adb968008

I'm still behind the times, way behind. I have a mass of track on 4 levels, with each set of sidings, loops given a station name (sometimes pseudonyms to allow multiple regions to be covered), have a timetable (1500 trains in a "day" that takes me about 2 years to complete a day), shed rosters and distinct paths / routes (I have a regional route map) that services follow, even loading restrictions as some trains go as much as 24 inches difference in height during a journey on varying gradients 1 of which is silly, planned loco changes... Its a lot of Admin to ensure there are paths and platform capacity, but I love that part just as much as the shunting, as well as sorting out the inevitable mess when something causes delays, when something goes bump, time and timetable carry on. Scenery, thats for retirement when I've more time, today I want to play trains as I have to balance life between family and work too, having all the Admin above means I can restart the clock where I left off, as soon as I plug in the controller. I don't think there's that many new tools produced since 2010 that can hit the 20k barrier for production, I'm not so sure there were many before it either since 2000. I'd imagine popular ones like Thomas, Pug, 08, 47, Scotsman, A4, Merchant Navy, Black 5, West Country all pre-2010 but models like 71000, P2, Crosti, they've been heavily done but doubt they reached 20k. In these pages somewhere is a mention of 6000 USA tanks, which is seen as a massive success, and there's lots of them out there still. I suspect 3000-6000 is more the range now. However the points of your post stack up, no way would someone in the 1990's suggest doing Kestrel, Lion, DP1, DP2 and the Bulleid Diesels as a rtr model as the decisions would probably be made on a 20k+ production run. I suspect the statistics of the APT-E only stack up because it's a train of 2 halves joined together, not 4 distinct tools, thus doubling the production numbers. However that the costs of tooling for 3000-6000 is matched by sufficient market price to support this quantity is allowing us models to be made that was never before possible and that in itself is stimulating the hobby. The concern is that this is unicorns blood and each new tool reduces the hobby life by half, there is a growing pile of "limited" and "exclusive" stuff out there, which after release the left overs looks to be lingering on the shelves for years afterwards, obviously tieing up cash, reducing the return and delaying further investment. Some ready to run European stuff has been made in quantities of 50 per livery, with a production run of less than 1000, but at a cost of nearly £500 per loco and it's not brass !

Well I'm in my 40's, and there's no way I'm saying how much I spend a year, other than no figure suggested on this thread comes close. I bought my first loco (D824 Highflyer for £9.99 from Railmail c1981/2 paid by Postal order, so I've been a remote buyer since Christmas money from grandparents days). 45691 followed a year later at £16.95 and in 1984 I used my holiday money to buy a Lima 9400 for £10 spending much of the summer broke, but looking at it. Since then model railways has been in my life at every stage. So I don't fit the demographic, age profile nor spending profile being commented on above. Secondly, I rarely ever set foot in a model shop, I only have 3 shops that I know of, in a range of 30 miles from me. If a shop was in a mall I'd probably try to avoid it, as the prices are invariably unattractive at such locations. As for feeling special, well I have the million air miles and lifetime status, and the airlines do sit and take notice of you, but in model railways, I very much doubt any manufacturer (well there is one but I'm not engaged with them), knows I exist, nor probably care, which is the same for me, nor any Uncle Tom cobble and all. The retailers however are the ones who know, but even then I don't see Hattons, Rails, Derails, Kernow or Hobby shop etc seeing me standing above the crowd. Retailers with the muscle to commission their own tools have major benefits over manufacturers, they can tell what sells and at what price, not just by one manufacturer but all of them. Secondly, knowing they could have the mailing list to support the sale, they have the distribution, and lower commissioning cost overheads (no annual catalog, sales & marketing teams, extra HR etc), and finally when they sell, they are selling at a comparative RRP to other models, and so take not just a retail sales margin, but a manufacturers margin too. If we theoretically deconstruct a £100 RRP locosale: that could be £20 VAT, £20* retail margin, £60 trade. Then work back the £60 trade as £10 margin, £10 overhead, £20 tooling, £20 for the model. So a retailer going direct: £20 tooling+ £20 model+ £20 vat your looking at £40 margin*. if your lucky enough to hit the jackpot and do a repeat run, with the tooling fully amortised, your looking at a £60* margin (assuming the £ and China's'/UK's inflations hold out and you didn't borrow to finance it). Consider many models are sold with a 10-15% discount from RRP the retailers selling that loco not with £20, but maybe just £5 margin, it's not hard to see why going the commission route is attractive. Now on a £5 margin, how do you finance a £5000 p.mth retail space in Westfield when your customers know that ebay, mailing lists, Facebook etc all exist sending offers shipped from a warehouse if your price is £1 higher than theirs ? Lego and Apple can afford to do this, as by enlarge that competitive threat doesn't exist. In 2017, I'd wager the bulk of business is anonymous and online, as this represents the fastest, easiest and cheapest way for most people to pursue the hobby. It also is the most cost effective, as business can be a warehouse rather than a mall, If it wasn't there wouldn't be 100k items in the oo gauge category on ebay every day. I'd expect more manufacturers with the clout to be able to do this. How can Hornby combat this, well look at Rail's Q1.. 250 locos off an extra run of production, what "extra" did it cost Rails, an ad on RMWeb, a post on Facebook and an email to customers.. and 50% were sold with 48 hours at full RRP before the items were in stock. And Hornby, well a guaranteed low risk sale of 250 right off the bat shipped in one shipment to a single reliable retailer without any extra "tooling cost". This has to be an attractive way of countering the threat, and expanding this approach beyond NRM locos could well pay off. How can smalił retailers get a slice of this action, Perhaps a smaller shop could take the lead on a run and sell bundles to two or three others as a means to reduce the cost/risk but still get benefit ? - bit like Bachmanns rep's editions. * - I know there's other costs and I'm being simplistic, but this is just theory, roll with it.

look what happened to Model Zone, Beatties...

Back in the 1980's may be, locos today have all kinds of parts visible to the user but a joint invisible to the naked eye..I just took apart a Bachmann std 4 2-6-4t... into about 4 distinct parts of the body, including separating frames, tanks, cab roof and boiler, when assembled it was impossible to know it was comprised of so many bits... indeed I did have to wonder why as it's not got anything in common with other classes or variations within the fleet, The 3MT is another loco made of many bits. It's definitely possible, some DCC locos have switches hidden under body panels, especially in Europe.

They've already been there and done that. They have been closing their outlets at places like Swindon. If they can't make it work at the Swindon Works outlet there's not much chance anywhere else.Concessions aren't working either, I was recently at Hamleys in London, really nice display of Hornby stuff, but no one looking at it. Hamleys isn't a cheap shop either, so it's not as if railways were over priced in that particular environment. Scalectrix had some interest there though. I think the reason it doesn't work for kids, is it doesn't reflect reality and it doesn't reflect excitement. Racing trains isn't as exciting as racing cars. But even to 4 year old modelling mail trains isn't relative.. mail hasn't gone by rail for years. I'd figure tube trains with working doors, coal trains with loading hoppers (remember that triang one), container train loading, maybe even tieing up with other stuff appealing to kids... a Cadbury chocolate train might be a win win, if you can remove the parcels van roof and extract a dairy milk..they'll definitely play with that ! DCC and sound is lost on kids, but station sounds is something they can both relate to and maybe interact with too.. if a train stopping at a station triggered recordings (that maybe able to have the kids record sounds themselves) might appeal.. door sirens, approaching train sounds, horn, announcer "mind the gap" etc. Much cheaper and more relational than DCC sound.

I still don't see why companies can't manufacturer coaches with the frame in the tooling, rather than the roof. From an assembly perspective it's no difference, in fact it might be easier to fit a weight by dropping it in, covering with the interior and snapping together, than putting the interior in, adding the weight to the frame and trying to line it all up without it falling apart. It may even be cheaper when different diagrams of coach have similar sides but a different roof. But a removable roof could allow easier fitting of passengers, lighting and appeals to kids no end as they can "play" with some realism.

Mk3,s have that distinctive sound of air escaping a balloon, not sure what it is but you often hear it in multiples when standing in the station.

They need to finish the 84xxx and 32424 first ! Plus the overhaul queue is quite long :-)

It's here.I know it's not a new tool, but it's a nice release non the less, and my collection of NRM prototypes is growing. Is it me or is it unusual to see Hornby fitting the front end detail, rather than leaving it to the buyer ? Parts bag of headcodes and lamps.

The last few posts are an even split.. No wonder Oxford are taking their time. I don't doubt though, that after this first batch, there will probably be a large jump in price for the next batch.. lights or no-lights.

Maybe they should just do a poll on here.. Do you want them with lights, yes /no. Would you pay an extra (whatever) for them with light yes/no. To me lights is a big yes. I've been disappointed that Hornby appear to have dropped it (to the point I canceled buying the blue/grey rake and I'll keep my Bachmanns.). Not sure how lights will work on DC on the new Bachmann coaches, but if they will I'm in the market, if not, I'm not so sure.

Wages aren't rising because jobs are not being created. They are just being moved. So 100k Europeans people leave the country, 75k take their jobs, 25k jobs disappear as there's no demand, due to uncertainty 50k high wage contractors switch to lower paid more full time..net result wage figure averages show no growth. (Which means the tax intake Will go down, even though more people are working). Yes more people are working, but in general they are earning less and spending more. Then comes inflation at which everyone is a loser. How about trains, It's fairly clear there's been a mass amount of caution since Brexit all manufacturers cut back (Heljan hasn't announced any new oo tooling at all for some time, once the 47xx and 07 are out they've nothing new announced in the oo pipeline). There was an assumption post Brexit vote the pound would rebound, but reality is the pound is in long term decline with negative outlooks, as such again outlook is down. Rather than more new models coming, I suspect the 2nd hand market could end up swamped as people pay down debts. The hobby will enter the 1980's again, I'd wager the foreign companies will leave the market before the British ones do. Hornby will be here, I suspect others may not, Hornby may even be able to be acquisitive of toolings in this situation if manufacturers conclude the UK market is permanently done for them. As for Brexit, this whole negotiation in Brussels is nothing more than a stage show, no huge future deal will come from it as neither party really wants one, they are just playing to the cameras. Small deals on people etc probably will, but I expect the outcome will be a "leave it as is" arrangement as there isn't an alternative... EU decisions are always about kicking the can down the road, and the uncertainty hurts investment in the U.K. More than it does the EU, they can afford to stall and let us continue to bleed, the longer it goes on the more decisions will swing in Europes favour, as its got more certainty, sure after Brexit we may be better positioned, but we'll be economically poorer before it. As for interest rate rises... it's a loaded gun awaiting the panic, when the government is forced to defend the £, for servicing of its own debts and market /global confidence in the U.K. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday, a rise from near zero to 5% overnight will hurt less than a rise from 5% to 10%, and chances are they could get away with "a return to normal levels" with only damage to the housing market as a consequence (and damaging the housing market is government policy right now anyway) this be able to sustain this new rate going forwards.. the £ won't rise..it'll stay the same as stopping it sinking in a panic will be the reason for firing the interest rate weapon.. of course it hurts creditors with bad debts, but isn't those cash reserves what QE was created for ?

Here's the 1st picture I have found amongst the first (of about several boxes) of notes from my late fathers collection. (Author unknown). He used to manage Buckley Wells railway enthusiasts, which collected pictures and sightings nationwide in the 1960/70's that were sent to him for publication. The picture is much like the IRS one earlier, probably taken same day, so , it was probably an organised visit. It was in the November 1967 folder. I'll keep looking as there's tons more, a fascinating legacy to now have and many good nights readings but it may take me a little longer to find them than I thought.

If Asia kicks off, we've more to worry about than model trains. But in reality it's not quite Germany in the 1930's.. China hasnt got a sparring partner, people aren't threatened and it's not about land (as its seawater), if they took the shoals (they have already), but if they pressed to close the sea lanes (which would hurt their economies too), then there really isn't anything anyone local can do about it, not even if they all formed an alliance. China doesn't care about piracy or a bunch of sand banks, and neither does anyone else, it's oil under neath them they want, so whilst everyone stamps their feet, the Chinese won't do anything to close the seas, and so will get the oil they want... (and when it's gone, or none is found) most likely they'll cease pressing their claim again... The Americans have no real interest here so beyond sailing through it, they too won't do anything either and there's no population at risk. Put it differently, if the Chinese weren't making a claim, it would be US companies moving in to drill the oil, it certainly wouldn't be anyone local due to the sheer logistics and investment required of it...which is why the oil hasn't yet been drawn before. Personally I find it more concerning the WW2 battleships in the region have been raised and sold for scrap, including HMS Prince of Wales and Repulse, several Dutch ships have completely gone from the sea bed ! Due to their proximity to land. If the local navy can't protect its own shoreline, what chance have they hundreds of miles out in open sea ?

No Chance.There might be a lot of shouting, but China won't risk its economy to save North Korea. NKorea might be the protected spoilt child in the class, but if it needs a slap it will get one if they go too far, China will do it long before Trump threatens. As always it's not the "what" they are doing, that is the question but, why are they doing this ? .and why now ?... Almost always it's about food, money and recognition, once they get it, they'll put the nukes back in the silos again. You could almost treat North Korea like a typical unloved trade union, sulks, demands, strikes then compromise until next time. The real solution to North Korea is investment, in materials, manufacturing, trade and education, but first the rulers need to trust and overcome fear that opening up brings, but the fear isn't misplaced, after all most communist dictatorships' leaders end quite badly.. something the Chinese too are worried about still. China is the natural country to do this, but unfortunately China's interests are in countries with more lucrative resources to exploit.. Africa, SE Asia.. North Korea doesn't have much to offer (apart from potential Nukes to sell to US enemies, which is why they do what they do).

I'm thinking of a 705, remove the BR lion, and the cover the number with a works plate (remove the excess)...leave it at that.

On the P2.. i dont the story is finished there yet.. when you look at the Service sheet.. the chassis weight is curved to the angle of a streamlined smoke box, which the existing release doesn't have. The smokebox itself is a separate tool to the boiler (as I discovered when it came off). Similar too, the Star looks like it has clues to fitting Hall cylinders, bogies and front end tooling marks. If Hornby do a Saint from the star chassis and a Manor from the Grange chassis as starting points, and an upgrade of the County, they would be pretty much accessing tooling bits they have already (chassis, cylinders, wheels, tender, cabs etc) for much if it bar the body.. just sort out the paint and they could own the GWR market for not a massive sum... within a few years both a County and a Star will enter service as new builds, plenty of people have been requesting a Manor from Bachmann for years but it's a bit of an odd one out in Bachmanns toolset and would really be a start from scratch bar the tender. Long term a P2 isn't a bad investment.. someday 2007 may have as bigger crowded as Tornado did when it was new. The Crosti was a niche one, it's on its unique chassis too, that isn't compatible to the current 9f either, i wonder if this was initially thought to be a main range item, that got paired back in detail during the design, after all the new chassis is ok, better than the railroad one, and they have the super detail tenders available from the Britannias and 4MT ? Maybe some day they might bring it up to full super detail, but it's reception has Been well received, there hasn't been much discounting and by all accounts a success...more like this in a recession brings upgrade potential in the future, the new Mk1's FO/BSO is of note too...if only they hadn't dropped lights.

Not entirely convinced there, why buy the Lima tooling then bin it for new ones ?Bachmann took the risk going head to head with the Lima one, I'm sure they paid more for new toolings than Hornby did from Limas administrators. Now add in inflation, and Hornby has railroad Lima toolings, made from the most part by 4 large mouldings, that can be made cheaply, look OK and are most likely full amortised by now. Put another way, the last few years Hornby has done several Lima toolings, now with tts and sell out quite fast, and are under £80, often under £40 dcc ready..,When Lima breathed its last they were £40 then..20 years ago. Imho the two best investments in the hobby I'd say was Dapol buying the Airfix/Wrenn wagon toolings, and Hornby's investment in Lima.. both have done the test of time, and are still feeding cheap models to the market today, both were acquisitions via demise of the investor. I'd say that investment has done it's job.. making money quite well. To me the problem is the hobby is getting too stuck in the past..even "modern image" is 20th Century. Look at European modelling.. modern image is a wash with electrics and units. Piko is leading the charge here.. you can get a quite reasonable Taurus for £60, a 4 car ICE for £120.., even Roco die-hards are reluctantly starting to agree Piko new BR112 electric is streets Infront of Rocos older one, which is more expensive.

It's coming....

Not judging, but just to put a different dimension to this... Back in the 1990's when I was in a shop, my numbers and experience was broadly similar, though I'd say loco sales were in two hands, not 1. Obviously a new release puts a blip on the chart. (There was no DCC back then) and wagon sales were an even split between Hornby Bachmann and Dapol. Other wise nothing changed. But swapmeets were bun fests for discounting and clear outs, anything goes, and in the s/h world selling 50 odd items was an ok day, if you reached 100 items sold you know you had a good day. This summer I had to clear much of my late fathers collection, and after reconciling my wants vs duplicates in our collections I put up the balance to ebay.. I cleared 350 locomotives in 6 weeks. (I even got a mail from ebay saying I was in the top 10% of sellers in the oo gauge category one week). That 350 astounded me, as the price achieved was healthy, I cleared 80 on one weekend and it was Herculean having to wrap and ship it all, I had 1 single Intl sale (to Hungary), everything else was UK.... but clearly if the price is right the demand is there in 2017. As an FYI, and market indicator: A. 1968 items were sold in the oo gauge category of ebay 12:00 midnight Monday 11/9/2017-09:17 this am... 31 hours... B. 27 were above £130 (many of those included more than 1 loco, plus one was an LNER W1!) (9 "new" "buy it now"). C. 183 were between £50-£129, of which 35 were "new" "buy it now".

Reading the above posts it reads like... People demand top quality detailed models, but they can't afford the price after £130+. The demand seems to be there, but only for new toolings, after that it's a slow burn trickle. The stated new competition is individual retailers releases, these are large batch feast/famine models (12 variants then none). Hornby isn't catering to this market, so the fact they aren't competing to tool up a model and supply 3000-5000 models to one retailer in one go is their choice, they can't blame the market if they aren't in the race. At the same time, they aren't playing their own game in the same way either, they seem to make 1-3 variants, then pause, then some more etc etc, it doesn't sell out and it doesn't become rare*. Instead it gets dumped making it even harder to sell the next batch. Imho it's Hornby that needs to adapt, they can't expect the competition to play it Hornby's way. They don't need a catalog of 80+ different locos every year, small batches of just about everything. Similarly trying to flog dead horses isn't a good industry either, I really don't get upgrading the railroad B17 at all, it competes with their own super detailed model, which is being dumped below the rrp of the railroad one ! Similarly why Railroad is being bespoke loco Drive upgraded too has limited sense... the market is for kids and I don't think they care how it's motored.. a new one size fits all tenders worked in the past and could have saved Hornby a small fortune in the future..., and the important capex spending too. What made Railroad work in the 70/80s was due to it being models for kids, or slightly older ones who saw or recently remembered the big ones. In 2017 that's preserved steam, and EMUs, apart from Scotsman and Mallard I can't remember the last preserved loco in the Railroad range, as for anything modern... I'm glad to see the Q1 with rails as a limited release alongside the main range (and it's 50% sold in a weekend), more of this, on more existing tools, is much more efficient, more focused and caters to what modellers want.. it needs no capex, serves the larger retailers and takes on the competition.. 2018 is year of 1968 (everyone likes black 5's). I like shiny new tender engines as much as the next man, but when they all end in the discount bucket after 1 release (K1, Stanier Mogul etc), and the competition is nibbling on small tank engines below £100, then maybe Hornby should sweat its larger tender engine assets more with limited releases of specific numbers for individuals retailers, and focus investment on the same smaller tank engines (Fowler, Stanier 2-6-2t, tilbury tank etc all await), and more affordable EMUs at lesser detail for those keen, younger but less well off. * (peckett excepted as this is a new market).

One for the kiwi's to model.. http://www.nzrsr.co.nz/images/big_1355.jpg

I know of 4 liveries it's carried, the blue BCGB is correct for preservation (today) and historical. (I'm sure I've seen an old b+w of it like this). It was also NWGB (green with red lining in preservation), how correct this was in service I'm not sure, but it was green without lining.. http://www.irsociety.co.uk/Archives/36/AB_1927.jpg I recall it having a huge unpainted Andrew Barclays works plate declaring its works number as 1927 built in 1927.

With retailers going for the sub £100 tank engine market, the limited value in the black goods engine market and not much left in the large tender engine market, even "modern" image diesels are done... Maybe Hornby should focus on affordable, but not overly detailed, models in todays EMU centric world... Hornby have shown themselves capable of a Mk1 FO/BSO for £40, if they can put a railroad motor in it you could have a 4 car EMU for £200 ( £160 after discounting), with TTS for £240 (£190 after discounting).