UK food shortages/prices/production madness

[melmoth]

4 minutes ago, spikey said:

 

Ta for that.  What exactly is that site (i.e. how authoritative on a scale of 0 -10) and who's this Colman chappie?

 

No idea how authoritative, but the paper is hosted on the website of the Kyushu University Faculty of Agriculture ( https://www.agr.kyushu-u.ac.jp/english/about/ ), so it is hopefully academically rigorous. David Colman is/was an agricultural economist

[hmrspaul]

30 minutes ago, melmoth said:

 

No idea how authoritative, but the paper is hosted on the website of the Kyushu University Faculty of Agriculture ( https://www.agr.kyushu-u.ac.jp/english/about/ ), so it is hopefully academically rigorous. David Colman is/was an agricultural economist

I've skimmed it, and it looks accurate.

 

MAFF / DEFRA have always published annual statistics of production - more recently reduced as it was perceived as being rather more beaurocratic than a 10 yearly census. It needed one of the largest computers in the government service in the 1970s and 80s (I believe only the Met office Crays were larger). 

 

It does also remind me of the other change when I joined - we had just joined the EEC. They expected us to import a lot of grain, instead of getting it long distances from Australia and the Americas. But, the farming community realised the Common Agricultural Policy paid a lot for growing grain crops so much of Britain was ploughed up - much as had happened during the war - and went from poor quality grazing land to grain production, requiring considerable fertiliser and pesticide inputs. I know much about this change because my job required me to learn about the grain import trade and I visited large importers - in Barry, Cardiff, Hull, LIverpool as well as small ones such as on the East coast ports and inland on the Humber. I just wish I'd had the guts to take some photos but I was cautious about revealing my interest in railways. 

 

Paul

[Reorte]

4 hours ago, melmoth said:

 

And the last time the UK was self-sufficient in food was when exactly? Certainly not since the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846.

Indeed, we've been in a fundamentally messed up situation for quite some time. I suppose in the late 19th century the solution was an empire, but we shouldn't want to go back to that even if we could. Trade with others is great, dependency is not.

[pH]

2 hours ago, hmrspaul said:

I know much about this change because my job required me to learn about the grain import trade and I visited large importers - in Barry, Cardiff, Hull, LIverpool as well as small ones such as on the East coast ports and inland on the Humber. I just wish I'd had the guts to take some photos but I was cautious about revealing my interest in railways. 

 

Paul

You would like it here, then. We get CPR grain trains passing through on the way to the Vancouver docks to be unloaded onto ships for export. Here’s a CPR document describing current and proposed size/capacity of these trains. It’s quite something to think, as one of them passes, “There goes about 11,000 tons of food!”.

 

https://www.cpr.ca/en/our-markets-site/Documents/Grain-Car-Infographic-FINAL.pdf

 

But Canada is not self-sufficient in food, either. Much of the fruit and vegetables is imported from the US, from places like California. When they have problems (drought or flooding - take your pick) supply is restricted and prices go up.

Edited March 4, 2023 by pH

[Reorte]

52 minutes ago, pH said:

You would like it here, then. We get CPR grain trains passing through on the way to the Vancouver docks to be unloaded onto ships for export. Here’s a CPR document describing current and proposed size/capacity of these trains. It’s quite something to think, as one of them passes, “There goes about 11,000 tons of food!”.

 

https://www.cpr.ca/en/our-markets-site/Documents/Grain-Car-Infographic-FINAL.pdf

 

But Canada is not self-sufficient in food, either. Much of the fruit and vegetables is imported from the US, from places like California. When they have problems (drought or flooding - take your pick) supply is restricted and prices go up.

I'd argue that self-sufficient simply means that without any imports or exports the population wouldn't starve - does Canada produce enough of that? It doesn't mean that you wouldn't end up with a mostly monotonous diet, because I'm certainly not saying countries shouldn't trade for food, just that they shouldn't have to simply to survive.

[Ozexpatriate]

2 hours ago, pH said:

But Canada is not self-sufficient in food, either. Much of the fruit and vegetables is imported from the US, from places like California. When they have problems (drought or flooding - take your pick) supply is restricted and prices go up.

And of course the US imports tropical fruit (avocados, bananas, pineapples and others) from Central America.

[Ozexpatriate]

1 hour ago, Reorte said:

I'd argue that self-sufficient simply means that without any imports or exports the population wouldn't starve - does Canada produce enough of that?

Canadian agricultural capacity (far beyond actual production which is capped) is massive - particularly grains, livestock and dairy. Far more than what is needed domestically. The same is true in the US.

[Michael Hodgson]

2 hours ago, pH said:

But Canada is not self-sufficient in food, either. Much of the fruit and vegetables is imported from the US, from places like California. When they have problems (drought or flooding - take your pick) supply is restricted and prices go up.

Yes, but the same is true if you have similar problems with home-grown produce.  Supply vs demand in a market economy means that a poor harvest causes prices to rise.  Government intervention for political reasons might impact the effect however (for example the current energy subsidy to domestic consumers in this country)

[pH]

2 hours ago, Reorte said:

I'd argue that self-sufficient simply means that without any imports or exports the population wouldn't starve - does Canada produce enough of that?

- Bread from Prairie wheat

- Pacific salmon from BC

- Alberta beef

- Fruit and wine from the Okanagan in BC and from Ontario

- Maple syrup from Quebec

- Doughnuts and coffee from Tim Horton’s all across Canada

 

Yes, we could live on that! 👍

[hmrspaul]

3 hours ago, pH said:

You would like it here, then. We get CPR grain trains passing through on the way to the Vancouver docks to be unloaded onto ships for export. Here’s a CPR document describing current and proposed size/capacity of these trains. It’s quite something to think, as one of them passes, “There goes about 11,000 tons of food!”.

 

https://www.cpr.ca/en/our-markets-site/Documents/Grain-Car-Infographic-FINAL.pdf

 

But Canada is not self-sufficient in food, either. Much of the fruit and vegetables is imported from the US, from places like California. When they have problems (drought or flooding - take your pick) supply is restricted and prices go up.

Yes I've seen the grain in Vancouver and also in Quebec - although at -25C I wasn't hanging around to take photos of grain wagons. I managed a number in Vancouver including 

https://PaulBartlett.zenfolio.com/international/e5d08bca2  https://PaulBartlett.zenfolio.com/americanwagon/e5d08d4c  https://PaulBartlett.zenfolio.com/americanwagon/e5d090f7e   https://PaulBartlett.zenfolio.com/americanwagon/e5d232d5c

 

Paul

Edited March 4, 2023 by hmrspaul

[OnTheBranchline]

23 hours ago, pH said:

- Bread from Prairie wheat

- Pacific salmon from BC

- Alberta beef

- Fruit and wine from the Okanagan in BC and from Ontario

- Maple syrup from Quebec

- Doughnuts and coffee from Tim Horton’s all across Canada

 

Yes, we could live on that! 👍

 

Barely qualify as food - Tim Hortons has had a big drop in food quality over the years.

[pH]

4 minutes ago, OnTheBranchline said:

 

Barely qualify as food - Tim Hortons has had a big drop in food quality over the years.

I still like their Boston cream donuts!

[OnTheBranchline]

found online: 
One person’s rationed goods allowance for one week, United Kingdom, 1951
 

[Hroth]

20 minutes ago, OnTheBranchline said:

found online: 
One person’s rationed goods allowance for one week, United Kingdom, 1951
 

 

And lots and lots of veg.

Apparently we were a lot healthier for it.

 

 

[Reorte]

Rather a lot of butter, margarine and sugar in that for one person for a week!

[OnTheBranchline]

25 minutes ago, Hroth said:

 

And lots and lots of veg.

Apparently we were a lot healthier for it.

 

 

But there was more cigarette smoking back then so were people actually healthier? 

[Talltim]

  

1 hour ago, OnTheBranchline said:

found online: 
One person’s rationed goods allowance for one week, United Kingdom, 1951
 

Mystery meat

Edited March 8, 2023 by Talltim

[Michael Hodgson]

Well at least you could get an egg!  Try doing that in my local supernarket today.

[Hroth]

24 minutes ago, OnTheBranchline said:

But there was more cigarette smoking back then so were people actually healthier? 

 

More cancer, less morbid obesity. 

[Reorte]

1 hour ago, Hroth said:

 

More cancer, less morbid obesity. 

Better medicine now too of course. Different problems for different times.

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, Talltim said:

  

Mystery meat

Ideal for a curry then.😃

[MarkC]

I'm presently spending a lot of time in the region of the Straits of Gibraltar, and the weather here is definitely not what is normal for this time of year - cooler, overcast & sometimes quite rainy too. A friend of mine was one of the support crew for a Paris-Dakar Rally competitor a few weeks ago - he couldn't believe how cool it was, even at the southern end of Morocco. So, no wonder there's a tomato shortage - conditions aren't good.

 

Mark

[alastairq]

Plenty of eggs in my local farm shop.....

[johnofwessex]

This may be of interest

 

https://www.thelandmagazine.org.uk/articles/can-britain-feed-itself#:~:text=Simon Fairlie investigates,template for making similar calculations.

[jjb1970]

I was in the supermarket yesterday and noticed there was no spring onions or shallots. Which probably means that they are waiting for a ship or trucks from Malaysia to deliver more. It's normal here to notice products drop off the shelves from time to time, people seem much more pragmatic in understanding that there's a supply chain and buy something else if there's a shortage. 

 

I may be cynical, but I get the impression that some of those who complain about shortages think that food just appears and have zero appreciation for just how well supermarkets manage their supply chains and logistics.

 

I still think the supermarkets, transport and agricultural/manufacturing segments did a remarkable job to adapt to the exceptional conditions of the pandemic yet many seemed very reluctant to acknowledge just what an excellent job was done to keep things going.