Three further thoughts I've had since this morning:
- What's happened to Skaledale? Hornby were very much the market leader here and this spawned Bachmann's Scenecraft and Oxford's 'Buildings' range, yet it sank without trace in 2018's announcements. Instead we get 50 year old plastic scenery tat at laughable prices, which brings me on to...
- Which market segment is the Grand Suspension Bridge, ACME station canopy and fencing etc aimed at? Hornby have patently signaled their intent to abandon the kids market with the termination of the TTTE licence, and with no successor range yet mooted for that market. Furthermore, no modeller worth his salt is going to pay £20 for a 1960's platform canopy when a) they look terrible (especially when a £205 Duchess is parked up alongside) and b) they are available in good new/used condition for 25% of the price on Ebay. Surely the volume nor margin make these 1960's hangovers worthwhile? There is also a credibility issue here too - utterly confusing marketing.
- Focus on what you are good at. Hornby for me are the market leader in RTR steam-era coaching stock, and when they are good they are very good - of late see the GWR Colletts and Southern ex-LSWR rebuild non-corridors. Why then not commit to some new coaching ranges that can legitimately appear in eye-catching liveries and that can be hung off pre-grouping locos for the collector's and modeller's markets? Hornby are, for me, uniquely placed to mop-up here, given their track record and, dare I say it, quicker lead-times than Barwell. I bet if Sandwich put their minds to it they could beat Bachmann to market with some Bullieds, but what about some 1910-1930's coaching fleets that were long lived and could wear half a dozen liveries? GWR Toplights, non-corridors and a 'paneled' autocoach? LMS Period I stock? GNR/ECJS clerestories to hang behind Locomotion's Stirling Single and Ivatt Atlantic? LSWR Ironclads or Boat Train stock? There's a not-insignificant market here.
All that being said, and as has been discussed earlier in this thread, you do think the market has changed irrevocably and Hattons, to me, seemed to have nailed the required business model:
- To be the designer, commissioner, wholesaler and retailer rolled into one (think of the margins - both GP and NP - as compared with Sandwich!)
- To play on said luxurious margin and price very competitively
- To offer overwhelming choice up front and capture the vast majority of market demand (this then opens up more wallets, which maximizes revenue. Not to be macabre, but this is a shrinking market given demographics, and thus why hold-off a livery variant for year 3 when you have an existing customer base for it now? One in the hand is worth two in the bush...)
- To prey on the 'exclusivity factor' (once they've gone, they've gone, thus spurring pre-orders which de-risks financially and is excellent for cashflow. See most varieties of the GWR 14xx and the early period OO Warwells - you now cannot get them!)
- Finally, to be masters of PR and marketing with well-timed announcements, lead-times made of levity, well-communicated timely updates, and slick use of digital and social media. (This breeds credibility, customer confidence, and helps fill the order book).
Whatever happens, it's all interesting!
CoY