

 

 

Part of that apparent reluctance (?) for the booster is simply because the EU started bulk vaccination later than the UK.  My booster is theoretically due from Boxing Day but is already planned for January.  I haven't seen todays announcement (possibly still going on now) but the media betting was on the booster being brought forward from being between 6 months and 6 months and 5 weeks to a new 5 months start point - no bets on the end point.

 

The importance of the end point being that if the vaccination is carried out within the timescale indicated, the vaccine passport is updated.  The inference being that it might become permanently invalidated if not done within the window.

[hayfield]

52 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

I get that Hayfield was citing 12+ for the UK. It was more the European press that he cited that I was quibbling with.

 

Personally, I will now only look at "total population" %s, because all the other ways of expressing things are more or less confusing or meaningless. Even "total population" has to be handled with care, because some countries have a far younger demographic than others; Italy seems to be entirely populated by pensioners, for instance.

 

 

The quote was from a Euronews.com ( I think) article, which was including all EU states where as the figures given by the press a few weeks back were from selected EU states, most with much smaller populations. Had the vaccine been taken up in such large numbers across the EU perhaps this spike would have been lower. Plus at that time we had just started to vaccinate younger people which skewed our results at that time. I did add they quoted Boris saying he hoped to vaccinate 10m prior to Christmas, when we had actually already vaccinated 15m by that day. Another report mentioned both the Netherlands and Belgium were struggling to process covid tests

 

To be quite honest politicians and civil servants from all countries are constantly spinning statistics, will we ever know the true figures. I guess in the end registered deaths may hold a more accurate answer

 

It may be one thing in that we were slow at was vaccinating younger people, we were stuck in a debate as to the benefits of doing so, medical benefits to those who if caught it would only get a minor infection,  subsequently found out they may be more susceptible to catching long covid, the effects of missing schooling and them infecting older people were added into the final conclusion

[durham light infantry]

49 minutes ago, hayfield said:

subsequently found out they may be more susceptible to catching long covid, 

 

 

You don't catch Long Covid. Long Covid is the post infection damage to the body after the initial covid trauma has passed.

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, Andy Hayter said:

Part of that apparent reluctance (?) for the booster

I personally read no reluctance, merely a fact that a lower % of people have received one thus far.

 

To me, when looking country-by-country at differences in vaccination statistics up to second vaccination, they cannot explain why much of Western Europe is seeing steep increases in cases while the U.K. isn’t, for the simple reason that, up to second vaccination, the vaccination rates are so similar. Eastern Europe, yes, but not Western.

 

Something else is at play: the pace of our booster campaign; inoculation by catching it; luck; a new variant in Europe; a rebound affect after release of lockdown; I don’t know. But it can’t, as Hayfield seems to suggest, be down to different vaccination rates up to second dose.

[Oldddudders]

2 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

Part of that apparent reluctance (?) for the booster is simply because the EU started bulk vaccination later than the UK.  My booster is theoretically due from Boxing Day but is already planned for January.  I haven't seen todays announcement (possibly still going on now) but the media betting was on the booster being brought forward from being between 6 months and 6 months and 5 weeks to a new 5 months start point - no bets on the end point.

 

The importance of the end point being that if the vaccination is carried out within the timescale indicated, the vaccine passport is updated.  The inference being that it might become permanently invalidated if not done within the window.

From Saturday, all adults in France can have a booster 5, not 6, months after their second dose. 

 

https://www.lci.fr/societe/covid-19-cinquieme-vague-vaccination-la-dose-de-rappel-de-vaccin-accessible-a-tous-les-adultes-des-samedi-27-novembre-2202909.html

[hayfield]

28 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

I personally read no reluctance, merely a fact that a lower % of people have received one thus far.

 

To me, when looking country-by-country at differences in vaccination statistics up to second vaccination, they cannot explain why much of Western Europe is seeing steep increases in cases while the U.K. isn’t, for the simple reason that, up to second vaccination, the vaccination rates are so similar. Eastern Europe, yes, but not Western.

 

Something else is at play: the pace of our booster campaign; inoculation by catching it; luck; a new variant in Europe; a rebound affect after release of lockdown; I don’t know. But it can’t, as Hayfield seems to suggest, be down to different vaccination rates up to second dose.

 

What we have seen this year is that countries which have managed to subdue the virus in the past have started to have problems, covid finds its way round the defences eventually.

 

It might be that the UK were ahead of this latest wave and suffered the latest it early, when it could be managed better. Or perhaps we were able to get more people vaccinated and better able to cope with catching it, now we have the boosters doing their thing. Certainly in Germany its worst in the southern area where apparently there is more vaccination hesitancy, this must tell part of the story, but then we have Belgium and the Netherlands being hit hard

 

It may well be we cannot stop people catching the infection, but if they have antibodies they can better cope with the infection. Look at our infection rates, they are still very high, but the worst affects have been limited to some extent.  

[maico]

10 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

My good lady has had that combo, and I was a tad disappointed to discover on the day that my booster was to be moderna. I asked about what the logic was, and was told that it was the luck of the draw, each vaccination centre gets given whatever is available and sometimes they finish a batch of one, and swap to the other, part way through the day.

 

There is an element of “so far” about all these findings though, in that knowledge of precisely how our systems respond to the different combinations is being built-up as time goes by. A couple of weeks ago, one would have felt happiest having had Pfizer as the initial doses, because it appeared that it was significantly better than AZ at preventing one catching the bug. There is a recent study reported on the ONS site that shows Pfizer cut chances of catching it to c20%, whereas AZ reduced it to c95% compared with unvaccinated control group. Both hugely reduced probability of severe illness. However, even the import of all that isn’t totally clear, because the demographic of the recipients of the two was different, and the apparent advantage of Pfizer may have been down to the people that received it having led more cloistered lives over the past few months.

 

Some data from Canada about mixing AZ and mRNA and gaps between 1st and 2nd doses. It seems to back the policy in the UK as the one that has maximized efficacy.

 

Where I live in south Somerset BioNtech was most people got for first and second dose. I had a booster last week and it was Moderna made in Spain according to the bottle label. I'm glad it wasn't another dose of BioNtech which made me a bit sick after the second dose.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-vaccine-effectiveness-data-delayed-doses-mixing-matching-covid-19-vaccines-1.6205993?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

Edited November 25, 2021 by maico

[AY Mod]

2 hours ago, hayfield said:

Certainly in Germany its worst in the southern area

 

That's incorrect - https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105363/coronavirus-covid-19-infection-rate-by-federal-state-per-100000-people-germany/

 

I'm afraid you make too many erroneous statements in this topic.