Hornby TT Easter announcement 2024

[irishmail]

3 hours ago, BrakeCoach said:

I think it would be safe to assume that kids who like trains nowadays would still love the HST and the A3 and A4. Timeless classics.

I would say that the HST/125 is the diesel equivalent  of Flying Scotsmam or Mallard.

[TT-Pete]

And another one in agreement, in my case having dabbled with Hornby 1:120 I have now decided to remain with 3mm, and although I think some in the 3mm Society saw it as a threat, it perhaps works well as a recruiting sergeant. Stange how things can work out sometimes.

[ellocoloco]

12 hours ago, Ravenser said:

once a model 66 exists in TT, then someone will keep making one

 

Full agree with the rest of the points you've made and a very interesting post. I dumped OO 35 odd years ago on discovering OO/HO were not actually the same and went for the more accurate HO. The existence of HO 66s has  allowed me to come back to British modelling in my chosen scale.

 

I don't know if this has been mentioned as I'm not contemplating TT and have not read all the threads, but Hornby's launch of UK outline TT models, to my mind is very similar to Bachmann's launch of high standard Chinese outline models in HO around 1999. In both cases the scale was already established in other countries but did not really exist at home. In the case of the UK, there are plenty of alternatives, in China, Bachmann were effectively creating a new market which sounds very familiar to what Hornby have hinted at here. Looking at   https://www.chinesemodeltrains.com/ the number of Chinese outline models now available would suggest this new market is now well established. @jjb1970 and @TEAMYAKIMA would be able to correct me if necessary.

 

I would suspect TT will have the same development here.

 

If it had existed 35yrs ago I doubt I would have gone HO. The attraction of an accurate scale/gauge should not be underestimated and although it might have taken 80ish years for Hornby to get this right, it's here now.

[TEAMYAKIMA]

4 minutes ago, ellocoloco said:

I don't know if this has been mentioned as I'm not contemplating TT and have not read all the threads, but Hornby's launch of UK outline TT models, to my mind is very similar to Bachmann's launch of high standard Chinese outline models in HO around 1999. In both cases the scale was already established in other countries but did not really exist at home. In the case of the UK, there are plenty of alternatives, in China, Bachmann were effectively creating a new market which sounds very familiar to what Hornby have hinted at here. Looking at   https://www.chinesemodeltrains.com/ the number of Chinese outline models now available would suggest this new market is now well established. @jjb1970 and @TEAMYAKIMA would be able to correct me if necessary

 

Yes, I can confirm that there is now a flourishing Chinese home market for Chinese model railways in HO and N - still small, but flourishing.

 

I couldn't agree with you more - TT120 looks so much better than OO in that the scale matches the gauge - for me that is very noticeable.

[RyanN91]

13 hours ago, irishmail said:

I would say that the HST/125 is the diesel equivalent  of Flying Scotsmam or Mallard.

Agreed although I'm just surpised it's taken Hornby forty-one years to re-produce the Inter-City 125 in it's Original livery and appearance as a full train set again of any gauge! 

Edited April 8 by RyanN91
Typo forty-one

[jjb1970]

2 hours ago, TEAMYAKIMA said:

 

Yes, I can confirm that there is now a flourishing Chinese home market for Chinese model railways in HO and N - still small, but flourishing.

 

I couldn't agree with you more - TT120 looks so much better than OO in that the scale matches the gauge - for me that is very noticeable.

 

Chinese HO does illustrate the problems of establishing a new segment as it has taken the Chinese hobby a long time to establish what it now quite a comprehensive range, but it also illustrates that if there is demand it can be done and that other companies will join in (the old 'build it and they will come' argument). Bachmann started the Chinese hobby but now it seems to be companies like Changming, MTC, N27 etc making the running. 

[Ravenser]

Apologies for a delayed reply , but some of the issues are worth teasing out

 

On 07/04/2024 at 21:08, Roy L S said:

There are so many points made in the above that I agree with, but a few I do not: -

 

"There are a lot of people in the hobby who have "bounced off" N. Over the years I've seen a lot of comments of the form " Haven't got a lot of space or a layout,  started off in OO, tried N but it wasn't for me/found it too fiddly/couldn't get on with it so here I am, back in OO . Now how do I do something in the limited space I've got?"

 

I think there will inevitably be some, but I would challenge there being "a lot" and certainly not enough to in itself warrant an entirely new scale being developed.
"

"

 

 

Being in 4mm/OO for many years, I'm well aware of a large group of people who are "in 4mm" but do not have a layout, have never had a model railway of their own since the trainset stage, and have no obvious prospect of building a model railway of their own in the foreseeable future because they don't have space to do so in 4mm at home 

 

The classic solution to this conundrum is to get involved with an exhibition layout group - often a club group - as an operator/stock provider. The exhibition layout provides an opportunity to run your stock. This is a major motivation for people joining model railway clubs. Otherwise you end up buying stock, or less commonly making it, for a "oneday, maybe" layout dream, going to shows and accumulating a pile of boxes at home , in hope. I suspect quite a few of the posters in RTR threads, including some of the heavy posters , fall into this category. It might be very salutary to check "where's the layout?"

 

At a personal level 15-20 years ago I spent some time heavily involved with an abortive club layout project, and nearly everyone involved seemed to fit the profile I've described. Indeed in the last analysis the reason the project failed was there was almost no practical layout building experience in the group. 15  years down the line a number of the individuals concerned , to the best of my knowledge, have still not built a layout of their own

 

It's this sort of situation that is leading some people in N to argue that N is a scale for modellers , but 4mm is a scale of collectors, not modellers. These people are involuntary collectors . There are a lot of them about - it could easily amount to a fifth or sixth of all those nominally in 4mm.

 

You see quite a few layout idea posts from people  like this, seeking an idea that might actually fit in the space they actually have. Since I've been dabbling in N , I've noticed that the "where I am and how I got here " bit at the start normally includes a reference to having tried N, concluded it was not for them , anjd having gone back to 4mm.  It's logical they would try N, but the existance of this relatively large number of people "blocked in 4mm" signals that for a lot of people N gauge really isn't the solution to their problem. If it was , these folk wouldn't be stuck in 4mm going nowhere. They'd be  modelling in N. But they aren't...

 

This is what I'm describing as people who "bounced off N"

 

I see this group as the big target market for TT:120 among those already in the hobby. Committed N gauge modellers are people for whom N gauge works, and I don't see them switching. We all tend to filter out what doesn't relate to our own interests - being in N you wouldn't necessarily register this group within 4mm very clearly.

 

The other group are those outside the hobby because they don't have room for OO. Again N gauge already exists , but that has not brought them in. Simon Kohler said that perople kept telling him they didn't have space for a layout - as the Hornby stand is only at large shows, N gauge would certainly be on display in the hall - but these -people hadn't bitten.   A competent salesman with no smasll scale product to offer would certainly probe whether an N gauge range might tempt them - afterall Hornby International is heavily . Bachmann may well have found something similar , given their venture into OO9. If youre a Bachmann salesman , yur immediate counter to "I haven't got room for OO" is to sell Farish. The OO9 range suggests that for many that wasn't the soluition. "The scale you like - in a version with tight curves that fir your spasce" seems to be thew OO9 pitch

 

This is why "the space saving is bigger with N" isn't a real argument. What these people want is a larger scale, but just small enough  to make it fit in the space they have ...

 

Whether 1/120 is big enough to make the difference is another matter. The models have approximately twice the volume of N and I think it does make a significant diiference

 

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The argument that there is more RTR available in N is simply not the knockdown argument that some folk think, if your starting point is "N gauge is too small a scale to satisfy me".

 

Respectfully I disagree. We have already witnessed comments to the effect that people will not engage with TT120 as a viable modelling scale until there is sufficient a range of models. I do not want to get into the issue of how quickly Hornby can (or will) add products to the range, but it is clear that the lack of range in TT120 now (and for what may be a considerable time to come)  is preventing some from entering the scale. Such a range does exist in N, it is substantial, supported by many manufacturers and absolutely will attract many potential TT120 modellers for whom that is an issue, not least because of the quality of what is being produced, which is comparable and in many cases better. Also, at 2.065mm/ft (I am talking British here as TT120 already is a thing on the continent and elsewhere) is actually less than 1/5 smaller as a scale than TT120 - noticeably smaller of course, but significantly smaller? For a small minority possibly yes, for most probably not and for a layout in terms of square footage it takes up a lot less space for a comparable Tt120 layout. So, there absolutely will now and for a long time to come be a significant number who if looking for a minimum/smaller space British layout will choose N over TT120 based on available range alone. 

 

The elephant in the room is that N gauge has been around for over half a century,  and its stretching things a bit to say that it still has a lot of unexplored potential . If people aren't in N now - then , allowing for a little slippage at the margin, they won't switch to N.  TT:120's pitch is to those who don't have space for OO but have already rejected N  , both those already inb the hobby and blocked, and those not in the hobby. If N was the answer for them, they'd already be in N. They are not 

 

Andy York's survey last year produced some interesting figures. Estimating the total share of 4mm is difficult since you could vote for mulitple options, and there is obviously overlap within the 4mm categories.But a figure of 75-80% of the hobby in 4mm at some level could be defended. If 1 in 5  of them are "blocked in 4mm" , you'd be talking about 15% of the hobby. That doesn't feel incredible to me. Persuade 1/3 of them that they can have a model railway if they move to TT:120 and you immediately have 5% of the hobby. A lot less than in N, but surely a significant number (I think Andy's survey found over 20% would consider TT:120?)

 

 

As a practical issue - when Cyrl Freezer drew 60 Plans for Small Locations he used 15" radius in OO pretty freely . That's no longer acceptable . Most OO RTR now requires R2 (just under 18") and 2' is the accepted norm in OO . TT:120 works with a minimum radius of 310mm - a shade over 12" , but equating to 20" in 4mm. At R3 and R4 in TT you have something as generous as the "scale" minimum of 2' in OO , but in the same real-world footprint as CJF's compressed postwar plans 

 

I also think some of those citing the limited availability of RTR in TT:120 are not in fact interested in adopting TT:120 . I could come up with a list of reasons why I wouldn't model in P4 or 7mm. But that's irrelevant:  as a committed OO modeller who might consider EM at a push I'm never going to model in P4 (and 7mm doesn't suit) . Both are niche scales - they don't actually need my buy-i9n.

 

Similarly TT:120 is a niche scale. If it achieves 10% market share I'll be astonished -and it doesn't need to to survive. It's entirely possible to have 60% of the hobby fiercely rejecting the whole idea, and 10% actively working in it , and that may be where we are heading

 

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...some, and likely a very significant proportion of existing modellers won't engage with the new scale at all. 

 

Will TT120 succeed and become established as a British modelling scale? At this point it is too soon to say for sure. What is abundantly clear is that Hornby have belief that it will and have a strategy to add products to the range for the next few years so they are giving it every chance. Personally I believe it will probably carve itself a place a place too, because the size will inevitably suit some as an alternative to OO or N and it would be wrong to suggest otherwise. However I can't see it threatening those established scales in terms of volume. If we could "fast forward" five years, I think that there is much more chance that we would see TT120 continuing to be modelled in Britain than not and with manufacturer's support.

 

Roy

 

My minimum position is that the "reasonable worst case scenario" (as in hire JCBs to dig mass graves) for TT:120 would have Hornby cease production in early 2026 having released all of Phase 2 , the J50, 37, J94, 57xx Castle and some other bits. There is too much momentum for it to stop short of that, even under the blackest scenarios. And track and a 66 would remain available

 

There would then be 3.5 years of volume production of a sizeable range of models. That's just too much stuff out there, and too many  people drawn in, for this to vanish without trace . Its inevitable such a supply will mean people modelling British outline in 1/120 scale for the foreseeable future. As 3mm reminds us - this doesn't have to be exclusively RTR 

 

That's the worst case scenario, not the most likely one. I think personally that this has done well enough commercially that some kind of TT:120 RTR will stay in production as long as Hornby Hobbies are around to make  it - the "Hornby's Z gauge" scenario if you like

 

The nature of TT:120s future is very much up for grabs. That it could simply vanish completely as a modelling scale is no longer possible, thouigh it is still possible it could be only marginally a commercial scale