Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[monkeysarefun]

3 hours ago, Hobby said:

 

There's been plenty of flu pandemics, 1947 was another, it killed my mother's first husband.

 

 

As regards "going back to 2019 normal" I'm surprised no-one's mentioned pollution (climate change?), if anyone wanted proof of pollution all they needed to do is go outside and look at the skies during the first lockdown... Maybe it will help tilt against the 2019-era over-use of transport made pollution? Though judging by the cries of a large percentage of the population who want to go flying back to their sun/sea/booze holidays, perhaps not...

Sydney is in week 5 or something of a lockdown. That along with lack of almost all flights has made a huge difference to the air here right now. The night sky in particular is lovelier than I've ever seen it and I dabbled in amateur stargazing for a few years so I've  spent many nights outside looking up.

 

The Milky way last night was a bright silver ribbon across the sky and various nebulae and star clusters were easily seen..

[monkeysarefun]

13 minutes ago, Reorte said:

How much sense does it make to put things in place that will only roll around once a century or so on average? Where's the line between sensible precaution and overcaution?

 

In the last 20 years or so alone we've had SARs, MERS, swine flu. Avian flu, ebola.. and covid.. and not forgetting AIDS before that .

Here we also have the batborn Lyssa virus and the Hendra virus. 

Maybe living in closer proximity to Asia gives us a better perspective on the frequency these things actually do pop up. 

 given that knowledge, why would you not come up with a national plan to tackle another outbreak on the front foot right from the start instead of dithering around for a vital couple of weeks?

 

As for the quarantine facilities, a collection of cabins in a remote location that can be opened up when needed is not a huge ask.

For instance we already have similar facilities that were used as refugee detention centres at remote unmanned RAAF bases and at Howard Springs in the Northern Territory.

 

 

 

[Nearholmer]

11 minutes ago, monkeysarefun said:

As for the quarantine facilities, a collection of cabins in a remote location that can be opened up when needed is not a huge ask.

We don’t really have any remote locations by Aus standards, but it’s always struck me that HMG could requisition several Center Parcs (holiday camps in forests, for those who don’t know them) pretty easily, if they became serious about quarantine at any stage.

[Andy Hayter]

Plenty of uninhabited islands around the coast.  A  couple of miles of the Atlantic is probably worth several tens of miles of Aussie outback.  

[alastairq]

The volume of international [air & otherwise] travel makes the likelihood of pandemics ever more frequent.

The public health industry need to be ever more prepared.

For better or worse, it seems to me the UK has made itself a hub of the world...the world's traffic roundabout, for travel, perhaps?

So whilst Australia & NZ [purely for example]...can invoke all sorts of isolatory policies, with but a small impact on the rest of the world [thereby being able to care for its citizens more effectively?]...the UK has positioned itself in such a way, caring for ''its own'' is ever more difficult., without impacting on most of the rest of the world.   Like it, or not!

 

Then there's the population make -up of the UK?

This makes it a lot harder for a UK Govt. to adopt policies of public health similar to the Antipodes....There would be a more vociferous outcry concerning so-called 'human rights' for starters.

Thus the UK is really hoist upon its inclusive petard.

[Nearholmer]

Can certainly be refreshingly breezy.

 

I was thinking that all international flights could arrive at whatever that RAF/USAAF airbase next to thetford forest is called, and people could go straight across the grass and through the fence into center parcs.
 

Longleat has some big open grassy bits where you might just be able get an airliner down, if you were really careful, and didn’t hit any wandering deer or aristocrats. Center Parcs right next door.

 

Woburn is more difficult, but the grass runway there can accommodate a DH Rapide and any number of Tiger Moths.

[Reorte]

57 minutes ago, monkeysarefun said:

 

In the last 20 years or so alone we've had SARs, MERS, swine flu. Avian flu, ebola.. and covid.. and not forgetting AIDS before that .

Here we also have the batborn Lyssa virus and the Hendra virus. 

Maybe living in closer proximity to Asia gives us a better perspective on the frequency these things actually do pop up. 

 given that knowledge, why would you not come up with a national plan to tackle another outbreak on the front foot right from the start instead of dithering around for a vital couple of weeks?

 

As for the quarantine facilities, a collection of cabins in a remote location that can be opened up when needed is not a huge ask.

For instance we already have similar facilities that were used as refugee detention centres at remote unmanned RAAF bases and at Howard Springs in the Northern Territory.

Diseases pop up all the time. None of them are really comparable to Covid.

[2750Papyrus]

3 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

C

 

Woburn is more difficult, but the grass runway there can accommodate a DH Rapide and any number of Tiger Moths.

Cranfield?

[Nearholmer]

How could I forget - I can practically see both from here and I cycle past both quite often!

[Bernard Lamb]

26 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Can certainly be refreshingly breezy.

 

I was thinking that all international flights could arrive at whatever that RAF/USAAF airbase next to thetford forest is called, and people could go straight across the grass and through the fence into center parcs.
 

Longleat has some big open grassy bits where you might just be able get an airliner down, if you were really careful, and didn’t hit any wandering deer or aristocrats. Center Parcs right next door.

 

Woburn is more difficult, but the grass runway there can accommodate a DH Rapide and any number of Tiger Moths.

Only a short coach ride from Cranfield.

Bernard

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Reorte said:

How much sense does it make to put things in place that will only roll around once a century or so on average? Where's the line between sensible precaution and overcaution?

Same excuse UK local authorities trot out for not buying proper snowploughs.

 

What makes you think it'll be that long to the next one?  Past experience from bad flu pandemics suggests we could easily see three more over a 100 year timescale. 

 

It's worth bearing in mind that many scientists consider Covid-19 to be pretty benign compared to a lot of the other viruses that could have made the jump to us. If one of those got going, the only alternative to strict quarantine provision for virtually all arrivals would be a complete and indefinite cessation of international travel.

 

That's assuming anybody infected survived long enough to complete a long-haul flight.....

 

John

 

[Nearholmer]

9 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

That's assuming anybody infected survived long enough to complete a long-haul flight.....

 
If they didn’t, it wouldn’t spread all that fast, it would be a more traditional plague, being passed on in relays by sailors (and/or rats). 

[Nick C]

53 minutes ago, Reorte said:

Diseases pop up all the time. None of them are really comparable to Covid.

Yet. Who knows what the next one will be like...

Edited August 2, 2021 by Nick C

[Andy Hayter]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

 

That's assuming anybody infected survived long enough to complete a long-haul flight.....

 

John

 

 

That would be a virus that would die out very quickly.  In a sense too successful; killing its host within hours.  Easily handled.  Just pull the shutters down.  Everyone inside the area dies quickly or survives.  The virus runs out of hosts, it too dies and after a short period the shutters can be raised again..

 

It could be considered that Ebola is or is very close to this state: by virtue of its speed of infection and speed in disposing of its victims plus that its outbreaks start in remote areas that are easy to isolate, its ability to spread is reduced as a result of its success.  

[298]

2 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

Woburn is more difficult, but the grass runway there can accommodate a DH Rapide and any number of Tiger Moths.

 

For about an hour on a Sunday afternoon in August, Woburn used to be the busiest airfield in the world with airfraft leaving the DH Moth club rally.

[Nearholmer]

One of my favourite days out, until it ceased. The highlight was always watching a Moth end up in the pond - the pilots always seemed to walk away in need of no more than a stiff G&T.

[Reorte]

3 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

Same excuse UK local authorities trot out for not buying proper snowploughs.

 

What makes you think it'll be that long to the next one?  Past experience from bad flu pandemics suggests we could easily see three more over a 100 year timescale. 

 

It's worth bearing in mind that many scientists consider Covid-19 to be pretty benign compared to a lot of the other viruses that could have made the jump to us. If one of those got going, the only alternative to strict quarantine provision for virtually all arrivals would be a complete and indefinite cessation of international travel.

 

That's assuming anybody infected survived long enough to complete a long-haul flight.....

No, not an excuse. It may not be that long to the next one - all you can say is that it's unpredictable, but still give an average rate.

 

To keep to the snowplough analogy let's say you live somewhere where you get a flurry of snow, might just settle, once every few years, and a really heavy fall once every few decades. Does investing in proper snowploughs make sense? It's possible that the next one might be the next year of course, doesn't change the average rate being what it is. "It could happen" without consideration of the frequency isn't a good way of making plans.

 

I'm certainly not saying "do nothing"; having plans in place makes sense (although there's the old saying "no plan survives contact with the enemy"), but is heavy snowfall is infrequent the more sensible approach is to have a plan for what you'll do with what you've got rather than spending a lot on ploughs. If it's somewhere with no record of snow ever having fallen then even that's a bit OTT (although there's no disease case that that situation's an analogy for).

Edited August 2, 2021 by Reorte

[alastairq]

5 minutes ago, Reorte said:

No, not an excuse. It may not be that long to the next one - all you can say is that it's unpredictable, but still give an average rate.

 

To keep to the snowplough analogy let's say you live somewhere where you get a flurry of snow, might just settle, once every few years, and a really heavy fall once every few decades. Does investing in proper snowploughs make sense? It's possible that the next one might be the next year of course, doesn't change the average rate being what it is. "It could happen" without consideration of the frequency isn't a good way of making plans.

 On the other hand, the effect on the local economy of just doing the bare essentials regarding snow clearance also needs taking into account.

If the number of days where transport locally comes to a halt [or, nearly so] is minimal, then why bother spending council tax payers' money?

Why not simply hire in the equipment? If it really needs to be hired in?

In my county the gritter fleet is used all year round for other purposes, and can be equipped with stick-on snow blades when necessary.

At one time, local farmers would have a blade sat in the grass all year round, ready to plonk on a tractor front for clearing snow locally/ More so in rural areas, of course.

Nowadays, i haven't tripped over an overgrown plough in the grass verge for yonks...  

Even the local bus companies pull their vehicles off the road at the first signs of snow.  One time we would be out getting folk home, or to work....but then someone added up the cost of how many cars slid into buses, causing damage which meant buses off the road for days, being mended....was it 'worth' it?

Not to shareholders it wasn't!

 

A balancing act really, between one set of economics, and another.

[Nearholmer]

Yep, contingency planning and preparation is always a considered gamble, and I'm personally much more interested in whether public authorities are doing their best at it, than whether their calculated gambles occassionally turn-out to be the wrong ones (which they will sometimes, inevitably). From what I can work out, the Nightingale Hospitals were almost certainly a pre-planned move for a 'flu pandemic, which turned-out not quite right for a covid pandemic, but I'd be loath to clobber anybody for planning or executing them.

 

Back to what the stats tell us: locally, they tell me that while this wave looks nothing like the winter passed, it is by no means pain free. The number of people in our local hospital with covid has been climbing slowly, but steadily, and, after weeks with no deaths associated with covid, a small number have begun to occur again.

 

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by Nearholmer

[monkeysarefun]

9 hours ago, Reorte said:

Diseases pop up all the time. None of them are really comparable to Covid.

MERS, SARS and  SARS2 (covid) are all closely related.

 

The 2003 SARS outbreak had a mortaliity rate of 10%, MERS had a 34% mortality rate.

 

What saved us then was those versions had different infectiousness characteristics, ie were less infectious and did not spread via  asymptomatic cases amongst other things..

Our fortunate ability to clamp down on them fast prevented a possible delta-style  contagious version from mutating,  otherwise  we would have all been up Schitts creek.

 

Its instantly obvious here whenever  a new virus is looming in some part of the globe because all the citizens of Asian extraction whack on face masks when going anywhere.

They know what its all about unlike many of us Euros who assume  it'll never happen where we live, or think our right to not wear a mask is actually a thing we should fight for..

[Neil]

Looks like the travel industry has won out over caution; also worrying that the head of the Joint Biosecurity Centre (the body which advised on the amber watchlist) had resigned and not been replaced.

[ikcdab]

10 minutes ago, Neil said:

Looks like the travel industry has won out over caution; also worrying that the head of the Joint Biosecurity Centre (the body which advised on the amber watchlist) had resigned and not been replaced.

To be honest, you can be too cautious. Was it only three weeks ago that all the doom mongers were saying that there would be a massive increase in infections after July 19th? At the moment it looks as if that isn't going to happen. In my local Asda yesterday, only half the people were wearing masks, and that includes the staff. So people aren't being particularly cautious either. I do sometime think that the scientific experts are very risk adverse. Thank heavens that we have others who weigh up all the factors to make the decisions.

[Hobby]

8 minutes ago, ikcdab said:

I do sometime think that the scientific experts are very risk adverse. 

 

They are, but that's their job. There was a programme very early on in the pandemic where they had a discussion which was made up of scientific experts and several of them were honest enough to admit that they wouldn't want to job of the politicians who had to make the final decision. At the end of the day, like everything else in life, it's a question of how much risk is taken, nothing comes without some risk... So if this case where the experts can't even agree between themselves what the outcome will be it's left to someone else to make the decision, bearing in mind it's not just Covid that kills and ruins people's lives.

Edited August 3, 2021 by Hobby

[hayfield]

16 minutes ago, Neil said:

Looks like the travel industry has won out over caution; also worrying that the head of the Joint Biosecurity Centre (the body which advised on the amber watchlist) had resigned and not been replaced.

 

Went back in June and I guess with modern HR requirements the post has to be offered to all and sundry under employment rules. Gone are the days when you could pick the person you wanted to do the job

 

3 minutes ago, ikcdab said:

To be honest, you can be too cautious. Was it only three weeks ago that all the doom mongers were saying that there would be a massive increase in infections after July 19th? At the moment it looks as if that isn't going to happen. In my local Asda yesterday, only half the people were wearing masks, and that includes the staff. So people aren't being particularly cautious either. I do sometime think that the scientific experts are very risk adverse. Thank heavens that we have others who weigh up all the factors to make the decisions.

 

As you say two or 3 weeks ago we were worrying about the next spike and what the previous lifting restrictions were doing, let alone the new so called freedom we have. Things are slowing down and for the past week our local 7 day infection average has shown a 50% decrease on the previous week. vaccinations and past infections seem to be curbing most of the worst effects except long covid, its moving into the next phase where it will morph with the annual influenza program as an annual protection program

[Nearholmer]

12 minutes ago, Hobby said:

where the experts can't even agree between themselves what the outcome will be

They aren’t there to “agree among themselves”, and would fail us all miserably if they did, because it would imply a worrying degree of “group-think”.

 

Taking modelling of possible outcomes of actions as an instance, it is good/vital to have separate groups, arriving at their assessments independently, because that way a large degree of overlap between models tends to indicate the most likely “landing zone”.

 

I could say more about the “scientists can’t agree among themselves” nonsense that gets wheeled out all the time, but would probably cause offence if I did.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by Nearholmer