Reorte

Scary.

Had my first one earlier this evening. Barely any noticeable side effects so far, although it sounds like it varies considerably from person to person.

Purely based on the case rates alone the evidence that lockdowns do work seems reasonably strong - measures come in, a week or two later cases start to decline. There's quite a lot of argument over just what level of lockdown achieves what effect - it may be the case that a very strict one confers little additional benefit, and a casual one may just impose a bit of hardship and difficulty with no impact on the disease.

IMO there's both a general aesthetic preference and a nostalgic one. I was born after steam ended on BR so I can't be said to have a nostalgic preference but the general BR steam colours I like (for locos; for coaches I really rather like maroon and aren't at all keen on blood and custard). A good example of nostalgia on the other hand is that I smile when I see a loco in BR blue. It's not actually a livery that I like at all from an aesthetic perspective (especially blue and grey - perhaps two tone coach liveries just don't do it for me), but I do like the sense of nostalgia from my childhood with it (BR ones I liked from when I was alive were the InterCity swallow and the two-tone Railfreight Grey).

Or a highly intelligent being who started off with followers in a region where it worked and expected his followers to work something out appropriate when they eventually reached situations where it doesn't, rather than having to spell everything out and micromanage them (i.e. not give the details for what's appropriate for every moon, planet, and space station humans might some day end up on). I don't believe it personally but I don't see any reason to mock it.

I believe they've got rules for how you should go about it in extreme latitutudes. edit: already explained I see. Should read to the last post before posting!

Interesting that the flares on the check rails are there despite the continuous check rail also in place, so I wouldn't have thought they'd be required. Standard components (at least for the crossing)?

Drawers, container ships... Funny how things are always the same no matter how extreme the differences of scale!

The timber sleepers are a bit of a surprise.

Thankfully my cooker doesn't have a clock, and the microwave just displays : if the clock is not set, so it gets left at that. Are clocks on radios normal other than ones that are explicitly clock radios? (got one of those to wake me up in the morning).

I agree, but it probably means he still had a really nice laptop that was in as good as new condition under the plastic!

The incline's still there, hasn't changed in the last few years, it's just the trees growing over it that make it hard to follow, but it's maintained and easily accessible. The bridge over the Goyt had quite a bit of work done over it a couple of years ago, deck lifted, paint stripped and re-applied; I managed to sneak a couple of photos of it with the decking removed and before it was completely shrouded in plastic for the paint removal. edit: here it is

My personal view is that I always want to get the aesthetics fitting for anything that's part of my day to day life where possible. All part of the little ordinary details that I personally find make a huge difference to quality of life when you add them up, even if they seem insignificant individually.

Got -4 on the forecast I've just looked at... think I'll take the few things I'd put in the greenhouse back in to the house.

Some buried near me, around the Whaley Bridge canal basin. They emerge from the canal transhipment shed into the tarmac, and at least some are still present under there (the top of one appeared in a pothole a few years ago).

Missed call from the surgery yesterday (they could've left a message, I only tried looking up the number to see who it was because it was a local one). Called them back this morning and it turned out that it was for an invite to get a jab, so that's happening on Tuesday. Pretty good going since I'm not quite half way through my 40s.

You settle the war by gauging the differences of opinion and then looking at them - are they really that far apart? I'll get my coat.

Noticing the spring growth season, I'll need to trim the moss with the odd blade of grass hidden in it soon.

Local (small town) car park has been getting resurfaced over the last couple of weeks, I walked past yesterday and noticed they've included a charger (looks like a BP one) whilst they were at it.

Probably not. Certainly not in the case of those who think it's all some bonkers conspiracy, that'll just reinforce their view. AFAICT there's reasonably broad support for the idea for international travel, but considerably less for having to have one to be graciously allowed to do ordinary activities.

Easing from today - that's not going to have a measureable effect on the R number yet! It's been clear that cases have just about levelled at the same number for the last few weeks (I've not seen any explanations offered, and too many reports seem to rely on older data for some reason - yes, they may be more absolutely accurate but it seems that the recent case numbers always track pretty well). The cases plateau has been going on for long enough now that it would probably start showing up in the deaths figure by now, and there's no sign of that yet, which suggests the vaccination programme is having a real positive effect.

I never said anything about instant, or the transmission being eliminated entirely, please don't put words in my mouth. But if the body can deal with a disease before it really gets established then it's almost as good as. The whole point is that vaccines can make very significant difference to how infectious someone is (in some cases to the point where it may be pretty much close to zero), just as your immune system does normally so you don't keep re-catching the same cold that's going around. If that wasn't the case we'd still be living with smallpox. It looks like Covid vaccines aren't quite that powerful but it also looks like they still have a fairly significant impact on transmission, which makes sense if your immune system can deal with it before it really gets well established.

Ever Gridlocked?

If that's how vaccines behaved we'd still have smallpox, and vaccines have effectively eliminated various other diseases locally, if not worldwide. In theory it's possible to eliminate a virus via vaccination, as that demonstrated. There are actually two diseases that have been completely eradicated, smallpox and rinderpest, the latter a disease of cattle. So whatever the reasons for some possible and others not I think the claim that vaccines only prevent or reduce bad outcomes is overly pessimistic. And I believe the evidence to date does suggest a reduction, if not to zero, of transmissibility with covid-19 vaccines. edit: which the post just above this one has already pointed out!

I think the production output is certainly a question it's reasonable to expect answers to. Clearly there are difficulties being experienced, and some level of those is to be expected. What isn't at all clear to me, and probably most commentators, is whether the levels of difficulties being experienced are excessive, few, or par for the course for this sort of production. I'll defend AZ because most of the attacks appear to be on the assumption that they're excessive, and that greater efforts could've reasonably been made to prevent them, and I don't believe that the critics mostly have any good reason for assuming that is the case. I'm also left wondering whether there was a situation that went something along the lines of "We'll be able to produce this amount if everything goes perfectly, which it almost probably won't." Under the circumstances is it better to strike a deal for the amount you have confidence can be produced, or to order more knowing that you probably won't get it all by whatever date? I'd go for the latter, because that's the one that'll get more jabs in arms quicker, which is more important than getting a much lower but more predictable amount.