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Early Risers.


Mr.S.corn78
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26 minutes ago, iL Dottore said:

... the original estimate of lethality of 10% was based on a limited sample of 100 infected of whom 10 died, then with a large population sample that shows 100,000 infected, then even with an 0.5% mortality rate this would still mean 500 deaths). 

Absent comprehensive or even randomized testing, the single digit order of magnitude for percentage mortality rate still holds for people who are sufficiently symptomatic to be tested. (It is ~6% of confirmed cases in the US presently, and 4% here in Oregon and 5% in Washington state.)

 

Nonetheless there are a no doubt a very large number of asymptomatic cases* who presumably keep this virus circulating until it finds someone more vulnerable who gets sick enough to warrant testing. After almost three months of shutdown (we're about 10 days shy of that) our (relatively stabilized) infection rate continues with no decline in sight.

 

* Demonstrably so in the Stanford study some weeks back, though I'm not sure what the false positive / false negative rate was for the antibody test they used. There have been questions about the false positive rate in some of those tests. Apparently more recent antibody tests are better.

 

Edited by Ozexpatriate
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Mooring part 2,

 

Ben the alarm clock Collie,  got me up 15 minutes early,  I think he was desperate .

 

A cool light northerly,  sunny to the south and east,  grey clouds to the north and west.  Damp and Misty. 

 

Having had a stroll round with Ben,  a change to plans, 

If the rain holds off, the first work will be to mow the main parts of the grass. It's getting long in places. Then to the plans in mooring Part 1.

 

Like il Dottore,  we bought a 1L fryer for our use,  the 3L fryer only gets used when the family visits..  I guess it has saved a fair amount of electricity over the years.

 

And so to porridge,  blackcurrant flavoured today,  tomorrow, the last portion of the porridge I'm not fond of.

 

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28 minutes ago, Ozexpatriate said:

Except that I didn't write "-30". ;)

 

Let's eat grandma!

 

GRAMMAR POLICE

TO SERVE AND CORRECT

 

You didn't write, you typed.. :D

Edited by TheQ
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52 minutes ago, iL Dottore said:


The second item of interest from today’s WebMD news alert is a “good news/bad news” sort of thing: Data are emerging that indicate that the coronavirus is probably much more widespread throughout the population than was originally estimated. Studies from California and elsewhere are showing that, in very large population samples, the actual number of people testing positive for coronavirus antibodies (ergo they have been infected) is considerably higher than what the official Government data suggests. The good news is that - if confirmed - this would mean that the disease is not as lethal as originally thought (one study has revised the estimate of lethality to about 0.5% - though these data need to be peer reviewed); the bad news being that even with a lower overall mortality, the disease still is going to have a serious effect on a very large number of people (in other words if, for sake of argument, the original estimate of lethality of 10% was based on a limited sample of 100 infected of whom 10 died, then with a large population sample that shows 100,000 infected, then even with an 0.5% mortality rate this would still mean 500 deaths). 
 

 

It probably is more widespread but it's pretty clear that it affects those who's health is either compromised by disease or age. I think it's inevitable that, absent a vaccine or proven efficacious treatments/pharmaceuticals, we need to open economies for business. What alarms me, in the US at any rate, there is no clear guidance being given to those who are most likely to succumb to this thing. My uneducated guess is that anyone over 70 has less than a 80% chance of survival.

 

Turns out the State of Florida has deliberately tried to suppress data, so who can we trust?

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13 minutes ago, chrisf said:

 

Flavio, I think I am guilty of reading more than there was into what you said.  "Wonderfully OTT" is much more like it.  As for boldness, I have a long way to go by comparison with some.   Not for me is the scanty apparel of those marching in the parade at Sydney Mardi Gras.  Pink speedos?  No thanks!

 

Chris 

 

You, Speedos - IMAGE ALERT!!!!!

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