Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Nearholmer]

9 minutes ago, Hobby said:

we visited York a couple of weeks back

Pre school hols?

[Nearholmer]

30 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

We have an events venue nearby with notoriously bad mobile coverage.

You download the QR code, it can then sit in your phone, scannable until it expires (28 days?), so I’m pretty sure it doesn’t need coverage at the venue.

 

One thing this does make me wonder about is how easily ‘portable’ the pass is? Once screen-shotted, it’s dead easy to pass on to anybody. The only personal identifier on it is a name, so to make it secure, a venue would need to ask for photo identification too. It all sounds a bit fiddle-prone/unworkable to me - am I missing something?

Edited July 29, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Reorte]

14 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

You download the QR code, it can then sit in your phone, scannable until it expires (28 days?), so I’m pretty sure it doesn’t need coverage at the venue.

 

One thing this does make me wonder about is how easily ‘portable’ the pass is? Once screen-shotted, it’s dead easy to pass on to anybody. The only personal identifier on it is a name, so to make it secure, a venue would need to ask for photo identification too. It all sounds a bit fiddle-prone/unworkable to me - am I missing something?

You can pass on a QR code easily enough too, it's just a black and white image.

 

Always good to not be dependent on technology to do something simple.

[3rd Rail Exile]

20 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

You download the QR code, then it sits in your phone until it expires (28 days?), so I’m pretty sure it doesn’t need coverage at the venue.

True, as long as you go for the "download PDF copy" option that appears below the QR code (and then can find & open the download on your phone).  

 

I know people who have only proceeded as far as getting the QR code visible, and then found it had disappeared when they went to show it when trying to enter a venue.  The NHS App kicks you out after 15 minutes so the QR code disappears and you have to log in again, which is where coverage at a venue becomes important.  

 

The "download PDF copy" option might be better placed above the QR code - I suspect the option might be off the bottom of some screens without scrolling down...  

 

However, I've not had anyone check that the downloaded PDF copy of the QR code actually relates to me, nor has anyone scanned the QR code - just checked that I have one.  EDIT - which is pretty much the point that @Nearholmer made in his edit, which I only saw once I'd submitted my comment...

Edited July 29, 2021 by 3rd Rail Exile

[Nearholmer]

13 minutes ago, Reorte said:

You can pass on a QR code easily enough too, it's just a black and white image.

By ‘the pass’ I actually meant the QR code, but what all this highlights is that both the QR code and the paper version are insecure.

 

Presumably the bods at the centre of this, working for HMG, fathomed that out for themselves and decided that a somewhat leaky system is better than no system at all.

[Jonboy]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Aside from which ……. Tourist hotspots: we’ve been camping in the Cotswolds over the past few days, and went to Bourton on the Water, which I’m given to believe is usually heaving at the weekends. Well it’s heaving in the week too! Despite most people making at least some effort, it was so busy that it was pretty well impossible to maintain distance on the streets. It’s not the sort of experience I would count as ‘pleasure’ normally, let alone now. So, I’d advise steering well clear of the most popular places.

BBC Oxford had a piece from the Bourton Model Village today. They said they would have usually expected around 15,000 visitors year to date and have had 18,000…..with a much higher proportion of domestic tourists and no coach tours running…

[Ian Hargrave]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Pre school hols?

 
Passing through York on a number of occasions by rail ,the city has an evergreen popularity judging by the numbers of passengers generated throughout the last few months.Unquestionably a hub of tourism .

[adb968008]

So here we go...

 

Ive downloaded from the government website all data points for:

A.Healthcare (daily admissions, daily in hospital numbers)

B.Number of tests

C.Number of positive cases

 

Ive only used data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ and have not amended the data beyond sorting and calculating ratios.

 

1. ive put this into a consolidated spreadsheet.

2. Calculate the 7 day total for each metric (based on Sunday-Saturday) to give me a "Sunday" view and a 1 week upto Sunday view.

3. Made each metric a Ratio to a % based on the Positive tested cases for the same day.

This has given me a full data set from April 2020 through July 25th.

 

As the data is normalized to percentages relating to volumes of testing...

The resulting chart is below, and is really quite different to the wave charts we see on the TV...

 

 

Let me explain the lines:

Yellow.. Number of patients in hospital as a % of 7 day positive cases for that week.

You can see at the start lots of people were in hosptial for an extended time from March through August (4 months)  but as a % of positive cases there was only a smaller peak in November and February - March (2 months).. people are in hospital for shorter amounts of time since March 2021... this must be the vaccine effect... people go but not for long.

 

Blue / Brown..  % of positive cases per test.. Blue is the figure as per "sunday" Brown lags Blue (as it is a 7 day indicator rolled into the following sunday) but as a check sum they very closely match as expected... more on this below.

 

Grey.. Hospital admissions % as a 7 day Number of positive cases... since August this has been static.

 

Here is a simpler view of the same chart... 7 day Positive case/Testing ratio to hospital admissions...

 

Summary: Despite the actual numbers published, this 3rd wave we are currently in, is much smaller than the previous two waves..when it comes to the proportion of people testing positive as a result of a test. 

 

compared to the more familiar this...

 

What does it mean... it means we are testing more and finding more actual cases. However last year we tested less, so we found less cases. However the % of positive cases found suggests this wave is smaller than the first, and the 2nd wave.

 

But additionally those ending up in hospital has been relatively static since last August... What does this mean, well I'm going to guess the age / health profile of those catching covid and needing hospital hasnt changed, since last august, but those catching covid has..in short the general healthy population has become more exposed and just got on with it.

 

Finally, totally unscientific but, if I sum the % of positive daily tests back to March 2020, the figure it gives me is 20.43% exposed to Covid.

 

Another is March 31st 2020 was the worst day for infection with 0.377% of results being positive... 17th April 2021 was the best day.. at 0.0009%. (just 1636 positive of 1677085 tests).

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by adb968008

[Reorte]

4 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

By ‘the pass’ I actually meant the QR code, but what all this highlights is that both the QR code and the paper version are insecure.

 

Presumably the bods at the centre of this, working for HMG, fathomed that out for themselves and decided that a somewhat leaky system is better than no system at all.

Nothing's ever 100% secure, but the more secure you make it the fewer people will bother trying to find a way around it (and the fewer who try will succeed). To achieve its overall goal doesn't require 100% effectiveness, and after a certain point adding more becomes a game of diminishing returns.

[Reorte]

24 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

What does it mean... it means we are testing more and finding more actual cases. However last year we tested less, so we found less cases. However the % of positive cases found shows this wave is smaller than the first, and the 2nd wave.

 

How tests are being carried out can have quite the impact. In the early days few tests were available and only those who had a high chance of being positive in the first place were tested. As testing became more generalised and routine the percentage that are positive can drop even as cases rise; in effect the positivity ratio isn't comparing like with like throughout the pandemic due to the testing regime changing.

[adb968008]

23 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

How tests are being carried out can have quite the impact. In the early days few tests were available and only those who had a high chance of being positive in the first place were tested. As testing became more generalised and routine the percentage that are positive can drop even as cases rise; in effect the positivity ratio isn't comparing like with like throughout the pandemic due to the testing regime changing.

I agree, which is why I put hospital admissions into the chart... you cannot deny who came through the door.

As you see (in Grey)... that became a near constant since last September.. what changed wasnt "who" came through the door, but how long they stayed (Yellow).

Testing revealed more catching it, but not neccessarily translating into disproportionate admissions.. just a constant pro-rata...of circa 0.002% of positive cases were admitted since last August... Whilst the same % keeps coming, they dont stay for months any more.

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by adb968008

[fulton]

Just an observation, will anyone really check your covid pass? I travelled to Germany two weeks ago via Eurotunnel, after getting all my paperwork in order, and the worry that the covid test results may not come on time, the French border control hardly glanced at it, but for the first time did stamp my passport as a non EU citizen. Travel back to UK next week so have been caught by the new Amber plus regs. which is a bit over the top considering I am only driving a short distance through France and maybe not speak to a single person, apart from border control. Let's get everyone vaccinated, so then no need for a covid passport, but of course some will always resist, allowing always for those who cannot have it.

[hayfield]

I am not trying to disprove your figures as I guess they are a all comparable with each other so do show a direct correlation with each other

 

But over the past few days the hospital data has been bought into question

 

A recent FOA request found only 40% of those being treated for covid in hospital, tested positive for covid prior to admission 

 

The figures for people in hospital with covid include those being treated for something totally different but has given a positive test 

 

The main worry is seemingly the cross contamination that is occurring, secondly and less important are those who are in hospital for other treatments/complaints. I understand nothing is ever simple and cut and dry, but it does show how complicated compiling data is

[Hobby]

11 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

Pre school hols?

 

Yes, early July, but we've been there before at that time and it's been wedged, loads of foreign tourists but for some reason plenty of kids as well! It was a pleasant day out this time...

[Nearholmer]

12 minutes ago, hayfield said:

understand nothing is ever simple and cut and dry, but it does show how complicated compiling data is

I was about to mention the same thing, and conclude in much the same way. 
 

It has probably been true throughout that a proportion of those in hospital who test positive for Covid got there for reasons other than Covid, and that could become a rabbit hole down which any analysis disappears, a bit like the “died from Covid” unicorn hunt.

 

IMO, It is very difficult indeed to draw meaningful conclusions over the long run (since March last year), because so many factors have changed, and continue to change. It is even difficult to draw short-term conclusions from test positivity ratio, because the testing regime is almost certainly changing ‘under your feet’, as school students cease to test routinely, which changes the composition of the test community significantly.

 

I'm beginning to think that we just have to sit back and wait to understand what the dickens is really happening this time round, that the routinely published data are not hugely helpful this time, and may even be conveying false impressions.

 

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by Nearholmer

[hayfield]

I went to a local pub with some friends last night for a meal, ordered from the bar (mask wearing was required, most were drinking outside, but inside other than being able to go to the bar nothing else has changed. All customers happy to mask wear when moving around inside. In city pubs and less affluent areas it may well be totally different. As they say you can take a horse to water but you cannot make it drink

 

Like most things with healthcare its down to the individual to set their own parameters, though the environment you are in will/may influence your decisions 

[Nearholmer]

4 minutes ago, hayfield said:

the environment you are in will/may influence your decisions 

IMO very much so.

 

Herd immunity may forever elude us, but herd following behaviour is a really strong trait of us humans.

 

If the herd leaders adopt masks in a particular place, for instance, pretty soon nearly everyone else does. And vice-versa. We really hate being out of step with the herd; whether it is galloping to good grazing, or over a cliff, we can’t resist galloping with it.

[Oldddudders]

8 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Another is March 31st 2020 was the worst day for infection with 0.377% of results being positive... 17th April 2021 was the best day.. at 0.0009%. (just 1636 positive of 1677085 tests).

I must be worse at maths than even I thought - which is saying something. In recent days the total tests have been circa 1 million, and positives have been between 20k and 30k. I make that about 2-3%. What am I getting wrong? 

[Nearholmer]

That’s what adb’s graph says, isn’t it?

[Dunsignalling]

20 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

IMO very much so.

 

Herd immunity may forever elude us, but herd following behaviour is a really strong trait of us humans.

 

If the herd leaders adopt masks in a particular place, for instance, pretty soon nearly everyone else does. And vice-versa. We really hate being out of step with the herd; whether it is galloping to good grazing, or over a cliff, we can’t resist galloping with it.

I've always felt very uncomfortable "following the herd", and avoid doing so wherever possible.

 

Grounds:

 

1. Vanity - I've always considered my judgment to be better than average and by extension, if my thinking doesn't tally with what the herd is doing, it's not me that's getting it wrong!

 

2. Cynicism - The herd is usually being manipulated by politicians and their paymasters to behave in ways that benefit the manipulators. To check, I pick up a discarded copy of the Daily Mail (I stopped buying newspapers regularly more than a decade ago and would never buy that one) to verify that I'm still doing the opposite of what its vile proprietors encourage. 

 

3. Timing - Even when doing the "right thing" the herd carries on doing it after it has demonstrably ceased to be beneficial. 

 

John (tongue only resting very lightly in cheek)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Nearholmer]

You’re probably one of the ‘outlier’ zebras, which serve the herd by exploring slightly beyond the main boundary.

 

These are the zebras that are either first to find a new watering hole, or first to get eaten by lions.

[Oldddudders]

9 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

That’s what adb’s graph says, isn’t it?

I do much better with words than graphs or diagrams. Do adb's words match the graph? 

[Dunsignalling]

1 minute ago, Nearholmer said:

You’re probably one of the ‘outlier’ zebras, which serve the herd by exploring slightly beyond the main boundary.

 

These are the zebras that are either first to find a new watering hole, or first to get eaten by lions.

I've lasted 69 years without being eaten, so far.

[Nearholmer]

1 minute ago, Oldddudders said:

I do much better with words than graphs or diagrams. Do adb's words match the graph? 

I’m not sure the last para does, because I think it might have decimal points in the wrong place, and/or have % signs against ‘per unit’ figures. 
 

Adb?

[Oldddudders]

3 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

I’m not sure the last para does, because I think it might have decimal points in the wrong place, and/or have % signs against ‘per unit’ figures. 
 

Adb?

adb968008?