Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[alastairq]

I get the impression, herd-immunity is  being 'seen' as the be-all-&end -all?

 

Yet, as pointed out on the latest Zoe briefing, the various time periods of immunity [double vaccine, single vaccine, infection, etc ] seems to be quite variable.  

 

Certainly, in the bigger scheme of things, the period of immunity seems to be quite short, perhaps?

Also varies between individuals.

 

Maybe 'herd immunity' is a short -lived goal?

 

 

 

[Fenman]

1 hour ago, Hobby said:

 

Which doesn't guarantee impartiality... As the Guardian proves.

 

All of them have an agenda of their own.

 

Oh, I completely agree. It's why I gave a balancing example from the liberal (as it then was) Observer. And it's always useful to look at independent research into bias by groups like the Glasgow University media unit (assuming we all now again agree that "experts" have something useful to contribute).

 

Paul

 

 

 

 

[Zero Gravitas]

1 hour ago, Hobby said:

 

Which doesn't guarantee impartiality... As the Guardian proves.

 

All of them have an agenda of their own.

49 minutes ago, Hobby said:

 

 

Exactly, but some people haven't got the message.

 

Including you, apparently :-)

[Hobby]

All I was saying is that we need to look at all viewpoints, I've found useful info in both the DM and Guardian (and others) and quoted them where relevant, I won't dismiss one paper just because I don't like it's political stance like that person does. So perhaps I have got the message as per the thread title?!!

Edited July 31, 2021 by Hobby

[hayfield]

9 minutes ago, Zero Gravitas said:

 

Including you, apparently :-)

 

I think the expression "herd immunity" perhaps is getting a bit of unnecessary bad publicity. The simple fact is covid is here to stay, at some point society will deal with it in the same way we treat influenza. Sadly for some covid like influenza will be deadly as are many other conditions, however once the greater mass have some form of antibodies future infections for most will just be like influenza a nasty short term illness

 

What we have learnt is that we all must take better care with our own health, also we must do something about overcrowded living conditions. 

[Hobby]

Yes, that's the way I see it as well, John. The problem is that some people seem to think we can eradicate it when I don't feel that will be possible, if their views win we'll never get back to any sort of normal. There's also the way it mutates, it could get worse or it could mutate into something less virulent. Time will tell.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Hobby

[fulton]

Used my covid passport for the first time yesterday, here in Dusseldorf, to sit inside a restaurant, my wife has the EU covid app as she was vaccinated in Germany, you show the app then scan a QR code at your table or at the entrance, this gives your location, my paper NHS covid form was accepted but I had to fill out a paper locator/ contact form.

[Dunsignalling]

2 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

For crying out loud guys: a well-educated ten year old knows that Each U.K. newspaper has its own perspective/bias; why beat one another over the head with that particular very old news.

 

The previous two ‘coming out of lockdown’ threads got locked down because of what Andy calls ‘tribalism’.

My apologies for the lapse in neutrality; I was in a particularly acerbic mood the other morning.....

 

John

[Nearholmer]

2 hours ago, alastairq said:

Maybe 'herd immunity' is a short -lived goal?

You touch on something that keeps teasing at my mind: there’s a general feeling in the air that some time soon, maybe in September or early October, Covid-19 will be a done thing in the U.K., but I can’t quite see how that will be the case.

 

There is the question of whether we will ever get quite enough people with sustained immunity to prevent a continuing “smouldering”, with the possibility of “flare ups”, linked to that the question of how long immunity actually lasts (some suggestions from studies of medical staff that it might not be a bad thing to be periodically exposed to the bug in a low-grade way to keep the immune system on its toes), which then leads onto the question of booster jabs, and, perhaps most unpalatable, is the question of the possibility of further and more aggressive variants.

 

Hopefully, we won’t need any more lockdowns, but I can imagine us needing measures short of hard lockdowns, especially during winter-times. If I were HMG, I’d certainly be letting a contract for the production of a few zillion FFP3 face-masks, for issue to the old and otherwise vulnerable, to help reduce both Covid and ‘flu cases in the dark months - IMO, we need to get past our National aversion to masks, and start seeing them as a boring precaution, needed by perhaps a third of the population when in certain types of busy place.

[AY Mod]

2 hours ago, alastairq said:

Maybe 'herd immunity' is a short -lived goal?

 

I don't think we are looking at true 'herd immunity', more a case of of localised (within geography and unprotected groups) near-saturation which may be the cause of the peaking (or drops with reduced testing). It's safer for 'us' to think of saturation levels than immunity levels.

[alastairq]

I think we need to get away from the concept of 'mass gatherings?'

By that, i mean, the centralisation of societal aspects,  and move towards more localisation?

 

We have become used to having places where large numbers of people congregate.

Supermarkets, for example? 

Or even, large housing estates?  Where large numbers of people literally live ''on top of each other,'' or so it seems?

 

[I use more 'local' shops where I can now....in order to avoid contact with large groups of people.]

 

I prefer a decentralised society too.

 

Not from a governmental point of view, but from the viewpoint that, for me, small is better.  Less generalised.

 

Smaller herds, but maybe  more of them,  rather than larger herds.

Edited July 31, 2021 by alastairq

[Nearholmer]

The main things that have progressively centralised us since the late-C18th have been factory-type industries, big offices, and the cost-efficiencies and ‘cheap choice’ of things like big supermarkets and ‘warehouse shops’.
 

All of those have either waned (or are waning), or are under scrutiny from an environmental impact perspective, let alone public health, and or general pleasantness-vs-horribleness perspectives. So, it does feel to me as if this might be a ‘tipping point’, although I’m not sure what we will tip to.
 

Possibly a sort of ‘infinite outer suburbia’ in terms of population density (I live in Milton Keynes, so I’m bound to think like that, because that what we are at, and it works very well!), but there are so many questions about overheating of the economy in the south along with a lack of investment in the north and coastal margins, questions about the sustainability of even local travel etc that it is really hard to tell what might happen.

[alastairq]

In the past, I think the idea of decentralisation has been hampered by a lack of connectivity, perhaps?

Does anyone recall, decades ago, a government effort to get companies to move out of the London area [thus easing the strain on transport and other resources?]

Some companies  did indeed heed the call, but most simply said 'no' and stayed put.

 

Nowadays, with internet access on a reliable scale pretty much available to all, the idea of centralised retail, or  even, work , ought to come under even greater scrutiny.

 

All old hat really...but I get the feeling mreo folk are looking towards the 'think small' approach.

[Andy Hayter]

2 hours ago, Hobby said:

Yes, that's the way I see it as well, John. The problem is that some people seem to think we can eradicate it when I don't feel that will be possible, if their views win we'll never get back to any sort of normal. There's also the way it mutates, it could get worse or it could mutate into something less virulent. Time will tell.

 

I fear you have missed the what lay behind the link I posted yesterday where an Austrian research team have estimated that with 60% total population immunity through vaccination or infection, the likelihood of a variant that evades the vaccine increases.

 

AS I posted yesterday this seems counter intuitive until you consider competitive advantage.

Until now successful variants have been more and more virulent.  The Alpha or Kent variant was more virulent than the original virus and took over only to be overtaken by the even more virulent Indian or Delta version.  Other variants which were less virulent (and there have been many) simply get squeezed out of mass infection by the more virulent versions and essentially die out.  Increased virulence provides competitive advantage.

 

Now with a high level of inbuilt immunity (herd immunity if you will) that competitive advantage weakens.  A less virulent mutation could take over if it can have a competitive advantage over the more virulent ones.

 

The most likely competitive advantage that the researchers can envisage is the new mutant being immune to current vaccines.  This then coupled relaxed regulations on social distancing, mask wearing and mass gatherings provides an ideal environment for a new (less virulent probably)  variant to gain traction.

 

So your "less virulent" mutation is very likely to come with a sting in the tail - an ability to circumvent our vaccination programs.  

 

 

[Hobby]

If the dominant strain turns out less virulent then by definition it's effects are not as serious (ideally down to the level of a bad cold or mild flu, for instance). Trouble is it could go either way and there's no way of knowing which way. So far the strains haven't been a great deal worse than the original (touch wood), just more transmissible. As I said we'll have to wait and see.

[Hobby]

Hedging their bets...

 

"The emergence of a new COVID variant with a similar death rate to MERS, which kills one in three infected people, is a "realistic possibility", the government's scientific advisers have warned.

 

However the experts also say the virus could result in "much less severe disease" in older people and those who are clinically vulnerable in the long term."

 

From:

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/new-deadlier-covid-variant-that-could-kill-one-in-three-a-realistic-possibility-sage-warns/ar-AAMMtIs?ocid=mailsignout&li=BBoPWjQ

[Neil]

An interesting and balanced piece in today's Observer by Andrew Rawnsley discussing the issue of Covid passports. I am broadly supportive of them but out of interest and with no judgement attached what are your views on vaccine passports?

[hayfield]

 

It would have been a good article until he put a political twist on it ?

 

I accept that some may not want to be vaccinated, and the courts have backed them in their employment rights

 

However I (having been double jabbed) have exactly the same rights over my employer, which is to be kept safe in my work place from catching covid 

 

Now who's right takes precedence ? Perhaps two working environments is the answer. But then it brings in discrimination.  

 

Its a lawyers dream which will earn them bucket loads of dosh

[Hobby]

I have no issues with it but think the difficulty these days is producing a passport that can't be fiddled in some way. The misuse of the sunflower lanyard, although not on the same level as a passport shows that there are plenty of people around who are quite willing to break the rules and infect others due to their selfishness...

 

That story about Mary Mallon was interesting, I hadn't heard it before, though it does show the difficulties the Government will have and the lengths people will go to get round the regulations. Nothing changes, eh!

[Andy Hayter]

11 minutes ago, Neil said:

An interesting and balanced piece in today's Observer by Andrew Rawnsley discussing the issue of Covid passports. I am broadly supportive of them but out of interest and with no judgement attached what are your views on vaccine passports?

 

AS someone who is about to have the use of vaccine passports imposed in the next days for use in a restaurant or bar (probably something we do once a month on average), museums (none round here), long distance travel (not likely to happen until access to the UK becomes much easier), I really have no problem with vaccine certificates provided that testing is accepted as an alternative which covers those who won't get a vaccine as well as those who cannot get vaccinated.  I would hope those in the first group would have to pay for their tests since it is a lifestyle choice, while those in the second group should get free tests.

[Hobby]

2 minutes ago, hayfield said:

It would have been a good article until he put a political twist on it ?

 

It was by their political editor!

 

He could have given a lot more to the issues Labour and the Left are having with it, though, a very short paragraph at the end of the article and after several long ones on the Gov and the Right. He makes an excellent point that the Trade Union's official stance is probably against many of it's member's view but fails to develop on it. Shame, missed opportunity.

[Neil]

3 minutes ago, Hobby said:

 

It was by their political editor!

 

He could have given a lot more to the issues Labour and the Left are having with it, though, a very short paragraph at the end of the article and after several long ones on the Gov and the Right. He makes an excellent point that the Trade Union's official stance is probably against many of it's member's view but fails to develop on it. Shame, missed opportunity.

 

My thought is that the greater coverage about the government and the lesser amount for the opposition will be because the former are directing policy whereas the latter are in the position of critiquing it. I too would be interested in a wider exploration of the trade union movement view; do they actually speak with one voice, are there differences of opinion within each union and would the stance change with suitable safeguards in place?

[Jonboy]

I have taken the choice to be double jabbed, as soon as it was offered to my age group. I do however have concerns about the amount of social pressure being placed on people to accept medication that is still new, despite assurances to testing procedures (I am not anti-vax, but simply cynical in day to day life!).

 

I am sceptical as to how effective the checking will be at any such venues. I have been away for work on 7 nights this month, eating out each evening and eaten out twice with family. Each meal was at a different location. 
I would only say that one had a rigorous check in procedure and three didn’t attempt anything beyond the nhs code printed on the door.

 

This suggests to me that any such scheme may well lead to a false sense of security.

[Hobby]

3 minutes ago, Neil said:

do they actually speak with one voice, are there differences of opinion within each union and would the stance change with suitable safeguards in place?

 

Lord knows, I can't even get a straight answer out of my union on on board duties (RMT)!

 

I'd have expected there to be more on the Government than the rest, my comment was just saying it's a pity there wasn't more about Labour and the Unions, both of whom will have some say in what happens if the Gov are as divided as the article makes out.

[Hobby]

4 minutes ago, Jonboy said:

I am sceptical as to how effective the checking will be at any such venues. I have been away for work on 7 nights this month, eating out each evening and eaten out twice with family. Each meal was at a different location. 
I would only say that one had a rigorous check in procedure and three didn’t attempt anything beyond the nhs code printed on the door.

 

I would expect this to be for events and locations which have lots of people crammed into a small location (the nightclubs, for instance) rather than restaurants where more spacing out is seen... Some pubs on weekend nights may qualify, though! I don't think they are looking at the level France seem to have done, at least not yet...