Hornby announce TT:120

[Hobby]

Has it actually slackened, though,  maybe you think so, i don't. The general feeling is that the delays in new models arriving has been put down to having to use manufacturing slots for them to meet demand for what has been launched so far. There's arguments both ways whether this was the best way to go but at the end of the day we are only around 6 months behind where we should have been which isn't the end of the world. If feel you are over analysing things.

[Dunsignalling]

3 minutes ago, Hobby said:

Has it actually slackened, though,  maybe you think so, i don't. The general feeling is that the delays in new models arriving has been put down to having to use manufacturing slots for them to meet demand for what has been launched so far. There's arguments both ways whether this was the best way to go but at the end of the day we are only around 6 months behind where we should have been which isn't the end of the world. If feel you are over analysing things.

Perhaps, but "Phase Two" represented a doubling in the size of the range, a very significant stage in the development of any new venture like Hornby TT:120.

 

Intentional delays in other (established) scales always create more disruption. That has a direct effect on cash flow and, for that reason alone, I feel it would have been wiser to give new products priority over obtaining additional supplies of earlier releases.  

 

The danger is that the 6-month delay is likely to get baked in to the programme for at least a year (assuming that additional slots can then be obtained to catch up), with everything beyond similarly affected. 

 

[Jeff Smith]

Fitting in the Green 08, perhaps due to popular request, may have delayed at least one line.  Assuming these are extra units not just re-directed 08s.

[Pmorgancym]

So howvone everything tt120 us crammed onto one post why are there not seperzte topics for each release as you see for the rest of the Hornby range

[Steamport Southport]

7 minutes ago, Pmorgancym said:

So howvone everything tt120 us crammed onto one post why are there not seperzte topics for each release as you see for the rest of the Hornby range

 

There is.

 

This is the general thread about the Hornby TT:120 range.

 

 

 

Jason

['CHARD]

14 minutes ago, Pmorgancym said:

So how come everything TT120 is crammed onto one post?  Why are there not separate topics for each release, as you see for the rest of the Hornby range?

 

Sorry, it made my eyes hurt.

[Nile]

In no particular order:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There may be others I've missed.

[GenericRMWebUsername]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

Perhaps, but "Phase Two" represented a doubling in the size of the range, a very significant stage in the development of any new venture like Hornby TT:120.

 

Intentional delays in other (established) scales always create more disruption. That has a direct effect on cash flow and, for that reason alone, I feel it would have been wiser to give new products priority over obtaining additional supplies of earlier releases.  

 

The danger is that the 6-month delay is likely to get baked in to the programme for at least a year (assuming that additional slots can then be obtained to catch up), with everything beyond similarly affected. 

 

Generally, focusing all energy on meeting existing demand for existing products is the better move from a financial standpoint. Each tooling starts being depreciated at the time of release of the first locomotive. To illustrate why it's beneficial to focus on meeting existing demand, consider the following. Suppose you have the option to manufacture and sell 100 locomotives. You can either sell 100 of the same locomotives, or sell 100 of four different types (25 each). Each locomotive has a corresponding tooling cost that depreciates linearly over four years.If you were to start selling the four different locomotives, you would begin depreciating all four locomotive toolings simultaneously. By contrast, by selling one locomotive you can defer 75% of the associated depreciation expense to future years. Thus, from a profitability standpoint, selling the same locomotive 100 times is a far better solution.

 

It also is better for customer satisfaction. Making sure everyone who wants an A1/A3/A4 gets one is better than having everyone chasing after a limited quantity of new models. Releasing a new model that very few can get their hands on will make more frustration. Some could disagree with me, but I think the point is fairly intuitive. Right now you can go online and buy a Trigo and corresponding MK 3s. That lets new people into the hobby. 

 

And at a certain point it doesn't matter if everything has shifted back 6 months. Like someone taking a break from reading a book, there's a gap, but once they start reading again the story continues right where they left off. As long as Hornby returns to releases as more manufacturing slots become available, everything will arrive in due course. 

[Les1952]

18 hours ago, MartinRS said:

Or post here

 

 even better

 

Les

[Les1952]

12 hours ago, Chris M said:

Until the range increases dramatically TT:120 will be very much a train set scale; it won't be possible to build a serious model railway for the foreseeable future. I still haven't got over the Dawlish layout running nothing but LNER pacifics. Could have been a good layout if they had done it in N and used suitable stock.  The HSTs and 50s will improve that layout no end but that layout will still only have two classes of relevant motive power and there doesn't appear to be anything else suitable in the planning stages. You just can't make a proper model railway from the stock announced so far. TT:120 remains ideal for train sets though.

 

It will be interesting to see whether other manufacturers bring out any locos. It would be a big risk but it could just be a good move. 

 

OK so it is German, but it is a serious TT:120 model railway- with its first show next month.  Note the 08 in use and at least 2 other items of Hornby group rolling stock visibe.

 

Perhaps the words "UK Outline" should have been in the post.

 

Les

 

[BachelorBoy]

13 hours ago, MartinRS said:

I think I covered why Hornby failed to followed up with lots of other rolling stock quickly in response to your earlier suggestion that Hornby have increased bargaining power with Chinese producers.

 

 

You did give a good summary of China's economic problem, but your argument against my suggestion that Hornby doesn't have more bargaining power was bobbins.

 

Further, you didn't really address the specific issue of why Hornby didn't produce a wider variety of models sooner. I think it is fair to ask the question again: answering, or even thinking about an answer improves our understanding of how Hornby works. 

 

And yes, I don't have any TT:120. I am still sceptical about Hornby's ability to make TT:120 successful. I'll commit when I'm confident Hornby has got it right.

 

I want Hornby to succeed with TT:120 because I model metre gauge in 4mm.  The more TT modellers and manufacturers, the better.

[GenericRMWebUsername]

2 hours ago, BachelorBoy said:

You did give a good summary of China's economic problem, but your argument against my suggestion that Hornby doesn't have more bargaining power was bobbins.

 

Further, you didn't really address the specific issue of why Hornby didn't produce a wider variety of models sooner. I think it is fair to ask the question again: answering, or even thinking about an answer improves our understanding of how Hornby works. 

 

And yes, I don't have any TT:120. I am still sceptical about Hornby's ability to make TT:120 successful. I'll commit when I'm confident Hornby has got it right.

 

I want Hornby to succeed with TT:120 because I model metre gauge in 4mm.  The more TT modellers and manufacturers, the better.

Both Hornby's corporate and product communications teams have gone in depth into why they can't instantly begin manufacturing more models. There were significant supply chain issues resulting from COVID 19 lockdown measures that continued well into 2023 in mainland China. Simultaneously, there was strong demand coming from the certain countries (especially the United States) for consumer discretionary goods. This meant various firms were rushing to reserve manufacturing capacity while Chinese factories were regularly closed throughout much of late 2022 and early 2023. Even once Chinese manufacturing returned to maximum strength as zero-COVID policies were phased out, there was still an existing backlog.

 

Hornby's CEO reported in one of his most recent filings, that in this environment getting manufacturing capacity is incredibly difficult. According to his guidance, it can take anywhere from 12 months to 18 months to book additional capacity. This means production has to be booked more than a year in advance.

 

The initial manufacturing slots that Hornby booked for TT products would have been booked in mid to late 2021. They had no idea what the demand was going to be when they announced TT:120. Thus, they decided to be conservative so as to avoid having a huge glut of TT inventory that would be sitting in a warehouse collecting dust. 

 

This was a reasonable decision in 2021 when the production capacity was booked. It was not until January of 2023 that Hornby realized that TT demand was exceeding all expectations. Simon stated in January 2023 (in a since deleted video) that Scotsman sets Hornby had planned to sell for a year sold out in weeks. In a different more recent interview, Simon also shared that he was called before senior Hornby Group leadership and grilled for not booking enough manufacturing slots. He defended his conservative approach by pointing out that there was risk involved, and he was trying to be conservative. 

 

All of these anecdotes are backed up by Hornby's financial filings. Hornby's CEO explained that there was a glut of OO products in the system and not enough TT products. They triaged the situation by releasing temporary bundles. 

 

It was in this environment that Phase 2 delivery dates began to slip precipitously. Why? I was the individual that introduced the hypothesis that perhaps Hornby started to use production slots that would have been used on Phase 2 products to pump out more Easterner and Scotsman sets. I don't know how many times the Easterner and Scotsman sets have sold out. But I think they're both up to their 2nd or 3rd restock. Remember, Hornby didn't expect that they would have to do a single restock for all of 2023. 

 

This also aligns with financial statements where the CEO said their top priority was shipping sets out. Other products like Class 50s and Duchesses would inevitably be pushed aside for train sets. Why? Because they're the entry into the scale. 

 

While its true China's economy is having issues, US demand for Chinese products remains relatively robust. I don't think it will get better until the US consumer starts embracing starts cutting back. There are some indications of that, but it's too soon to get real immediate benefits for Hornby. 

 

Hornby was faced with a choice. They could either release Phase 2 products and not restock the sets, or delay Phase 2 and restock the sets. They chose to restock the sets. I think they made the right call. 

 

Hornby has a variety of great products in the pipeline for TT. For 2024 we are getting five newly tooled locomotives (Class 43, Duchesses, Class 50, Class 66, and a 0-6-0T [probably a Jinty]), three newly tooled wagons (TTAs, HHAs, and 21 Tons), four newly tooled coaches (MK 2F, LMS 57s, MK 3s, and MK 2E), and two new sets (British Pullman and LNER HST). Hornby also has confirmed new variants of the A4s, MK 1s, and 08s. So far, Hornby has delivered the TTAs and is on the cusp of delivering the Class 43s and MK 3s (I have seen certain people with Class 43 delivery dates for as early as today or tomorrow). That's three new tooling projects in the first two months of the year. The next batch of Class 43s/MK 3s will arrive in March/April. 

 

There are at least 2 more projects that are moving towards release. A Class 37 is slated for early/mid 2025 and an additional 0-6-0T (likely the J94) was confirmed as being in tooling March of 2023. So, that should also be a late 2024 early 2025 product. Taken together, all these products show a commitment to TT120 and an investment of significant resources. 2024 is going to be a fantastic year for Hornby TT:120!

[andrewshimmin]

I'm never quite sure if people wanting a bigger range really want a bigger range (i.e. they want to personally acquire dozens of products) or if it's just a way of saying they want the manufacturer to make the thing they personally want...

(I'm sure that's true of all of us!)

[Dunsignalling]

22 minutes ago, GenericRMWebUsername said:

Both Hornby's corporate and product communications teams have gone in depth into why they can't instantly begin manufacturing more models. There were significant supply chain issues resulting from COVID 19 lockdown measures that continued well into 2023 in mainland China. Simultaneously, there was strong demand coming from the certain countries (especially the United States) for consumer discretionary goods. This meant various firms were rushing to reserve manufacturing capacity while Chinese factories were regularly closed throughout much of late 2022 and early 2023. Even once Chinese manufacturing returned to maximum strength as zero-COVID policies were phased out, there was still an existing backlog.

 

Hornby's CEO reported in one of his most recent filings, that in this environment getting manufacturing capacity is incredibly difficult. According to his guidance, it can take anywhere from 12 months to 18 months to book additional capacity. This means production has to be booked more than a year in advance.

 

The initial manufacturing slots that Hornby booked for TT products would have been booked in mid to late 2021. They had no idea what the demand was going to be when they announced TT:120. Thus, they decided to be conservative so as to avoid having a huge glut of TT inventory that would be sitting in a warehouse collecting dust. 

 

This was a reasonable decision in 2021 when the production capacity was booked. It was not until January of 2023 that Hornby realized that TT demand was exceeding all expectations. Simon stated in January 2023 (in a since deleted video) that Scotsman sets Hornby had planned to sell for a year sold out in weeks. In a different more recent interview, Simon also shared that he was called before senior Hornby Group leadership and grilled for not booking enough manufacturing slots. He defended his conservative approach by pointing out that there was risk involved, and he was trying to be conservative. 

 

All of these anecdotes are backed up by Hornby's financial filings. Hornby's CEO explained that there was a glut of OO products in the system and not enough TT products. They triaged the situation by releasing temporary bundles. 

 

It was in this environment that Phase 2 delivery dates began to slip precipitously. Why? I was the individual that introduced the hypothesis that perhaps Hornby started to use production slots that would have been used on Phase 2 products to pump out more Easterner and Scotsman sets. I don't know how many times the Easterner and Scotsman sets have sold out. But I think they're both up to their 2nd or 3rd restock. Remember, Hornby didn't expect that they would have to do a single restock for all of 2023. 

 

This also aligns with financial statements where the CEO said their top priority was shipping sets out. Other products like Class 50s and Duchesses would inevitably be pushed aside for train sets. Why? Because they're the entry into the scale. 

 

While its true China's economy is having issues, US demand for Chinese products remains relatively robust. I don't think it will get better until the US consumer starts embracing starts cutting back. There are some indications of that, but it's too soon to get real immediate benefits for Hornby. 

 

Hornby was faced with a choice. They could either release Phase 2 products and not restock the sets, or delay Phase 2 and restock the sets. They chose to restock the sets. I think they made the right call. 

 

Hornby has a variety of great products in the pipeline for TT. For 2024 we are getting five newly tooled locomotives (Class 43, Duchesses, Class 50, Class 66, and a 0-6-0T [probably a Jinty]), three newly tooled wagons (TTAs, HHAs, and 21 Tons), four newly tooled coaches (MK 2F, LMS 57s, MK 3s, and MK 2E), and two new sets (British Pullman and LNER HST). Hornby also has confirmed new variants of the A4s, MK 1s, and 08s. So far, Hornby has delivered the TTAs and is on the cusp of delivering the Class 43s and MK 3s (I have seen certain people with Class 43 delivery dates for as early as today or tomorrow). That's three new tooling projects in the first two months of the year. The next batch of Class 43s/MK 3s will arrive in March/April. 

 

There are at least 2 more projects that are moving towards release. A Class 37 is slated for early/mid 2025 and an additional 0-6-0T (likely the J94) was confirmed as being in tooling March of 2023. So, that should also be a late 2024 early 2025 product. Taken together, all these products show a commitment to TT120 and an investment of significant resources. 2024 is going to be a fantastic year for Hornby TT:120!

 

The critical point will be whether/how soon Hornby can get their Phase 2 and subsequent release programme back on track, and that they  do not pull the same trick again.

 

Have they managed to secure additional slots this year to achieve that or will Phase 3 slip as well? 

 

For the as yet undecided, getting into TT:120 is still, to a fairly large extent, an act of faith. Belief that Hornby really is in it for the truly long term, and will deliver a more balanced set of models reasonably quickly for those who lack their Gresley obsession.

 

OK, it's a small sample, but....  I know one person who has already had a dabble with one set but is by no means yet "hooked", and about a dozen more who are thinking about it. One, I'm pretty sure, will move on an HST, but all the rest have said they have deferred buying decisions, not by the six months of the delay, but until next year. From the tone of conversation and the fact they've been spending quite heavily on OO9, I think a couple of them have already chosen a different route to space-saving....     

 

Overall, I get the feeling that playing catch-up on known demand, whilst good for Hornby's accounts, has significantly slowed the expansion of their TT:120 customer-base among my friends and acquaintances. For a venture that is, TBH, still in its commercial infancy, that is the last thing either Hornby, or those already committed to the scale, need. 

 

John

[Dunsignalling]

47 minutes ago, andrewshimmin said:

I'm never quite sure if people wanting a bigger range really want a bigger range (i.e. they want to personally acquire dozens of products) or if it's just a way of saying they want the manufacturer to make the thing they personally want...

(I'm sure that's true of all of us!)

 

The effect is the same, whichever.....

 

I'm on the side-lines here; too old to contemplate wholesale change because the range won't to grow enough in the lifespan I think I have left, and too space-limited to add a new scale without adversely impacting my existing interests.

 

It is interesting, though, having conversations with younger acquaintances who have different priorities/aspirations and established ones who already model in multiple scales.

 

Overall, I have become increasingly optimistic that r-t-r TT:120 does have a healthy future. However, I've been in this hobby too long not to recognise Hornby's potential for cocking things up! If that did happen, there's already enough "fringe" support to ensure a niche survival among the other TT varieties, anyway.

 

John

 

Edited February 28 by Dunsignalling

[009 micro modeller]

4 hours ago, BachelorBoy said:

I want Hornby to succeed with TT:120 because I model metre gauge in 4mm.  The more TT modellers and manufacturers, the better.

I was also interested in the idea of 00n3 conversion possibilities of Hornby TT stock, I’m just not sure that the stock they’ve released so far necessarily lends itself to this (though it might do for larger metre/3’ 6” gauge overseas prototypes in H0m).

[teletougos]

On 27/02/2024 at 08:00, Chris M said:

Until the range increases dramatically TT:120 will be very much a train set scale; it won't be possible to build a serious model railway for the foreseeable future. I still haven't got over the Dawlish layout running nothing but LNER pacifics. Could have been a good layout if they had done it in N and used suitable stock. 

 

 

I'm sure any current TT layout could be better if only it was built to use 9mm track and use N gauge stock.

 

Errrr, but wait . . .

[teletougos]

1 hour ago, 009 micro modeller said:

I was also interested in the idea of 00n3 conversion possibilities of Hornby TT stock, I’m just not sure that the stock they’ve released so far necessarily lends itself to this (though it might do for larger metre/3’ 6” gauge overseas prototypes in H0m).

 

Think someone's already sized up the Pacific chassis for the 3'6" Tasmanian M class out of Robert Stephenson & Hawthorn, 1952. However the downfall would be the SCOA-P driving wheels. 

[natterjack]

37 minutes ago, teletougos said:

However the downfall would be the SCOA-P driving wheels.

3D print plus etch and 3mm/N Gauge tyres ? I'm curious as to the warranty position with the use of a brand new chassis in a 'conversion'?

[Porfuera]

On 27/02/2024 at 08:00, Chris M said:

Until the range increases dramatically TT:120 will be very much a train set scale; it won't be possible to build a serious model railway for the foreseeable future.

 

Really? Perhaps you should take a look at the following video. The "it won't be possible" has been done already.

 

But then I guess it is much easier for all those that don't like TT:120 to knock it by complaining about how small the range is or how slow Hornby are at getting it to market or how they've made the wrong choices of locos than it is to get on and do something about those things.

 

 

 

[teletougos]

27 minutes ago, natterjack said:

3D print plus etch and 3mm/N Gauge tyres ? I'm curious as to the warranty position with the use of a brand new chassis in a 'conversion'?

I think you have to lengthen the leading bogie, may invalidate warranty ? 

[teletougos]

16 minutes ago, Porfuera said:

 

 

 

But then I guess it is much easier for all those that don't like TT:120 to knock it by complaining about how small the range is or how slow Hornby are at getting it to market or how they've made the wrong choices of locos than it is to get on and do something about those things.

 

 

The externality which is not negotiable and says TT has a  future, is room sizes in contemporary UK houses and flats.

 

Even for many current American modellers, an HO layout using the standard diesel loco of the past 50 years, the SD40-2, is out. It's too long. 

 

A class 66 IRL is as long as an SD40-2, even longer in OO. About a foot long. To justify it on a layout, you need wagons, increasingly long, bogie ones, and you need a few of them. In OO, such a layout no longer fits along a standard bedroom wall.

 

So even if Hornby fail, this alone would surely make someone else try TT.  

 

T.I.N.A.

[009 micro modeller]

1 hour ago, teletougos said:

Think someone's already sized up the Pacific chassis for the 3'6" Tasmanian M class out of Robert Stephenson & Hawthorn, 1952.

For 4mm or 3.5mm scale? Ideally for 3’ 6” it needs to be H0 (ignoring for a moment that I think some historical Tasmanian railway modelling uses 00, despite the gauge difference, because of the availability of relevant British stuff for conversions).

 

8 minutes ago, teletougos said:

 

The externality which is not negotiable and says TT has a  future, is room sizes in contemporary UK houses and flats.

 

Even for many current American modellers, an HO layout using the standard diesel loco of the past 50 years, the SD40-2, is out. It's too long. 

 

A class 66 IRL is as long as an SD40-2, even longer in OO. About a foot long. To justify it on a layout, you need wagons, increasingly long, bogie ones, and you need a few of them. In OO, such a layout no longer fits along a standard bedroom wall.

 

So even if Hornby fail, this alone would surely make someone else try TT.  

 

T.I.N.A.

Does this imply that the best niche for TT is modern prototypes?

[natterjack]

21 minutes ago, 009 micro modeller said:

Does this imply that the best niche for TT is modern prototypes?

Er, long bogie wagons, coaches and coupled locomotives are not exactly new.

[NBL]

25 minutes ago, teletougos said:

 

The externality which is not negotiable and says TT has a  future, is room sizes in contemporary UK houses and flats.

 

Even for many current American modellers, an HO layout using the standard diesel loco of the past 50 years, the SD40-2, is out. It's too long. 

 

A class 66 IRL is as long as an SD40-2, even longer in OO. About a foot long. To justify it on a layout, you need wagons, increasingly long, bogie ones, and you need a few of them. In OO, such a layout no longer fits along a standard bedroom wall.

 

So even if Hornby fail, this alone would surely make someone else try TT.  

 

T.I.N.A.

It all depends on the setting and context.  You can use big locos on small layouts.

 

On a recent trip to the states I was watching a big six axle unit, an ES44 (I think) switching 3 timber carriers over 3 sidings in an industrial estate, hemmed in by buildings.  This could be fitted in a 4ft scenic section in HO.

 

I took a good look at the Hornby HST at model rail Scotland and I think it's a great size.  Not too small and carries some of the heft that 4mm has.

 

I would start buying stuff if they, or another manufacturer make what interests me.