Supermarkets - empty shelves therein

[Nearholmer]

I was quite taken aback this morning when I popped into the supermarket (c0900) to buy a couple of things. The place is usually fully stocked at that time, have been topped-up in the evening and from 0700 in the morning.

 

Beef, lamb, and chicken shelves exceedingly depleted; butchery counter "temporarily closed" (I asked: "no meat"); very depleted selection of fish.

 

Holes have been appearing for weeks now, but mostly simply reducing choices, or "disappearing" exotica that one can manage without, but this was of a different order. I had a wander round looking for other "holes", and there were quite a few spread across different parts of the shop.

 

The explanation was probably this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58641394

 

Have others noticed significant, as opposed to insignificant shortages?

 

TBH, I'm still struggling to get my head round all this .......... I could understand it during Lockdown 1, when it was blindingly obvious that hoarding was a serious issue, and I get HGV driver shortages, and lots of people self-isolating (although that isnt an issue now, is it?). I suppose every part of the process, from farm to shop, is affected a bit, and the sum of all those bits is empty spaces on the shelves.

 

[Mol_PMB]

Humans across the planet are producing far too much CO2, hence global warming. But the UK government is now about to subsidise certain industries to use more fossil fuels and increase their CO2 production because there isn't enough of it! I'm sure I'm over-simplifying this but it really doesn't make much sense...

 

[Dava]

BBC News are not reporting impartially, they don’t want to mention the role of Brexit in excessive energy price rises, HGV driver, food supply chain & food price rises. This is not political, it’s factual. EU states are coping fine. 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Mol_PMB said:

Humans across the planet are producing far too much CO2, hence global warming. But the UK government is now about to subsidise certain industries to use more fossil fuels and increase their CO2 production because there isn't enough of it! I'm sure I'm over-simplifying this but it really doesn't make much sense...

 

 

We release vast quantities straight into the atmosphere to no useful effect.

Sometimes we put a tiny bit into bottles as a by product of other processes to do useful things with.

Those other processes are currently expensive to do because natural gas is expensive so they've shut them down for a bit.

 

Turns out that little bit of bottled c02 is _really_ important for all sorts of food production and we've run out....

[chris p bacon]

11 minutes ago, Dava said:

BBC News are not reporting impartially, they don’t want to mention the role of Brexit in excessive energy price rises, HGV driver, food supply chain & food price rises. This is not political, it’s factual. EU states are coping fine. 

 

You really ought to get your facts straight before bringing up the 'B' word.  At present it is a case of Russia using Germanys reliance on their gas to attempt to destabilise the EU by driving up the wholesale price of gas. The EU isn't coping fine either, it is also struggling with a driver shortage. As an example Germany is 40,000 drivers short.

Edited September 21, 2021 by chris p bacon

[Nearholmer]

22 minutes ago, Mol_PMB said:

I'm over-simplifying this but it really doesn't make much sense...

 

Yes, I struggled with that bit too ........ I guess the issue is that burning a lump of wood doesn't make highly compressed CO2, just unconfined CO2, which isn't what is wanted for the jobs at hand.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

 

Yes, I struggled with that bit too ........ I guess the issue is that burning a lump of wood doesn't make highly compressed CO2, just unconfined CO2, which isn't what is wanted for the jobs at hand.

 

Apparently the brewing industry creates useful food-grade c02 but they don't bottle it.

Maybe that will change but probably not right now.

[Nearholmer]

From what I can work out, there is a bit of the B thing in some of this, but I don't think its "the big story", and it certainly isnt "the only story". The Spanish and Italian Governments have had to intervene in different ways in gas pricing, and, as Chris P has said, lorry driver shortages aren't unique to the UK. Where B certainly is/was important is/was in field-labour shortages during vegetable harvesting.

 

The UK does seem to be extra vulnerable on gas because we store hardly any compared with other countries, so suffer price--shocks, and, I guess, supply vulnerability.

 

In fact, isn't the fragility of "just in time", which is one of the things we rely on to get cheap food (yes, our food is cheap compared with many countries), and cheap goods one of the big stories in all these things? It is marvellous when everything is working, super-optimised, but vulnerable to to tiniest glitch anywhere in the chain.

[Stuart A]

25 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

 

You really ought to get your facts straight before bringing up the 'B' word.  At present it is a case of Russia using Germanys reliance on their gas to attempt to destabilise the EU by driving up the wholesale price of gas. The EU isn't coping fine either, it is also struggling with a driver shortage. As an example Germany is 40,000 drivers short.

 

The B word isn't the wholly to blame, but it is part of the driver shortage issue

 

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/supply-chain/the-real-causes-of-the-hgv-driver-shortage-and-why-we-cant-blame-it-all-on-brexit/659841.article

[AY Mod]

26 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

From what I can work out, there is a bit of the B thing in some of this, but I don't think its "the big story", and it certainly isnt "the only story".

 

It's a combination of circumstances and decisions - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/17/empty-shelves-covid-brexit-britain-lorry-drivers

[micklner]

The 'situation" not helped by our "beloved press" going on and on and on about anything that can be exagerrated,,  hyped up etc etc !! Ad Nauseum !!. All in a desperate quest to sell papers and advertising = £££$$$ .

 

Result back to panic buying as per the start of the lock down all due to the Tv and Press in general. If they kept quiet for once 90% or even more ??  of the percieved problems would never exist in the first place.

 

 

[Nearholmer]

Hmmmm ..,… I’m sceptical that panic buying emptied the shelves of meat by 0900 in an apparently only normally patronised shop, or that people are stockpiling celery, or cough pastilles.

 

There is a reality to this, as well as the usual hype.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Nearholmer

[burgundy]

33 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

It's a combination of circumstances and decisions - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/17/empty-shelves-covid-brexit-britain-lorry-drivers

An article by a Polish lorry driver, which makes for pretty uncomfortable reading. 

 Twenty reasons why there is an HGV driver shortage - part one: 1-10 - West Country Bylines

Best wishes 

Eric 

[chris p bacon]

3 minutes ago, burgundy said:

An article by a Polish lorry driver, which makes for pretty uncomfortable reading. 

 Twenty reasons why there is an HGV driver shortage - part one: 1-10 - West Country Bylines

Best wishes 

Eric 

Brexit, immigration and the EDL.....that's a balanced opinion piece  

[EddieB]

13 minutes ago, burgundy said:

An article by a Polish lorry driver, which makes for pretty uncomfortable reading. 

 Twenty reasons why there is an HGV driver shortage - part one: 1-10 - West Country Bylines

Best wishes 

Eric 

Ok, I suppose being Polish he wouldn’t be directly affected by IR35 - but he ought to be aware of its effect on his industry.  Maybe it’s in the second set of ten reasons...

[Andy Hayter]

2 hours ago, Dava said:

BBC News are not reporting impartially, they don’t want to mention the role of Brexit in excessive energy price rises, HGV driver, food supply chain & food price rises. This is not political, it’s factual. EU states are coping fine. 

 

 

AS others have said Brexit is not a major factor in the HGV driver shortage - much as it would bring me glee if it were.  I worked 35 years in logistics across Europe and in part beyond.  

 

Over 10 years ago we got a presentation from a (arguably the) major German haulier about the shortage of HGV drivers and the reasons behind it.  This was and is a European problem.  Brexit may well have exacerbated the situation in the UK.  Covid certainly has but there is a systemic problem across Europe.  

 

From what I have seen of BBC reporting on this issue it has been pretty fairly balanced and honest.

 

And in case anyone is really interested, the biggest issue out of very many - some of which are in the Polish driver's article - is Peace.  Peace in Europe and the fall of the Iron curtain has led to major changes across Europe in conscription/national service.  Either it was abolished or the conditions of state service were extended to include working for charities, in hospitals etc.    Before that most conscripts doing their national service ended up in the army.  Many were given the opportunity to learn how to drive an HGV as part of their service and so you used to have many 21/22 year olds leaving their national service with an HGV licence.  Those whose bent was less academic could then walk straight into a skilled job.   

 

You don't often get that chance working working for a charity, the red cross  etc., important though that service might be.

[micklner]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

Hmmmm ..,… I’m sceptical that panic buying emptied the shelves of meat by 0900 in an apparently only normally patronised shop, or that people are stockpiling celery, or cough pastilles.

 

There is a reality to this, as well as the usual hype.

That what panic buying is . e.g people grab anything to hand , needed or not does'nt come into their brains . Last time Toilet Rolls, even though there were millions sitting in warehouses at the time .

Perfect excuses to screw everybody over on prices as well. e.g , Wood price through the roof ? why ? they couldnt get it out of the forests ! really! ,  wonder what they did before to pull it out !! etc etc.

[pH]

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

… panic buying emptied the shelves of … cough pastilles.

 
The new toilet paper?

 

(Obviously typing at the same time as Micklner.)

Edited September 21, 2021 by pH

[AY Mod]

3 minutes ago, micklner said:

why ?

 

Most of the problem here was that US buyers would pay a higher price so that's where the boatloads went.

[chris p bacon]

1 minute ago, AY Mod said:

 

Most of the problem here was that US buyers would pay a higher price so that's where the boatloads went.

It’s the building boom in the Far East which is driving up prices here. 
as an example a Canadian friend has just paid a third more than us for ply even though it’s made there. 

[Ozexpatriate]

30 minutes ago, micklner said:

Wood price through the roof ? why ? they couldnt get it out of the forests ! really! ,  wonder what they did before to pull it out !! etc etc.

25 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

Most of the problem here was that US buyers would pay a higher price so that's where the boatloads went.

Certainly those who had contracts with builders to construct homes and were faced with sudden price increases. They didn't have much choice when confronted with a sudden increase of ~200% over existing prices (3X total). 

23 minutes ago, chris p bacon said:

It’s the building boom in the Far East which is driving up prices here. 
as an example a Canadian friend has just paid a third more than us for ply even though it’s made there. 

Lumber price in the US has peaked since May.

 

There were many contributing factors as you would expect in a global market. As always, a supply/demand reaction. The pandemic had a major impact in terms of reducing supply of manufactured ply and increased demand of people wanting suburban homes - on top of a pre-existing high demand.

 

Lesser impact globally but a big deal locally is the demand to replace houses burned down in forest fires. And yes, they are still using wood framing and ply, but with better fire-resistant roofing and cladding.

 

Edited September 21, 2021 by Ozexpatriate

[alastairq]

28 minutes ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

 

AS others have said Brexit is not a major factor in the HGV driver shortage - much as it would bring me glee if it were.  I worked 35 years in logistics across Europe and in part beyond.  

 

Over 10 years ago we got a presentation from a (arguably the) major German haulier about the shortage of HGV drivers and the reasons behind it.  This was and is a European problem.  Brexit may well have exacerbated the situation in the UK.  Covid certainly has but there is a systemic problem across Europe.  

 

From what I have seen of BBC reporting on this issue it has been pretty fairly balanced and honest.

 

And in case anyone is really interested, the biggest issue out of very many - some of which are in the Polish driver's article - is Peace.  Peace in Europe and the fall of the Iron curtain has led to major changes across Europe in conscription/national service.  Either it was abolished or the conditions of state service were extended to include working for charities, in hospitals etc.    Before that most conscripts doing their national service ended up in the army.  Many were given the opportunity to learn how to drive an HGV as part of their service and so you used to have many 21/22 year olds leaving their national service with an HGV licence.  Those whose bent was less academic could then walk straight into a skilled job.   

 

You don't often get that chance working working for a charity, the red cross  etc., important though that service might be.

 Driver's hours, Working time Directives, etc  all conspire to make it difficult for a cat C or C+E licence holder to work the hours necessary to fill the shelves.

I sent my Cat C+E back to DVLA when I decided to stop working.....I can still reclaim it without having to re-take a test too...not that I have any issues whatsoever with taking any driving test going..but I wanted to 'remove the temptation'....

I also spent the last 20 years of my working life conducting driver training to the UK military...

 

So, sorry folks, I get my meat from a local farm butcher.....no shortages there, it's all on the hoof in her fields...

[Nearholmer]

34 minutes ago, pH said:

1 hour ago, Nearholmer said:

panic buying emptied the shelves of … cough pastilles.

 
The new toilet paper? 

 

Not something I'd consider using for that, likewise celery, but each to his own.

[Bernard Lamb]

11 minutes ago, alastairq said:

 Driver's hours, Working time Directives, etc  all conspire to make it difficult for a cat C or C+E licence holder to work the hours necessary to fill the shelves.

I sent my Cat C+E back to DVLA when I decided to stop working.....I can still reclaim it without having to re-take a test too...not that I have any issues whatsoever with taking any driving test going..but I wanted to 'remove the temptation'....

I also spent the last 20 years of my working life conducting driver training to the UK military...

 

So, sorry folks, I get my meat from a local farm butcher.....no shortages there, it's all on the hoof in her fields...

I thought that they used CO2 to stun animals before slaughter?

Although I did hear tonight that the government is going to bribe the US owners of the fertilizer factory to resume production.

Bernard

[Ron Ron Ron]

Not shortages on the supermarket shelves, but regards energy prices going through the roof and supply chains being disrupted......

 

Germany, Sept 21 (DW News) -

Europeans brace for hard winter as energy price surge hits households

Energy costs are soaring in Europe, with ordinary citizens and businesses worst-hit. Weather has played a big role, although there are also questions over Russia's gas supply. The onset of winter is adding to worries.

All across Europe, electricity bills for households and businesses have been rising dramatically. They have increased steadily throughout 2021, but in September, the upward surge has been dramatic. This month alone, wholesale power prices in Germany have risen by almost 50%.

Prices are hitting record highs as a combination of factors buffets Europe's energy sector. The main cause is a global gas shortage — the price of natural gas has quadrupled in Europe since the start of the year.

The situation appears to be getting worse, and many governments are now fearful of blackouts and fuel poverty ahead of an inevitable jump in demand throughout the winter.

 

Full article here...

https://www.dw.com/en/europeans-brace-for-hard-winter-as-energy-price-surge-hits-households/a-59246714

 

 

BERLIN, Sept 16 (Reuters) -

The majority of German mechanical engineering companies are facing noticeable or serious supply chain problems, a survey by Germany's VDMA engineering industry association showed....

VDMA said on Thursday 81% of mechanical engineering companies reported impairments in their supply chains, especially electronic components, and two thirds of the companies surveyed suffered from logistics and transport problems.

"That is significantly more than even at the peak of the pandemic in mid-April 2020", VDMA Chief Economist Ralph Wiechers said.

More than half of the companies surveyed expect preliminary production bottlenecks to remain the same and 40% see it increasing

 

 

From other transport industry news...

 

In the UK there is a shortfall of at least 76,000 drivers.

Across Europe the total reaches 400,000 drivers, according to research by Transport Intelligence.

Ti’s latest research paper on European Driver Shortages assesses the scale of the crisis, country by country. 

 

The most heavily affected European countries are Poland, the UK and Germany.

 

Poland:

According to Ti estimates, the shortage in Poland in 2020 was around 124,000 drivers.

According to IRU, Poland is one of the most heavily impacted European countries and driver shortage in 2020 stood at around 37%.

 

UK: 

The shortfall of truck drivers is estimated at 60,000-76,000.

The Road Haulage Association estimates that there is currently a shortfall of about 60,000 hauliers in the UK.

According to data from the Q2 Labour Force Survey for 2020, the calculated shortfall is even higher than RHA estimates and stands at around 76,000.

 

Germany: 

Between 45,000 and 60,000 truck drivers are ‘missing’ in the German market alone, according to the DSLV and BGL, and this number is only increasing.

The IRU predicts a gap of 185,000 drivers by 2027 in Germany.

France: 

In 2019 it was reported by several news outlets that France is experiencing a shortage of approximately 43,000 drivers.

 

Spain: 

According to Ti estimates, the shortfall of truck drivers in Spain was 15,340 in 2020.

Italy: 

The shortfall in Italy in 2019 was estimated at around 15,000 drivers according to various sources including National newspaper Corriere della Sera. 

 

Denmark, Norway & Sweden: 

The Scandinavian countries figures are not as high, but the shortage of drivers has spread across Europe.

 

 

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