Why was HS1 built with so much less fuss than HS2?

[phil-b259]

3 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

 

Pendolinos will be scrapped, and not replaced.

 

Indeed - but we tend to forget that by the time HS2 opens the Pendlions will very much be in their twilight years!

 

The average lifespan of passenger rolling stock, particularly InterCity stuff subject to high mileages is typically between 30-40 years (the longevity of the HST fleet is very much an exception rather than the norm).

 

As such the Pendalinos WILL be replaced.... but there is obviously a question mark as to what with (particularly in respects to top speed as once you go above 110mph the design standards get much stricter.

 

 

[The Stationmaster]

5 hours ago, DLT said:

But the whole point of HS2 is long distance high speed travel, separate from local transport.  Putting stopping services on it would defeat the object.  Wouldn't it?

Not quite.

 

The whole point of the ill-named HS2 is to create line capacity to relieve the over-done WCML.   It has the added advantage of easing speed differentials by taking away numerous faster paths (if it ever does all of what it was meant to do) which aids capacity even further on the WCML.  and putting it very simply unless the WCML is relieved of traffic then it is going to fall to pievces ever more rapidly with reduced opportunities for possessions and too many passing wheel sets hammering it.

 

As a new route there is considerable logic in building it as a very high speed railway.  But that idea seems to have mutated into something grossly excessive rather than settling around the cheaper idea of equalling SNCF LGV speeds (which keep costs down by permitting relatively steep gradients to be used).

 

As I've said prec viously I have long favoured a 'Chilterns Parkway' although the exact site is one for considerable debate.  But SNCF experience shows that these additional stations require some very careful thought because some of them there have fallen well short of hopes & traffic level expectations.

[phil-b259]

7 hours ago, Dava said:

Last time I looked, HS1 was mainly owned by the Canadian Teachers Pension Fund.

 

 

 

Technically I believe HS1 is only leased by the pension fund, and much like the channel tunnel or the M6 Toll road, there is a mechanism in there which says if the Pension company goes bust for example then the infrastructure reverts to UK Government ownership.

[adb968008]

Might be better calling anything north of Birmingham HS3.

[The Stationmaster]

38 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Technically I believe HS1 is only leased by the pension fund, and much like the channel tunnel or the M6 Toll road, there is a mechanism in there which says if the Pension company goes bust for example then the infrastructure reverts to UK Government ownership.

I think the Canadian Teachers' Pension Fund bowed out of the CTRL lease a while back.

[lmsforever]

The furor over HS2 is very mixed those of us who can see the reasoning behind its construction are very unhappy at the way this project is controled by those in power. Politicians are showing their contempt for voters by without consultation they are threatening to cut the line back to a very short high speed section making it useless in its primary purpose .I noted the very pertinent problems being created by not being able to join trains for the north and above the border,at Milton Keynes at the moment this is a very important place to join your train .I personally have used this route many times and the thought of having to join a local train to Crewe gives me cause for worry.   But the biggest problem is a lack of Euston  this is almost criminal and is going to put many people using the services .But maybe this is what no 10  wants then they can announce that we do not need high speed  a very convenient way of diverting cash to more popular projects and that way the public will like them . Just how many trains will be required for a reduced service so more money saved  and once the works are completed all the  nay sayers will be quietened down until the next campaign is started. What a way to run a country.

[MidlandRed]

1 hour ago, The Stationmaster said:

Not quite.

 

The whole point of the ill-named HS2 is to create line capacity to relieve the over-done WCML.   It has the added advantage of easing speed differentials by taking away numerous faster paths (if it ever does all of what it was meant to do) which aids capacity even further on the WCML.  and putting it very simply unless the WCML is relieved of traffic then it is going to fall to pievces ever more rapidly with reduced opportunities for possessions and too many passing wheel sets hammering it.

 

As a new route there is considerable logic in building it as a very high speed railway.  But that idea seems to have mutated into something grossly excessive rather than settling around the cheaper idea of equalling SNCF LGV speeds (which keep costs down by permitting relatively steep gradients to be used).

 

As I've said prec viously I have long favoured a 'Chilterns Parkway' although the exact site is one for considerable debate.  But SNCF experience shows that these additional stations require some very careful thought because some of them there have fallen well short of hopes & traffic level expectations.

If HS1 is anything to go by, and specifically Ebbsfleet (around parallel to Northfleet on the North Kent line), when you consider you can drive from the centre of Maidstone by high speed road (most of the way), say 20 mins, and then travel to St Pancras International in 18 mins it’s hardly surprising so many people use it as a park and ride - I never understood the volume of car parking provided but a lot is in use on this basis these days - it’s also possible to interchange to many routes from Stratford International. 
 

For those who think HS1 does not help most towns in Kent, the effectively, roundabout circuit takes in Gravesend, all of the main Medway towns, Sittingbourne, Faversham, the north and East Kent coast towns to Ramsgate, Canterbury, Ashford, Folkestone, Dover. As I’ve just said, Ebbsfleet is easy to get to from Maidstone (which also has direct commuter services). Ashford to St P is 37 mins - I know of a number of people who commute from there, Canterbury and the Kent coast route - I also know people who commute to the dock lands developments via HS1, Stratford Int, tube and or/DLR. Transport links and opportunities are transformed. The Elizabeth Line adds further opportunities from Abbey Wood. 

 

I’m also astonished the LAs along HS2 haven’t lobbied harder for something to help their travellers and residents. 

[phil-b259]

8 minutes ago, MidlandRed said:

 

 

I’m also astonished the LAs along HS2 haven’t lobbied harder for something to help their travellers and residents. 

 

probably because they know its a non starter.

 

I repeat...

 

HS1 has lots of capacity to have stations in Kent and feeder services precisely because it has such a small Eurostar service!

 

By contrast the French high speed line from Paris to Liile is extremely busy because its intensively used by trains to Belgium etc and as such the one intermediate TGV station gets a rubbish service because it inhibits the primary function of the line as an artery for long distance services.

 

The British HS2 is designed to function just like the Paris - Liile section of the French high speed network. HS2 exists as a trunk to suck in a huge number of services from the north of England then whisk them south to the capital with as little interruption as possible - plonking in lots of stations or adding in spurs for home counties commuters wrecks that strategic function or alternatively means said commuter additions get a truly rubbish service.

 

HS2 is NOT a commuter railway, HS1 very much is - so stop trying to compare two very different things!

[MidlandRed]

11 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

HS2 is NOT a commuter railway, HS1 very much is - so stop trying to compare two very different things!

I think you’ll find Birmingham to London is precisely a commuter railway.

 

HS1 was not conceived as a commuter railway - that it gained a very useful longish distance commuter service is precisely because of the strategic local authorities along the route lobbying for such over a significant period - I was there and know that - they also sought and obtained huge amounts of finance for significant highway improvements around Kent resulting from the Channel Tunnel.

 

Im not really comparing one with the other (although this is a thread about HS1 and its development compared to HS2) merely stating a view (with some knowledge of their approach) that the strategic authorities that the route passes through seem to have missed opportunities to lobby for better strategic transportation outcomes (in contrast to HS1). 

[woodenhead]

25 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

HS2 is NOT a commuter railway, HS1 very much is - so stop trying to compare two very different things!

A line where the commuter trains are kicked off at the first available junction and only exist because councils lobbied for them.

 

It's great fun zooming through the tunnels but HS1 is first and foremost a high speed rail link to France and with Stratford, Ebbsfleet and now Ashford closed to international passengers it looks even more like a true high speed railway, even the Javellins only make one stop on the actual line.  HS2 is quite similar actually - one stop at Old Oak, now the west equivalent of Stratford, and that's it still Birmingham International.  Maybe all those tunnels including the green ones are the consequence of council's lobbying for stations on HS2 and the Goverment turning them down so they demanded tunnels instead to get their vote in favour i.e. if I am not going to benefit then I want it out of sight, a bit like the old land owners in Victorian times.

[The Stationmaster]

1 minute ago, woodenhead said:

A line where the commuter trains are kicked off at the first available junction and only exist because councils lobbied for them.

 

It's great fun zooming through the tunnels but HS1 is first and foremost a high speed rail link to France and with Stratford, Ebbsfleet and now Ashford closed to international passengers it looks even more like a true high speed railway, even the Javellins only make one stop on the actual line.  HS2 is quite similar actually - one stop at Old Oak, now the west equivalent of Stratford, and that's it still Birmingham International.  Maybe all those tunnels including the green ones are the consequence of council's lobbying for stations on HS2 and the Goverment turning them down so they demanded tunnels instead to get their vote in favour i.e. if I am not going to benefit then I want it out of sight, a bit like the old land owners in Victorian times.

One heck of a big difference between the connectivity at the Stratford hub than will ever be the case at Old Oak.  

 

Stratford has direct access to two tube lines, plus two DLR routes and the Liz Line as well as the GEML and a major 'bus interchange right outside the station.

 

In comparison Old Oak will have the LizLine and possibly some GWML trains although calls there will hit line capacity so might not be too popular with GWR and won't offer a route which is any quicker than most existing routes to Birmingham off the GWML.  Both of the tube routes are a good walk away including one footpath that used to be known as a mugger's paradise (the footpath leading to North Acton on the Central Line).    Yes there is huge local housing development but in reality the connectivity will really come down to the Liz Line and whatever 'bus routes will use Old Oak Lane.  The one saving grace will be the Liz Line connection which creates new routes for people crossing London and from/to the inner part of the GWML where journey times to Birmingham (and beyond?) will be quicker than going via Reading on Cross Country.

[adb968008]

56 minutes ago, MidlandRed said:

I think you’ll find Birmingham to London is precisely a commuter railway.

 

No it isnt.

This is a myth.

 

if your a pro family living in Brum, youve got a mortgage and kids.

Add in parking and an annual ticket to London your soon coming uo against two issues..

1. travel cost

2. travel reliability.

 

The north has benefitted wfh since covid, as the need to be in London reduced.

 

Before covid. If you wanted a London salary, you needed to be in London. Move up north the salary declined very fast.

it might be you had £80k in London, in Manchester it was £40k.

HS2 promised a bridge, live up north, have a London salary.

 

However, since covid, Business adapted, instead of offering an £80k job in London, plus desk costs, they offered a £60k wfh job up north.

 

Salaries down south have declined, up north young IT Pros are having a party.

But what they are not doing is commuting daily to London.

A lot of IT pros have left London, flats in London have declined in value, in some cases considerably.

London proportionately was home to a large dispora of fluctating European citizens, who have since left the UK following that vote and creating that void of mcjobs weve seen the last few years.

 

London is in decline, salaries falling and central London offices being repurposed.. into yet more airbnb flats which will contribute further to that price decline.. Hotels will suffer as Zone 1 becomes AirBNB capital of Britain.

 

The second part is reliability.. Strikes, Failures, Leaves on the line, leaking tunnels, protestors, bomb scares….

If you live in London even if the district line goes pop, you still have at least 2 modes to get you home.

if Hs2 goes pop… your stranded 120 mile away from your children and the taxi will cost you a fortune, if you can find/afford one.

 

Where does this leave HS2 passenger figures… well look at WCML today, as its the same, just shifted to another line… whats more why build a new OC Community and yet more flats, the bargains will be in zone1/2 so why live next to a prison, and a rundown business zone with no city connections ? The last thing London needs right now is more flats.

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by adb968008

[phil-b259]

19 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

A line where the commuter trains are kicked off at the first available junction and only exist because councils lobbied for them.

 

 

Lobbied for or not, the simple fact that Eurostar only occupies 2 paths each hour is what makes such junctions and stations feasible.

 

Moreover there is pretty much zero scope to increase that Eurostar service because the limiting factor is the French LGV Nord - which is full!

 

The ONLY WAY you would be able to run more Eurostars is if the French build a second LGV Nord (say via Amiens to Calais) - but quite frankly why would they bother now the UK has decided to isolate itself from European integration 

 

By contrast (assuming the northern connection to the WCML and Euston are finished HS2)  will immediately have in the region of 10 trains per hour (2x Manchester 1x Liverpool 1x Preston 1x Scotland 3 x Birmingham using it - with the potential for loads more including the likes of Derby, Nottingham and Sheffield if the Eastern leg gets built or maybe even North Wales if electrification ever heads that way!

 

In other words Phase 1 of HS1 is far more comparable to the LGV between Paris and Lille than it is to HS1 

 

 

 

[melmerby]

20 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Why not reopen the Great Central….?

 

a. oh hang on a minute… much of it already is being reopened in HS2..

 

which parts are not reopening ?

b. The parts that didnt make money last time.

c. The large amounts now under housing, factories etc. and Victoria is now a Shopping centre with a nice view of the north tunnel portal from it's car park.

Oh and NET has taken some south of the Trent

[MidlandRed]

32 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

 

Stratford has direct access to two tube lines, plus two DLR routes and the Liz Line as well as the GEML and a major 'bus interchange right outside the station.

Also two overground services - the North London one via Hackney, Dalston etc is particularly busy. Easy reach by Jubilee line of West Ham (one stop), another significant interchange. 

[MidlandRed]

28 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

No it isnt.

This is a myth.

 

if your a pro family living in Brum, youve got a mortgage and kids.

Add in parking and an annual ticket to London your soon coming uo against two issues..

1. travel cost

2. travel reliability.

 

The north has benefitted wfh since covid, as the need to be in London reduced.

 

Before covid. If you wanted a London salary, you needed to be in London. Move up north the salary declined very fast.

it might be you had £80k in London, in Manchester it was £40k.

HS2 promised a bridge, live up north, have a London salary.

 

However, since covid, Business adapted, instead of offering an £80k job in London, plus desk costs, they offered a £60k wfh job up north.

 

Salaries down south have declined, up north young IT Pros are having a party.

But what they are not doing is commuting daily to London.

A lot of IT pros have left London, flats in London have declined in value, in some cases considerably.

London proportionately was home to a large dispora of fluctating European citizens, who have since left the UK following that vote and creating that void of mcjobs weve seen the last few years.

 

London is in decline, salaries falling and central London offices being repurposed.. into yet more airbnb flats which will contribute further to that price decline.. Hotels will suffer as Zone 1 becomes AirBNB capital of Britain.

 

The second part is reliability.. Strikes, Failures, Leaves on the line, leaking tunnels, protestors, bomb scares….

If you live in London even if the district line goes pop, you still have at least 2 modes to get you home.

if Hs2 goes pop… your stranded 120 mile away from your children and the taxi will cost you a fortune, if you can find/afford one.

 

Where does this leave HS2 passenger figures… well look at WCML today, as its the same, just shifted to another line… whats more why build a new OC Community and yet more flats, the bargains will be in zone1/2 so why live next to a prison, and a rundown business zone with no city connections ? The last thing London needs right now is more flats.

 

 

Rather like HS1 services, when there is disruption people migrate to services from Victoria, Cannon St, Charing Cross, London Bridge - HS2 it would be WCML, Chiltern, GW etc etc. 

 

Notwithstanding the other economic factors you mention,  journey time on HS2 will surely be commutable and there will be excellent linkages to other routes and modes at the Birmingham end. 
 

One of the main changes to commuting has been the growth of hybrid working - say two or three days in the office, the rest at home. I can see HS2 attracting business traffic. 

[RichardT]

4 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

 

To give one example, because of the higher unemployment rates in many northern areas (thus the grater number of people needing financial support) following the decline of heavy industry what each person there gets on a £ per person basis is actually grater than happens in the south where less financial assistance is needed.

Previously you made a comment along the lines that the south deserves more because more tax revenue is raised there. That piece of ignorance was bad enough, but now this.

 

This situation is a direct result of a deliberate political choice by the Thatcher governments in the 1980s to implement a shock-therapy of rapidly deindustrialise the UK, with no compensatory investment to reskill or reinvest in the deindustrialised areas  - but rather to ignore them in favour of an industrial policy focused on financial services almost entirely favouring the south east of England. Resulting in a massive flow of money and - more tragically in terms of building for the future - bright young people towards London and its environs, producing the current ludicrous housing costs in the SE and the most economically-unbalanced country in Europe.
 

If you have so little knowledge of why the broken economic landscape of the country now looks the way it does, and why there are constant pleas to redress the investment balance between the SE and the rest so that EVERYONE who is a citizen of this country has a chance to fulfil their potential, for the betterment of us all, then can you do some reading before commentating in future?  
 

And, at the very least, please do not repeat your gratuitously-insulting and repulsive “whinging northerner” comment again.  
 

RichardT

 

 

[Pete the Elaner]

3 hours ago, adb968008 said:

 

Those saying the alternative to wcml capacity is only HS2, there was no other option…. Well actually there was…

 

build a freight only line instead of a HS line… take the freight off wcml frees up the lines to simply slow and fast passenger lines…. However how would you get that idea approved ?

 

of course banning freight during daylight on the wcml is too easy…

 

 

Bad idea. Why?

Freight has no problem existing with local services. The 2 have a concertina effect as the local service stops to set down/pick up, then quickly accelerates to its line speed, so their average speed is similar.

 

If the solution is to build a new line, it is better to take the least compatible class of train away & that is the long distance one with few stops.

 

The WCML frequently has overnight engineering work. 'Fast' trains which leave Euston after 10pm take 50minutes instead of 30 to reach Milton Keynes because the timetable is designed to cope with line closures without adjustment.

The early morning sleeper trains are regularly late due to engineering work. Sending all freight at this time would compound the problem.

 

3 hours ago, adb968008 said:

 

funny thing whenever I try to watch wcml freight, theres precious little of it… the class 86,90’s are all stood down.. theres more UK AC freight locos in Bulgaria than the UK.

 

where exactly is this capacity constraint ?.. i’d like to go see it.

 

 

Freightliner still have a fleet of 90s. Only DB have removed them from service. Most WCML freight is class 66 hauled & has been for several years.

I don't know when you go looking for freights, but I often used to pass 2 of them on my way home from work before my semi-fast switched to the slow lines before stopping at Leighton Buzzard. That was in addition to any heading the other way.

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, RichardT said:

Previously you made a comment along the lines that the south deserves more because more tax revenue is raised there. That piece of ignorance was bad enough, but now this.

 

This situation is a direct result of a deliberate political choice by the Thatcher governments in the 1980s to implement a shock-therapy of rapidly deindustrialise the UK, with no compensatory investment to reskill or reinvest in the deindustrialised areas  - but rather to ignore them in favour of an industrial policy focused on financial services almost entirely favouring the south east of England. Resulting in a massive flow of money and - more tragically in terms of building for the future - bright young people towards London and its environs, producing the current ludicrous housing costs in the SE and the most economically-unbalanced country in Europe.
 

If you have so little knowledge of why the broken economic landscape of the country now looks the way it does, and why there are constant pleas to redress the investment balance between the SE and the rest so that EVERYONE who is a citizen of this country has a chance to fulfil their potential, for the betterment of us all, then can you do some reading before commentating in future?  
 

And, at the very least, please do not repeat your gratuitously-insulting and repulsive “whinging northerner” comment again.  
 

RichardT

 

 

 

The point was that there are a whole bucket load of issues (including those you have outlined and a lot of which involve politics) to be worked through and just complaining "the south has got more new build railway stuff" - which IS what you were doing earlier -is a grose over simplification of a very complicated issue!

 

Its like going to the doctor and demanding antibiotics without actually considering if antibiotics are actually the most appropriate treatment in the first place!

 

If you which to discuss the (very real) north - south divide in detail, including origins, and potential solutions (which would be very interesting  things to explore I hasten to add) then please open a new thread to do so - not to continue to raise them here on the HS2 thread as that is supposed to be about the railway being built - not a place to undertake a deep analysis of the country's and society's woes over the past couple of centuries

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by phil-b259

[Mallard60022]

How about really improve and upgrade to fast and almost direct services on the routes to Manchester (via Hope Valley) and Sheffield/Leeds from St Pancrearse. That helps a hell of lot more folk  and releases space on the WCML. 

Most business types work on the Train anyway, so journey time isn't really that important IF reliability, comfort and service is offered and given. 

OR shove more freight on those routes with full Electrification?

NO idea if the Engineering is possible!

OR make what was HS2 into a dedicated Freight line!

My good pal, who is retired now, but was a seriously important Business operator in Brum and across the West Midlands, has absolutely no idea why HS2 was proposed and why it is still staggering onwards in it's present form, with the proposed number and frequency of non Stop Services. He is quite clear that local Business types prefer and will pay to fly from Brum to Docklands and will continue to do that until flying is banned!

Phil

[phil-b259]

8 minutes ago, Mallard60022 said:

He is quite clear that local Business types prefer and will pay to fly from Brum to Docklands and will continue to do that until flying is banned!

 

 

Of course if the Government actually meant what they said with regards to climate targets rather than simply greenwashing then they would do exactly that.

 

Quite frankly with Birmingham and London well linked by train already there is very little justification for domestic flights between the two - HS2 will reduce that justification even further.

 

Such a policy would also open up slots for domestic airlines to serve places for which rail is never going to be realistic.

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by phil-b259

[adb968008]

Is there flights from LCY to BHX… ive never seen one in decades ?

LHR to BHX was axed several decades ago.

i’m not even sure LCY has MAN flights either anymore.

 

LCY has only ever gone up in the world, ever since it started, leaving s/h domestic flights behind.

 

Gone are the days of Dundee, Leeds, Newcastle etc… ScotAir, VLM and Air France running donestic UK flights.

 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by adb968008

[melmerby]

22 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

Is there flights from LCY to BHX… ive never seen one in decades ?

LHR to BHX was axed several decades ago.

i’m not even sure LCY has MAN flights either anymore.

 

LCY has only ever gone up in the world, ever since it started, leaving s/h domestic flights behind.

 

Gone are the days of Dundee, Leeds, Newcastle etc… ScotAir, VLM and Air France running donestic UK flights.

According to BHX, flights within UK tomorrow:

Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Inverness, Belfast, Channel Isles & IOM.

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by melmerby

[adb968008]

40 minutes ago, melmerby said:

According to BHX, flights within UK tomorrow:

Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Inverness, Belfast, Channel Isles & IOM.

 

None of them are to London, which is what was being implied.

 

BHX to London has been dead to aviation for a long time, HS2 isnt killing it, I think was that long ago that it was class 86’s and DVTs that killed it.

LCY only seems to have Glasgow, Edinburgh and IOM now.

 

edit: online elsewhere suggests 1991 BMI gave it up from LHR, but LGW kept it a little longer with a regional airline.

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by adb968008

[Clearwater]

12 hours ago, Dava said:

Last time I looked, HS1 was mainly owned by the Canadian Teachers Pension Fund.

 

Eventually, when HS2 is completed in whatever limited form, it will also probably be sold to an international owner, such as Dubai, India, China. But it’s viability is very much in question from the constraints being made on the route. 
 

Dava

 

They sold to HICL a few years ago.  There were various issues with CTRL, as it was originally known, with the traffic forecasts being woefully inaccurate leading London and Continental Railways unable to list as they had planned.  This led to a rescue financing into the link in the CTRL 1 and CTRL 2 both effectively backed by the government through the issue of Government Guaranteed Bonds.  Once the link was opened, the concession was restructured to the current 30 year link with de facto volume guarantees, supported by Gov, for the domestic and international services.  A privatisation process was run in, from memory, 2010.  Was a competitive auction.  Ironically, a colleague and I pitched buying it to HICL but they weren't interested at the time.  From memory, OTPP and OMERS won and later, as is the way, elected to sell the asset one when it was brought by HICL.  HICL is quoted on the stock exchange - you can buy shares in it should you so desire.

 

Depending on how they structure the infrastructure charges will define whether it is attractive for overseas yield focused investors to buy.