The impact of Wishlistery

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

Has anyone else been monitoring what I now think of as the 'announcetorrent' of new introductions for OO, against the wishlists generated by surveys? With the two to three year lead time in model development, in some idle moments I have been working through the top end of the early 2009 'most wanted' survey: from which I abstracted the top 70 placed items at the time it was published. Why I picked the top 70 for the abstract? That felt like the cut off point below which the 'wants' became clearly low volume in terms of scale of interest, but that's just my opinion; someone else would likely have made 'the cut' in a different place.

 

Whatever, our merry band of manufacturers and commissioning retailers are actually making what 'we' (or at least those who made survey inputs) asked for. With the recent Dapol annoucement of working signals the combined effort is nudging half of the top 70 with a model introduced or announced. We are going to get Gresley non-corridors rather than LMS types; something that suprised me a little when Hornby announced, there is far more LMS/LMR traction suited to non-corridors than there is LNER/ER/NER after all. But the most wanted list put the Gresley types in a higher position...

 

So the message is, think carefully about any future wishlisting, because the manufacturers are giving it some attention...

[Allegheny1600]

Yes, I have also noticed this 'trend' and I must say that I'm very grateful!

I have filled in a few of the 'wishlisting' forms over the years and have only requested items I would personally like, where I happen to think such a model would indeed sell in large quantities.

It is difficult though, as what one person really wants, i.e. for example, 7 class 76 electric locos(!), may not be a common view. Ordinarily, I would have thought such a request to be quite unreasonable but look at the market now! How wrong I was in that regard!

What next? RTR NER or MR electrics?

Never say never!

Steam locos, I suppose are what should be considered more carefully and I believe this is where we modellers should attempt more joined up thinking i.e. the 'plot' to request a J15 over a J6 (my personal favourite!), maybe it will bear fruit someday?

Cheers,

John E.

[Guest Phil]

(snip)

We are going to get Gresley non-corridors rather than LMS types; something that suprised me a little when Hornby announced, there is far more LMS/LMR traction suited to non-corridors than there is LNER/ER/NER after all. But the most wanted list put the Gresley types in a higher position...

 

So the message is, think carefully about any future wishlisting, because the manufacturers are giving it some attention...

 

 

Whilst I don't deny the Eastern modellers their Gresleys at all, some LMS non-corridors would make a whole lot of sense in 4mm. Look at that whole plethora of tank engines available from the Jinty through the "Mickey Mouse tank" to the various 2-6-4ts - and that is just tankies !!!

 

I have voted LMS non-corridors every year, and would specifically prefer Period III push pull cars, would any would be good.

 

Chuck in an LNWR Radial tank and I'd be a very happy bunny.

[Kris]

Could this also be a reflection of an ever diminishing number of prototypes that have not been "done" by rtr manufacturers?

[S.A.C Martin]

Could this also be a reflection of an ever diminishing number of prototypes that have not been "done" by rtr manufacturers?

 

I don't think it is. How many locomotive and coach types pre 1966 could be modelled and legitimately carry BR liveries as well as grouping liveries?

 

Case in point, the J6 or J15. One or the other is absolutely necessary for anyone modelling the Great Eastern section or the Eastern region of British Railways. After those two, you could probably add the J27 and J21 in their place. LMS? I am sure everyone would chomp at the bit for a Midland "Austin" 7F or similar. The Southern's had a lot of exposure, but where are the Z class 0-8-0Ts or the S15s?

 

Maybe an ever diminishing number of "high profile" engine classes and coach types (think A4s plus Gresleys, B1s plus suburbans), but not an ever diminishing number of prototypes. There's so many potential classes in various forms it'll take a century to get round them all!

[kevinlms]

 

I don't think it is. How many locomotive and coach types pre 1966 could be modelled and legitimately carry BR liveries as well as grouping liveries?

 

LMS? I am sure everyone would chomp at the bit for a Midland "Austin" 7F or similar.

 

 

I'd much rather a Coal Tank.

 

Kevin Martin

[Pennine MC]

 

I'd much rather a Coal Tank.

 

Inevitable I suppose, that yet another thread taking a more intellectual line on wishlists turns into one itself before a page is out.

 

 

Maybe an ever diminishing number of "high profile" engine classes and coach types ... but not an ever diminishing number of prototypes. There's so many potential classes in various forms it'll take a century to get round them all!

 

Agreed that the potential size of the 'barrel, scraping for the use of' is huge, especially when rolling stock as well as locos is considered. But there's an interesting contra-effect at work now I think.

 

Received wisdom has been that the remaining prototypes will be progressively less desirable/viable, but I think to some extent those types come to achieve a prominence that wasnt previously there - once the lust for the 'big green and shiny' has been sated, they come out of the shadows. Classes like J6/J15/J27 are on everybody's lips these days, but I suspect a few years ago, a lot of folk couldnt name an LNER 0-6-0 if their life depended on it

[The Stationmaster]

I think we are also seeing another very important change. Hornby look for sales measured in thousands over a period of time, Bachmann probably take a similar (but slihghtly less ambitious in numbers terms?) attitude and so on. The 'commissioners' - whence some of these 'wishlisty' prototypes are emerging - are in a very different situation where their orders, including livery and some minor appearance variations max out at probably no more than a thousand and possibly as few as 500 models to cover the second mortgage or whatever that they have invested. Thus the whole economics of r-t-r have undergone a significant shift, probably aided by the 'buy-it-now-or lose-it' situation which has developed with, it seems, offshore manufacture to higher detail standards and the wish of manufacturers ti keep their inventory under tighter control.

 

In between these two extremes sit Dapol and Heljan with the former in particular showing more than passing interest in things the hobby has clamoured for but not necessarily always in wishlists. Heljan could could possibly be accused of studiously ignoring wishlists by aiming to produce the Modernisation Plan railbuses but at the same time they are more than astute enough to get a very good idea of what the market wants by talking to folk at exhibitions. Both of these companies are, I think, as much exploiting gaps in the market as they are aiming to fulfill the ambitions of the wishlisterati.

[Ozexpatriate]

Has anyone else been monitoring what I now think of as the 'announcetorrent' of new introductions for OO, against the wishlists generated by surveys?

 

So the message is, think carefully about any future wishlisting, because the manufacturers are giving it some attention...

Could this also be a reflection of an ever diminishing number of prototypes that have not been "done" by rtr manufacturers?

Surely it is the sum all of things:

• Traditional 'wisdom' by the manufacturers' marketers watching out for trends
  
• Private 'suggestion box' data collected by the manufacturers from their customers
  
• What has been done before (both well and not so well)
  
• Public surveys of what the market wants
  
• A night down at the local with industry insiders when after a pint or two someone says "I've got an idea! What about a xxxx?" (Err, not the traditional Queensland beverage)
  

Given that the wishlist surveys are pretty comprehensive and heavily influenced by what has already been manufactured, there is bound to be a lot of overlap between all of these factors - so much so that I don't think causality can be established.

 

You could say for example:

The survey said 'Hawksworths', and Hornby made 'Hawksworths'

but

The survey also said 'J15' and no one's taken up that gauntlet, though I think that's a matter of time.

 

I'm not sure it matters. Survey results clearly do not deterministically cause models to be made, though one presumes they are a strong factor. I think people participate in the surveys mostly for the fun of it.

 

Not to hijack this thread into criticism of a popular survey, but I'd like to see a way that a focus on small industrial locomotives could result in more nice ones being made. We had a thread on this a couple of RMweb iterations ago. The Sentinel proves just how popular this category is, and is largely overlooked in the 'big, named and not black choices'* that dominate the very top tier of the survey results.

 

* By the way I also like 'big, named and not black' choices, but they are well served.

[Karhedron]

Hornby look for sales measured in thousands over a period of time, Bachmann probably take a similar (but slihghtly less ambitious in numbers terms?) attitude and so on.

Hornby seem to aim for the slightly more glamourous prototypes at slightly higher prices whereas Bachmann tend to favour the more workaday subjects, obviously aiming for multiple sales. I would hazard a guess that Bachmann aim for higher long term volumes than Hornby and thus can sell at lower prices (compare the similar Std4 4-6-0s a year or two back).

 

Either way, the entry of Dapol and Heljan with their variety of commissioned offerings (in addition to their regalar ranges) has definitely gone a long way towards filling in some of the blanks in the wishlists.

 

Incidentally for those looking for LMS suburban stock Dapol published this picture a month or two ago.

 

http://a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/262341_238293902855032_214563285228094_913107_4305979_n.jpg

[Pennine MC]

.

 

Incidentally for those looking for LMS suburban stock Dapol published this picture a month or two ago.

 

http://a5.sphotos.ak...7_4305979_n.jpg

 

You dont say whether that's 2mm or 4mm, but it looks like the Airfix Period 2 inter-district stock that Airfix used to do in 4mm. Not strictly 'suburban', and not a new type to the market (again if it's 4mm)

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

... I'd like to see a way that a focus on small industrial locomotives could result in more nice ones being made...

And here you are poking at an aspect of the situation that interests me. Maybe MR's Sentinel commission will have opened the way on this one: a small yard shunting type from a private company has been made, and got a good reception. Hopefully good enough that those involved will more than recover their outlay. So it is possible that a small Manning Wardle, Leeds, Barclay, whatever, could also succeed as a model subject. Given that the resource to get these models made is not unlimited, which type would offer the widest possible application: numerous, widely distributed around the UK, ideally used in at least a couple of industries that offer 'popular' potential for modelling.

 

How do we get some effective focus on that?

[kevinlms]

The problem I see with such 'wish lists' is that there no standard to them. By that I mean if as per usual, the poll is on the 'net' there is uncontrolled voting and it could well be dominated by a small number of people voting early & often. Or worse a society or similiar encouraging all their members to vote. A society that might encourage its members to respect the spirit of the poll, could well be disadvantaged by others.

 

 

While it seems that many of the limited production runs seem to have sold well to date, how long before someone gets caught out by only selling a fraction of the run? Not because the model is no good (that could be another issue yet to come), but staturated as yet another limited geographically & era prototype, but the numbers appeared to be good enough.

 

 

Of course many of these models may well only need a comparitively small number of buyers, because they need several (you can't really have a layout with only one Class 76, for example).

 

I guess it won't be long until promoters ask for expressions of interest AND money up front. This approach is very common in Australia, but woe betide anyone who has 'production difficulties' spread over a long period.

 

 

Kevin Martin

[brossard]

 

You dont say whether that's 2mm or 4mm, but it looks like the Airfix Period 2 inter-district stock that Airfix used to do in 4mm. Not strictly 'suburban', and not a new type to the market (again if it's 4mm)

 

Agree they do look like the Airfix model. They are long in the tooth and very hard to find. I have several of these that I repainted/relined and did an underframe refurb. Kudos to Bachmann for releasing BR Mk1 Suburbans but we could use some LMS stuff. Someone mentioned Push-Pull - that is sorely lacking from the scene.

 

John

[Dave777]

Just to throw something into the mix - Hornby have to consider the train set market and what they can put into sets (and a variety of different sets as well). That's not something Bachmann, Dapol, Heljan, etc, have to worry about. I'm not sure how much that influences model choice, but it must factor in somewhere I would have thought.

[Pennine MC]

Just to throw something into the mix - Hornby have to consider the train set market and what they can put into sets (and a variety of different sets as well). That's not something Bachmann, Dapol, Heljan, etc, have to worry about. I'm not sure how much that influences model choice, but it must factor in somewhere I would have thought.

 

Pedantically, Bachmann do do sets (perhaps not many, but they do exist). My impression of a lot of Hornby sets is that they include anything from slightly mismatched to almost random mixes of stock, perhaps based around older moildings and/or what's been overproduced. Train sets are naturally not a field I've studied though, it'd be interesting to have other perspectives.

[kevinlms]

Just to throw something into the mix - Hornby have to consider the train set market and what they can put into sets (and a variety of different sets as well). That's not something Bachmann, Dapol, Heljan, etc, have to worry about. I'm not sure how much that influences model choice, but it must factor in somewhere I would have thought.

 

Lima seemed to manage quite well with simplified versions of some of their models, without the details fitted, or grotty couplers.

 

What is to stop Hornby continuing to reuse their less successful models for the toy segment, such as the recently mentioned 'Kellogs' van. Or old molds revamped, like the 'Thomas' range.

 

ed. Looks like Pennine MC, beat me too it.

 

 

Surely its more to do with sums. How much to make the molds & how many to make, determines price. At Margate, Hornby could & did produce quite small production runs using standard components, is my understanding. Nowadays with the international production, everything needs to be 'slotted in', using far less standard parts. Its a good thing that almost all models are far better than models of yesteryear, but the flexibility has gone.

 

As others have stated, its buy now or miss out.

 

Kevin Martin

[The Stationmaster]

 

Pedantically, Bachmann do do sets (perhaps not many, but they do exist). My impression of a lot of Hornby sets is that they include anything from slightly mismatched to almost random mixes of stock, perhaps based around older moildings and/or what's been overproduced. Train sets are naturally not a field I've studied though, it'd be interesting to have other perspectives.

I was in my local retailers shop on Thursday hunting for possible 'rarities' (his turnover is low and stuff which flies off the shelves at the big retailers tends to stick on his) and I came across a couple of Hornby train sets - literally 'train sets' as the only contained a variety of wagons, totally mismatched for period and anything else you care to name and obviously aimed at the person who wants some more wagons for his railway and is more concerned with numbers and, perhaps a colourful 'look', than with any sort of prototype fidelity.

 

Whether people actually buy such things is outside my knowledge but as Hornby make them and retailers stock them somebody in the company must think there's a market. Mind you this chap still has a 'Toy Story' set in his window at the original retail price, along with other items that are no doubt history for the box shifters.

[coachmann]

The illustration from Dapol does indeed show the old LMS Inter-district lavatory coaches, even down to the bogies that were fitted.

 

Regarding push pull driving coaches and trailers, the LNWR open saloon types I produced from 2001-2005 sold well considering their limited spheres of operation, but the standard LMS non-corridor variant I did two years ago was nowhere near as successful. This is by no means conclusive evidence that there is no call for such vehicles, but I do suspect that ordinally non-corridor coaches are what everyone says they want, but........

 

Apart from Bachmann some years ago, I dont think any other proprietory manufacturer has done LMS open coaches.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

Regarding non-corridors. I have made this observation before, that I got my entire stock of Bachmann's BR mk1 non-corridors in a single purchase from a retailer who asked me to check if the boxes were glued to the shelves. Realising there was a deal to be done and needing about the number he had for my then 'new layout idea', a good price was negotiated. He remarked at the time that "Everybody said they wanted them, but there was always something more attractive that beat them at the point of purchase". ( I then neglected to buy some s/h Farish LMS non-corridors from the same shop in good condition at a fair price, and have since never seen any remotely as good...)

 

With a few attractive models with push-pull driving gear like the Fowler 3FT, M7 and Mickey mouse available, push-pull vehicles should find some demand, or is that just too logical? It is a tricky market to read...

[Invicta]

As you say, you'd think the availability of some suitable driving trailers to go with the various push-pull fitted locos available (Not sure if Bachmann have done a p-p fitted 3FT, but I think they did with the Ivatt and Hornby certainly have released push-pull versions of the M7) would be every bit as much a no-braine, asproducing non-corridor/suburban stock to run behind all those LMS/BR Standard 2-6-4Ts etc- but it seems that in both cases it clearly isn't...

 

So is it simply a case of the manufacturers not doing joined-up thinking, or is there something in your and Coach's suggestions that non-corridor stock seems to be something that lots of people say would be 'A Good Thing To Have', but when it comes to the crunch, don't put their hands in their pockets to buy it?

 

This is a bit of a leap in the dark, but could it be that outside the sections of the modelling community that have a specific interest in coaching stock and correct train formations, or modelling specific locations/routes accurately, that a percentage of modellers are 'loco-centric' and aren't really fussed about what they hang on the back of their latest purchase- after all, if you approach it from that point of view, if you've already got a set of LMS coaches to run behind your Royal Scot, then you might not be that worried about buying another one to run with your new 2-6-4T...

 

Anyone got an idea of how the Airfix/Dapol LMS Inter-District coaches (From vague memory and without my Jenkinson & Esserys to hand, weren't they also based on a fairly rare prototype, only 50 or so coaches to that specific Period 2 57' lav design?) actually sold when they were current? Were they another item that appeared to stay 'glued to the shelves' like the Bachmann BR non-corridors? They'd certainly be high on my personal wishlist, but are we a minority voice?

[298]

Don't forget there's a difference between a wish list suggestion, and a good model that people will buy pretty much on impulse. I cant remember where a GWR City used to feature, but it took me all of a few seconds to decide to have one, and that's extra money going back into the hobby that otherwise wouldn't have been spent. I may even say that the Bachmann 85 and Heljan/Olivia's 76 may also have a similar effect, judging from posts on here.

[Dave777]

Yes, sorry, I was aware that Bachmann do sets (what I posted was actually a consolidated post as I'm trying to reduce the length of my postings, and I removed my mentioning of Bachmann sets!). I guess the difference is that I view Bachmann sets as being something they produce from whatever they have in the range, whereas Hornby - with a much greater eye on the trainset market - I suspect do actually factor in some specific trainset requirements when choosing models. Who knows. As I always, always, say on here - these people know far more about selling model trains than I do.

 

 

 

Lima seemed to manage quite well with simplified versions of some of their models, without the details fitted, or grotty couplers.

 

What is to stop Hornby continuing to reuse their less successful models for the toy segment, such as the recently mentioned 'Kellogs' van. Or old molds revamped, like the 'Thomas' range.

 

Kevin Martin

 

When you look at the cheaper sets you do indeed see old models being used. The thing is, I did mention the word 'variety' and when you look at just the first page of Hornby sets...

 

http://www.Hornby.co...op/sets/?page=1

 

...they produce a wide selection of sets for varying requirements and wallets (and that ignores the exclusive stuff that Hornby produce for the likes of Marks & Spencers, the big mail order catalogies, and so on). It's not all cheapo old stuff, and frankly, why should it be? I keep seeing harpings about getting youngsters into the hobby, and if the only introduction by the traditional trainset route were to involve low detail models designed 30 years ago then perhaps it's good that the very latest models also find their way into trainsets to capture the imagination and show how good it can be.

 

Now that I remember it, a good example of Hornby's 'one eye on the trainset market' approach would have been that unit they produced a few years back. Can't remember if it was the Pendolino or the Javelin (and even that may be wrong, I'm not up on my modern units at all), but I do remember at the time Hornby said it wouldn't have the very latest standards of high detail because it was being produced wth one eye (predominantly perhaps?) for being a model for a trainset. I think it was the Javelin.

 

 

I was in my local retailers shop on Thursday hunting for possible 'rarities' (his turnover is low and stuff which flies off the shelves at the big retailers tends to stick on his) and I came across a couple of Hornby train sets - literally 'train sets' as the only contained a variety of wagons, totally mismatched for period and anything else you care to name and obviously aimed at the person who wants some more wagons for his railway and is more concerned with numbers and, perhaps a colourful 'look', than with any sort of prototype fidelity.

 

Ah, that's probably a train pack as opposed to a train set...?

 

 

 

 

Shorter post approach goes out the window already

[The Stationmaster]

Ah, that's probably a train pack as opposed to a train set...?

What's in a name (but I do realise what you mean - however what was in the pack was a train, hence in my view 'train set')

[coachmann]

As far as plastic RTR coaches went at the time, the Airfix LMS Period II non-corridor lavatory coaches were a rather good representation of the the 'Inter District' coaches that were designed to run as three coach sets. In reality this tidy pattern was not always adhered to on the LMS and many of them were used as replacements for older lavatory stock. They were also mixed with non-lavatory stock.

 

Seeing as the elderly BR Mk.I non-corridor coaches have enjoyed a renewed lease of life, Dapol might find it worthwhile reintroducing the LMS non-corridors, if only in limited numbers.