Hornby announce TT:120

[J-Lewis]

I see that Sam’s Trains has decided that results of a poll on his channel means that nobody is buying TT?  😂

 

Hornby is definitely behind schedule with their releases, but they appear to have sold an absolute ton of A1’s and A4’s over the past year, the sets have been selling consistently, and ebay sales look pretty strong over the past year too.  Sam seems to have missed the evidence for those restocked sets taking the product slots that would have been booked for the newer locos.  A victim of their own success as it were.
 

However, I’d guess  we are almost certainly at (or close to) saturation point for those initial locos and ready for the new ones, and provided the big April announcement comes with some concrete release dates for phase 3/4 and some new announcements it should be onwards and upwards for the scale.

 

The goal is wide open for Hornby at this point.

[Legend]

From Model Rail Scotland . The HST looks and sounds superb . Also Duchess and Staniers . I believe the HST is in the country am]nc imminent 

[GenericRMWebUsername]

3 hours ago, Legend said:

From Model Rail Scotland . The HST looks and sounds superb . Also Duchess and Staniers . I believe the HST is in the country am]nc imminent 

Other people who attended the show heard the same thing. Hornby's head of brand said the first batch of Class 43s are in England. I'm excited to see pictures! 

[No Decorum]

On 23/02/2024 at 11:59, Steamport Southport said:

 

Didn't everyone complain when Vi Trains did that though?

 

Great for modellers*, but those that wanted them finished out of the box really did kick up a fuss and the retailers struggled to sell them. Pity they aren't still available.

 

 

*Especially for the fact you got lots of extras that you could use on other locos

 

 

Jason

As I recall, the separate bits didn’t fit where they were supposed to. It was a bit beyond me then but I could cope better now.

[No Decorum]

On 23/02/2024 at 13:00, Hobby said:

People are still buying Hornby's Railroad range... Railroad gives you some detail and is numbered/named but not the level of detail of the rest of the range. Granted people are still buying the expensive stuff, but perhaps that's because there isn't a railroad version. There's a market for both ends of the detailing/cost scale, it depends on who you ask whether the amount of detail is enough or too much. On RMWeb I'd expect the former to be more popular, the same for collectors, but there are lots of people out there who don't want of need the e level of detail we see on a lot of current offerings. Horses for courses.

I agree with that; plenty of room in the market for both Railroad and main range. I did wonder why Hornby bought Lima and a lot of obsolete tooling. What Hornby eventually did with the tooling was clever and remains popular. Where I think Hornby went wrong was to tool a Railroad model, then attempt to sell it with a few enhancements as a main range model. The result was neither one nor the other and unsatisfactory. It didn’t help that they were mired in the “design clever” debacle.

[frobisher]

6 hours ago, No Decorum said:

Where I think Hornby went wrong was to tool a Railroad model, then attempt to sell it with a few enhancements as a main range model. The result was neither one nor the other and unsatisfactory. It didn’t help that they were mired in the “design clever” debacle.

 

I think the MK1 and MK2 coaches have done well for Hornby, ditto the Tornado and Crosti 9F.  As it stands, much of the TT range is very much "design clever" and much the better for it.

 

[teletougos]

On 22/02/2024 at 10:00, britishcolumbian said:

But, others have reported good interactions with him (Art+Detail), so I don't know. Your call... but I won't deal directly with him, which is unfortunate since he does have some interesting things from time to time and tends to focus on Canadian subjects.

The UK's longstanding TT shop is much the same ; half will deal with them, half did once & never will again. 

[Roy L S]

On 23/02/2024 at 08:29, Les1952 said:

 

We demand so much detail and so much of it is extremely delicate and falls off at the first heavy shunt on the layout.  There are a lot of parts which, if placed in a bag for those whose models stay in the box unused (a lot) or in a showcase could lower the assembly cost significantly.

 

 

 

Les

It is a fallacy Les, the factory added extra detail isn't adding that much to the overall cost of a model at all, this misconception has been done to death, although it seems to me that some people think that if they repeat it often enough it will become fact - it won't.

 

As has been said repeatedly the biggest factor dictating the cost of any model is the volume produced by the factory and typically even in OO in the grand scheme of things these aren't huge so unit cost will be high, added detail or no added detail.

 

Regards

 

Roy

[natterjack]

1 hour ago, Roy L S said:

As has been said repeatedly the biggest factor dictating the cost of any model is the volume produced by the factory and typically even in OO in the grand scheme of things these aren't huge so unit cost will be high,

Now that I'm actively seeking TT120 bargains I'm seeing  lot of recently released OO locos at heavily discounted prices, some in the order of 50 to 60%. Is this usual for this time of year? I have yet to  see any equivalent TT120 stock clearances.

[greg81]

23 hours ago, Legend said:

From Model Rail Scotland . The HST looks and sounds superb . Also Duchess and Staniers . I believe the HST is in the country am]nc imminent 

Agreed, the HST looked and sounded well, the class 50 also. The 66 could really help them merge this across their European range via Arnold with some minor tooling modifications.

Edited February 25 by greg81

[J-Lewis]

8 minutes ago, greg81 said:

Agreed, the HST looked and sounded well, the class 50 also. The 66 could really help them merge this across their European range via Arnold with some minor tooling modifications.

The class 66 is confirmed as an Arnold release in European liveries and spec (including rubber traction tyres).  The recently released Arnold container wagons are suitable for UK outline too, so cross pollination seems to be factored into Hornbys planning.  :)

[greg81]

I did not see that. Fair play, I hope it works for them. Do you think a class 86, 87 or 92 may pop up sooner or later? The fact they run in Eastern Europe could open even more doors for the range.

[Roy L S]

2 hours ago, natterjack said:

Now that I'm actively seeking TT120 bargains I'm seeing  lot of recently released OO locos at heavily discounted prices, some in the order of 50 to 60%. Is this usual for this time of year? I have yet to  see any equivalent TT120 stock clearances.

Sorry I may be missing something, but I am not seeing the relevance of your point to the matter of added detail and comparative lack of impact it has on on overall cost of producing a model or price to the end user? 

[natterjack]

49 minutes ago, Roy L S said:

Sorry I may be missing something,

Well actually I was asking a question re OO, and you seemed to have some knowledge of the market.

[teletougos]

On 23/02/2024 at 20:06, MartinRS said:

 Most local authorities are within China are also on the verge of bankruptcy having been 'encouraged' to invest heavily in that sector by the CCP.

 

Does the present complex state of the Chinese economy give Hornby a lot more bargaining power? Without getting into a discussion as to whether Hornby are a large UK manufacturer I don't see them as having much, if any leverage with individual Chinese manufacturers without offering to pay more for production slots, whatever the exchange rate. They are in competition for those same production slots with many other Western companies.

 

 

I go to a well-heeled county town in China sometimes. It's in a river valley west of Hangzhou. The county was pushed by the provincial government to invest in precision manufacturing, in addition to a bit of bio-tech.

 

The factories are on the edge of town; I walk around them a lot when I'm there because I prefer to stay in a local village nearby, rather than in the empty Hilton or other vanity-project hotels by the river. They are stupid and depressing, and you cannot buy the noodles I like there.

 

The precision tech factory buildings are a ghost town. They had two good years before the pandemic but never really re-opened. 

 

One is finally being fitted out to produce fake cashmere scarves. The sort of low-end stuff that's all many consumers can now afford. I got drunk with the boys who are putting the machinery in. Mostly it's automated. 

 

Chinese buildings and urban environments mainly look neat, and certainly they're newer and less rubbish-looking than in England, but do not be fooled; China is as sick as the West.

 

The town had a World Trade Centre. It was only open for three years and now creepers are enveloping its upper stories.  Another 30-storey building next to it was finished in the early stage of the pandemic. Never been occupied. It is going to be demolished. That tells me a lot. 

 

Chinese employers are inherently predatory and snaky to deal with. Skilled workers became more choosy in covid time. 

 

And as older, dexterous, skilled women - the ideal cohort for fitting fiddly bits to model trains - leave the market, that employer attitude has come home to roost. 

 

It met its match in the 'Tang Ping' movement - 'lying flat' - a passive aggressive resistance to social pressure to overwork / overachieve which has spread like wildfire among people in their 20s, and its darker sister, 'bai lan' or 'let it rot'. 

 

The prospective workers who could make the Hornbys, and the precision stuff I go to China for, are fine working ten hours a week, eating the good noodles, and reading Bukowski, Diogenes, even Camus. It's really hard to get them to care.

Edited March 5 by teletougos
chinese spelling

[BachelorBoy]

1 hour ago, teletougos said:

The prospective workers who could make the Hornbys, and the precision stuff I go to China for, are fine working ten hours a week, eating the good noodles, and reading Bukowski, Diogenes, even Camus. It's really hard to get them to care.

 

China's youth unemployment (16-24)  in cities hit a record of 21% last year.

 

Then the authorities decided that the method of measuring that joblessness was wrong, and so they stopped publishing the statistics.

 

About six months later they started to publish them again, and amazingly, the proportion dropped to something like 11%.

 

 

[Roy L S]

7 hours ago, natterjack said:

Well actually I was asking a question re OO, and you seemed to have some knowledge of the market.

OO has the biggest following in the UK by some margin with British N coming second at around 20-25% of the size. The heavy discounting relates to a number of factors including (over) supply and competition - it is a hugely competitive marketplace with a number of "players" looking to carve a niche and attract market share. Is it a growing Market? Honestly I am not a OO modeller so do not know to what extent that may be true.

 

By contrast TT120 Market Share in the UK is as yet miniscule by comparison to any other major established scale and with only one principal supplier of locos and rolling stock (Hornby) who have almost complete control of pricing, alongside an as yet very limited range thus far and similarly constrained supply, I would not at this point expect to see any heavily discounted British TT120 models at present or indeed for some time to come until/unless the scale becomes more established and another manufacturer or two jump on board.

 

Roy

[BachelorBoy]

How long before the train set crowd lose interest in TT120 because Hornby hasn't launched much?

[J-Lewis]

50 minutes ago, BachelorBoy said:

How long before the train set crowd lose interest in TT120 because Hornby hasn't launched much?

That’s an assumption that the ‘train set crowd’ is a thing?  I mean obviously the TT sets have sold like hot cakes, but surely you have to factor in that everyone starting in TT120 is doing so from a blank slate, so clearly everyone jointing the scale will need to buy a set?

 

It’s not like TT is a train set quality product.  The detail on the locos is far beyond the average train set, and the ages of the average TT modeller seems to be somewhat outside the typical younger demographic for train sets?

[GenericRMWebUsername]

1 hour ago, BachelorBoy said:

How long before the train set crowd lose interest in TT120 because Hornby hasn't launched much?

Hornby will release five new locomotive TT tooling projects in 2024. The first of these has already arrived in England. The Class 50 has entered production, so it won't be long now. The Duchesses are either in production or about to be. 0-6-0T and Class 66 should arrive by the end of the year. Then there are an additional two more locomotives in tooling that we know of (another 0-6-0T and the Class 37). There's going to be plenty of new products in 2024 and into 2025. 

[teletougos]

2 hours ago, BachelorBoy said:

How long before the train set crowd lose interest in TT120 because Hornby hasn't launched much?

 

Reasonable question. I think there is such a crowd, having looked in on a few TT120 forums. Don't know the percentage tho.

 

Thinking generally, we're in an era where, when things are there, they're fantastic; endless possibility, sky's the limit . . . and then just as suddenly, they're not there.

 

That usually indicates a big risk has been taken. But the business model used, is doubtless inured to that. 

 

Guess the big risk here is that the manufacturing occurs in a place where Hornby has little ability to influence externalities. 

 

Unknown to me : do they have a backup strategy if delays start to see the train-set crowd fritter away ? 

 

Beyond a certain point, it all comes down to faith.

 

Edited February 26 by teletougos

[Flying Pig]

13 minutes ago, teletougos said:

Beyond a certain point, it all comes down to faith

 

 

[teletougos]

Where do I sign on for the Guangzhou School of Spanish Dancing ? 

[Porfuera]

On 24/02/2024 at 21:58, J-Lewis said:

I see that Sam’s Trains has decided that results of a poll on his channel means that nobody is buying TT?  😂

 

Hornby is definitely behind schedule with their releases, but they appear to have sold an absolute ton of A1’s and A4’s over the past year, the sets have been selling consistently, and ebay sales look pretty strong over the past year too.  Sam seems to have missed the evidence for those restocked sets taking the product slots that would have been booked for the newer locos.  A victim of their own success as it were.
 

However, I’d guess  we are almost certainly at (or close to) saturation point for those initial locos and ready for the new ones, and provided the big April announcement comes with some concrete release dates for phase 3/4 and some new announcements it should be onwards and upwards for the scale.

 

The goal is wide open for Hornby at this point.

 

I watched the Sam Strains (sic) video today and I thought it was a pile of unsubstantiated twaddle. Does he do any research or fact checking? Please don't answer that - I think I already know the answer! I think he made over a dozen assertions/suggestions that could easily be refuted with a bit of checking - or even with a bit of logical thought.

 

For example, according to Sam, Hornby have only produced three types of TT:120 locomotive (A3s, A4s and Class 08s) - no A1s mentioned anywhere in the video, despite A1s being the first TT:120 locos to appear. The TT:120 Flying Scotsman is also described as being an A3 and not an A1. Plus at one point he mentioned the "Flying Scotsman set" - OK, maybe it was just a slip of the tongue and it isn't exactly the end of the world but to me it adds to the feeling that he doesn't know what he's talking about and in any event it is something that could easily be corrected by putting some text into the video at that point to rectify the spoken error (as many others do).

 

But perhaps most interesting was that he considered the result of his poll to be "quite shocking" for Hornby TT:120. Based on his poll, 88% of respondents had no interest in TT:120, but he completely ignored the fact that 11% were actually modelling in TT:120 - either as first-time modellers (6%), switched from another scale (2%) or in addition to another scale (5%).

 

11% is a much higher figure than I would have expected - I would've reckoned on something more like 5% in total. Perhaps you could argue that TT:120 modellers felt more inclined to reply whereas modellers in other scales couldn't be bothered so maybe the results are weighted in favour of TT:120, but even so I think that result is pretty good for TT:120.

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Porfuera said:

 

I watched the Sam Strains (sic) video today and I thought it was a pile of unsubstantiated twaddle. Does he do any research or fact checking? Please don't answer that - I think I already know the answer! I think he made over a dozen assertions/suggestions that could easily be refuted with a bit of checking - or even with a bit of logical thought.

 

For example, according to Sam, Hornby have only produced three types of TT:120 locomotive (A3s, A4s and Class 08s) - no A1s mentioned anywhere in the video, despite A1s being the first TT:120 locos to appear. The TT:120 Flying Scotsman is also described as being an A3 and not an A1. Plus at one point he mentioned the "Flying Scotsman set" - OK, maybe it was just a slip of the tongue and it isn't exactly the end of the world but to me it adds to the feeling that he doesn't know what he's talking about and in any event it is something that could easily be corrected by putting some text into the video at that point to rectify the spoken error (as many others do).

 

But perhaps most interesting was that he considered the result of his poll to be "quite shocking" for Hornby TT:120. Based on his poll, 88% of respondents had no interest in TT:120, but he completely ignored the fact that 11% were actually modelling in TT:120 - either as first-time modellers (6%), switched from another scale (2%) or in addition to another scale (5%).

 

11% is a much higher figure than I would have expected - I would've reckoned on something more like 5% in total. Perhaps you could argue that TT:120 modellers felt more inclined to reply whereas modellers in other scales couldn't be bothered so maybe the results are weighted in favour of TT:120, but even so I think that result is pretty good for TT:120.

After a lot of peering down my nose at some of his antics, I've reached a realisation that his popularity suggests that Sam may represent the proverbial "man on the Clapham omnibus" in model railways.

 

He seems to have about as much steam-era prototype knowledge as most others who "weren't there"; I.e., an A1 is a loco like 'Tornado'. A Gresley one is too much like an A3 to notice any difference, especially at the level of detail on Hornby's TT:120 version.

 

Even allowing the caveat in your last paragraph, the take-up of the "new" scale has exceeded my initial expectations but continuing growth will be vital. It's way too soon to have any thought of levelling off.

 

We consumers can't know if the "new brooms" at Margate share the former team's evident commitment. Nor the point at which the bean counters will consider "critical mass" to have been achieved, and the long-term future of Hornby TT:120 becomes truly assured.

 

My personal indicator for that will be when another brand considers the market to be strong enough to come up with competing, rather than complementary, products.

 

John

 

Edited February 26 by Dunsignalling