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Hornby Loss


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On 11/12/2022 at 21:59, Andy Hayter said:

 

We've been here before.  There is some limited production in Eastern Europe but it would cost.  Compare the cost of a Roco pacific loco in H0 (ca £380) with the cost of a Hornby one in 00 (ca £230).  

 

The days when Comicon workers would work for a few kopeks per hour are long gone.

 

Theres a big difference between countryside and city, but if your in a city in EE  wages are very attractive, even to western europeans.

Wages in Poland, Czech and Hungary, in modern skillsets. (IT especially) are now higher than in the UK, and in some cases stunningly higher.

 

Disposable income is quite high too, as despite inflation, cost of living there is much lower too… in short younger educated Eastern Europeans in cities are living the dream… they wont be making trains.. they are buying them in volumes higher than we do some of ours.

 

It would be cheaper to manufacturer here than there.

 

 

Edited by adb968008
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9 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

All true, but ignoring one very substantial segment of the hobby, collectors (including unintentional ones that have accumulated 40-odd Hornby Bulleid Pacifics, almost without noticing). In my defence, I am pretty disciplined where other things are concerned!

 

Their total spend probably dwarfs that of we who use (or aspire to use) our models.  

 

John

 

At least one of my local model shops reports that his customers who are collectors (as opposed to modellers) are a dying breed, and that a significant and increasing number of his collectors are suffering from dementia, whereas almost none of his customers who are modellers show any sign at all...

 

Within our model club the only dementia sufferers have been collectors who do little or no modelling.

 

Significant segment of the hobby now, but in decline.

 

Les

Edited by Les1952
typos as usual
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9 minutes ago, Les1952 said:

 

At least one of my local model shops reports that his customers who are collectors (as opposed to modellers) are a dying breed, and that a significant and increasing number of his collectors are suffering from dementia, whereas almost none of his customers who are modellers show any sign at all...

 

Within our model club the only dementia sufferers have been collectors who do little or no modelling.

 

Significant segment of the hobby now, but in decline.

 

Les

 

Given that all the big-spending collectors I've encountered, other than those interested in what I consider antiques (dating from before my teens - I'm 70, so pre-1965) have very much majored on Hornby, that'll be yet another factor to add to the company's woes. 

 

I acquired at least half of my "accidental collection" second-hand for detailing, renaming and conversion to variants not produced by Hornby or ones already "done" by TMC etc, often for less than gets asked for standard ones! I have four on the go at the moment, two of which were bought from Hatton's as non-runners but easily fixed.

 

So long as I remember which bits need to go on each of them, I'll consider myself safe for now! 😀

 

John   

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31 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

Given that all the big-spending collectors I've encountered, other than those interested in what I consider antiques (dating from before my teens - I'm 70, so pre-1965) have very much majored on Hornby, that'll be yet another factor to add to the company's woes. 

 

John   

 

However it is a big incentive for Hornby to find new, a very much younger, market.   Hence TT:120....

 

Les

Edited by Les1952
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1 hour ago, Les1952 said:

 

At least one of my local model shops reports that his customers who are collectors (as opposed to modellers) are a dying breed, and that a significant and increasing number of his collectors are suffering from dementia, whereas almost none of his customers who are modellers show any sign at all...

 

Within our model club the only dementia sufferers have been collectors who do little or no modelling.

 

Significant segment of the hobby now, but in decline.

 

Les

Ive got no chance then.

 

Now I know why I dont know what day it is.

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1 hour ago, Les1952 said:

 

However it is a big incentive for Hornby to find new, a very much younger, market.   Hence TT:120....

 

Les

For Hornby's sake, I hope that sales to that  new, very much younger clientele grow faster than those to existing OO buyers shrink.

 

For me Hornby need to announce more big-ticket items that I actually want, i.e., in the main, (OO) locomotives. Those have been pretty thin on the ground while they've been working through all the A2/P2/W1 combinations followed by yet another retool of the A3 (we must need the fingers both hands to count those by now!). Have they got it right yet? Never mind, I have less interest in any of them than in catching the flu, and on top of that, they now have a new baby to raise!

 

Presumably Hornby consider there's more to be gained from buyers of all that than they are missing from the likes of me, so it's largely academic.

 

TBH, I find it no longer bothers me much either. if Hornby continue not to cater for my wants, there's more than enough to keep my plastic under pressure coming from elsewhere, and (so far) most of it seems to be as least comparable with Hornby's best....

 

John

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Looking on the Hornby TT:120 forum there are quite a number of questions being posted there from modellers who are new to the hobby-

 

Also questions from newbies on two of the FB forums that I have seen.

 

Augurs well for the future of the hobby.

 

Revamps of big ticket items in OO seem to be getting smaller production runs each time.  Soon we'll be down to the size of the early Dapol A3, A4 and B1 runs in N-gauge- these were 300 per identity (at least according to the spreadsheets the then Dapol Dave sent me for looking over before the production orders went in).

 

Les

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1 hour ago, Les1952 said:

Looking on the Hornby TT:120 forum there are quite a number of questions being posted there from modellers who are new to the hobby-

 

Also questions from newbies on two of the FB forums that I have seen.

 

Augurs well for the future of the hobby.

 

Revamps of big ticket items in OO seem to be getting smaller production runs each time.  Soon we'll be down to the size of the early Dapol A3, A4 and B1 runs in N-gauge- these were 300 per identity (at least according to the spreadsheets the then Dapol Dave sent me for looking over before the production orders went in).

 

Les

Quantity will also be everything with the new scale. Can Hornby put on volume in TT:120 faster than they lose it in OO? 

 

Bear in mind, too, that the British N market is, by most estimates, somewhere between 5% and 10% of the size of that for OO. Hornby limited editions of 500 generally sell out in weeks rather than months. Also, of course, for every subject modelled in r-t-r N there are a dozen or more in OO, so even 1,000 of each identity (probably the minimum non-limited run in reality) constitutes a lot of individual models. 

 

If Hornby mess up this time, unlike on previous occasions, there are plenty of competitors ready to take as much of their (OO) market as they want, with no necessity to acquire a load of stuff they don't fancy by mounting a takeover bid.  

 

The paradox for both Hornby, and adopters of British-outline TT:120 is the dependence of each upon the other. Hornby has created a whole new market segment, at least in part to evade increasing competition in their core OO business.

 

They therefore won't actually want to see competitors entering the field too soon. Conversely, many of their customers would gain confidence from the scale's future not being dependent on a single supplier. If it goes well enough, competitors are likely (though by no means certain) to pile in, and Hornby may find themselves back where they started from with the OO situation. I don't consider that inevitable though; if those competitors are making hay with OO market share won from Hornby, they might think it an unnecessary distraction.

 

OTOH, If TT:120 fails to thrive, or grows slower than Hornby need it to, its prospects will hang on any shortfall against expectations not being enough for Hornby to bail, in the way that Tri-ang dropped its predecessor, or for it to bring the company down altogether. In the latter scenario, the survival of the new scale would be highly doubtful.    

 

Perhaps the best outcome, for all concerned, would be for TT:120 to do well enough to keep Hornby afloat alongside a gently declining share of the OO market. Dropping OO entirely would be unthinkable in any sensible timescale and I reckon part of Hornby's strategy, once TT:120 gets established, Hornby will know what OO market share they need to keep in order to maintain profitably. A small producer or two to add a little credibility to TT:120 but no real challenge, and everything in the Hornby garden would be rosy. Any hint of "Terriergate" style shenanigans, though, and nobody else will touch it with a bargepole. That might be what Hornby think they want, but is probably not what TT:120 needs....

 

John

 

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I dunno about all this, I was at Warley and thought Hornby had some great future OO models in EP form on what has to be described as a very impressive exhibition stand - with a large TT display.

 

I’m a relatively recent returnee to railway modelling and RMWeb and am not used to the apparent queue of people who have lots of ideas for how Hornby should be running their business (although there was a very long running thread about them dealing with model shops - of which there aren’t that many these days other than very large including high volume on line operations, which also commission models (usually from Hornby’s competitors). This is not new on specialist hobby forums - pick almost any subject and they have people doing this, usually with extensive sage armchair/ keyboard advice for one or two specific manufacturers.

 

A couple of points however - I noticed at Warley (first time I’ve ever been) and commented to my friends that the volume of elderly and grey haired visitors was extremely high and one guesses that it is these who buy the highly detailed OO scale models which Hornby participate in (I bought one of their superb 9Fs this year), but it seems there are several manufacturers vying for that market.

 

I suspect Hornby are improving their offerings to remain in that market but are trying to appeal also to other demographics and particularly younger people or children (or parents/grand parents of them). The TT stuff looked really good to me. I’m guessing there’ll always be a market for highly detailed OO scale models but I just wonder for how long people of advancing years will be willing to buy ‘the ultimate Deltic’ etc etc?? 

 

I can’t help feeling this thread might be making a mountain out of a mole hill - surely Hornby’s major sales volume would be in the run up to Christmas - now if they’re making a loss then, perhaps it would be more worrying - however conjecture without all the info (which we are not party to) is simply that. Perhaps we should try and be a bit more positive about Hornby - as I said, I’m fairly recently back into this hobby and do find some of the negativity rather tiresome….. although some of the points made do make sense based on the conjecture. 

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Ultimately the only really important thing for us as consumers is whether products of an acceptable level of quality and detail we want to buy continue to be available at a price we're willing to pay.

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10 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

Bear in mind, too, that the British N market is, by most estimates, somewhere between 5% and 10% of the size of that for OO. ...

 

John

 

 

So between 3% and say 7% of the total all gauges market? I would really like to see the up-to-date evidence to support that. 

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8 hours ago, MidlandRed said:

I dunno about all this, I was at Warley and thought Hornby had some great future OO models in EP form on what has to be described as a very impressive exhibition stand - with a large TT display.

 

I’m a relatively recent returnee to railway modelling and RMWeb and am not used to the apparent queue of people who have lots of ideas for how Hornby should be running their business (although there was a very long running thread about them dealing with model shops - of which there aren’t that many these days other than very large including high volume on line operations, which also commission models (usually from Hornby’s competitors). This is not new on specialist hobby forums - pick almost any subject and they have people doing this, usually with extensive sage armchair/ keyboard advice for one or two specific manufacturers.

 

A couple of points however - I noticed at Warley (first time I’ve ever been) and commented to my friends that the volume of elderly and grey haired visitors was extremely high and one guesses that it is these who buy the highly detailed OO scale models which Hornby participate in (I bought one of their superb 9Fs this year), but it seems there are several manufacturers vying for that market.

 

I suspect Hornby are improving their offerings to remain in that market but are trying to appeal also to other demographics and particularly younger people or children (or parents/grand parents of them). The TT stuff looked really good to me. I’m guessing there’ll always be a market for highly detailed OO scale models but I just wonder for how long people of advancing years will be willing to buy ‘the ultimate Deltic’ etc etc?? 

 

I can’t help feeling this thread might be making a mountain out of a mole hill - surely Hornby’s major sales volume would be in the run up to Christmas - now if they’re making a loss then, perhaps it would be more worrying - however conjecture without all the info (which we are not party to) is simply that. Perhaps we should try and be a bit more positive about Hornby - as I said, I’m fairly recently back into this hobby and do find some of the negativity rather tiresome….. although some of the points made do make sense based on the conjecture. 

There are, though plenty of people (of all ages) who don't go to shows, or at least don't make the pilgrimage to the biggest one..

 

I'm a member of the "grey army" but haven't been to Warley for several years - it just became too much like hard work to do it up and back in a day from where I live. I'm hoping to go next year but that will involve turning the trip into a short holiday with a few nights in a hotel and attending the Motorbike Show, too.

 

The detail thing is a poser. Hornby offer a reduced level/greater robustness in their Railroad range, but nobody else seems to consider that worthwhile. Detail, it seems, is still a major factor for those spending the money.

 

The other poser is who is (or might be) replacing we oldies as we exit the scene for whatever reason. Back in my youth, a high proportion of kids got train sets. Some persevered through their teens, others gave up but came back later. Now, the popularity of train sets seemed to fall away (imho) as real railways became more uniform and less interesting. Say what you like, no "unit" will ever grab the attention of the uninitiated as instantly as a big throbbing locomotive. Thomas etc. redressed the balance but catered for a younger audience that are perhaps less likely to "follow through " into adulthood but may well return in middle age as many of us did.   

 

There is also the question of wooden trains for infants, and Lego ones for older children. I've never seen any analysis of what, if any, effect they might have on folk moving on to scale models later in life.

 

Whatever the total picture, though, it seems clear that there is enough life left in the hobby to attract more new players than I remember at any previous period of my life. The nearest I recall is the Airfix/Mainline/Lima boom of the late 1970s, which didn't survive long in its original state.

 

The current cadre of new players seems able to equal Hornby on all levels, and in some cases for less money, which is a matter for concern if you are Hornby and feel a need to maintain your position at the top of the tree. Hence Hornby diversifying into a second scale which, TBF, all their more established competitors did years ago.

 

As a consumer, though, I am being offered items that I would never have expected Hornby to produce, so what's not to like?

 

John  

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29 minutes ago, Mike Harvey said:

 

So between 3% and say 7% of the total all gauges market? I would really like to see the up-to-date evidence to support that. 

It varies quite widely across areas (N is said to be especially popular in the English Midlands), but a former  trade contact (retired a couple of years ago) reckoned that was the local position, more or less. He also said that not only did he have fewer customers for N but they tended to buy fewer items per capita. 

 

That might reflect financial factors or could be due to being offered less to buy! I know a few ex-N modellers who switched to O gauge, so I suspect it's not the former!

 

Either way, N clearly forms a significantly smaller segment of the overall UK market than it occupies in most other nations. Why? No idea!

 

John

Edited by Dunsignalling
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1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

It varies quite widely across areas (N is said to be especially popular in the English Midlands), but a former  trade contact (retired a couple of years ago) reckoned that was the local position, more or less. He also said that not only did he have fewer customers for N but they tended to buy fewer items per capita. 

 

That might reflect financial factors or could be due to being offered less to buy! I know a few ex-N modellers who switched to O gauge, so I suspect it's not the former!

 

Either way, N clearly forms a significantly smaller segment of the overall UK market than it occupies in most other nations. Why? No idea!

 

John

 

I would accept that N predominates in the Japanese market, but without evidence for the UK market share for N, the assertion that the UK N share is smaller than in most other nations is meaningless. In my experience, taking our nearest neighbours as examples,  N in France and Belgium is a much much smaller market proportion than in the UK.

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21 minutes ago, Mike Harvey said:

 

I would accept that N predominates in the Japanese market, but without evidence for the UK market share for N, the assertion that the UK N share is smaller than in most other nations is meaningless. In my experience, taking our nearest neighbours as examples,  N in France and Belgium is a much much smaller market proportion than in the UK.

Either way, for someone who made his living selling model trains, it was a quidsworth of sales for every twenty spent in OO, and that's what really counted. Actually, I was a bit surprised it was that high!

 

I only know a few N-gaugers and half of them do American, which few UK model shops stock!

 

It is what it is. People generally choose N for the amount of railway they can fit into the space they have rather than its relative popularity.

 

John 

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12 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

Bear in mind, too, that the British N market is, by most estimates, somewhere between 5% and 10% of the size of that for OO. Hornby limited editions of 500 generally sell out in weeks rather than months. Also, of course, for every subject modelled in r-t-r N there are a dozen or more in OO, so even 1,000 of each identity (probably the minimum non-limited run in reality) constitutes a lot of individual models. 

 

......

 

The paradox for both Hornby, and adopters of British-outline TT:120 is the dependence of each upon the other. Hornby has created a whole new market segment,

 

OTOH, If TT:120 fails to thrive, or grows slower than Hornby need it to, its prospects will hang on any shortfall against expectations not being enough for Hornby to bail, in the way that Tri-ang dropped its predecessor, or for it to bring the company down altogether. In the latter scenario, the survival of the new scale would be highly doubtful.    

 

Perhaps the best outcome, for all concerned, would be for TT:120 to do well enough to keep Hornby afloat alongside a gently declining share of the OO market. Dropping OO entirely would be unthinkable in any sensible timescale and I reckon part of Hornby's strategy, once TT:120 gets established, Hornby will know what OO market share they need to keep in order to maintain profitably. A small producer or two to add a little credibility to TT:120 but no real challenge, and everything in the Hornby garden would be rosy. Any hint of "Terriergate" style shenanigans, though, and nobody else will touch it with a bargepole. That might be what Hornby think they want, but is probably not what TT:120 needs....

 

John

 

 

2 hours ago, Mike Harvey said:

 

So between 3% and say 7% of the total all gauges market? I would really like to see the up-to-date evidence to support that. 

 

 

The only hard figures I've seen were in the TT-120 thread, and resulted from me following up a link from one of the Continental members posting.

 

These were for various countries - I'm trying to find the actual links discussion, but from memory e British market share stats were based on a Model Rail survey of about 2009/10 and showed 10% market share for N and somewhere around 85% + for 4mm. The OO market share was significantly higher than HO in other countries and the N gauge share barely half of what's typical , though elsewhere N's share has been drifting downwards gradually . In the late 90s apparently N had a 28% market share in the US. (I  would have expected N to show modest market share gains in Britain over the last decade)

 

Bachmann have been quoted as saying that Farish runs at about 20% of their OO sales. But Farish is the main player in British N , Hornby are the biggest player in 4mm and don't do N at all, and therefore 10-12% looks like an entirely credible figure for N 's market share

 

Why it's so much lower than in other countries is a good question

 

But nowhere outside Japan is N the dominant scale, nowhere is it even half the share of OO/HO and it is gently losing ground , not making inroads...

 

 

 

Edited by Ravenser
Correcting the 4mm market share - much higher than I remembered
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Here's the post:

 

On 12/10/2022 at 14:52, murphaph said:

In western Europe, beyond Germany, TT is highly niche to the point of non-existence but in eastern Europe including the former GDR, TT is a major player, rivalling H0. The figures are a little out of date but things won't have changed radically:

https://modelleisenbahn.info/marktanteile-der-spuren

 

It's in German but the graphs for GDR and for Russia in 2004 show what the picture is broadly like in the former communist bloc.

 

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Splendid - the return of the “let’s make up market share figures out of our heads to suit our prejudices” thread. Core sources being a twelve-year-old magazine survey and what some long-retired model shop acquaintance mentioned he reckoned from a few years back.  
 

I’m not sure that the ONS has anything to worry about, in the same way I’m pretty certain that Harvard Business School won’t be recruiting from all the wealth of consultancy advice available to Hornby in this site.

 

Still, it passes the time!

 

Bah, and, indeed, humbug.

 

RichardT

Edited by RichardT
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1 hour ago, RichardT said:

Splendid - the return of the “let’s make up market share figures out of our heads to suit our prejudices” thread. Core sources being a twelve-year-old magazine survey and what some long-retired model shop acquaintance mentioned he reckoned from a few years back.  
 

I’m not sure that the ONS has anything to worry about, in the same way I’m pretty certain that Harvard Business School won’t be recruiting from all the wealth of consultancy advice available to Hornby in this site.

 

Still, it passes the time!

 

Bah, and, indeed, humbug.

 

RichardT

 

And the 2009 survey was a readership survey not a market survey, which may or may not be skewed by the magazine’s scale specific content.  You couldn’t make it up………..well it seems like you can.

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5 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

 

The other poser is who is (or might be) replacing we oldies as we exit the scene for whatever reason. Back in my youth, a high proportion of kids got train sets. Some persevered through their teens, others gave up but came back later. Now, the popularity of train sets seemed to fall away (imho) as real railways became more uniform and less interesting. Say what you like, no "unit" will ever grab the attention of the uninitiated as instantly as a big throbbing locomotive. Thomas etc. redressed the balance but catered for a younger audience that are perhaps less likely to "follow through " into adulthood but may well return in middle age as many of us did.   

 

 

If they dont make it they cant buy it.

I dont buy “kids dont like units”… my little one lives it, not only that shes a “she” and when were out theres dozens of kids who are all over trains.

I see them regularly

 

But what it isnt…

 

is ABC buyers, standing on platforms writing down numbers.

Too many of us on here are simply old school.

When I was a kid it was a “middle aged mans hobby”

Yet every 2 weeks Lima made 3 new locos reflecting what happened last month.

 

But middle aged men didnt associate with the kids riding 20,21,37 and 47… they were too busy lamenting Black. 5’s A4s and such like… moaning about the end of the hobby as we know it, how kids dont understand and arent interested.

 

Today those kids are middle aged adults.. moaning just like the parents and the grand parents.

 

2016-2022 was a definite era in UK railways, and is the harvest for railway modellers in the future… the trouble is we dont have a “Lima” making everything that ran last month, as they are too busy tooling up a war on the middle aged and the grandparents to notice…

 

todays kids watch it online, youtubers, instagram, rail cams etc no abcs any more. Some have over a million subscribers… who are they if they arent rail enthusiasts ?

They turn up enmasse for events, showing they are out there.

 

Thats why the newcomers are so succesful… they see it.


Personally I think the future of the hobby is modern units, and pre1923. Everything else is becoming duplication, marginal or niche… that gene pool will shrink.

 

i’m not ONS, though I do stats as good as anyone, but in this instance i’m simply using my eyes….

 

On steam railtours, the number of photographers lineside are in decline since 2008. Diesel has grown and If the economies of the country work out it could grow further.

 

I say photographers, as its a better barometer to the hobby than passengers… Photographers are more likely to be modellers, than the dining elite that frequent most steam railtours, and have edged out the enthusiasts from those tours.

 

who in 1991 would think a 47/7 on mk3 pushpulls would be a sell out railtour in just a few days ? - but some wont believe it even if they were on it… and I bet those passengers are not the “luxury dining types” on board, but enthusiasts… the interest wheel has turned.

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3 hours ago, RichardT said:

Splendid - the return of the “let’s make up market share figures out of our heads to suit our prejudices” thread. Core sources being a twelve-year-old magazine survey and what some long-retired model shop acquaintance mentioned he reckoned from a few years back.  
 

I’m not sure that the ONS has anything to worry about, in the same way I’m pretty certain that Harvard Business School won’t be recruiting from all the wealth of consultancy advice available to Hornby in this site.

 

Still, it passes the time!

 

Bah, and, indeed, humbug.

 

RichardT

That's right. Read half the post and tear into what you wanted it to say.

 

Since when did two years count as ancient history? Though I agree that my pal's numbers only apply to one shop and another one twenty miles away might come up with numbers the same, double or half his. 

 

Personally, N is very much peripheral for me, but I am intrigued by an apparent need by some to talk up it's position in the market. Does even knowing it matter unless you are contemplating entering the industry?

 

Businesses are putting in real money to model railways and they are the ones with an accurate picture of what comes back relative to what goes out.

 

Just follow the money. Where is current new investment going, N, TT, OO, O?

 

Work out the relative proportion of that, and (except for TT) the most recent known market shares will be spookily similar.  

 

John

 

 

 

Edited by Dunsignalling
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4 hours ago, Ravenser said:

Bachmann have been quoted as saying that Farish runs at about 20% of their OO sales. But Farish is the main player in British N , Hornby are the biggest player in 4mm and don't do N at all, and therefore 10-12% looks like an entirely credible figure for N 's market share

That's not so. The only figures I've seen quoted by Bachmann Europe  (in 2017) is that Farish was 20% of their turnover, and Branch-Line (I.e OO) was 50% (Liliput was 18%, all the rest including agencies 12%). So at that time it was 40% of their OO sales. Given how little new N gauge — or even re-runs — they have done since then, things may have changed. 


I've seen analysis that N gauge has a 10% market share overall in Britain. But what is being measured? The sales of British outline N gauge or the sales of N gauge in Britain. These will not be the same. My feeling is that there is a larger proposition of European and US outline modellers in N than in OO and HO. Some of this is due to the relative crudity of most British N gauge models before Bachmann took over Farish. Also US models take up much more room in HO than British OO often does.

 

N gauge is becoming a cheaper option now. Once N gauge models were the same price as OO, or even higher, but not any more: the Rapido OO GWR B-set is three times the price of the Dapol N gauge one. It's also becoming the main scale for modelling multiple units, especially where more than 2 cars are concerned. The 313/14/19/20 and 321 are all, so far, only available in N, and the 120 and Electrostar are proposed.

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